AMZN @ $245.26 UNDERWATER $10.99 (4.3% below BE SS)
10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $245.26 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)
SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)
HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $67,500 | (ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $13,119/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,053/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $5,825 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,560/mo
HEDGE COVER
$2,053/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$13,119/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.9 mo to earn back $37,500
ML VELOCITY
5.1 mo to earn back $67,500
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $245.26 (probe: $245C 13d) still earns $13,119/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$843
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 56 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 76 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $287.04 (+17%) · daily UBB $250.20 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 10 contracts at $255 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 86%, breach 14%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($6,560/mo); it brings $7,100/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 8 × $250/3d for $14,560/mo, but breach risk rises to 29% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 8 × $260/3d (94% survival, $2,320/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $256, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $5,800 and cuts bleed by $2,053/mo.
📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
🏆
Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 10 Jul 2026 (3d) · sell
10 × $255, 86% survival,
$7,100/mo (E[net]
$2,097/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income − P(touch) × escape cost. Each has its own full ladder.| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 3d | 10 × $255 | 86% | $7,100 | $2,097 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 10d | 10 × $255 | 76% | $7,080 | $1,779 |
📅 THIS FRIDAY · 10 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $2,097/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK
🎯
Engine pick: sell
10 × $255 (primary),
86% survival, breach
14%,
$7,100/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so
take the income. Stepping out to the
$257.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to
91% (breach 14% → 9%) for
$2,700/mo less (38% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
AMZN spot $245.26
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Breach | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up |
|---|
| cover hedge | 8 × $260 | 10 Jul | 3d | 6.0% | 94% | 6% | $2,320 | -$4,780 | $0 |
| 33% normal | 10 × $257.50 | 10 Jul | 3d | 5.0% | 91% | 9% | $4,400 | -$2,700 | $0 |
| 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $255 | 10 Jul | 3d | 4.0% | 86% | 14% | $7,100 | — | $0 |
| 100% normal | 8 × $250 | 10 Jul | 3d | 1.9% | 71% | 29% | $14,560 | +$7,460 | $0 |
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on AMZN are the tiebreakers.
🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 10×$255, 4.0% OTM, 86% surv
Sell 10 × $255 4.0% OTM over spot $245.26 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.73 mid)
= $710 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,100/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $255)
86%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
18%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,090
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$270 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.96/sh now → $2.80 mid-life (likely $2.75–$5.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 536 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $258 (overshoots $2.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$255 | 13 Jul 2026 | 4d left | +$0.77/sh | +$773 cycle +$1,483 [+$434…+$1,051] · 95% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$262 | 24 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$1.38/sh | +$1,376 cycle +$2,086 [+$282…+$1,628] · 82% credit | 74% surv 67% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$265 | 24 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.59/sh | +$594 cycle +$1,304 [-$695…+$799] · 58% credit | 77% surv 72% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$270 | 24 Jul 2026 | 16d left | -$0.60/sh | -$599 cycle +$111 [-$2,271…-$462] · 8% credit | 83% surv 80% |
| budget: banked $710 debit $599 (84% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,128/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,100/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,560/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($13,119/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,047/mo |
Downside budget
✓ $255 is at/above CC-SS $245.26: assignment is break-even or better.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($37,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($67,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $5,800 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $255.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $252.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$252-255.74 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $255.74 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $255.00 (1.2σ) | $710 | $15,053 | +$9,228 | -$1,650 |
| +2.5% | $261.38 (2.1σ) | $-5,665 | $14,256 | +$8,431 | -$1,650 |
| +5% | $267.75 (2.9σ) | $-12,040 | $13,459 | +$7,634 | -$1,650 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $245.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $5,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $255): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,825 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,360, the opportunity cost of earning $7,100/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal · sell 10×$257.50, 5.0% OTM, 91% surv
Sell 10 × $257.50 5.0% OTM over spot $245.26 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.46 mid)
= $440 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,400/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $257.50)
91%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,388
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$270 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.00/sh now → $2.83 mid-life (likely $2.70–$5.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $260 (overshoots $2.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$258 | 13 Jul 2026 | 4d left | +$0.73/sh | +$734 cycle +$1,174 [+$477…+$1,043] · 94% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$267 | 24 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.55/sh | +$550 cycle +$990 [-$529…+$799] · 61% credit | 77% surv 72% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$270 | 24 Jul 2026 | 16d left | -$0.12/sh | -$124 cycle +$316 [-$1,395…+$94] · 28% credit | 80% surv 76% |
| budget: banked $440 debit $124 (28% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$316 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,069/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,560/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($13,119/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,347/mo |
Downside budget
