10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $236.23 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $67,500 | (ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,046/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,055/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $6,150 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 9 × $252.50 | 77% | $7,965 | $2,632 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $262.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 7.1% | 94% | 11% | $400 | $2,000 | -$5,965 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $262.50 7.1% OTM over spot $245.18 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.41 mid) = $400 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $262.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $262.90) 95% EV / mo +$1,399 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,045 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $282 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.87/sh now → $3.44 mid-life (likely $2.82–$4.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 187 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $265 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $262.50 is at/above CC-SS $236.23: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $262.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $262)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $251.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $236.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $262.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,150 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,090, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 9 × $255 | 17 Jul | 6d | 4.0% | 83% | 34% | $1,116 | $5,580 | -$2,385 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $255 4.0% OTM over spot $245.18 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.25 mid) = $1,116 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $255) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $256.25) 86% EV / mo +$2,819 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,896 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $280 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.73/sh now → $3.35 mid-life (likely $3.19–$5.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 751 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $257 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $255 is at/above CC-SS $236.23: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.24 collected) or spot ≥ $256.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $251.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $236.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $255): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $255): +$209 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,359 (+$209 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,881, the opportunity cost of earning $5,580/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $252.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.0% | 77% | 36% | $1,593 | $7,965 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $252.50 3.0% OTM over spot $245.18 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.79 mid) = $1,593 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,965/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $252.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $254.29) 81% EV / mo +$3,413 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,389 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $282 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.69/sh now → $3.31 mid-life (likely $3.46–$5.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,073 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $255 (overshoots $2.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $252.50 is at/above CC-SS $236.23: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.77 collected) or spot ≥ $254.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $252)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $251.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $236.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $252.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $255): +$209 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,359 (+$209 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,881, the opportunity cost of earning $7,965/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $247.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 0.9% | 60% | 82% | $3,060 | $15,300 | +$7,335 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $247.50 0.9% OTM over spot $245.18 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.42 mid) = $3,060 credit for the 6d cycle → $15,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $247.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $250.93) 72% EV / mo +$4,348 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$137 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $282 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $4.28–$6.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,905 simulated challenges: the $248 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $250 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $247.50 is at/above CC-SS $236.23: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $250.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $248)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $251.54 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $236.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $247.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $255): +$209 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,359 (+$209 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,881, the opportunity cost of earning $15,300/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.878 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $8,240
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252.50 | 4d | 15 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 10/10 | $7,875 | $7,875 | 83% | 86% | +$4,316 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,200 (vs do-nothing $-1,040) |
| $252.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.77 | 9/10 | $7,965 | $8,535 | 77% | 81% | +$3,413 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,952 (vs do-nothing $-288) |
| $250 | 4d | 15 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 7/10 | $8,610 | $10,320 | 74% | 80% | +$3,852 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,925 (vs do-nothing $-315) |
| $252.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 10/10 | $8,192 | $8,192 | 69% | 77% | +$2,556 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,700 (vs do-nothing +$1,460) |
| $250 | 9d | 20 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 8/10 | $7,627 | $8,767 | 67% | 76% | +$2,286 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,856 (vs do-nothing +$616) |
| $255 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 8/10 | $7,860 | $9,000 | 67% | 75% | +$2,100 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,808 (vs do-nothing +$3,568) |
| $250 | 11d | 22 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 8/10 | $7,527 | $8,667 | 65% | 74% | +$1,614 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,328 (vs do-nothing +$1,088) |
| $250 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 8/10 | $8,308 | $9,448 | 63% | 73% | +$2,343 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,168 (vs do-nothing +$1,928) |
| $247.50 | 4d | 15 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 5/10 | $9,188 | $12,038 | 62% | 74% | +$3,087 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,420 (vs do-nothing +$180) |
| $247.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 5/10 | $8,500 | $11,350 | 60% | 72% | +$2,416 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,895 (vs do-nothing +$655) |
| $250 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.55 | 6/10 | $7,695 | $9,975 | 59% | 71% | +$1,782 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,116 (vs do-nothing +$3,876) |
| $247.50 | 9d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 6/10 | $7,600 | $9,880 | 59% | 72% | +$1,820 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,266 (vs do-nothing +$1,026) |
| $247.50 | 11d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 7/10 | $8,495 | $10,205 | 58% | 70% | +$1,508 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,892 (vs do-nothing +$1,652) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $247.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 6/10 | $7,615 | $9,895 | 57% | 70% | +$1,802 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,286 (vs do-nothing +$2,046) |
| $245 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 5/10 | $8,062 | $10,912 | 52% | 68% | +$1,468 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,570 (vs do-nothing +$4,330) |
| $245 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 5/10 | $7,731 | $10,581 | 51% | 67% | +$1,549 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,545 (vs do-nothing +$2,305) |
| $245 | 11d | 22 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 5/10 | $7,841 | $10,691 | 51% | 67% | +$1,264 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,070 (vs do-nothing +$1,830) |
| $245 | 9d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 5/10 | $8,333 | $11,183 | 50% | 67% | +$1,604 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,695 (vs do-nothing +$1,455) |
| $245 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 4/10 | $9,100 | $12,520 | 50% | 67% | +$2,013 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,224 (vs do-nothing +$984) |
| $245 | 4d | 15 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 3/10 | $7,988 | $11,978 | 50% | 68% | +$1,878 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,678 (vs do-nothing +$438) |
| $242.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 5/10 | $9,288 | $12,138 | 44% | 65% | +$1,541 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,220 (vs do-nothing +$2,980) |
| $242.50 | 11d | 22 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 4/10 | $7,636 | $11,056 | 44% | 64% | +$869 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,204 (vs do-nothing +$1,964) |
| $242.50 | 9d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 5/10 | $9,250 | $12,100 | 42% | 62% | +$159 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,970 (vs do-nothing +$1,730) |
| $242.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 3/10 | $8,925 | $12,915 | 40% | 64% | +$1,495 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,398 (vs do-nothing +$1,158) |
| $242.50 | 4d | 15 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 3/10 | $11,138 | $15,128 | 37% | 63% | +$1,695 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,098 (vs do-nothing +$858) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.