FORTRESS FIGHT: AMD @ $465.73

BE SS: $489.91 | CC-SS: $501.37 | 2 contracts (200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMD @ $465.73 UNDERWATER $24.18 (4.9% below BE SS)

2 contracts (200 sh) | BE SS: $489.91 | CC-SS: $501.37 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $420 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $187.552/sh)

SP: $490 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $126.775/sh)

HP: $350 exp 2026-11-20 (entry $9.047/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,964	(ND $69.82 + SW $140) x 200
Normal income ref	$7,423/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$506/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-7,024	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,711/mo

HEDGE COVER
$506/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$7,423/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $13,964

ML VELOCITY
5.7 mo to earn back $41,964

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $501.37 (probe: $500C 14d) still earns $2,593/mo (35% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-08-14; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-08-14

Hole (after banked)

$7,024

was $7,024 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$531

? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
2x $475C 4 Sep 2026	U13190865	$2.65	$531	2026-09-02

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 44 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 36 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $583.16 (+25%) · daily UBB $504.14 · 1-wk expected move ±$29 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-03: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $501.37 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 2 × $505 2 Oct 2026 (28d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $505)

75%

Touch odds

52%

Per cycle

$1,810

Income / mo

$1,939

🎯 Recommended · sell 2 × $510 25 Sep 2026 (21d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $510)

80%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$1,420

Income / mo

$2,029

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$509	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.12/sh	+$224 cycle +$1,644 [-$177…+$338] · 54% credit	66% surv 51%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$510	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.78/sh	+$156 cycle +$1,576 [-$254…+$261] · 46% credit	66% surv 52%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$529	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$6.84/sh	-$1,367 cycle +$53 [-$2,026…-$1,396] · 1% credit	74% surv 67%
budget: banked $1,420 debit $1,367 (96% used ≈ 2.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,518/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 2 × $550 2 Oct 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $550)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$760

Income / mo

$814

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (54 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 54 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.004 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,157 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,221

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$482.50	5d	9 Sep 2026	$3.35	2/2	$4,020	$3,514	78%	82%	+$1,601	-$3,104	22.2%	$-2,971 (vs do-nothing $-1,750)
$487.50	7d	11 Sep 2026	$4.50	2/2	$3,857	$3,351	78%	82%	+$1,490	-$1,874	13.4%	$-1,741 (vs do-nothing $-520)
$485	7d	11 Sep 2026	$5.15	2/2	$4,414	$3,908	75%	80%	+$1,643	-$2,244	16.1%	$-2,111 (vs do-nothing $-890)
$480	5d	9 Sep 2026	$3.90	2/2	$4,680	$4,174	75%	80%	+$1,699	-$3,494	25.0%	$-3,361 (vs do-nothing $-2,140)
$482.50	7d	11 Sep 2026	$5.70	2/2	$4,886	$4,379	73%	79%	+$1,648	-$2,634	18.9%	$-2,501 (vs do-nothing $-1,280)
$477.50	5d	9 Sep 2026	$4.70	2/2	$5,640	$5,134	71%	78%	+$1,985	-$3,834	27.5%	$-3,701 (vs do-nothing $-2,480)
$487.50	14d	18 Sep 2026	$9.15	2/2	$3,921	$3,415	71%	77%	+$1,168	-$944	6.8%	$-811 (vs do-nothing +$410)
$480	7d	11 Sep 2026	$6.45	2/2	$5,529	$5,022	70%	77%	+$1,757	-$2,984	21.4%	$-2,851 (vs do-nothing $-1,630)
$485	14d	18 Sep 2026	$9.90	2/2	$4,243	$3,736	69%	76%	+$1,210	-$1,294	9.3%	$-1,161 (vs do-nothing +$60)
$475	5d	9 Sep 2026	$5.45	2/2	$6,540	$6,034	67%	76%	+$2,083	-$4,184	30.0%	$-4,051 (vs do-nothing $-2,830)
$477.50	7d	11 Sep 2026	$7.25	2/2	$6,214	$5,708	67%	75%	+$1,835	-$3,324	23.8%	$-3,191 (vs do-nothing $-1,970)
$482.50	14d	18 Sep 2026	$10.75	2/2	$4,607	$4,101	67%	75%	+$1,271	-$1,624	11.6%	$-1,491 (vs do-nothing $-270)
$480	14d	18 Sep 2026	$11.60	2/2	$4,971	$4,465	65%	74%	+$1,307	-$1,954	14.0%	$-1,821 (vs do-nothing $-600)