✓ $257.50 is at/above CC-SS $245.26: assignment is break-even or better.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($37,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($67,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $5,805 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $257.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $254.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$255-257.96 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $257.96 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $257.50 (1.6σ) | $440 | $16,971 | +$11,146 | +$580 |
| +2.5% | $263.94 (2.4σ) | $-5,998 | $16,166 | +$10,341 | +$580 |
| +5% | $270.38 (3.2σ) | $-12,435 | $15,361 | +$9,536 | +$580 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $245.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $5,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $257.50): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,825 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,360, the opportunity cost of earning $4,400/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal · sell 8×$250, 1.9% OTM, 71% surv
Sell 8 × $250 1.9% OTM over spot $245.26 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.83 mid)
= $1,456 credit for the 3d cycle → $14,560/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $250)
71%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
40%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$740
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$272 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.88/sh now → $2.75 mid-life (likely $3.31–$5.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,193 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $253 (overshoots $3.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$250 | 13 Jul 2026 | 4d left | +$0.85/sh | +$678 cycle +$2,134 [+$292…+$778] · 92% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$257 | 24 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$1.46/sh | +$1,169 cycle +$2,625 [+$73…+$1,024] · 77% credit | 74% surv 67% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$262 | 24 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.00/sh | +$1 cycle +$1,457 [-$1,424…-$277] · 16% credit | 80% surv 76% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$272 | 24 Jul 2026 | 16d left | -$1.65/sh | -$1,317 cycle +$139 [-$3,252…-$1,679] | 90% surv 89% |
| budget: banked $1,456 debit $1,317 (90% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$139 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,648/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,560/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,560/mo) | +122% |
| vs normal income ($13,119/mo) | 111% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,923/mo |
Downside budget
✓ $250 is at/above CC-SS $245.26: assignment is break-even or better.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($37,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($67,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $4,652 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.82 collected) or spot ≥ $251.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $250)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $247.50 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$248-251.83 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $251.83 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $250.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,456 | $11,896 | +$6,071 | -$432 |
| +2.5% | $256.25 (1.4σ) | $-3,544 | $12,115 | +$6,290 | -$4,432 |
| +5% | $262.50 (2.2σ) | $-8,544 | $11,334 | +$5,509 | -$4,432 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $245.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $5,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $250): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $255): +$472
Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,297 (+$472 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,888, the opportunity cost of earning $14,560/mo FIGHT income now)
cover hedge · sell 8×$260, 6.0% OTM, 94% surv
Sell 8 × $260 6.0% OTM over spot $245.26 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.30 mid)
= $232 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,320/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $260)
94%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,052
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$272 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.04/sh now → $2.86 mid-life (likely $2.59–$4.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 191 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $263 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$260 | 13 Jul 2026 | 4d left | +$0.69/sh | +$555 cycle +$787 [+$460…+$812] · 96% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$270 | 24 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.50/sh | +$403 cycle +$635 [-$230…+$677] · 63% credit | 77% surv 72% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$272 | 24 Jul 2026 | 16d left | -$0.17/sh | -$135 cycle +$97 [-$882…+$116] · 35% credit | 80% surv 76% |
| budget: banked $232 debit $135 (58% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $4,029/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,320/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,560/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($13,119/mo) | 18% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,683/mo |
Downside budget
✓ $260 is at/above CC-SS $245.26: assignment is break-even or better.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($37,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($67,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $4,652 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $260.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $260)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $257.40 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$257-260.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $260.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $260.00 (1.9σ) | $232 | $18,422 | +$12,597 | +$2,344 |
| +2.5% | $266.50 (2.7σ) | $-4,968 | $17,610 | +$11,785 | +$2,344 |
| +5% | $273.00 (3.6σ) | $-10,168 | $16,797 | +$10,972 | +$2,344 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $245.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $5,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $260): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $255): +$472
Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,297 (+$472 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,888, the opportunity cost of earning $2,320/mo FIGHT income now)
📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 10d · E[net] $1,779/mo
🎯
Engine pick: sell
10 × $255 (primary),
76% survival, breach
24%,
$7,080/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the
$257.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to
80% (breach 24% → 20%) for
$2,301/mo less (32% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
AMZN spot $245.26
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Breach | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up |
|---|
| cover hedge | 10 × $265 | 17 Jul | 10d | 8.0% | 91% | 9% | $2,250 | -$4,830 | $0 |
| 33% normal | 9 × $257.50 | 17 Jul | 10d | 5.0% | 80% | 20% | $4,779 | -$2,301 | $0 |
| 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $255 | 17 Jul | 10d | 4.0% | 76% | 24% | $7,080 | — | $0 |
| 100% normal | 10 × $247.50 | 17 Jul | 10d | 0.9% | 57% | 43% | $14,550 | +$7,470 | $0 |
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on AMZN are the tiebreakers.
🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 10×$255, 4.0% OTM, 76% surv
Sell 10 × $255 4.0% OTM over spot $245.26 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.40 mid)
= $2,360 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,080/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $255)
76%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
39%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,171
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$265 @ 79% POP
74% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.41/sh now → $4.53 mid-life (likely $5.08–$7.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,170 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $258 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$257 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.77/sh | +$766 cycle +$3,126 [+$96…+$775] · 81% credit | 69% surv 57% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$255 | 20 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$2,367 [-$582…+$61] · 27% credit | 65% surv 51% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$265 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$1.88/sh | -$1,881 cycle +$479 [-$3,147…-$2,165] · 0% credit | 79% surv 74% |
| budget: banked $2,360 debit $1,881 (80% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$479 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,625/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,080/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,560/mo) | +8% |
| vs normal income ($13,119/mo) | 54% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $5,027/mo |
Downside budget
✓ $255 is at/above CC-SS $245.26: assignment is break-even or better.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($37,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($67,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $5,790 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.36 collected) or spot ≥ $257.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $252.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$252-257.39 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $257.39 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $255.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,360 | $16,703 | +$10,878 | +$0 |
| +2.5% | $261.38 (1.1σ) | $-4,015 | $15,906 | +$10,081 | +$0 |
| +5% | $267.75 (1.6σ) | $-10,390 | $15,109 | +$9,284 | +$0 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $245.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $5,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $255): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,825 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,360, the opportunity cost of earning $7,080/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal · sell 9×$257.50, 5.0% OTM, 80% surv
Sell 9 × $257.50 5.0% OTM over spot $245.26 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.82 mid)
= $1,593 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,779/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $257.50)
80%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
33%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,525
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$265 @ 76% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.47/sh now → $4.58 mid-life (likely $4.62–$7.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 991 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $260 (overshoots $2.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (9 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$260 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.71/sh | +$635 cycle +$2,228 [+$69…+$869] · 81% credit | 69% surv 57% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$258 | 20 Jul 2026 | 8d left | -$0.05/sh | -$45 cycle +$1,548 [-$533…+$206] · 33% credit | 65% surv 51% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$265 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$1.21/sh | -$1,090 cycle +$503 [-$2,007…-$1,071] · 6% credit | 76% surv 69% |
| budget: banked $1,593 debit $1,090 (68% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$503 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $7,570/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,779/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,560/mo) | -27% |
| vs normal income ($13,119/mo) | 36% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,434/mo |
Downside budget
✓ $257.50 is at/above CC-SS $245.26: assignment is break-even or better.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($37,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($67,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (9 ct) | $5,198 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.77 collected) or spot ≥ $259.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $254.93 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$255-259.32 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $259.32 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $257.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,593 | $18,110 | +$12,285 | +$1,719 |
| +2.5% | $263.94 (1.3σ) | $-4,201 | $17,305 | +$11,480 | +$1,719 |
| +5% | $270.38 (1.8σ) | $-9,994 | $16,500 | +$10,675 | +$1,719 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $245.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $5,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $257.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $255): +$236
Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,061 (+$236 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,124, the opportunity cost of earning $4,779/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal · sell 10×$247.50, 0.9% OTM, 57% surv
Sell 10 × $247.50 0.9% OTM over spot $245.26 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.97 mid)
= $4,850 credit for the 10d cycle → $14,550/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $247.50)
57%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
72%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$452
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$267 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.22/sh now → $4.40 mid-life (likely $5.94–$8.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,165 simulated challenges: the $248 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $250 (overshoots $2.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$250 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.94/sh | +$935 cycle +$5,785 [+$26…+$496] · 77% credit | 69% surv 57% |
