FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

43 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 6 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 1 underwater (not deep DD) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 2 uncapped above water | 26 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $38,314/mo (52% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $3,045/mo · plus $2,029/mo CC-safe on 1 shallow row(s) ⓘ ⚠ 2 negative E[net]
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $644,697 locked in if all 8 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 2 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
APP ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	1	$312.23	$608.96	—	1 × $342.50 11 Sep (7d) $85 cyc · $364/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 13%	🎯 1 × $332.50 11 Sep (7d) $220 cyc · $943/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 31%	1 × $325 11 Sep (7d) $340 cyc · $1,457/mo 72% survhist 84% · T:57%hist 43%	1 × $315 11 Sep (7d) $680 cyc · $2,914/mo 56% survhist 69% · T:90%hist 79%	$2,111	-$27,426 (214.3% IC)	95.0%
INTC ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$92.98	$116.84	5 × $119 11 Sep (7d) $5 cyc · $21/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 2%	5 × $103 11 Sep (7d) $250 cyc · $1,071/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13%	🎯 5 × $101 11 Sep (7d) $365 cyc · $1,564/mo 87% survhist 86% · T:27%hist 26%	5 × $98 11 Sep (7d) $650 cyc · $2,786/mo 76% survhist 84% · T:49%hist 38%	5 × $95 11 Sep (7d) $1,130 cyc · $4,843/mo 62% survhist 66% · T:77%hist 65%	$3,072	-$7,556 (52.1% IC)	25.7%
IREN-LC45 ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	20	$41.74	$58.37	20 × $60 18 Sep (14d) $140 cyc · $300/mo 98% survhist 96% · T:4%hist 2%	20 × $48 11 Sep (7d) $420 cyc · $1,800/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13%	🎯 19 × $46 11 Sep (7d) $798 cyc · $3,420/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 31%	15 × $44 11 Sep (7d) $1,275 cyc · $5,464/mo 72% survhist 84% · T:59%hist 43%	15 × $42 11 Sep (7d) $2,400 cyc · $10,286/mo 54% survhist 69% · T:95%hist 89%	$4,519	-$22,701 (378.4% IC)	39.8%
IREN-LC50 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	20	$41.74	$66.80	20 × $65 18 Sep (14d) $40 cyc · $86/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:0%hist 2%	20 × $48 11 Sep (7d) $420 cyc · $1,800/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13%	🎯 19 × $46 11 Sep (7d) $798 cyc · $3,420/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 31%	15 × $44 11 Sep (7d) $1,275 cyc · $5,464/mo 72% survhist 84% · T:59%hist 43%	15 × $42 11 Sep (7d) $2,400 cyc · $10,286/mo 54% survhist 69% · T:95%hist 89%	$3,124	-$38,715 (282.6% IC)	60.0%
SPCX ↗ ▼ DOWN -1.3% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	5	$149.81	$189.28	5 × $190 2 Oct (28d) $385 cyc · $412/mo 95% survhist 96% · T:11%hist 13%	5 × $165 11 Sep (7d) $310 cyc · $1,329/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13%	🎯 5 × $160 11 Sep (7d) $590 cyc · $2,529/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:34%hist 31%	5 × $157.50 11 Sep (7d) $825 cyc · $3,536/mo 77% survhist 84% · T:46%hist 38%	5 × $152.50 11 Sep (7d) $1,550 cyc · $6,643/mo 62% survhist 66% · T:79%hist 65%	$3,445	-$14,049 (104.1% IC)	26.3%
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
AMD ↗ Neville:0865 · Next Fri	2	$465.73	$501.37	🎯 2 × $510 25 Sep (21d) $1,420 cyc · $2,029/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:41%hist 38% above floor +$1,726 · hole 3.5mo	2 × $510 11 Sep (7d) $284 cyc · $1,217/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13% above floor +$1,726 · hole 5.9mo	2 × $495 11 Sep (7d) $620 cyc · $2,657/mo 84% survhist 86% · T:33%hist 31% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 2.7mo	2 × $487.50 11 Sep (7d) $900 cyc · $3,857/mo 78% survhist 84% · T:46%hist 38% locks −$1,874 · hole 1.8mo	2 × $472.50 11 Sep (7d) $1,820 cyc · $7,800/mo 60% survhist 66% · T:81%hist 79% locks −$3,954 · hole 0.9mo	-	+$1,726 whole if assigned	7.7% whole ~19 Dec on 🎯
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
ETHA Main:1299	50	$18.49	$17.33 BE	+6.7% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
SPY Neville:0865	12	$772.68	$764.00 BE	+1.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri	125	$26.25	$34.50	125 × $35 18 Sep (14d) $125 cyc · $268/mo 97% survhist 96% · T:6%hist 2%	125 × $32 18 Sep (14d)alt tenor $1,125 cyc · $2,411/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 13%	104 × $28 11 Sep (7d) $3,016 cyc · $12,926/mo 74% survhist 84% · T:54%hist 43%	🎯 75 × $27 11 Sep (7d) $4,575 cyc · $19,607/mo 62% survhist 66% · T:78%hist 65%	118 × $26.50 11 Sep (7d) $9,086 cyc · $38,940/mo 56% survhist 69% · T:93%hist 89%	$4,837	-$51,701 (187.2% IC)	31.4%
TOTAL (7)	178	following every 🎯 $8,766 cyc · $33,511/mo		$2,115 cyc · $3,116/mo 6 of 7	$2,894 cyc · $9,992/mo	$6,407 cyc · $27,459/mo	$9,840 cyc · $42,171/mo	$19,066 cyc · $81,711/mo	$21,107	-$162,149

