10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $244.06 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $67,500 | (ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,346/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,070/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $5,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 3d | 8 × $252.50 | 86% | $6,720 | $2,201 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 10d | 9 × $252.50 | 73% | $6,858 | $1,689 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Breach | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 7 × $257.50 | 10 Jul | 3d | 5.5% | 93% | 7% | $217 | $2,170 | -$4,550 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $257.50 5.5% OTM over spot $244.06 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.32 mid) = $217 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,170/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $257.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $257.82) 93% EV / mo +$1,209 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,667 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $268 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.81/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $2.56–$4.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 240 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $260 (overshoots $2.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $257.50 is at/above CC-SS $244.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $257.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $244.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $5,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $257.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $255): +$579 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,704 (+$579 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,351, the opportunity cost of earning $2,170/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $257.50 | 10 Jul | 3d | 5.5% | 93% | 7% | $310 | $3,100 | -$3,620 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $257.50 5.5% OTM over spot $244.06 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.32 mid) = $310 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $257.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $257.82) 93% EV / mo +$1,727 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,382 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $268 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.81/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $2.52–$4.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 269 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $260 (overshoots $2.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $257.50 is at/above CC-SS $244.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $257.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $244.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $5,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $257.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,125 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,930, the opportunity cost of earning $3,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 8 × $255 | 10 Jul | 3d | 4.5% | 89% | 11% | $416 | $4,160 | -$2,560 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $255 4.5% OTM over spot $244.06 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.53 mid) = $416 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $255) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $255.53) 90% EV / mo +$2,061 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,717 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $268 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $2.50–$4.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 375 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $258 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $255 is at/above CC-SS $244.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $255.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $244.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $5,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $255): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $255): +$386 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,511 (+$386 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,544, the opportunity cost of earning $4,160/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $252.50 | 10 Jul | 3d | 3.5% | 86% | 14% | $672 | $6,720 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $252.50 3.5% OTM over spot $244.06 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.86 mid) = $672 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $252.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $253.36) 88% EV / mo +$3,993 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,440 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $268 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.73/sh now → $2.64 mid-life (likely $2.74–$4.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 642 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $255 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $252.50 is at/above CC-SS $244.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $253.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $252)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $244.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $5,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $252.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $255): +$386 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,511 (+$386 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,544, the opportunity cost of earning $6,720/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $250 | 10 Jul | 3d | 2.4% | 76% | 24% | $1,340 | $13,400 | +$6,680 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $250 2.4% OTM over spot $244.06 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.35 mid) = $1,340 credit for the 3d cycle → $13,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $250) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $251.35) 80% EV / mo +$4,344 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,274 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $268 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.70/sh now → $2.61 mid-life (likely $2.94–$5.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 989 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $253 (overshoots $2.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $250 is at/above CC-SS $244.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.34 collected) or spot ≥ $251.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $250)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $244.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $5,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $250): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,125 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,930, the opportunity cost of earning $13,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Breach | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $262.50 | 17 Jul | 10d | 7.6% | 90% | 10% | $720 | $2,160 | -$4,698 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $262.50 7.6% OTM over spot $244.06 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.81 mid) = $720 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $262.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $263.31) 90% EV / mo +$1,015 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,323 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $266 @ 71% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.35/sh now → $4.49 mid-life (likely $3.96–$6.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 495 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $265 (overshoots $2.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $262.50 is at/above CC-SS $244.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $263.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $262)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $244.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $5,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $262.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $255): +$193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,318 (+$193 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,737, the opportunity cost of earning $2,160/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $257.50 | 17 Jul | 10d | 5.5% | 83% | 17% | $1,450 | $4,350 | -$2,508 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $257.50 5.5% OTM over spot $244.06 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.48 mid) = $1,450 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $257.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $258.98) 85% EV / mo +$1,631 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,957 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $263 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.23/sh now → $4.41 mid-life (likely $4.27–$6.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 851 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $260 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $257.50 is at/above CC-SS $244.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $258.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $244.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $5,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $257.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,125 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,930, the opportunity cost of earning $4,350/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $252.50 | 17 Jul | 10d | 3.5% | 73% | 27% | $2,286 | $6,858 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $252.50 3.5% OTM over spot $244.06 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.58 mid) = $2,286 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,858/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $252.