FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

20 fortress slices across 3 account(s) | 0 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 6 underwater (not deep DD) | 2 skipped (CSV) | 12 uncapped above water | 0 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $0/mo · plus $77,680/mo CC-safe on 6 shallow row(s) ⓘ

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
SHALLOW · NOT A DEEP DRAWDOWN a CC at the floor still pays, so recovery is the trade: 🎯 sits on the CC-SAFE rung (assignment breaks even or better) and the income rungs beside it are fidelity, priced with what assignment below the floor would lock
IREN ↗ ⚐⚡ER 2dMAX 10 ▲ UP BIG +9.7% Neville:0865 · This Fri	50	$24.16	$24.32	⏸⚡ 10 × $28.50 6 Nov (3d)⚡ $780 cyc · $7,800/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:43%hist 40% above floor +$4,181 · hole 0.1mo	10 × $31.50 6 Nov (3d)⚡ $350 cyc · $3,500/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:21%hist 22% above floor +$7,181 · hole 0.2mo	10 × $33.50 6 Nov (3d)⚡ $190 cyc · $1,900/mo 94% survhist 96% · T:12%hist 13% above floor +$9,181 · hole 0.4mo	10 × $32 6 Nov (3d)⚡ $300 cyc · $3,000/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13% above floor +$7,681 · hole 0.3mo	10 × $30 6 Nov (3d)⚡ $530 cyc · $5,300/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 22% above floor +$5,681 · hole 0.1mo	-	+$4,181 whole if assigned	0.6% whole ~7 Nov on 🎯
MARA ↗ ⚐⚡ER 6dMAX 125 ▲ UP BIG +10.1% Neville:0865 · This Fri	500	$7.08	$6.91	🎯 125 × $8 6 Nov (3d) $1,250 cyc · $12,500/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 31% above floor +$13,640	125 × $9.50 13 Nov (10d)alt tenor⚡ $875 cyc · $2,625/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:15%hist 13% above floor +$32,390	🎯 125 × $8 6 Nov (3d) $1,250 cyc · $12,500/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 31% above floor +$13,640	🎯 125 × $8 6 Nov (3d) $1,250 cyc · $12,500/mo 83% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 31% above floor +$13,640	125 × $7.50 6 Nov (3d) $2,875 cyc · $28,750/mo 69% survhist 66% · T:66%hist 55% above floor +$7,390	-	+$13,640 whole if assigned	0.0%
BMNR ↗ ⚐⚡ER 17dMAX 60 ▲ UP +4.5% Neville:0865 · This Fri	250	$20.41	$20.55	🎯 60 × $22.50 6 Nov (3d) $960 cyc · $9,600/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 22% above floor +$11,678 · hole 0.4mo	60 × $23 6 Nov (3d) $600 cyc · $6,000/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 22% above floor +$14,678 · hole 0.6mo	60 × $23 6 Nov (3d) $600 cyc · $6,000/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 22% above floor +$14,678 · hole 0.6mo	🎯 60 × $22.50 6 Nov (3d) $960 cyc · $9,600/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:29%hist 22% above floor +$11,678 · hole 0.4mo	60 × $21.50 6 Nov (3d) $2,160 cyc · $21,600/mo 72% survhist 83% · T:57%hist 45% above floor +$5,678 · hole 0.2mo	-	+$11,678 whole if assigned	0.7% whole ~15 Nov on 🎯
LLY ↗ +0.4% Main:1299 · This Fri	1	$1,416.26	$1,424.57	🎯 1 × $1460 6 Nov (3d) $510 cyc · $5,100/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:35%hist 31% above floor +$3,543 · hole 0.2mo	1 × $1485 6 Nov (3d) $215 cyc · $2,150/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% above floor +$6,043 · hole 0.4mo	1 × $1480 6 Nov (3d) $261 cyc · $2,610/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:22%hist 22% above floor +$5,543 · hole 0.3mo	1 × $1470 6 Nov (3d) $365 cyc · $3,650/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 31% above floor +$4,543 · hole 0.2mo	1 × $1450 6 Nov (3d) $765 cyc · $7,650/mo 75% survhist 83% · T:51%hist 45% above floor +$2,543 · hole 0.1mo	-	+$3,543 whole if assigned	0.6% whole ~9 Nov on 🎯
QQQ-LC675 ↗ ⚐ +0.5% Joint:1782 · This Fri	8	$684.26	$698.89	🎯 8 × $705 6 Nov (3d) $2,240 cyc · $22,400/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 31% above floor +$4,887 · hole 0.5mo	8 × $714 6 Nov (3d) $1,000 cyc · $10,000/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 22% above floor +$12,087 · hole 1.2mo	8 × $714 6 Nov (3d) $1,000 cyc · $10,000/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:20%hist 22% above floor +$12,087 · hole 1.2mo	8 × $710 6 Nov (3d) $1,456 cyc · $14,560/mo 86% survhist 86% · T:28%hist 22% above floor +$8,887 · hole 0.8mo	8 × $701 6 Nov (3d) $3,064 cyc · $30,640/mo 76% survhist 83% · T:49%hist 40% above floor +$1,687 · hole 0.4mo	-	+$4,887 whole if assigned	2.1% whole ~19 Nov on 🎯
SPY-LC735 ↗ ⚐ +0.2% Joint:1782 · This Fri	12	$753.70	$764.68	🎯 12 × $766 6 Nov (3d) $2,028 cyc · $20,280/mo 81% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 31% above floor +$1,578 · hole 0.6mo	12 × $771 6 Nov (3d) $864 cyc · $8,640/mo 90% survhist 96% · T:19%hist 13% above floor +$7,578 · hole 1.5mo	12 × $770 6 Nov (3d) $1,032 cyc · $10,320/mo 89% survhist 86% · T:23%hist 22% above floor +$6,378 · hole 1.3mo	12 × $768 6 Nov (3d) $1,476 cyc · $14,760/mo 85% survhist 86% · T:30%hist 22% above floor +$3,978 · hole 0.9mo	12 × $763 6 Nov (3d) $3,084 cyc · $30,840/mo 74% survhist 83% · T:52%hist 45% safe once 🎯 banks · hole 0.4mo	-	+$1,578 whole if assigned	1.5% whole ~23 Nov on 🎯
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
ABT Main:1299	13	$109.47	$107.75 BE	+1.6% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
AXP Main:1299	3	$325.48	$321.53 BE	+1.2% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
CI Main:1299	7	$295.06	$290.30 BE	+1.6% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
COIN Main:1299	10	$145.30	$143.68 BE	+1.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
DELL Main:1299	3	$406.93	$398.75 BE	+2.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
JPM Main:1299	4	$337.36	$335.01 BE	+0.7% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
MCD Main:1299	10	$262.93	$261.19 BE	+0.7% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
MU Main:1299	1	$848.50	$844.99 BE	+0.4% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
NVDA Main:1299	6	$206.43	$205.20 BE	+0.6% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
PEP Main:1299	14	$137.53	$136.37 BE	+0.9% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
SPCX Main:1299	8	$140.86	$138.74 BE	+1.5% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
XOM Main:1299	14	$177.87	$175.78 BE	+1.2% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
TOTAL (6)	821	following every 🎯 $7,768 cyc · $77,680/mo		$7,768 cyc · $77,680/mo	$3,904 cyc · $32,915/mo	$4,333 cyc · $43,330/mo	$5,807 cyc · $58,070/mo	$12,478 cyc · $124,780/mo	-	-$0