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$509	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.12/sh	+$224 cycle +$1,644 [-$177…+$338] · 54% credit	66% surv 51%	+$3,363 SAFE cap gain +$10,387
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$510	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.78/sh	+$156 cycle +$1,576 [-$254…+$261] · 46% credit	66% surv 52%	+$3,442 SAFE cap gain +$10,466
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$529	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$6.84/sh	-$1,367 cycle +$53 [-$2,026…-$1,396] · 1% credit	74% surv 67%	+$5,788 SAFE cap gain +$12,812
budget: banked $1,420 debit $1,367 (96% used ≈ 2.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,518/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 11d left	3-10d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $504.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $505-517.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $517.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$510.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,420	$3,285	+$10,309	+$4,500
+2.5%	$522.75 (1.1σ)	$-1,130	$3,296	+$10,320	+$4,500
+5%	$535.50 (1.4σ)	$-3,680	$3,306	+$10,330	+$4,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$510	14 Sep 2026	6d left	+$0.67/sh	+$135 cycle +$419 [+$65…+$502] · 84% credit	67% surv 51%	+$2,284 SAFE cap gain +$9,308
Max even-money escape in the band	~$539	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.76/sh	+$151 cycle +$435 [-$320…+$514] · 60% credit	77% surv 71%	+$8,178 SAFE cap gain +$15,202
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$544	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.59/sh	-$118 cycle +$166 [-$633…+$238] · 39% credit	78% surv 74%	+$8,913 SAFE cap gain +$15,937
budget: banked $284 debit $118 (41% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$166 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,293/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $504.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $505-511.49	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $511.49	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$510.00 (1.5σ)	$284	$2,149	+$9,173	+$3,364
+2.5%	$522.75 (2.0σ)	$-2,266	$2,160	+$9,184	+$3,364
+5%	$535.50 (2.4σ)	$-4,816	$2,170	+$9,194	+$3,364

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$509	25 Sep 2026	18d left	+$3.43/sh	+$687 cycle +$1,307 [+$333…+$881] · 92% credit	73% surv 64%	+$3,026 SAFE cap gain +$10,050
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$495	14 Sep 2026	6d left	+$1.00/sh	+$200 cycle +$820 [+$44…+$378] · 82% credit	67% surv 51%	-$327 NOT cap gain +$6,697
Max even-money escape in the band	~$524	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$1.04/sh	+$208 cycle +$828 [-$349…+$352] · 48% credit	77% surv 71%	+$5,559 SAFE cap gain +$12,583
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$549	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$2.98/sh	-$596 cycle +$24 [-$1,294…-$507] · 7% credit	85% surv 83%	+$9,775 SAFE cap gain +$16,799
budget: banked $620 debit $596 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $1,624/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $490.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $490-498.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $498.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$495.00 (1.0σ)	$620	$-527	+$6,497	+$700
+2.5%	$507.37 (1.4σ)	$-1,855	$-517	+$6,507	+$700
+5%	$519.75 (1.9σ)	$-4,330	$-507	+$6,517	+$700

