FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $263.50

BE SS: $267.92 | CC-SS: $270.56 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $263.50 UNDERWATER $4.42 (1.6% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $267.92 | CC-SS: $270.56 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $200 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $94.731/sh)

SP: $250 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.636/sh)

HP: $215 exp 2026-11-20 (entry $2.831/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$51,460	(ND $67.92 + SW $35) x 500
Normal income ref	$5,946/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$495/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,523	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,973/mo

HEDGE COVER
$495/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,946/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.7 mo to earn back $33,960

ML VELOCITY
8.7 mo to earn back $51,460

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $270.56 (probe: $270C 14d) still earns $3,536/mo (59% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-08-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-08-13

Hole (after banked)

$3,523

was $3,523 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$625

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $272.5C 28 Aug 2026	U6241782	$1.25	$625	2026-08-18

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 54 · %B 41 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $282.74 (+7%) · daily UBB $278.50 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $270.56 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $275 25 Sep 2026 (28d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $275)

72%

Touch odds

57%

Per cycle

$2,100

Income / mo

$2,250

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $272.50 2 Sep 2026 (5d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $272.50)

86%

Touch odds

28%

Per cycle

$385

Income / mo

$2,310

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.78/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $2.44–$4.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 510 simulated challenges: the $272 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $275 (overshoots $2.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$272	4 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.95/sh	+$474 cycle +$859 [+$388…+$561] · 100% credit	69% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$284	25 Sep 2026	26d left	+$1.04/sh	+$521 cycle +$906 [+$17…+$688] · 77% credit	79% surv 73%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$274	4 Sep 2026	4d left	+$0.13/sh	+$67 cycle +$452 [-$161…+$92] · 47% credit	72% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$284	18 Sep 2026	18d left	+$0.03/sh	+$13 cycle +$398 [-$530…+$139] · 34% credit	81% surv 77%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$286	18 Sep 2026	18d left	-$0.53/sh	-$267 cycle +$118 [-$874…-$160] · 16% credit	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $385 debit $267 (69% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,782/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $282.50 11 Sep 2026 (14d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $282.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$395

Income / mo

$846

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.69/sh now → $4.73 mid-life (likely $3.66–$6.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 452 simulated challenges: the $282 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 14, at $285 (overshoots $2.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$282	18 Sep 2026	14d left	+$1.26/sh	+$630 cycle +$1,025 [+$564…+$1,071] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$284	25 Sep 2026	21d left	+$1.89/sh	+$947 cycle +$1,342 [+$837…+$1,412] · 100% credit	69% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$284	18 Sep 2026	14d left	+$0.48/sh	+$241 cycle +$636 [+$129…+$593] · 88% credit	69% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$284	18 Sep 2026	14d left	+$0.48/sh	+$241 cycle +$636 [+$129…+$593] · 88% credit	69% surv 55%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$289	25 Sep 2026	21d left	-$0.26/sh	-$128 cycle +$267 [-$382…+$260] · 43% credit	75% surv 66%
budget: banked $395 debit $128 (32% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$267 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,195/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (26 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.070 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,777 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $185

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$270	5d	2 Sep 2026	$1.21	5/5	$3,630	$3,135	79%	83%	+$1,625	-$0	0.0%	$580 (vs do-nothing +$395)
$270	7d	4 Sep 2026	$1.98	4/5	$3,394	$3,630	74%	80%	+$1,318	-$0	0.0%	$809 (vs do-nothing +$624)
$270	12d	9 Sep 2026	$2.52	5/5	$3,150	$2,655	71%	78%	+$1,090	-$0	0.0%	$1,235 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$267.50	5d	2 Sep 2026	$1.87	3/5	$3,366	$4,331	69%	77%	+$1,208	-$357	1.1%	$-130 (vs do-nothing $-315)
$270	14d	11 Sep 2026	$3.30	5/5	$3,536	$3,041	69%	76%	+$1,145	-$0	0.0%	$1,625 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)
$270	21d	18 Sep 2026	$4.75	5/5	$3,393	$2,898	66%	75%	+$1,023	-$0	0.0%	$2,350 (vs do-nothing +$2,165)
$267.50	12d	9 Sep 2026	$2.92	5/5	$3,650	$3,155	64%	73%	+$664	-$70	0.2%	$185 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$270	28d	25 Sep 2026	$5.90	5/5	$3,161	$2,666	64%	74%	+$898	-$0	0.0%	$2,925 (vs do-nothing +$2,740)
$267.50	14d	11 Sep 2026	$4.15	4/5	$3,557	$3,793	62%	73%	+$958	-$0	0.0%	$677 (vs do-nothing +$492)
$267.50	21d	18 Sep 2026	$5.70	4/5	$3,257	$3,493	60%	72%	+$856	-$0	0.0%	$1,297 (vs do-nothing +$1,112)
$265	5d	2 Sep 2026	$2.85	2/5	$3,420	$5,115	58%	71%	+$982	-$542	1.6%	$-329 (vs do-nothing $-514)
$265	7d	4 Sep 2026	$3.75	2/5	$3,214	$4,910	57%	70%	+$827	-$362	1.1%	$-149 (vs do-nothing $-334)
$265	12d	9 Sep 2026	$4.35	3/5	$3,262	$4,228	56%	70%	+$740	-$363	1.1%	$-136 (vs do-nothing $-321)

Show 13 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$265	14d	11 Sep 2026	$5.40	3/5	$3,471	$4,437	55%	70%	+$878	-$48	0.1%	$179 (vs do-nothing $-6)
$265	21d	18 Sep 2026	$6.85	4/5	$3,914	$4,150	55%	69%	+$914	-$0	0.0%	$757 (vs do-nothing +$572)
$265	28d	25 Sep 2026	$8.10	4/5	$3,471	$3,707	54%	69%	+$790	-$0	0.0%	$1,257 (vs do-nothing +$1,072)
$262.50	21d	18 Sep 2026	$8.15	3/5	$3,493	$4,458	49%	67%	+$718	-$0	0.0%	$254 (vs do-nothing +$69)
$262.50	14d	11 Sep 2026	$6.55	3/5	$4,211	$5,176	48%	67%	+$834	-$453	1.3%	$-226 (vs do-nothing $-411)
$262.50	12d	9 Sep 2026	$5.60	3/5	$4,200	$5,165	48%	66%	+$757	-$738	2.2%	$-511 (vs do-nothing $-696)
$262.50	5d	2 Sep 2026	$4.00	2/5	$4,800	$6,495	46%	66%	+$924	-$812	2.4%	$-599 (vs do-nothing $-784)
$260	28d	25 Sep 2026	$10.85	3/5	$3,488	$4,453	45%	65%	+$632	-$0	0.0%	$314 (vs do-nothing +$129)
$260	21d	18 Sep 2026	$9.60	3/5	$4,114	$5,080	43%	65%	+$740	-$288	0.8%	$-61 (vs do-nothing $-246)
$260	14d	11 Sep 2026	$8.00	2/5	$3,429	$5,124	41%	64%	+$561	-$512	1.5%	$-299 (vs do-nothing $-484)
$260	12d	9 Sep 2026	$6.55	2/5	$3,275	$4,970	39%	62%	+$238	-$802	2.4%	$-589 (vs do-nothing $-774)
$260	7d	4 Sep 2026	$6.55	2/5	$5,614	$7,310	37%	63%	+$907	-$802	2.4%	$-589 (vs do-nothing $-774)
$260	5d	2 Sep 2026	$5.50	1/5	$3,300	$5,725	34%	61%	+$416	-$506	1.5%	$-307 (vs do-nothing $-492)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-28 22:49