| MARA price | $11 | $15 | $20 | $25 | $30 | $35 | ▼ $40 | $50 | $60 | ▼ $70 | $80 | $90 | ▼ $100 | $125 | $150 | $175 | $200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR price | $22 | $30 | $35 | $45 | $55 | $60 | $70 | $80 | $90 | $100 | $115 | $135 | $150 | $190 | $225 | $260 | $300 |
| MARA value | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $250K | $500K | $750K | $1.2M | $1.8M | $2.2M | $2.8M | $3.2M | $3.8M | $5.0M | $6.2M | $7.5M | $8.8M |
| BMNR value | $0 | $0 | $0 | $250K | $750K | $1.0M | $1.5M | $2.0M | $2.5M | $3.0M | $3.8M | $4.8M | $5.5M | $7.5M | $9.2M | $11.0M | $13.0M |
| TOTAL (MARA + BMNR) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $250K | $1.0M | $1.5M | $2.2M | $3.2M | $4.2M | $5.2M | $6.5M | $8.0M | $9.2M | $12.5M | $15.5M | $18.5M | $21.8M |
| P&L at expiry = TOTAL − $423K paid (add by Jun '27) | -$203K | -$423K | -$423K | -$173K | +$577K | +$1.1M | +$1.8M | +$2.8M | +$3.8M | +$4.8M | +$6.1M | +$7.6M | +$8.8M | +$12.1M | +$15.1M | +$18.1M | +$21.3M |
| P&L = TOTAL − $475K paid (add by Dec '26) | -$203K | -$475K | -$475K | -$225K | +$525K | +$1.0M | +$1.8M | +$2.8M | +$3.8M | +$4.8M | +$6.0M | +$7.5M | +$8.8M | +$12.0M | +$15.0M | +$18.0M | +$21.3M |
| P&L = TOTAL − $368K paid (add by Dec '27) | -$203K | -$368K | -$368K | -$118K | +$632K | +$1.1M | +$1.9M | +$2.9M | +$3.9M | +$4.9M | +$6.1M | +$7.6M | +$8.9M | +$12.1M | +$15.1M | +$18.1M | +$21.4M |
| P&L if reached by end-2027, add by Jun '27 | -$68K | +$37K | +$308K | +$800K | +$1.4M | +$1.8M | +$2.4M | +$3.3M | +$4.2M | +$5.1M | +$6.3M | +$7.8M | +$9.0M | +$12.2M | +$15.2M | +$18.2M | +$21.5M |
| P&L if all 500 + 500 bought now ($340K paid) | -$340K | -$340K | -$340K | -$90K | +$660K | +$1.2M | +$1.9M | +$2.9M | +$3.9M | +$4.9M | +$6.2M | +$7.7M | +$8.9M | +$12.2M | +$15.2M | +$18.2M | +$21.4M |
| Current book TOTAL: compare with the TOTAL row | $594K | $939K | $1.4M | $2.1M | $2.8M | $3.3M | $4.0M | $5.5M | $6.9M | $8.4M | $10.1M | $12.0M | $13.7M | $18.0M | $22.2M | $26.3M | $30.6M |
| MARA price | $11 | $15 | $20 | $25 | $30 | $35 | ▼ $40 | $50 | $60 | ▼ $70 | $80 | $90 | ▼ $100 | $125 | $150 | $175 | $200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR price | $22 | $30 | $35 | $45 | $55 | $60 | $70 | $80 | $90 | $100 | $115 | $135 | $150 | $190 | $225 | $260 | $300 |
| MARA value | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $250K | $500K | $750K | $1.2M | $1.8M | $2.2M | $2.8M | $3.2M | $3.8M | $5.0M | $6.2M | $7.5M | $8.8M |
| BMNR value | $0 | $0 | $0 | $125K | $375K | $500K | $750K | $1.0M | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.9M | $2.4M | $2.8M | $3.8M | $4.6M | $5.5M | $6.5M |
| TOTAL (MARA + BMNR) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $125K | $625K | $1.0M | $1.5M | $2.2M | $3.0M | $3.8M | $4.6M | $5.6M | $6.5M | $8.8M | $10.9M | $13.0M | $15.2M |
| P&L at expiry = TOTAL − $203K paid | -$203K | -$203K | -$203K | -$78K | +$422K | +$797K | +$1.3M | +$2.0M | +$2.8M | +$3.5M | +$4.4M | +$5.4M | +$6.3M | +$8.5M | +$10.7M | +$12.8M | +$15.0M |
| P&L if reached by end-2027 | -$68K | +$97K | +$298K | +$623K | +$994K | +$1.3M | +$1.7M | +$2.4M | +$3.1M | +$3.8M | +$4.6M | +$5.6M | +$6.4M | +$8.7M | +$10.8M | +$12.9M | +$15.1M |
