CRASH LIQUIDATION BY ACCOUNT — CURRENT BOOK
Live IBKR account summary + positions + greeks · Tue 25 Aug 2026 01:05 SGT · corrected TIMS-race model (module_risk_cockpit): margin SHRINKS as prices fall, so liquidation is a race between NLV (falls fast) and the requirement (falls slow). Read-only.
What this page is
The exact forced-liquidation distance for your CURRENT book, per account, under a crash — the risk you carry today, and the reason the restructure de-risks first. IBKR force-liquidates when Excess Liquidity < 0 (maintenance > NLV). Two failure points per account: the IBKR liquidation crossover (excess hits zero) and the ~$100k PM floor (NLV drops under ~$100k, the account reverts from Portfolio Margin to Reg-T and requirements jump — the effective liquidation point for thin accounts). Both are shown flat / crash-vol: flat holds IV constant (impossible in a real crash, so it UNDERSTATES survival for this net-long-volatility book); crash-vol spikes IV with put skew (realistic). Read each as a range; the truth sits nearer crash-vol for well-hedged accounts.Main
VULNERABLE
NLV $1,736,589 · 3.9x lever
liq -30% / -33% · PM ~-34% / ~-37%
Joint
RESILIENT
NLV $823,618 · 3.6x lever
liq none to -95% / none to -95% · PM ~-44% / ~-47%
Neville
VULNERABLE
NLV $677,554 · 4.8x lever
liq none to -95% / none to -95% · PM ~-29% / none to -60%
Retired
VULNERABLE
NLV $395,525 · 3.4x lever
liq none to -95% / none to -95% · PM ~-21% / ~-25%
CRYPTO-ONLY CRASH — CRYPTO NAMES DOWN TO −50% (S&P / everything else flat)
The isolated crypto tail: only the crypto names move, the rest of the book (semis, index, AI, gold) held flat — the scenario that actually matters for your crypto sleeves between now and 31 Dec. Each column drops the crypto names by that %; a RED cell means that account's excess liquidity has hit zero (force-liquidation) at that crypto drawdown. Crypto names shocked (14): BMNR, BTBT, BTCS, CAN, CLSK, COIN, ETHA, GLXY, IBIT, IREN, MARA, MSTR, MSTX, SBET. Crash-vol (IV spikes on the falling names, put skew) is on.
| Account | NLV now | crypto −10% | −20% | −30% | −40% | −50% | crypto-only liquidation
(flat / crash-vol) |
|---|
| Main | $1,736,589 | $1,615,901 (-7%) | $1,499,017 (-14%) | $1,385,106 (-20%) | $1,273,103 (-27%) | $1,162,481 (-33%) | safe past -50% / safe past -50% |
| Joint | $823,618 | $769,595 (-7%) | $714,847 (-13%) | $658,942 (-20%) | $601,787 (-27%) | $543,514 (-34%) | safe past -50% / safe past -50% |
| Neville | $677,554 | $668,791 (-1%) | $661,825 (-2%) | $656,054 (-3%) | $651,029 (-4%) | $646,474 (-5%) | safe past -50% / safe past -50% |
| Retired | $395,525 | $362,058 (-8%) | $333,399 (-16%) | $308,655 (-22%) | $286,696 (-28%) | $266,667 (-33%) | safe past -50% / safe past -50% |
Read this first. This is a crypto-specific drawdown with the rest of the market flat — much closer to how the crypto tail actually behaves than a broad S&P selloff. "crypto-only liquidation" is the crypto drawdown at which the account is force-reduced; "safe past −50%" means it survives a 50%% crypto crash with everything else flat. Caveat on timing: this is an IMMEDIATE shock with today's hedges intact. A crash late in the window, after near-term (2026) hedges decay or expire, is somewhat worse — roll those hedges to keep this protection alive (the rented-hedge warning from the margin guide).
BROAD-MARKET CRASH — S&P-EQUIVALENT (every name by its beta)
Moves are S&P-equivalent (beta-weighted): an S&P −20%% is roughly a −55%% move in the crypto/miner names at their ~2.8x betas. NLV columns show the account's equity at each shock (with the % drawdown); a RED excess or a liquidation/PM crossover inside the scan is where that account gets force-reduced.
| Account | NLV now | −10% | −20% | −30% | −40% | Excess −20% | Excess −30% | IBKR liquidation
(flat / crash-vol) | ~$100k PM floor
(flat / crash-vol) |
|---|
| Main | $1,736,589 | $1,155,509 (-33%) | $637,921 (-63%) | $217,831 (-87%) | $80,637 (-95%) | $248,810 | $38,922 | -30% / -33% | ~-34% / ~-37% |
| Joint | $823,618 | $610,279 (-26%) | $403,252 (-51%) | $211,603 (-74%) | $127,956 (-84%) | $198,906 | $123,133 | none to -95% / none to -95% | ~-44% / ~-47% |
| Neville | $677,554 | $415,167 (-39%) | $246,051 (-64%) | $148,507 (-78%) | $142,325 (-79%) | $117,575 | $75,407 | none to -95% / none to -95% | ~-29% / none to -60% |
| Retired | $395,525 | $247,929 (-37%) | $141,072 (-64%) | $60,625 (-85%) | $28,432 (-93%) | $67,199 | $32,121 | none to -95% / none to -95% | ~-21% / ~-25% |
| TOTAL | $3,633,286 | $2,428,884 | $1,428,297 | $638,566 | $379,349 | $632,490 | $269,582 | |
How to read it. "IBKR liquidation" is the first S&P-equivalent move where excess liquidity hits zero — "none" means the account survives the whole scan (to −95%). The PM floor is usually the binding constraint for thin accounts: below ~$100k NLV the account loses Portfolio Margin, the requirement jumps, and it force-reduces regardless of the crossover. House margin hikes on volatile names in a real crash pull both ends closer. This is the current-book risk; funding each fortress to its max loss with OWNED hedges (ML ≤ cash, ~0.94x) is what removes it. See the Margin/Liquidation guide for the full doctrine.