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $255.07) 78% EV / mo +$1,927 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,603 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $263 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.11/sh now → $4.32 mid-life (likely $4.88–$6.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,329 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $255 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $252.50 is at/above CC-SS $244.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.54 collected) or spot ≥ $255.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $252)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $244.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $5,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $252.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $255): +$193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,318 (+$193 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,737, the opportunity cost of earning $6,858/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $247.50 | 17 Jul | 10d | 1.4% | 61% | 39% | $4,200 | $12,600 | +$5,742 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $247.50 1.4% OTM over spot $244.06 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.25 mid) = $4,200 credit for the 10d cycle → $12,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $247.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $251.75) 71% EV / mo +$2,430 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$36 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $268 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.99/sh now → $4.24 mid-life (likely $5.52–$7.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,996 simulated challenges: the $248 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $250 (overshoots $2.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $247.50 is at/above CC-SS $244.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.05/sh (~25% of the $4.20 collected) or spot ≥ $251.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $248)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $250.03 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $244.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $5,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $247.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,125 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,930, the opportunity cost of earning $12,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 37 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.873 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $7,055
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252.50 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 8/10 | $6,720 | $5,808 | 86% | 88% | +$3,993 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,183 (vs do-nothing $-872) |
| $252.50 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 10/10 | $6,300 | $4,230 | 78% | 81% | +$1,370 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,385 (vs do-nothing $-670) |
| $250 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 5/10 | $6,700 | $7,525 | 76% | 80% | +$2,172 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,760 (vs do-nothing $-295) |
| $252.50 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 10/10 | $6,525 | $4,455 | 75% | 80% | +$1,253 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,865 (vs do-nothing $-190) |
| $252.50 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.54 | 9/10 | $6,858 | $5,367 | 73% | 78% | +$1,927 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,604 (vs do-nothing +$549) |
| $250 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.81 | 7/10 | $6,335 | $6,002 | 71% | 76% | +$959 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,971 (vs do-nothing $-84) |
| $252.50 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 9/10 | $6,432 | $4,942 | 69% | 76% | +$1,636 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,963 (vs do-nothing +$1,908) |
| $250 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 7/10 | $6,694 | $6,361 | 69% | 75% | +$1,363 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,489 (vs do-nothing +$434) |
| $250 | 13d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 8/10 | $6,646 | $5,735 | 66% | 74% | +$1,418 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,391 (vs do-nothing +$1,336) |
| $247.50 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 4/10 | $8,200 | $9,604 | 66% | 74% | +$1,956 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,103 (vs do-nothing +$48) |
| $250 | 15d | 22 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 9/10 | $6,930 | $5,439 | 65% | 73% | +$965 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,783 (vs do-nothing +$1,728) |
| $250 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 8/10 | $6,918 | $6,006 | 64% | 73% | +$1,525 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,431 (vs do-nothing +$2,376) |
| $247.50 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.58 | 5/10 | $6,450 | $7,275 | 63% | 71% | +$710 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,380 (vs do-nothing +$325) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $247.50 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 5/10 | $6,562 | $7,388 | 62% | 72% | +$1,225 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,840 (vs do-nothing +$785) |
| $247.50 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 5/10 | $6,300 | $7,125 | 61% | 71% | +$1,215 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,190 (vs do-nothing +$1,135) |
| $247.50 | 13d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 7/10 | $7,027 | $6,694 | 60% | 71% | +$987 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,749 (vs do-nothing +$1,694) |
| $247.50 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 6/10 | $6,247 | $6,494 | 59% | 71% | +$1,195 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,437 (vs do-nothing +$2,382) |
| $245 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 3/10 | $9,150 | $11,133 | 55% | 68% | +$1,573 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,391 (vs do-nothing +$336) |
| $245 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/10 | $7,200 | $8,604 | 54% | 67% | +$603 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,723 (vs do-nothing +$668) |
| $245 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 4/10 | $6,750 | $8,154 | 54% | 68% | +$936 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,083 (vs do-nothing +$1,028) |
| $245 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 4/10 | $6,360 | $7,764 | 54% | 68% | +$1,002 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,403 (vs do-nothing +$1,348) |
| $245 | 13d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 5/10 | $6,173 | $6,999 | 54% | 68% | +$589 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,765 (vs do-nothing +$1,710) |
| $245 | 15d | 22 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 6/10 | $7,080 | $7,326 | 54% | 68% | +$741 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,437 (vs do-nothing +$2,382) |
| $245 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 5/10 | $6,176 | $7,002 | 54% | 68% | +$985 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,590 (vs do-nothing +$2,535) |
| $242.50 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 5/10 | $7,279 | $8,105 | 48% | 66% | +$962 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,435 (vs do-nothing +$2,380) |
| $242.50 | 13d | 20 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 4/10 | $6,185 | $7,589 | 47% | 65% | +$518 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,339 (vs do-nothing +$1,284) |
| $242.50 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 4/10 | $7,920 | $9,324 | 47% | 65% | +$1,019 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,299 (vs do-nothing +$1,244) |
| $242.50 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 3/10 | $6,412 | $8,396 | 46% | 64% | +$638 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,718 (vs do-nothing +$663) |
| $242.50 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/10 | $7,275 | $9,258 | 45% | 63% | +$431 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,463 (vs do-nothing +$408) |
| $242.50 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 2/10 | $8,600 | $11,162 | 44% | 63% | +$943 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,217 (vs do-nothing +$162) |
| $240 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.70 | 4/10 | $6,847 | $8,252 | 43% | 63% | +$777 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,539 (vs do-nothing +$1,484) |
| $240 | 15d | 22 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 4/10 | $6,920 | $8,324 | 42% | 63% | +$561 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,119 (vs do-nothing +$1,064) |
| $240 | 13d | 20 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 4/10 | $7,523 | $8,928 | 41% | 63% | +$479 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,919 (vs do-nothing +$864) |
| $240 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 3/10 | $7,245 | $9,228 | 40% | 62% | +$724 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,673 (vs do-nothing +$618) |
| $240 | 8d | 15 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 3/10 | $7,931 | $9,915 | 38% | 61% | +$486 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,373 (vs do-nothing +$318) |
| $240 | 6d | 13 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 2/10 | $6,300 | $8,862 | 36% | 60% | +$211 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,117 (vs do-nothing +$62) |
| $240 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 2/10 | $11,800 | $14,362 | 33% | 59% | +$878 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,037 (vs do-nothing $-18) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.