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$32	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.37/sh	+$1,374 cycle +$2,154 [+$1,373…+$1,879] · 100% credit	70% surv 55%	+$25,314 SAFE cap gain +$25,464
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$37	20 Nov 2026	16d left	+$0.30/sh	+$304 cycle +$1,084 [-$117…+$640] · 66% credit	78% surv 72%	+$38,581 SAFE cap gain +$38,731
Max even-money escape in the band	~$39	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$145 cycle +$925 [-$335…+$485] · 57% credit	81% surv 76%	+$44,352 SAFE cap gain +$44,502
SS $59 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$35	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.05/sh	+$49 cycle +$829 [-$356…+$316] · 53% credit	77% surv 69%	+$33,878 SAFE cap gain +$34,028
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$41	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.28/sh	-$280 cycle +$500 [-$889…+$12] · 27% credit	84% surv 80%	+$49,856 SAFE cap gain +$50,006
budget: banked $780 debit $280 (36% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$500 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,708/mo while parked; 40 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $31.68	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $32-29.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $29.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$32.00 (2.1σ)	$300	$23,461	+$23,611	+$280
+2.5%	$32.80 (2.3σ)	$-500	$25,033	+$25,183	-$520
+5%	$33.60 (2.5σ)	$-1,300	$26,605	+$26,755	-$1,320
SS (= V-bounce)	$58.78 (9.3σ)	$-26,480	$76,083	+$76,233	-$26,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$32	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.34/sh	+$1,341 cycle +$1,691 [+$1,337…+$1,854] · 100% credit	70% surv 55%	+$23,369 SAFE cap gain +$23,519
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$36	20 Nov 2026	16d left	+$0.26/sh	+$261 cycle +$611 [-$133…+$586] · 64% credit	78% surv 72%	+$36,625 SAFE cap gain +$36,775
Max even-money escape in the band	~$38	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.10/sh	+$96 cycle +$446 [-$360…+$427] · 56% credit	81% surv 77%	+$42,390 SAFE cap gain +$42,540
SS $59 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$35	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.02/sh	+$21 cycle +$371 [-$360…+$300] · 53% credit	77% surv 69%	+$31,938 SAFE cap gain +$32,088
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$40	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.32/sh	-$323 cycle +$27 [-$907…-$7] · 24% credit	84% surv 81%	+$47,901 SAFE cap gain +$48,051
budget: banked $350 debit $323 (92% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$27 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,589/mo while parked; 40 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $31.18	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $31-31.86	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $31.86	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$31.50 (2.0σ)	$350	$22,028	+$22,178	+$330
+2.5%	$32.29 (2.2σ)	$-437	$23,576	+$23,726	-$457
+5%	$33.08 (2.4σ)	$-1,225	$25,123	+$25,273	-$1,245
SS (= V-bounce)	$58.78 (9.3σ)	$-26,930	$75,633	+$75,783	-$26,950

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$34	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.47/sh	+$1,474 cycle +$1,664 [+$1,735…+$2,091] · 100% credit	70% surv 56%	+$29,272 SAFE cap gain +$29,422
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$37	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$136 cycle +$326 [-$83…+$481] · 71% credit	77% surv 68%	+$37,822 SAFE cap gain +$37,972
Max even-money escape in the band	~$41	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.06/sh	+$61 cycle +$251 [-$257…+$501] · 67% credit	82% surv 77%	+$51,090 SAFE cap gain +$51,240
SS $59 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$40	20 Nov 2026	16d left	+$0.02/sh	+$23 cycle +$213 [-$288…+$414] · 65% credit	80% surv 75%	+$46,605 SAFE cap gain +$46,755
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$42	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.14/sh	-$143 cycle +$47 [-$498…+$254] · 50% credit	83% surv 79%	+$53,851 SAFE cap gain +$54,001
budget: banked $190 debit $143 (75% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$47 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,077/mo while parked; 40 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $33.16	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $33-33.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $33.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$33.50 (2.5σ)	$190	$27,798	+$27,948	+$170
+2.5%	$34.34 (2.7σ)	$-647	$29,444	+$29,594	-$668
+5%	$35.18 (3.0σ)	$-1,485	$31,090	+$31,240	-$1,505
SS (= V-bounce)	$58.78 (9.3σ)	$-25,090	$77,473	+$77,623	-$25,110

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$32	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.37/sh	+$1,374 cycle +$1,674 [+$1,373…+$1,879] · 100% credit	70% surv 55%	+$24,834 SAFE cap gain +$24,984
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$37	20 Nov 2026	16d left	+$0.30/sh	+$304 cycle +$604 [-$117…+$640] · 66% credit	78% surv 72%	+$38,101 SAFE cap gain +$38,251
Max even-money escape in the band	~$39	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$145 cycle +$445 [-$335…+$485] · 57% credit	81% surv 76%	+$43,872 SAFE cap gain +$44,022
SS $59 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$35	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.05/sh	+$49 cycle +$349 [-$356…+$316] · 53% credit	77% surv 69%	+$33,398 SAFE cap gain +$33,548
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$41	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.28/sh	-$280 cycle +$20 [-$889…+$12] · 27% credit	84% surv 80%	+$49,376 SAFE cap gain +$49,526
budget: banked $300 debit $280 (93% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,708/mo while parked; 40 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $31.68	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $32-32.31	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $32.31	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$32.00 (2.1σ)	$300	$23,461	+$23,611	+$280
+2.5%	$32.80 (2.3σ)	$-500	$25,033	+$25,183	-$520
+5%	$33.60 (2.5σ)	$-1,300	$26,605	+$26,755	-$1,320
SS (= V-bounce)	$58.78 (9.3σ)	$-26,480	$76,083	+$76,233	-$26,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$30	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.24/sh	+$1,245 cycle +$1,775 [+$1,032…+$1,570] · 100% credit	70% surv 55%	+$19,006 SAFE cap gain +$19,156
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$34	20 Nov 2026	16d left	+$0.27/sh	+$272 cycle +$802 [-$153…+$530] · 62% credit	78% surv 72%	+$30,886 SAFE cap gain +$31,036
Max even-money escape in the band	~$36	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.20/sh	+$199 cycle +$729 [-$268…+$465] · 56% credit	81% surv 75%	+$35,261 SAFE cap gain +$35,411
SS $59 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$33	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$93 cycle +$623 [-$292…+$312] · 51% credit	76% surv 68%	+$26,259 SAFE cap gain +$26,409
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$39	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.44/sh	-$444 cycle +$86 [-$1,098…-$245] · 12% credit	85% surv 82%	+$43,512 SAFE cap gain +$43,662
budget: banked $530 debit $444 (84% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,247/mo while parked; 40 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $29.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $30-30.54	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $30.54	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$30.00 (1.6σ)	$530	$17,761	+$17,911	+$510
+2.5%	$30.75 (1.8σ)	$-220	$19,235	+$19,385	-$240
+5%	$31.50 (2.0σ)	$-970	$20,708	+$20,858	-$990
SS (= V-bounce)	$58.78 (9.3σ)	$-28,250	$74,313	+$74,463	-$28,270

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$4,149 cycle +$5,399 [+$3,746…+$4,698] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%	+$27,254 SAFE cap gain +$23,254
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,798 cycle +$3,048 [+$1,032…+$2,260] · 92% credit	74% surv 64%	+$32,883 SAFE cap gain +$28,883
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$1,032 cycle +$2,282 [-$281…+$1,537] · 69% credit	81% surv 77%	+$51,117 SAFE cap gain +$47,117
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.09/sh	-$1,133 cycle +$117 [-$3,047…-$807] · 7% credit	88% surv 86%	+$67,952 SAFE cap gain +$63,952
budget: banked $1,250 debit $1,133 (91% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$117 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $4,266/mo while parked; 375 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.92	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.00 (1.1σ)	$1,250	$23,105	+$19,105	+$1,125
+2.5%	$8.20 (1.4σ)	$-1,250	$24,405	+$20,405	-$1,375
+5%	$8.40 (1.6σ)	$-3,750	$25,705	+$21,705	-$3,875
SS (= V-bounce)	$26.31 (24.0σ)	$-227,625	$-207,005	-$211,005	-$111,375

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.28/sh	+$3,466 cycle +$4,341 [+$3,811…+$5,443] · 100% credit	69% surv 55%	+$54,696 SAFE cap gain +$50,696
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.07/sh	+$924 cycle +$1,799 [+$808…+$2,423] · 93% credit	72% surv 62%	+$60,134 SAFE cap gain +$56,134
Max even-money escape in the band	~$10	27 Nov 2026	19d left	+$0.06/sh	+$758 cycle +$1,633 [+$552…+$2,685] · 85% credit	76% surv 68%	+$69,468 SAFE cap gain +$65,468
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $9.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $9-9.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $9.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$9.50 (1.7σ)	$875	$51,230	+$47,230	+$750
+2.5%	$9.74 (1.8σ)	$-2,094	$52,774	+$48,774	-$2,219
+5%	$9.97 (2.0σ)	$-5,062	$54,318	+$50,318	-$5,187
SS (= V-bounce)	$26.31 (13.2σ)	$-209,250	$-188,630	-$192,630	-$93,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$4,149 cycle +$5,399 [+$3,746…+$4,698] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%	+$27,254 SAFE cap gain +$23,254
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,798 cycle +$3,048 [+$1,032…+$2,260] · 92% credit	74% surv 64%	+$32,883 SAFE cap gain +$28,883
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$1,032 cycle +$2,282 [-$281…+$1,537] · 69% credit	81% surv 77%	+$51,117 SAFE cap gain +$47,117
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.09/sh	-$1,133 cycle +$117 [-$3,047…-$807] · 7% credit	88% surv 86%	+$67,952 SAFE cap gain +$63,952
budget: banked $1,250 debit $1,133 (91% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$117 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $4,266/mo while parked; 375 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.92	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.00 (1.1σ)	$1,250	$23,105	+$19,105	+$1,125
+2.5%	$8.20 (1.4σ)	$-1,250	$24,405	+$20,405	-$1,375
+5%	$8.40 (1.6σ)	$-3,750	$25,705	+$21,705	-$3,875
SS (= V-bounce)	$26.31 (24.0σ)	$-227,625	$-207,005	-$211,005	-$111,375

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$4,149 cycle +$5,399 [+$3,746…+$4,698] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%	+$27,254 SAFE cap gain +$23,254
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,798 cycle +$3,048 [+$1,032…+$2,260] · 92% credit	74% surv 64%	+$32,883 SAFE cap gain +$28,883
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$1,032 cycle +$2,282 [-$281…+$1,537] · 69% credit	81% surv 77%	+$51,117 SAFE cap gain +$47,117
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.09/sh	-$1,133 cycle +$117 [-$3,047…-$807] · 7% credit	88% surv 86%	+$67,952 SAFE cap gain +$63,952
budget: banked $1,250 debit $1,133 (91% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$117 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $4,266/mo while parked; 375 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.92	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.00 (1.1σ)	$1,250	$23,105	+$19,105	+$1,125
+2.5%	$8.20 (1.4σ)	$-1,250	$24,405	+$20,405	-$1,375
+5%	$8.40 (1.6σ)	$-3,750	$25,705	+$21,705	-$3,875
SS (= V-bounce)	$26.31 (24.0σ)	$-227,625	$-207,005	-$211,005	-$111,375

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (125 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.30/sh	+$3,773 cycle +$6,648 [+$3,323…+$4,230] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%	+$19,003 SAFE cap gain +$15,003
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$8	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.18/sh	+$2,194 cycle +$5,069 [+$788…+$2,297] · 88% credit	78% surv 71%	+$34,904 SAFE cap gain +$30,904
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$1,454 cycle +$4,329 [+$377…+$1,499] · 83% credit	74% surv 65%	+$24,664 SAFE cap gain +$20,664
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$512 cycle +$3,387 [-$1,394…+$314] · 29% credit	82% surv 78%	+$42,722 SAFE cap gain +$38,722
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.17/sh	-$2,158 cycle +$717 [-$5,231…-$2,736]	92% surv 91%	+$68,552 SAFE cap gain +$64,552
budget: banked $2,875 debit $2,158 (75% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$717 cash · rolled 125 ct earn ≈ $2,384/mo while parked; 375 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.74	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.74	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 2 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
QQQ-STK-1782	Joint:1782	3	$684.32	$698.02	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 2.0% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
SPY-STK-1782	Joint:1782	4	$753.78	$762.55	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 1.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

📏 CALIBRATION: 3552 of 3716 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	241	56%	66%	+10pp
60-70%	457	64%	65%	+1pp
70-80%	606	76%	83%	+7pp
80-90%	842	84%	87%	+2pp
90-100%	1406	94%	96%	+2pp

Touch odds: predicted 37% avg vs realized 32% touch rate over 3552 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.23x (W42) to 1.59x (W34) over 17 graded weeks; last week 0.80x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 354 real buyback(s) recorded · 230 roll(s), net +$0.88/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 230 real rolls: buyback $3.96/sh, replacement credit financed 122% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.88/sh (182 of 230 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-11-04 04:19

Gross FIGHT income	$7,800/mo
vs 50% target ($13,169/mo)	-41%
vs normal income ($26,338/mo)	30% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,800/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($43,900)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($43,900)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-50

Gross FIGHT income	$3,500/mo
vs 50% target ($13,169/mo)	-73%
vs normal income ($26,338/mo)	13% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,500/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($43,900)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($43,900)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-45

Gross FIGHT income	$1,900/mo
vs 50% target ($13,169/mo)	-86%
vs normal income ($26,338/mo)	7% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,900/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$3,000/mo
vs 50% target ($13,169/mo)	-77%
vs normal income ($26,338/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,000/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$5,300/mo
vs 50% target ($13,169/mo)	-60%
vs normal income ($26,338/mo)	20% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,300/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$12,500/mo
vs 50% target ($30,441/mo)	-59%
vs normal income ($60,882/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,500/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($65,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($65,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (125 ct)	$938

Gross FIGHT income	$2,625/mo
vs 50% target ($30,441/mo)	-91%
vs normal income ($60,882/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,625/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$28,750/mo
vs 50% target ($30,441/mo)	-6%
vs normal income ($60,882/mo)	47% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$28,750/mo

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,875	$15,230	+$11,230	+$2,750
+2.5%	$7.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$531	$16,449	+$12,449	+$406
+5%	$7.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,812	$17,668	+$13,667	-$1,938
SS (= V-bounce)	$26.31 (24.0σ)	$-232,250	$-211,630	-$215,630	-$116,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (60 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.44/sh	+$2,658 cycle +$3,618 [+$2,014…+$3,128] · 98% credit	67% surv 52%	+$30,071 SAFE cap gain +$30,821
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$24	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.37/sh	+$2,231 cycle +$3,191 [+$888…+$2,611] · 86% credit	76% surv 68%	+$50,195 SAFE cap gain +$50,945
Max even-money escape in the band	~$25	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$466 cycle +$1,426 [-$1,343…+$715] · 42% credit	80% surv 75%	+$61,355 SAFE cap gain +$62,105
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$24	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.00/sh	+$9 cycle +$969 [-$1,316…+$257] · 35% credit	75% surv 68%	+$41,510 SAFE cap gain +$42,260
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$26	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.13/sh	-$753 cycle +$207 [-$2,966…-$623] · 11% credit	84% surv 82%	+$73,061 SAFE cap gain +$73,811
budget: banked $960 debit $753 (78% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$207 cash · rolled 60 ct earn ≈ $4,302/mo while parked; 190 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$9,600/mo
vs 50% target ($31,765/mo)	-70%
vs normal income ($63,529/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,600/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($138,250)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($138,250)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (60 ct)	$-240

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $22.27	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $22-22.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $22.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$22.50 (1.3σ)	$960	$27,413	+$28,163	+$900
+2.5%	$23.06 (1.7σ)	$-2,415	$31,309	+$32,059	-$2,475
+5%	$23.62 (2.0σ)	$-5,790	$35,204	+$35,954	-$5,850
SS (= V-bounce)	$45.53 (15.8σ)	$-137,220	$81,826	+$82,576	-$104,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (60 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$23	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.44/sh	+$2,637 cycle +$3,237 [+$2,110…+$3,195] · 97% credit	67% surv 52%	+$36,153 SAFE cap gain +$36,903
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$25	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.37/sh	+$2,221 cycle +$2,821 [+$1,044…+$2,768] · 87% credit	76% surv 68%	+$56,287 SAFE cap gain +$57,037
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$24	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.22/sh	+$1,297 cycle +$1,897 [+$551…+$1,786] · 86% credit	72% surv 61%	+$42,438 SAFE cap gain +$43,188
Max even-money escape in the band	~$26	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$445 cycle +$1,045 [-$1,203…+$890] · 48% credit	80% surv 75%	+$67,436 SAFE cap gain +$68,186
SS $46 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Gross FIGHT income	$6,000/mo
vs 50% target ($31,765/mo)	-81%
vs normal income ($63,529/mo)	9% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,000/mo

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $22.77	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $23-23.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $23.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$23.00 (1.6σ)	$600	$33,516	+$34,266	+$540
+2.5%	$23.57 (2.0σ)	$-2,850	$37,498	+$38,248	-$2,910
+5%	$24.15 (2.4σ)	$-6,300	$41,480	+$42,230	-$6,360
SS (= V-bounce)	$45.53 (15.8σ)	$-134,580	$84,466	+$85,216	-$101,460