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$502	25 Sep 2026	18d left	+$3.58/sh	+$716 cycle +$1,616 [+$255…+$775] · 88% credit	73% surv 64%	+$1,829 SAFE cap gain +$8,853
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$488	14 Sep 2026	6d left	+$1.15/sh	+$230 cycle +$1,130 [+$10…+$340] · 78% credit	67% surv 51%	-$1,522 NOT cap gain +$5,502
Max even-money escape in the band	~$517	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$1.17/sh	+$234 cycle +$1,134 [-$487…+$249] · 38% credit	77% surv 71%	+$4,359 SAFE cap gain +$11,383
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$542	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$2.84/sh	-$569 cycle +$331 [-$1,436…-$601] · 6% credit	85% surv 83%	+$8,576 SAFE cap gain +$15,600
budget: banked $900 debit $569 (63% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$331 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $1,621/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $482.62	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $483-492.18	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $492.18	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$487.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$900	$-1,753	+$5,271	-$20
+2.5%	$499.69 (1.2σ)	$-1,537	$-1,743	+$5,281	-$520
+5%	$511.88 (1.6σ)	$-3,975	$-1,733	+$5,291	-$520

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$487	25 Sep 2026	18d left	+$3.85/sh	+$769 cycle +$2,589 [+$145…+$541] · 86% credit	73% surv 64%	-$210 NOT cap gain +$6,814
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$472	14 Sep 2026	6d left	+$1.44/sh	+$289 cycle +$2,109 [-$12…+$170] · 72% credit	67% surv 51%	-$3,556 NOT cap gain +$3,468
Max even-money escape in the band	~$507	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$14 cycle +$1,834 [-$980…-$344] · 9% credit	78% surv 74%	+$3,051 SAFE cap gain +$10,075
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$547	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$5.60/sh	-$1,121 cycle +$699 [-$2,405…-$1,580]	90% surv 89%	+$9,948 SAFE cap gain +$16,972
budget: banked $1,820 debit $1,121 (62% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$699 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $860/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $467.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $468-481.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $481.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$472.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,820	$-3,845	+$3,179	+$900
+2.5%	$484.31 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-542	$-3,835	+$3,189	-$1,462
+5%	$496.12 (1.1σ)	$-2,905	$-3,826	+$3,198	-$2,600

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$342	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.75/sh	+$175 cycle +$260 [+$40…+$307] · 83% credit	66% surv 52%	-$28,078 NOT cap gain +$3,559
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$355	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$2.03/sh	+$203 cycle +$288 [-$15…+$342] · 73% credit	72% surv 64%	-$26,658 NOT cap gain +$4,980
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$345	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.96/sh	+$96 cycle +$181 [-$47…+$220] · 65% credit	68% surv 56%	-$27,855 NOT cap gain +$3,783
Max even-money escape in the band	~$360	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.64/sh	+$64 cycle +$149 [-$174…+$199] · 54% credit	75% surv 68%	-$26,252 NOT cap gain +$5,385
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$365	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.38/sh	-$38 cycle +$47 [-$292…+$96] · 37% credit	77% surv 72%	-$25,809 NOT cap gain +$5,829
budget: banked $85 debit $38 (44% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$47 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,035/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $339.07	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $339-345.43	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $345.43	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$342.50 (1.3σ)	$85	$-28,253	+$3,384	+$80
+2.5%	$351.06 (1.7σ)	$-771	$-28,176	+$3,461	-$776
+5%	$359.62 (2.1σ)	$-1,628	$-28,099	+$3,539	-$1,632
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (12.0σ)	$-24,465	$-26,044	+$5,594	-$9,670

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$332	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.96/sh	+$196 cycle +$416 [+$24…+$261] · 79% credit	66% surv 52%	-$29,012 NOT cap gain +$2,625
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$345	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$2.24/sh	+$224 cycle +$444 [-$40…+$276] · 68% credit	72% surv 64%	-$27,592 NOT cap gain +$4,045
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$335	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.18/sh	+$118 cycle +$338 [-$65…+$170] · 59% credit	68% surv 56%	-$28,789 NOT cap gain +$2,849
Max even-money escape in the band	~$350	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.84/sh	+$84 cycle +$304 [-$201…+$128] · 42% credit	75% surv 68%	-$27,187 NOT cap gain +$4,451
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$360	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$1.70/sh	-$170 cycle +$50 [-$493…-$138] · 14% credit	80% surv 75%	-$26,351 NOT cap gain +$5,286
budget: banked $220 debit $170 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $839/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $329.18	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $329-335.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $335.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$332.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$220	$-29,208	+$2,429	+$215
+2.5%	$340.81 (1.2σ)	$-611	$-29,133	+$2,504	-$616
+5%	$349.12 (1.6σ)	$-1,442	$-29,058	+$2,579	-$1,448
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (12.0σ)	$-25,330	$-26,909	+$4,729	-$10,535