Show 41 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$475	7d	11 Sep 2026	$8.15	2/2	$6,986	$6,479	64%	74%	+$1,921	-$3,644	26.1%	$-3,511 (vs do-nothing $-2,290)
$480	21d	25 Sep 2026	$14.65	2/2	$4,186	$3,679	63%	74%	+$1,063	-$1,344	9.6%	$-1,211 (vs do-nothing +$10)
$472.50	5d	9 Sep 2026	$6.25	1/2	$3,750	$4,624	63%	73%	+$1,050	-$2,262	16.2%	$-2,806 (vs do-nothing $-1,585)
$477.50	14d	18 Sep 2026	$12.55	2/2	$5,379	$4,872	63%	73%	+$1,359	-$2,264	16.2%	$-2,131 (vs do-nothing $-910)
$475	10d	14 Sep 2026	$6.70	2/2	$4,020	$3,514	62%	72%	$-235	-$3,934	28.2%	$-3,801 (vs do-nothing $-2,580)
$475	12d	16 Sep 2026	$8.10	2/2	$4,050	$3,544	61%	71%	$-303	-$3,654	26.2%	$-3,521 (vs do-nothing $-2,300)
$472.50	7d	11 Sep 2026	$9.10	1/2	$3,900	$4,774	60%	72%	+$984	-$1,977	14.2%	$-2,521 (vs do-nothing $-1,300)
$475	14d	18 Sep 2026	$13.50	2/2	$5,786	$5,279	60%	72%	+$1,383	-$2,574	18.4%	$-2,441 (vs do-nothing $-1,220)
$475	21d	25 Sep 2026	$16.25	2/2	$4,643	$4,136	59%	72%	+$985	-$2,024	14.5%	$-1,891 (vs do-nothing $-670)
$470	5d	9 Sep 2026	$7.25	1/2	$4,350	$5,224	59%	71%	+$1,102	-$2,412	17.3%	$-2,956 (vs do-nothing $-1,735)
$475	28d	2 Oct 2026	$18.70	2/2	$4,007	$3,501	59%	70%	+$445	-$1,534	11.0%	$-1,401 (vs do-nothing $-180)
$472.50	14d	18 Sep 2026	$14.55	2/2	$6,236	$5,729	58%	71%	+$1,420	-$2,864	20.5%	$-2,731 (vs do-nothing $-1,510)
$470	7d	11 Sep 2026	$10.15	1/2	$4,350	$5,224	57%	70%	+$1,007	-$2,122	15.2%	$-2,666 (vs do-nothing $-1,445)
$470	10d	14 Sep 2026	$9.20	2/2	$5,520	$5,014	57%	69%	+$114	-$4,434	31.8%	$-4,301 (vs do-nothing $-3,080)
$470	12d	16 Sep 2026	$10.10	2/2	$5,050	$4,544	56%	68%	$-288	-$4,254	30.5%	$-4,121 (vs do-nothing $-2,900)
$470	14d	18 Sep 2026	$15.70	2/2	$6,729	$6,222	56%	70%	+$1,470	-$3,134	22.4%	$-3,001 (vs do-nothing $-1,780)
$470	21d	25 Sep 2026	$18.25	2/2	$5,214	$4,708	56%	70%	+$958	-$2,624	18.8%	$-2,491 (vs do-nothing $-1,270)
$470	28d	2 Oct 2026	$20.85	2/2	$4,468	$3,961	55%	69%	+$453	-$2,104	15.1%	$-1,971 (vs do-nothing $-750)
$467.50	5d	9 Sep 2026	$8.40	1/2	$5,040	$5,914	54%	69%	+$1,162	-$2,547	18.2%	$-3,091 (vs do-nothing $-1,870)
$467.50	7d	11 Sep 2026	$11.30	1/2	$4,843	$5,716	54%	69%	+$1,030	-$2,257	16.2%	$-2,801 (vs do-nothing $-1,580)
$467.50	14d	18 Sep 2026	$16.90	2/2	$7,243	$6,736	53%	69%	+$1,510	-$3,394	24.3%	$-3,261 (vs do-nothing $-2,040)