Gross FIGHT income	$21,600/mo
vs 50% target ($31,765/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($63,529/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$21,600/mo

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $21.29	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $21-21.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $21.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$21.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,160	$15,688	+$16,438	+$2,100
+2.5%	$22.04 (1.0σ)	$-1,065	$19,410	+$20,160	-$1,125
+5%	$22.57 (1.4σ)	$-4,290	$23,133	+$23,883	-$4,350
SS (= V-bounce)	$45.53 (15.8σ)	$-142,020	$77,026	+$77,776	-$108,900

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,460	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$9.15/sh	+$915 cycle +$1,425 [+$214…+$1,026] · 82% credit	65% surv 51%	+$5,522 SAFE cap gain +$6,167
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,504	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$7.22/sh	+$722 cycle +$1,232 [-$340…+$773] · 63% credit	74% surv 66%	+$10,070 SAFE cap gain +$10,715
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,524	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$1.17/sh	+$117 cycle +$627 [-$1,086…+$121] · 29% credit	78% surv 72%	+$11,633 SAFE cap gain +$12,278
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,484	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.05/sh	+$5 cycle +$515 [-$939…+$24] · 26% credit	72% surv 63%	+$7,185 SAFE cap gain +$7,830
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$1,544	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$4.11/sh	-$411 cycle +$99 [-$1,757…-$453] · 9% credit	81% surv 78%	+$13,273 SAFE cap gain +$13,918
budget: banked $510 debit $411 (81% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$99 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,017/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$5,100/mo
vs 50% target ($3,349/mo)	+52%
vs normal income ($6,697/mo)	76% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,667/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($27,875)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($61,875)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-772

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,445.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,445-1,466.38	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,466.38	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,460.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$510	$4,606	+$5,251	+$1,590
+2.5%	$1,496.50 (1.7σ)	$-3,140	$4,913	+$5,558	+$1,590
+5%	$1,533.00 (2.5σ)	$-6,790	$5,220	+$5,865	+$1,590

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,485	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$8.73/sh	+$873 cycle +$1,088 [+$269…+$1,096] · 84% credit	65% surv 51%	+$7,895 SAFE cap gain +$8,540
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,529	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$6.66/sh	+$666 cycle +$881 [-$244…+$876] · 70% credit	74% surv 66%	+$12,429 SAFE cap gain +$13,074
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,504	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.61/sh	+$161 cycle +$376 [-$591…+$338] · 48% credit	71% surv 61%	+$9,214 SAFE cap gain +$9,859
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,549	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.62/sh	+$62 cycle +$277 [-$1,000…+$244] · 37% credit	78% surv 72%	+$13,993 SAFE cap gain +$14,638

Gross FIGHT income	$2,150/mo
vs 50% target ($3,349/mo)	-36%
vs normal income ($6,697/mo)	32% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,717/mo

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $1,470.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $1,470-1,487.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $1,487.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$1,485.00 (1.5σ)	$215	$7,021	+$7,666	+$3,795
+2.5%	$1,522.12 (2.3σ)	$-3,497	$7,333	+$7,978	+$3,795
+5%	$1,559.25 (3.0σ)	$-7,210	$7,645	+$8,290	+$3,795

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$1,480	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$8.82/sh	+$882 cycle +$1,143 [+$407…+$1,112] · 87% credit	65% surv 51%	+$7,407 SAFE cap gain +$8,052
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$1,524	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$6.77/sh	+$677 cycle +$938 [-$68…+$900] · 73% credit	74% surv 66%	+$11,944 SAFE cap gain +$12,589
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$1,499	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$1.70/sh	+$170 cycle +$431 [-$465…+$357] · 48% credit	71% surv 61%	+$8,727 SAFE cap gain +$9,372
Max even-money escape in the band	~$1,544	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.73/sh	+$73 cycle +$334 [-$795…+$269] · 41% credit	78% surv 72%	+$13,508 SAFE cap gain +$14,153

Gross FIGHT income	$2,610/mo
vs 50% target ($3,349/mo)	-22%
vs normal income ($6,697/mo)	39% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,177/mo