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$325	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$2.11/sh	+$211 cycle +$551 [-$8…+$195] · 73% credit	66% surv 52%	-$29,695 NOT cap gain +$1,943
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$338	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$2.37/sh	+$237 cycle +$577 [-$85…+$190] · 61% credit	72% surv 64%	-$28,276 NOT cap gain +$3,361
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$328	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.32/sh	+$132 cycle +$472 [-$94…+$105] · 48% credit	68% surv 56%	-$29,471 NOT cap gain +$2,166
Max even-money escape in the band	~$343	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.98/sh	+$98 cycle +$438 [-$245…+$48] · 31% credit	75% surv 68%	-$27,870 NOT cap gain +$3,767
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$358	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$2.08/sh	-$208 cycle +$132 [-$602…-$280] · 7% credit	82% surv 79%	-$26,541 NOT cap gain +$5,096
budget: banked $340 debit $208 (61% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$132 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $768/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $321.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $322-329.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $329.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$325.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$340	$-29,906	+$1,732	+$335
+2.5%	$333.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-472	$-29,832	+$1,805	-$477
+5%	$341.25 (1.3σ)	$-1,285	$-29,759	+$1,878	-$1,290
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (12.0σ)	$-25,960	$-27,539	+$4,099	-$11,165

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$323	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$4.50/sh	+$450 cycle +$1,130 [+$54…+$272] · 81% credit	70% surv 60%	-$29,359 NOT cap gain +$2,279
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$315	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$2.29/sh	+$229 cycle +$909 [-$69…+$94] · 59% credit	66% surv 52%	-$30,426 NOT cap gain +$1,211
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$318	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.51/sh	+$151 cycle +$831 [-$155…+$16] · 31% credit	68% surv 56%	-$30,203 NOT cap gain +$1,435
Max even-money escape in the band	~$338	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.15/sh	+$15 cycle +$695 [-$465…-$185] · 7% credit	78% surv 72%	-$28,159 NOT cap gain +$3,479
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$373	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$5.97/sh	-$597 cycle +$83 [-$1,266…-$854]	91% surv 91%	-$24,956 NOT cap gain +$6,682
budget: banked $680 debit $597 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $249/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $311.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $312-322.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $322.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$315.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$680	$-30,656	+$982	+$675
+2.5%	$322.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-108	$-30,585	+$1,053	-$112
+5%	$330.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-895	$-30,514	+$1,124	-$900
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (12.0σ)	$-26,620	$-28,199	+$3,439	-$11,825

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$35	25 Sep 2026	14d left	+$0.33/sh	+$4,132 cycle +$4,257 [+$4,432…+$10,650] · 97% credit	68% surv 54%	+$9,413 SAFE cap gain +$97,663
Max even-money escape in the band	~$37	2 Oct 2026	21d left	+$0.15/sh	+$1,870 cycle +$1,995 [+$1,198…+$9,590] · 83% credit	72% surv 63%	+$25,833 SAFE cap gain +$114,083
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 8d left	3-7d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $34.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $35-35.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $35.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 26 active short call(s) 2 TRIPPED · 1 watch · 3 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

NEM

Main:1299

5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)

$127.94

$125.40

$6.05

$3.11

TRIPPED ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

NOW

Main:1299

10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (42d)

$142.84

$155.41

$11.85

$9.01

TRIPPED ▸

🟡 ROLL vs HOLD · intrinsic is the enemy why ▸

SNDK

Neville:0865

1x $1650C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)

$1,614.22

$1,695.75

$71.80

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (0d)

$338.71

$345.88

$0.15

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC340

Neville:0865

5x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (0d)

$338.71

$345.88

$0.15

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

HIMS

Main:1299

15x $36C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)

$27.59

$36.63

$0.12

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMZN

Joint:1782

5x $267.5C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)

$259.85

$268.32

$1.38

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Main:1299

10x $240C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)

$231.53

$240.66

$1.44

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

RKLB

RetireInc:7291

6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)

$64.33

$69.65

$0.77

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $93C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)

$86.05

$94.27

$0.95

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC500

Main:1299

25x $225C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)

$187.16

$225.88

$0.42

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)

$984.00

$1,043.97

$25.12

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)

$984.00

$1,043.97

$25.12

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC670

Joint:1782

1x $1050C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)