| P&L if all 500 + 500 bought now ($340K paid) | -$340K | -$340K | -$340K | -$90K | +$660K | +$1.2M | +$1.9M | +$2.9M | +$3.9M | +$4.9M | +$6.2M | +$7.7M | +$8.9M | +$12.2M | +$15.2M | +$18.2M | +$21.4M |
| Current book TOTAL: compare with the TOTAL row | $594K | $939K | $1.4M | $2.1M | $2.8M | $3.3M | $4.0M | $5.5M | $6.9M | $8.4M | $10.1M | $12.0M | $13.7M | $18.0M | $22.2M | $26.3M | $30.6M |
| BTC $200k (2.6x) | BTC $300k (3.9x) | BTC $400k (5.2x) | BTC $600k (7.8x) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBIT calls at expiry, after interest on the freed cash | +$594k | +$2.28M | +$3.97M | +$7.34M |
| Holding the 10 BTC instead | +$1.23M | +$2.23M | +$3.23M | +$5.23M |
| Name | Spot | Covered | Weekly (Nov 6 '26) | Bid / ask | Delta | Out of the money | Implied vol | Last 12 months realized | Per week | Weeks sold to end-2027 | Next earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARA | $6.77 | 125 | 8C | $0.08 / $0.10 | 0.18 | 18% | 115% | 85% | $1k | 56 of 61 | 2026-11-04 |
| BMNR | $20.15 | 62 | 22.5C | $0.19 / $0.21 | 0.18 | 12% | 79% | 76% | $1k | 56 of 61 | 2026-11-20 |
| IBIT | $43.36 | 75 | 46C | $0.23 / $0.25 | 0.18 | 6% | 43% | 47% | $2k | 61 of 61 | none |
| MARA + BMNR | IBIT | Whole sleeve | What it means | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium at the bid, per month | $9k | $8k | $17k | before earnings weeks are skipped |
| Book basis, per month | $2k | $2k | $5k | gross on the weeks sold x your trade-tape keep and the INCOME_BOOK ratio (37%), less commissions ($730 + $319) |
| Ceiling to end-2027 | $122k | $105k | $227k | every call sold expires worthless |
| Last 12 months, real path | +$84k | +$17k | +$101k | MARA $18 to $7, BMNR $47 to $20, IBIT down 30%: a falling year, the best case for selling calls |
| No view, to end-2027 (typical / expected) | +$4k / -$15k | +$11k / +$3k | +$15k / -$12k | about break-even: the premium pays for the rally weeks |
| No view at last year's vol, expected | +$31k | -$31k | +$0k | MARA realized 85% vs 115% implied (a volatility premium); IBIT 47% vs 43% (none) |
| Prices halve (typical / expected) | +$5k / -$12k | +$25k / +$21k | +$30k / +$9k | a small cushion, not a hedge |
| Rally path (typical / expected) | -$125k / -$320k | -$52k / -$75k | -$177k / -$395k | MARA / BMNR: IDEAL ($40 / $70 by end-2027), 1-in-10 bad -$840k; IBIT: BTC doubles by end-2027, 1-in-10 bad -$205k |
| One rally week (+25% / +50% / +100%) | +$7k / -$15k / -$51k | -$33k / -$78k / -$146k | -$26k / -$93k / -$197k | the short calls' loss net of the long calls' gain that week, every name at once |
| Path to 31 Dec 2027 | Sleeve P&L (calls' value left − cost) | Weekly calls typical | Sleeve + calls typical | Weekly calls expected | Sleeve + calls expected | Weekly calls 1-in-10 bad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prices halve | -$196k | +$5k | -$192k | -$12k | -$208k | -$79k |
| Prices flat | -$132k | +$4k | -$128k | -$15k | -$147k | -$86k |
| IDEAL: MARA $40 / BMNR $70 by end-2027 | +$2.40M | -$125k | +$2.27M | -$320k | +$2.08M | -$840k |
| IBIT: BTC halves | -$124k | +$25k | -$99k | +$21k | -$103k | -$11k |
| IBIT: BTC flat | -$100k | +$11k | -$89k | +$3k | -$97k | -$52k |
| IBIT: BTC doubles by end-2027 | +$349k | -$52k | +$297k | -$75k | +$274k | -$205k |
cd _md_files/portfolio/2026-10-30_crypto_sleeve && python3 gen_sleeve.py, then deploy_cf.sh.