FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $246.27

BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $246.27 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | 2026-07-07 21:39 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $246.27 UNDERWATER $9.98 (3.9% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $246.27 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)

SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)

HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$67,500	(ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000
Normal income ref	$10,038/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,001/mo
Unrealized P&L	$6,750	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,019/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,001/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$10,038/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $37,500

ML VELOCITY
6.7 mo to earn back $67,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $246.27 (probe: $247.5C 13d) still earns $10,038/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$843

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 81 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $287.04 (+17%) · daily UBB $250.37 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 10 contracts at $260 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 92%, breach 8%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,019/mo); it brings $5,200/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 9 × $255/3d for $10,980/mo, but breach risk rises to 17% (+9pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $265/3d (97% survival, $2,200/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $256, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $6,720 and cuts bleed by $2,001/mo.

📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 10 contracts. 🎯 marks the recommendation, the safest strike that still clears the income floor (50% of normal), shown first; it hands off to the 🛡 safe-yield rung when that rung buys meaningful survival for little income. 🛡 safe yield inverts the objective (survival pinned ≥90%, max income available there, all contracts); then 33%, 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $260 (primary), 92% survival, breach 8%, $5,200/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $262.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 95% (breach 8% → 5%) for $1,800/mo less (35% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

AMZN spot $246.27

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
cover hedge	10 × $265	10 Jul	3d	7.6%	97%	3%	$2,200	-$3,000	$0
33% normal	10 × $262.50	10 Jul	3d	6.6%	95%	5%	$3,400	-$1,800	$0
🎯 50% normal	10 × $260	10 Jul	3d	5.6%	92%	8%	$5,200	—	$0
100% normal	9 × $255	10 Jul	3d	3.5%	83%	17%	$10,980	+$5,780	$0
📅 next weekly	10 × $257.50	13 Jul	6d	4.6%	85%	15%	$5,400	+$200	$0

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on AMZN are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 10×$260, 5.6% OTM, 92% surv

Sell 10 × $260 5.6% OTM over spot $246.27 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.55 mid)

= $520 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $260)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $260.55)

93%

EV / mo

+$3,425

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,892

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$271 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.83/sh now → $3.41 mid-life (likely $3.10–$5.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 276 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $263 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$260	13 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.69/sh	+$694 cycle +$1,214 [+$534…+$1,128] · 93% credit	69% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$269	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.61/sh	+$614 cycle +$1,134 [-$357…+$1,018] · 64% credit	77% surv 70%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$261	13 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.03/sh	+$34 cycle +$554 [-$370…+$382] · 57% credit	71% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$271	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.12/sh	-$115 cycle +$405 [-$1,261…+$267] · 37% credit	79% surv 74%
budget: banked $520 debit $115 (22% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$405 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,181/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,200/mo
vs 50% target ($5,019/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($10,038/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,199/mo

Downside budget

✓ $260 is at/above CC-SS $246.27: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($37,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($67,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$6,720

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $260.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $260)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $257.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $257-260.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $260.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$260.00 (1.8σ)	$520	$19,311	+$12,561	+$2,470
+2.5%	$266.50 (2.6σ)	$-5,980	$18,512	+$11,762	+$2,470
+5%	$273.00 (3.4σ)	$-12,480	$17,712	+$10,962	+$2,470

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $246.27, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $6,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $260): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,750 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,800 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,050, the opportunity cost of earning $5,200/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal · sell 10×$262.50, 6.6% OTM, 95% surv

Sell 10 × $262.50 6.6% OTM over spot $246.27 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.35 mid)

= $340 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,400/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $262.50)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $262.85)

95%

EV / mo

+$2,411

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,105

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$274 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Buyback gross: $4.87/sh now → $3.44 mid-life (likely $3.16–$5.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 137 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $266 (overshoots $3.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$262	13 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.65/sh	+$647 cycle +$987 [+$409…+$1,137] · 85% credit	69% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$269	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.44/sh	+$1,443 cycle +$1,783 [+$419…+$1,938] · 79% credit	74% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$271	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.56/sh	+$561 cycle +$901 [-$606…+$1,002] · 60% credit	77% surv 70%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$274	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.17/sh	-$168 cycle +$172 [-$1,522…+$212] · 34% credit	79% surv 74%
budget: banked $340 debit $168 (49% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$172 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,144/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,400/mo
vs 50% target ($5,019/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($10,038/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,399/mo

Downside budget

✓ $262.50 is at/above CC-SS $246.27: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($37,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($67,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$6,740

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $262.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $262)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $259.88	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $260-262.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $262.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$262.50 (2.1σ)	$340	$21,324	+$14,574	+$4,790
+2.5%	$269.06 (2.9σ)	$-6,222	$20,517	+$13,767	+$4,790
+5%	$275.62 (3.8σ)	$-12,785	$19,709	+$12,959	+$4,790

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $246.27, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $6,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $262.50): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,750 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,800 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,050, the opportunity cost of earning $3,400/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 9×$255, 3.5% OTM, 83% surv

Sell 9 × $255 3.5% OTM over spot $246.27 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.25 mid)

= $1,098 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,980/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $255)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $256.25)

86%

EV / mo

+$5,913

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,914

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$271 @ 85% POP

82% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.73/sh now → $3.35 mid-life (likely $3.63–$6.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 630 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $258 (overshoots $3.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$255	13 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.79/sh	+$708 cycle +$1,806 [+$282…+$951] · 90% credit	69% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$261	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.60/sh	+$1,440 cycle +$2,538 [+$208…+$1,551] · 80% credit	74% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$264	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.72/sh	+$644 cycle +$1,742 [-$779…+$678] · 52% credit	77% surv 69%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$256	13 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.13/sh	+$113 cycle +$1,211 [-$539…+$265] · 40% credit	71% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$271	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.13/sh	-$1,015 cycle +$83 [-$2,911…-$1,114] · 0% credit	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $1,098 debit $1,015 (92% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,743/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,980/mo
vs 50% target ($5,019/mo)	+119%
vs normal income ($10,038/mo)	109% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,894/mo

Downside budget

✓ $255 is at/above CC-SS $246.27: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($37,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($67,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$6,052

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.22 collected) or spot ≥ $256.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $252.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $252-256.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $256.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$255.00 (1.1σ)	$1,098	$15,809	+$9,059	-$1,647
+2.5%	$261.38 (1.9σ)	$-4,640	$15,025	+$8,275	-$1,647
+5%	$267.75 (2.7σ)	$-10,377	$14,241	+$7,491	-$1,647

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $246.27, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $6,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $255): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $255): +$305

Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,055 (+$305 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,800 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,745, the opportunity cost of earning $10,980/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 10×$265, 7.6% OTM, 97% surv

Sell 10 × $265 7.6% OTM over spot $246.27 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.23 mid)

= $220 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $265)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $265.23)

97%

EV / mo

+$1,642

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,258

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$274 @ 77% POP

70% survival

Buyback gross: $4.92/sh now → $3.48 mid-life (likely $3.03–$5.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 82 simulated challenges: the $265 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $268 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$265	13 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.60/sh	+$598 cycle +$818 [+$610…+$1,107] · 83% credit	69% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$274	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.51/sh	+$505 cycle +$725 [-$331…+$976] · 66% credit	77% surv 70%

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,200/mo
vs 50% target ($5,019/mo)	-56%
vs normal income ($10,038/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$199/mo

Downside budget

✓ $265 is at/above CC-SS $246.27: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($37,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($67,500)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$6,740

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $265.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $265)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $262.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $262-265.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $265.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$265.00 (2.4σ)	$220	$23,396	+$16,646	+$7,170
+2.5%	$271.62 (3.2σ)	$-6,405	$22,581	+$15,831	+$7,170
+5%	$278.25 (4.1σ)	$-13,030	$21,766	+$15,016	+$7,170

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $246.27, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $6,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $265): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,750 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,800 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,050, the opportunity cost of earning $2,200/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 43 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.877 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $9,800

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$260	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.52	10/10	$5,200	$3,199	92%	93%	+$3,425	-$0	0.0%	$7,270 (vs do-nothing $-2,530)
$257.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.80	7/10	$5,600	$6,344	88%	90%	+$3,372	-$0	0.0%	$8,225 (vs do-nothing $-1,575)
$257.50	6d	13 Jul 2026	$1.08	10/10	$5,400	$3,399	85%	87%	+$2,791	-$0	0.0%	$7,830 (vs do-nothing $-1,970)
$255	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.22	5/10	$6,100	$8,674	83%	86%	+$3,285	-$0	0.0%	$8,885 (vs do-nothing $-915)
$257.50	8d	15 Jul 2026	$1.56	9/10	$5,265	$4,179	81%	84%	+$2,138	-$0	0.0%	$8,459 (vs do-nothing $-1,341)
$255	6d	13 Jul 2026	$1.58	7/10	$5,530	$6,274	80%	84%	+$2,591	-$0	0.0%	$8,771 (vs do-nothing $-1,029)
$257.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.40	7/10	$5,040	$5,784	78%	82%	+$2,113	-$0	0.0%	$9,345 (vs do-nothing $-455)
$260	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.00	10/10	$5,294	$3,293	77%	82%	+$2,032	-$0	0.0%	$9,750 (vs do-nothing $-50)
$255	8d	15 Jul 2026	$2.35	6/10	$5,288	$6,946	76%	81%	+$2,252	-$0	0.0%	$9,380 (vs do-nothing $-420)
$252.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.82	3/10	$5,460	$9,864	75%	81%	+$2,552	-$0	0.0%	$9,431 (vs do-nothing $-369)
$257.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.70	8/10	$5,224	$5,052	73%	79%	+$1,868	-$0	0.0%	$10,320 (vs do-nothing +$520)
$252.50	6d	13 Jul 2026	$2.25	5/10	$5,625	$8,199	73%	79%	+$2,317	-$0	0.0%	$9,400 (vs do-nothing $-400)
$255	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.05	6/10	$5,490	$7,149	73%	79%	+$2,038	-$0	0.0%	$9,800 (vs do-nothing +$0)

Show 30 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$252.50	8d	15 Jul 2026	$2.87	5/10	$5,381	$7,955	70%	77%	+$1,764	-$0	0.0%	$9,710 (vs do-nothing $-90)
$255	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.45	7/10	$5,497	$6,241	69%	77%	+$1,761	-$0	0.0%	$10,780 (vs do-nothing +$980)
$252.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.85	5/10	$5,775	$8,349	67%	76%	+$1,879	-$0	0.0%	$10,200 (vs do-nothing +$400)
$250	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.65	2/10	$5,300	$10,619	66%	76%	+$2,098	-$0	0.0%	$9,720 (vs do-nothing $-80)
$252.50	13d	20 Jul 2026	$2.42	9/10	$5,026	$3,940	66%	74%	$-1,016	-$0	0.0%	$9,233 (vs do-nothing $-567)
$250	6d	13 Jul 2026	$3.00	4/10	$6,000	$9,489	65%	75%	+$1,952	-$0	0.0%	$9,780 (vs do-nothing $-20)
$252.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.35	6/10	$5,665	$7,323	64%	74%	+$1,634	-$0	0.0%	$11,180 (vs do-nothing +$1,380)
$250	8d	15 Jul 2026	$3.80	4/10	$5,700	$9,189	63%	74%	+$1,647	-$0	0.0%	$10,100 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$250	13d	20 Jul 2026	$4.90	5/10	$5,654	$8,228	60%	72%	+$1,282	-$0	0.0%	$10,725 (vs do-nothing +$925)
$250	15d	22 Jul 2026	$3.80	7/10	$5,320	$6,064	60%	73%	$-230	-$0	0.0%	$10,325 (vs do-nothing +$525)
$250	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.45	5/10	$5,691	$8,265	59%	72%	+$1,513	-$0	0.0%	$11,500 (vs do-nothing +$1,700)
$247.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.70	2/10	$7,400	$12,719	56%	71%	+$2,357	-$0	0.0%	$9,930 (vs do-nothing +$130)
$247.50	6d	13 Jul 2026	$4.15	3/10	$6,225	$10,629	55%	71%	+$1,744	-$0	0.0%	$10,130 (vs do-nothing +$330)
$247.50	8d	15 Jul 2026	$4.95	3/10	$5,569	$9,972	55%	71%	+$1,412	-$0	0.0%	$10,370 (vs do-nothing +$570)
$247.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$5.95	3/10	$5,355	$9,759	54%	70%	+$1,298	-$0	0.0%	$10,670 (vs do-nothing +$870)
$247.50	13d	20 Jul 2026	$4.35	5/10	$5,019	$7,593	54%	68%	$-584	-$0	0.0%	$10,450 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$247.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.55	4/10	$5,329	$8,818	54%	69%	+$1,220	-$0	0.0%	$11,600 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$245	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.85	4/10	$6,247	$9,736	49%	67%	+$1,258	-$0	0.0%	$11,612 (vs do-nothing +$1,812)
$245	15d	22 Jul 2026	$6.40	4/10	$5,120	$8,609	48%	67%	+$103	-$0	0.0%	$10,632 (vs do-nothing +$832)
$245	13d	20 Jul 2026	$6.10	4/10	$5,631	$9,119	48%	66%	$-10	-$0	0.0%	$10,512 (vs do-nothing +$712)
$245	10d	17 Jul 2026	$7.35	3/10	$6,615	$11,019	48%	67%	+$1,427	-$0	0.0%	$10,709 (vs do-nothing +$909)
$245	8d	15 Jul 2026	$6.15	3/10	$6,919	$11,322	47%	67%	+$1,374	-$0	0.0%	$10,349 (vs do-nothing +$549)
$245	6d	13 Jul 2026	$5.50	2/10	$5,500	$10,819	46%	67%	+$1,262	-$0	0.0%	$10,036 (vs do-nothing +$236)
$245	3d	10 Jul 2026	$4.95	2/10	$9,900	$15,219	45%	67%	+$2,357	-$0	0.0%	$9,926 (vs do-nothing +$126)
$242.50	17d	24 Jul 2026	$10.30	3/10	$5,453	$9,857	44%	65%	+$966	-$0	0.0%	$10,844 (vs do-nothing +$1,044)
$242.50	13d	20 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/10	$5,331	$9,734	42%	64%	+$97	-$0	0.0%	$10,064 (vs do-nothing +$264)
$242.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$8.75	2/10	$5,250	$10,569	41%	65%	+$916	-$0	0.0%	$10,186 (vs do-nothing +$386)
$242.50	8d	15 Jul 2026	$6.85	2/10	$5,138	$10,456	39%	64%	+$333	-$0	0.0%	$9,806 (vs do-nothing +$6)
$242.50	6d	13 Jul 2026	$7.05	2/10	$7,050	$12,369	37%	64%	+$1,274	-$0	0.0%	$9,846 (vs do-nothing +$46)
$242.50	3d	10 Jul 2026	$6.70	1/10	$6,700	$12,934	35%	64%	+$1,348	-$0	0.0%	$9,788 (vs do-nothing $-12)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 21:39