$984.00

$1,067.67

$19.27

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $180C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)

$168.26

$182.48

$1.61

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COPX

Joint:1782

20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)

$90.09

$101.31

$0.45

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

RetireInc:7291

3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (21d)

$515.76

$565.44

$17.68

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (28d)

$187.16

$229.43

$5.05

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (42d)

$338.71

$374.44

$4.72

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1299

Main:1299

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (42d)

$41.84

$55.88

$1.25

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1782

Joint:1782

20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (42d)

$41.84

$55.88

$1.25

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

META

Main:1299

3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (77d)

$609.39

$687.21

$26.67

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $125C 20 Nov 2026 (77d)

$105.68

$126.98

$1.04

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (77d)

$139.93

$180.96

$10.75

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (77d)

$139.93

$180.95

$10.75

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (105d)

$405.23

$476.90

$5.53

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$25.29	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$25.29	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 30.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$25.29	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.55	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 39.5% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$36.03	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.8% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$44.95	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$11.32	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$11.32	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 72.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 26 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMZN	Joint:1782	5	$267.92	5x $268C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (28d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $225C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $93C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (21d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (105d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (0d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $345C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)]
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (42d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $345C 4 Sep 2026 (0d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $345C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)]
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $36C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $125C 20 Nov 2026 (77d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (42d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (42d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (77d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (77d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (77d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC670	Joint:1782	1	$792.36	1x $1050C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1030C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (42d)
NVDA	Main:1299	10	$264.80	10x $240C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $180C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1650C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2489 of 2668 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	177	56%	62%	+6pp
60-70%	347	64%	62%	-3pp
70-80%	445	76%	83%	+7pp
80-90%	575	85%	84%	-0pp
90-100%	945	94%	95%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2489 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 8 graded weeks; last week 0.83x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 160 real buyback(s) recorded · 82 roll(s), net +$0.68/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 82 real rolls: buyback $6.35/sh, replacement credit financed 111% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.68/sh (58 of 82 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-09-04 21:36

Gross FIGHT income	$2,029/mo
vs 50% target ($3,711/mo)	-45%
vs normal income ($7,423/mo)	27% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,522/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($13,964)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($41,964)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-7,074

Gross FIGHT income	$1,217/mo
vs 50% target ($3,711/mo)	-67%
vs normal income ($7,423/mo)	16% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$711/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($13,964)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($41,964)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-7,038

Gross FIGHT income	$2,657/mo
vs 50% target ($3,711/mo)	-28%
vs normal income ($7,423/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,151/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$654
… as % of IC ($13,964)	4.7%
… as % of ML ($41,964)	1.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.1 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-7,054

Gross FIGHT income	$3,857/mo
vs 50% target ($3,711/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($7,423/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,351/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,874
… as % of IC ($13,964)	13.4%
… as % of ML ($41,964)	4.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-7,059

Gross FIGHT income	$7,800/mo
vs 50% target ($3,711/mo)	+110%
vs normal income ($7,423/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,294/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,954
… as % of IC ($13,964)	28.3%
… as % of ML ($41,964)	9.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-7,064

Gross FIGHT income	$364/mo
vs 50% target ($1,254/mo)	-71%
vs normal income ($2,507/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$273/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,561
… as % of IC ($12,800)	207.5%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	55.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.6 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-31,845

Gross FIGHT income	$943/mo
vs 50% target ($1,254/mo)	-25%
vs normal income ($2,507/mo)	38% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$851/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,426
… as % of IC ($12,800)	214.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	56.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.9 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-31,692

Gross FIGHT income	$1,457/mo
vs 50% target ($1,254/mo)	+16%
vs normal income ($2,507/mo)	58% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,366/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,056
… as % of IC ($12,800)	219.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	58.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.2 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-31,738

Gross FIGHT income	$2,914/mo
vs 50% target ($1,254/mo)	+132%
vs normal income ($2,507/mo)	116% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,823/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,716
… as % of IC ($12,800)	224.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	59.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-31,728

Gross FIGHT income	$268/mo
vs 50% target ($19,420/mo)	-99%
vs normal income ($38,839/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$268/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($27,625)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)	$-90,312

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$35.00 (2.1σ)	$125	$5,281	+$93,531	+$0
+2.5%	$35.88 (2.3σ)	$-10,812	$3,684	+$91,934	+$0
+5%	$36.75 (2.5σ)	$-21,750	$2,088	+$90,338	+$0
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (3.2σ)	$-58,750	$-3,315	+$84,935	+$0