$465	28d	2 Oct 2026	$23.15	2/2	$4,961	$4,454	52%	67%	+$450	-$2,644	18.9%	$-2,511 (vs do-nothing $-1,290)
$465	21d	25 Sep 2026	$21.10	2/2	$6,029	$5,522	52%	68%	+$1,107	-$3,054	21.9%	$-2,921 (vs do-nothing $-1,700)
$465	14d	18 Sep 2026	$18.05	1/2	$3,868	$4,741	51%	68%	+$748	-$1,832	13.1%	$-2,376 (vs do-nothing $-1,155)
$465	12d	16 Sep 2026	$12.50	2/2	$6,250	$5,744	51%	66%	$-233	-$4,774	34.2%	$-4,641 (vs do-nothing $-3,420)
$465	10d	14 Sep 2026	$13.65	1/2	$4,095	$4,969	50%	68%	+$708	-$2,272	16.3%	$-2,816 (vs do-nothing $-1,595)
$465	7d	11 Sep 2026	$12.70	1/2	$5,443	$6,316	50%	67%	+$1,116	-$2,367	17.0%	$-2,911 (vs do-nothing $-1,690)
$465	5d	9 Sep 2026	$9.60	1/2	$5,760	$6,634	50%	67%	+$1,166	-$2,677	19.2%	$-3,221 (vs do-nothing $-2,000)
$460	28d	2 Oct 2026	$25.60	2/2	$5,486	$4,979	49%	66%	+$436	-$3,154	22.6%	$-3,021 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$462.50	14d	18 Sep 2026	$19.30	1/2	$4,136	$5,009	49%	67%	+$746	-$1,957	14.0%	$-2,501 (vs do-nothing $-1,280)
$460	21d	25 Sep 2026	$23.20	2/2	$6,629	$6,122	48%	66%	+$975	-$3,634	26.0%	$-3,501 (vs do-nothing $-2,280)
$462.50	7d	11 Sep 2026	$13.80	1/2	$5,914	$6,788	47%	66%	+$1,028	-$2,507	18.0%	$-3,051 (vs do-nothing $-1,830)
$460	14d	18 Sep 2026	$20.70	1/2	$4,436	$5,309	46%	66%	+$760	-$2,067	14.8%	$-2,611 (vs do-nothing $-1,390)
$460	12d	16 Sep 2026	$14.85	1/2	$3,712	$4,586	45%	64%	$-184	-$2,652	19.0%	$-3,196 (vs do-nothing $-1,975)
$462.50	5d	9 Sep 2026	$10.95	1/2	$6,570	$7,444	45%	65%	+$1,174	-$2,792	20.0%	$-3,336 (vs do-nothing $-2,115)
$460	10d	14 Sep 2026	$15.45	1/2	$4,635	$5,509	44%	64%	+$452	-$2,592	18.6%	$-3,136 (vs do-nothing $-1,915)
$457.50	14d	18 Sep 2026	$22.10	1/2	$4,736	$5,609	44%	65%	+$758	-$2,177	15.6%	$-2,721 (vs do-nothing $-1,500)
$460	7d	11 Sep 2026	$15.35	1/2	$6,579	$7,452	43%	64%	+$1,088	-$2,602	18.6%	$-3,146 (vs do-nothing $-1,925)
$460	5d	9 Sep 2026	$12.40	1/2	$7,440	$8,314	40%	63%	+$1,155	-$2,897	20.7%	$-3,441 (vs do-nothing $-2,220)
$457.50	7d	11 Sep 2026	$16.75	1/2	$7,179	$8,052	40%	63%	+$1,039	-$2,712	19.4%	$-3,256 (vs do-nothing $-2,035)
$457.50	5d	9 Sep 2026	$14.05	1/2	$8,430	$9,304	36%	62%	+$1,172	-$2,982	21.4%	$-3,526 (vs do-nothing $-2,305)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 2 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-04 21:36