| SS $256 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$248 | 20 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.17/sh | +$171 cycle +$5,021 [-$647…-$214] · 15% credit | 65% surv 51% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$267 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$3.48/sh | -$3,478 cycle +$1,372 [-$6,079…-$4,516] | 90% surv 89% |
| budget: banked $4,850 debit $3,478 (72% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,372 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,299/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,550/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,560/mo) | +122% |
| vs normal income ($13,119/mo) | 111% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $12,497/mo |
Downside budget
✓ $247.50 is at/above CC-SS $245.26: assignment is break-even or better.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($37,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($67,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $5,700 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.21/sh (~25% of the $4.85 collected) or spot ≥ $252.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $248)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $245.03 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$245-252.47 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $252.47 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $247.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,850 | $12,631 | +$6,806 | +$2,490 |
| +2.5% | $253.69 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,337 | $11,857 | +$6,032 | -$3,697 |
| +5% | $259.88 (1.0σ) | $-7,525 | $11,084 | +$5,259 | -$5,010 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $245.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $5,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $247.50): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,825 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,360, the opportunity cost of earning $14,550/mo FIGHT income now)
cover hedge · sell 10×$265, 8.0% OTM, 91% surv
Sell 10 × $265 8.0% OTM over spot $245.26 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.77 mid)
= $750 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,250/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $265)
91%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,958
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$270 @ 73% POP
63% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.66/sh now → $4.71 mid-life (likely $4.16–$6.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 406 simulated challenges: the $265 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $268 (overshoots $2.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$267 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.52/sh | +$519 cycle +$1,269 [+$134…+$1,146] · 81% credit | 69% surv 57% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$265 | 20 Jul 2026 | 8d left | -$0.23/sh | -$228 cycle +$522 [-$529…+$387] · 42% credit | 65% surv 51% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$270 | 24 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$0.51/sh | -$506 cycle +$244 [-$1,112…-$34] · 23% credit | 73% surv 63% |
| budget: banked $750 debit $506 (67% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$244 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $10,507/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,560/mo) | -66% |
| vs normal income ($13,119/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $197/mo |
Downside budget
✓ $265 is at/above CC-SS $245.26: assignment is break-even or better.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($37,500) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($67,500) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $5,805 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $265.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $265)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $262.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$262-265.77 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $265.77 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $265.00 (1.4σ) | $750 | $23,843 | +$18,018 | +$8,390 |
| +2.5% | $271.62 (1.9σ) | $-5,875 | $23,015 | +$17,190 | +$8,390 |
| +5% | $278.25 (2.3σ) | $-12,500 | $22,187 | +$16,362 | +$8,390 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $245.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $5,825
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $265): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,825 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,360, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now)
FIGHT CC options
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.875 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $8,185
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $255 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 10/10 | $7,100 | $5,047 | 86% | 88% | +$3,287 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,535 (vs do-nothing $-1,650) |
| $252.50 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 6/10 | $6,900 | $7,679 | 79% | 83% | +$2,688 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,459 (vs do-nothing $-726) |
| $252.50 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.54 | 9/10 | $6,930 | $5,585 | 76% | 80% | +$2,165 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,447 (vs do-nothing $-738) |
| $255 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.36 | 10/10 | $7,080 | $5,027 | 76% | 80% | +$2,402 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,185 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $252.50 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 9/10 | $7,290 | $5,945 | 72% | 78% | +$1,707 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,005 (vs do-nothing $-180) |
| $255 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 10/10 | $6,618 | $4,564 | 71% | 77% | +$1,874 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,575 (vs do-nothing +$1,390) |
| $250 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.82 | 4/10 | $7,280 | $9,475 | 71% | 77% | +$2,348 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,969 (vs do-nothing $-216) |