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$33	2 Oct 2026	21d left	+$0.41/sh	+$5,164 cycle +$6,289 [+$3,281…+$9,746] · 96% credit	70% surv 59%	-$12,574 NOT cap gain +$75,676
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$32	25 Sep 2026	14d left	+$0.28/sh	+$3,526 cycle +$4,651 [+$2,138…+$7,290] · 95% credit	68% surv 54%	-$22,218 NOT cap gain +$66,032
Max even-money escape in the band	~$34	2 Oct 2026	21d left	+$0.04/sh	+$559 cycle +$1,684 [-$1,852…+$4,756] · 55% credit	72% surv 64%	-$6,503 NOT cap gain +$81,747
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Gross FIGHT income	$2,411/mo
vs 50% target ($19,420/mo)	-88%
vs normal income ($38,839/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,411/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,169
… as % of IC ($27,625)	109.2%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	10.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)	$-91,125

Spot \ Time	≥ 8d left	3-7d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $31.68	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $32-32.32	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $32.32	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$32.00 (1.4σ)	$1,125	$-25,744	+$62,506	+$1,000
+2.5%	$32.80 (1.6σ)	$-8,875	$-27,204	+$61,046	-$9,000
+5%	$33.60 (1.7σ)	$-18,875	$-28,664	+$59,586	-$19,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (3.2σ)	$-95,250	$-39,815	+$48,435	-$36,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (104 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$28	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.45/sh	+$4,709 cycle +$7,725 [+$2,389…+$4,778] · 95% credit	67% surv 53%	-$61,823 NOT cap gain +$26,427
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$30	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.56/sh	+$5,800 cycle +$8,816 [+$2,480…+$5,775] · 92% credit	73% surv 65%	-$42,051 NOT cap gain +$46,199
Max even-money escape in the band	~$31	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$2,169 cycle +$5,185 [-$1,811…+$1,775] · 48% credit	76% surv 70%	-$35,006 NOT cap gain +$53,244
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$29	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.13/sh	+$1,330 cycle +$4,346 [-$1,594…+$1,020] · 42% credit	70% surv 60%	-$57,195 NOT cap gain +$31,055
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$32	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.01/sh	-$70 cycle +$2,946 [-$4,416…-$674] · 20% credit	79% surv 75%	-$26,571 NOT cap gain +$61,679
budget: banked $3,016 debit $70 (2% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,946 cash · rolled 104 ct earn ≈ $13,819/mo while parked; 21 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$12,926/mo
vs 50% target ($19,420/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($38,839/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,971/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$64,620
… as % of IC ($27,625)	233.9%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	23.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (104 ct)	$-75,712

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $27.72	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $28-28.51	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $28.51	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$28.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,016	$-66,532	+$21,718	+$2,912
+2.5%	$28.70 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-4,264	$-66,339	+$21,911	-$4,368
+5%	$29.40 (1.1σ)	$-11,544	$-66,147	+$22,103	-$11,648
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (4.5σ)	$-118,768	$-73,202	+$15,048	-$69,888

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (75 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$27	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.43/sh	+$3,218 cycle +$7,793 [+$1,208…+$2,449] · 93% credit	67% surv 53%	-$72,401 NOT cap gain +$15,849
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$29	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.50/sh	+$3,714 cycle +$8,289 [+$819…+$2,635] · 86% credit	74% surv 65%	-$53,224 NOT cap gain +$35,026
Max even-money escape in the band	~$30	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.16/sh	+$1,184 cycle +$5,759 [-$2,196…-$47] · 24% credit	77% surv 71%	-$45,079 NOT cap gain +$43,171
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$28	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.11/sh	+$801 cycle +$5,376 [-$1,666…-$91] · 22% credit	71% surv 60%	-$66,811 NOT cap gain +$21,439
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$32	25 Sep 2026	18d left	-$0.50/sh	-$3,772 cycle +$803 [-$7,987…-$5,294]	85% surv 83%	-$28,685 NOT cap gain +$59,565
budget: banked $4,575 debit $3,772 (82% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$803 cash · rolled 75 ct earn ≈ $6,302/mo while parked; 50 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$19,607/mo
vs 50% target ($19,420/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($38,839/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$19,714/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$51,701
… as % of IC ($27,625)	187.2%
… as % of ML ($277,625)	18.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (75 ct)	$-54,675

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $26.73	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $27-27.84	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $27.84	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.