| $252.50 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 8/10 | $7,200 | $6,563 | 70% | 77% | +$2,009 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,697 (vs do-nothing +$512) |
| $250 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 6/10 | $6,960 | $7,739 | 68% | 76% | +$1,949 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,161 (vs do-nothing $-24) |
| $252.50 | 13d | 20 Jul 2026 | $2.89 | 10/10 | $6,669 | $4,616 | 68% | 75% | +$458 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,715 (vs do-nothing +$530) |
| $252.50 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 9/10 | $7,226 | $5,881 | 66% | 75% | +$1,792 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,156 (vs do-nothing +$1,971) |
| $250 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $2.97 | 6/10 | $6,682 | $7,461 | 65% | 74% | +$1,386 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,551 (vs do-nothing +$366) |
| $250 | 13d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 8/10 | $7,477 | $6,839 | 63% | 73% | +$1,383 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,537 (vs do-nothing +$1,352) |
Show 21 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $250 | 15d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 8/10 | $6,880 | $6,243 | 62% | 72% | +$736 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,737 (vs do-nothing +$1,552) |
| $250 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 7/10 | $6,794 | $6,865 | 61% | 72% | +$1,482 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,383 (vs do-nothing +$2,198) |
| $247.50 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.69 | 3/10 | $8,070 | $10,973 | 61% | 72% | +$1,956 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,284 (vs do-nothing +$99) |
| $247.50 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 5/10 | $7,625 | $9,112 | 59% | 70% | +$1,296 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,530 (vs do-nothing +$345) |
| $247.50 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 5/10 | $7,312 | $8,799 | 58% | 70% | +$1,183 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,955 (vs do-nothing +$770) |
| $247.50 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 5/10 | $7,275 | $8,762 | 57% | 70% | +$1,405 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,430 (vs do-nothing +$1,245) |
| $247.50 | 13d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 6/10 | $6,715 | $7,494 | 57% | 69% | +$516 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,679 (vs do-nothing +$1,494) |
| $247.50 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 6/10 | $6,935 | $7,714 | 56% | 69% | +$1,286 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,699 (vs do-nothing +$2,514) |
| $245 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.75 | 5/10 | $6,838 | $8,325 | 51% | 67% | +$1,075 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,748 (vs do-nothing +$2,563) |
| $245 | 15d | 22 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 6/10 | $7,800 | $8,579 | 51% | 67% | +$630 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,510 (vs do-nothing +$2,325) |
| $245 | 13d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 5/10 | $6,865 | $8,352 | 51% | 66% | +$512 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,848 (vs do-nothing +$1,663) |
| $245 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 4/10 | $7,260 | $9,455 | 50% | 67% | +$1,148 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,555 (vs do-nothing +$1,370) |
| $245 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/10 | $7,800 | $9,995 | 50% | 67% | +$1,169 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,215 (vs do-nothing +$1,030) |
| $245 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/10 | $8,600 | $10,795 | 50% | 66% | +$1,248 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,855 (vs do-nothing +$670) |
| $245 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 2/10 | $7,400 | $11,011 | 50% | 66% | +$1,072 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,400 (vs do-nothing +$215) |
| $242.50 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.10 | 5/10 | $8,029 | $9,516 | 46% | 65% | +$1,067 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,173 (vs do-nothing +$1,988) |
| $242.50 | 13d | 20 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 4/10 | $6,785 | $8,979 | 44% | 64% | +$415 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,075 (vs do-nothing +$890) |
| $242.50 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 3/10 | $6,705 | $9,608 | 44% | 64% | +$870 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,883 (vs do-nothing +$698) |
| $242.50 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/10 | $7,256 | $10,159 | 42% | 63% | +$715 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,583 (vs do-nothing +$398) |
| $242.50 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 3/10 | $8,400 | $11,303 | 40% | 62% | +$733 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,328 (vs do-nothing +$143) |
| $242.50 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 2/10 | $10,300 | $13,911 | 39% | 62% | +$1,041 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,190 (vs do-nothing +$5) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.
Legend
| BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike) | The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS. |
| Max Loss (ML) | Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike. |
| Normal income | At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS). |
| 50% income floor | The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it |
| Hedge rolling cost | Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares |
| POP (mid) | Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available |
| Survival | Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike) |
| EV/mo | Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%) |
| CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike) | The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager). |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS | (CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS. |
| %IC / %ML | Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary) |
| Recovery months | Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income |
| Conservative CC | Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts |