FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $245.70

BE SS: $256.25  |  CC-SS: $235.11  |  10 contracts (1,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-11 14:09

AMZN @ $245.70   UNDERWATER $10.55 (4.1% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $256.25  |  CC-SS: $235.11  |  IV: MEDIUM  |  Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)
SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)
HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$67,500(ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000
Normal income ref$13,183/mo75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,059/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$7,490fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,591/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$13,183/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.8 mo to earn back $37,500
ML VELOCITY
5.1 mo to earn back $67,500
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $235.11 (probe: $242.5C 13d) still earns $11,077/mo (84% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$1,835
Hole (after banked)
$0
Cycles closed
6
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$245.70 → $235.11
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 74 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $287.13 (+17%) · daily UBB $251.61 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 9 contracts at $257.50 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 87%, breach 13%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($6,591/mo); it brings $7,054/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $252.50/6d for $14,060/mo, but breach risk rises to 25% (+12pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $262.50/6d (94% survival, $4,180/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $256, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 9 contracts realizes $6,667 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 9 × $257.50, 87% survival, $7,054/mo (E[net] $4,546/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 6d9 × $257.5087%$7,054$4,546

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $4,546/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 9 × $257.50 (primary), 87% survival, breach 13%, $7,054/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $262.50 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 94% (breach 13% → 6%) for $2,874/mo less (41% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
AMZN  spot $245.70 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
🛡 safe yield10 × $262.5017 Jul6d6.8%94%12%$836$4,180-$2,874$0
Sell 10 × $262.50 6.8% OTM over spot $245.70 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.88 mid)
= $836 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,180/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $262.50)
94%
Breach risk
6%
POP (stays ≤ $263.38)
95%
EV / mo
+$3,520
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,479
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$282 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.69/sh now → $3.32 mid-life (likely $2.79–$4.70)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.48/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 188 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $265 (overshoots $2.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$26220 Jul 20266d left+$1.52/sh+$1,520
cycle +$2,356
[+$1,783…+$2,140] · 100% credit
71%
surv 51%
+$24,966 SAFE
cap gain +$17,476
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$26420 Jul 20266d left+$0.56/sh+$559
cycle +$1,395
[+$730…+$982] · 100% credit
74%
surv 59%
+$25,625 SAFE
cap gain +$18,135
Max even-money escape in the band~$27731 Jul 202617d left+$1.07/sh+$1,067
cycle +$1,903
[+$282…+$1,396] · 82% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$37,383 SAFE
cap gain +$29,893
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$28231 Jul 202617d left-$0.07/sh-$70
cycle +$766
[-$986…+$257] · 37% credit
83%
surv 80%
+$40,746 SAFE
cap gain +$33,256
budget: banked $836 debit $70 (8% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$766 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,727/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,180/mo
vs 50% target ($6,591/mo)-37%
vs normal income ($13,183/mo)32% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,180/mo
Downside budget
✓ $262.50 is at/above CC-SS $235.11: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($37,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($67,500)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$7,446
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $263.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $262)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $251.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $259.88Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$260-263.38
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $263.38
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$262.50 (1.7σ)$836$23,446+$15,956+$4,576
+2.5%$269.06 (2.3σ)$-5,726$22,790+$15,300+$4,576
+5%$275.62 (3.0σ)$-12,289$22,134+$14,644+$4,576
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $235.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $7,490
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $262.50): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,490 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,260, the opportunity cost of earning $4,180/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal6 × $257.5017 Jul6d4.8%87%25%$940$4,702-$2,351$0
Sell 6 × $257.50 4.8% OTM over spot $245.70 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.65 mid)
= $940 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,702/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $257.50)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $259.15)
90%
EV / mo
+$3,547
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
18%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,011
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$282 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.60/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $3.01–$5.18)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.68/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 541 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $260 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (6 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$25820 Jul 20266d left+$1.63/sh+$980
cycle +$1,920
[+$1,086…+$1,319] · 100% credit
71%
surv 51%
+$20,534 SAFE
cap gain +$13,044
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$25920 Jul 20266d left+$0.68/sh+$405
cycle +$1,346
[+$411…+$616] · 100% credit
74%
surv 58%
+$20,860 SAFE
cap gain +$13,370
Max even-money escape in the band~$27231 Jul 202617d left+$1.13/sh+$680
cycle +$1,621
[+$39…+$778] · 77% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$27,385 SAFE
cap gain +$19,895
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$28231 Jul 202617d left-$0.93/sh-$555
cycle +$385
[-$1,409…-$478] · 5% credit
86%
surv 84%
+$31,149 SAFE
cap gain +$23,659
budget: banked $940 debit $555 (59% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$385 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,463/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,702/mo
vs 50% target ($6,591/mo)-29%
vs normal income ($13,183/mo)36% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,077/mo
Downside budget
✓ $257.50 is at/above CC-SS $235.11: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($37,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($67,500)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)$4,444
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.57 collected) or spot ≥ $259.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $251.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $254.93Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$255-259.15
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $259.15
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$257.50 (1.2σ)$940$19,555+$12,065+$184
+2.5%$263.94 (1.8σ)$-2,922$18,911+$11,421+$184
+5%$270.38 (2.5σ)$-6,784$18,267+$10,777+$184
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $235.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $7,490
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $257.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $257.50): +$504
Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,994 (+$504 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-756, the opportunity cost of earning $4,702/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal9 × $257.5017 Jul6d4.8%87%17%$1,411$7,054$0
Sell 9 × $257.50 4.8% OTM over spot $245.70 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.65 mid)
= $1,411 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,054/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $257.50)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $259.15)
90%
EV / mo
+$5,320
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
17%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,516
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$282 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.60/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $2.95–$4.96)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.68/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 514 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $260 (overshoots $2.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (9 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$25820 Jul 20266d left+$1.63/sh+$1,470
cycle +$2,881
[+$1,657…+$1,984] · 100% credit
71%
surv 51%
+$21,117 SAFE
cap gain +$13,627
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$25920 Jul 20266d left+$0.68/sh+$608
cycle +$2,018
[+$626…+$927] · 100% credit
74%
surv 58%
+$21,694 SAFE
cap gain +$14,204
Max even-money escape in the band~$27231 Jul 202617d left+$1.13/sh+$1,021
cycle +$2,431
[+$156…+$1,190] · 78% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$32,107 SAFE
cap gain +$24,617
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$28231 Jul 202617d left-$0.93/sh-$833
cycle +$578
[-$2,019…-$685] · 6% credit
86%
surv 84%
+$38,254 SAFE
cap gain +$30,764
budget: banked $1,411 debit $833 (59% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$578 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,695/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,054/mo
vs 50% target ($6,591/mo)+7%
vs normal income ($13,183/mo)54% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,397/mo
Downside budget
✓ $257.50 is at/above CC-SS $235.11: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($37,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($67,500)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)$6,667
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.57 collected) or spot ≥ $259.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $251.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $254.93Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$255-259.15
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $259.15
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$257.50 (1.2σ)$1,411$19,647+$12,157+$277
+2.5%$263.94 (1.8σ)$-4,383$19,003+$11,513+$277
+5%$270.38 (2.5σ)$-10,177$18,359+$10,869+$277
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $235.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $7,490
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $257.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $257.50): +$126
Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,616 (+$126 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,134, the opportunity cost of earning $7,054/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal10 × $252.5017 Jul6d2.8%75%50%$2,812$14,060+$7,006$0
Sell 10 × $252.50 2.8% OTM over spot $245.70 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.96 mid)
= $2,812 credit for the 6d cycle → $14,060/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $252.50)
75%
Breach risk
25%
POP (stays ≤ $255.46)
84%
EV / mo
+$8,748
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
37%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$377
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$287 @ 92% POP
91% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.51/sh now → $3.19 mid-life (likely $3.49–$5.57)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,106 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $255 (overshoots $2.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$25220 Jul 20266d left+$1.74/sh+$1,741
cycle +$4,553
[+$1,804…+$2,215] · 100% credit
71%
surv 51%
+$18,163 SAFE
cap gain +$10,673
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$25420 Jul 20266d left+$0.79/sh+$786
cycle +$3,598
[+$739…+$934] · 100% credit
74%
surv 58%
+$18,828 SAFE
cap gain +$11,338
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$26731 Jul 202617d left+$1.19/sh+$1,195
cycle +$4,007
[-$80…+$1,034] · 73% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$30,487 SAFE
cap gain +$22,997
Max even-money escape in the band~$27231 Jul 202617d left+$0.06/sh+$59
cycle +$2,871
[-$1,436…-$155] · 21% credit
83%
surv 80%
+$33,851 SAFE
cap gain +$26,361
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$28731 Jul 202617d left-$1.99/sh-$1,988
cycle +$824
[-$3,953…-$2,288]
92%
surv 91%
+$45,304 SAFE
cap gain +$37,814
budget: banked $2,812 debit $1,988 (71% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$824 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,119/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$14,060/mo
vs 50% target ($6,591/mo)+113%
vs normal income ($13,183/mo)107% covered
Net income (after hedge)$14,060/mo
Downside budget
✓ $252.50 is at/above CC-SS $235.11: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($37,500)0.0%
… as % of ML ($67,500)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$7,342
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.70/sh (~25% of the $2.81 collected) or spot ≥ $255.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $252)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $251.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $249.97Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$250-255.46
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $255.46
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$252.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,812$16,422+$8,932+$1,552
+2.5%$258.81 (1.3σ)$-3,500$15,791+$8,301-$3,448
+5%$265.12 (1.9σ)$-9,813$15,160+$7,670-$3,448
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $235.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $7,490
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $252.50): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,490 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $8,750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,260, the opportunity cost of earning $14,060/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on AMZN are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (31 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback)  |  Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $8,750

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$257.504d15 Jul 2026$0.999/10$6,669$7,01392%94%+$5,735-$00.0%$8,505 (vs do-nothing $-245)
$2554d15 Jul 2026$1.387/10$7,232$8,26388%91%+$5,769-$00.0%$8,832 (vs do-nothing +$82)
$257.506d17 Jul 2026$1.579/10$7,054$7,39787%90%+$5,320-$00.0%$9,027 (vs do-nothing +$277)
$252.504d15 Jul 2026$2.045/10$7,659$9,37881%87%+$5,604-$00.0%$9,141 (vs do-nothing +$391)
$252.506d17 Jul 2026$2.815/10$7,030$8,74875%84%+$4,374-$00.0%$9,526 (vs do-nothing +$776)
$252.509d20 Jul 2026$3.167/10$7,382$8,41273%82%+$4,110-$00.0%$10,082 (vs do-nothing +$1,332)
$26020d31 Jul 2026$5.109/10$6,885$7,22972%78%+$2,046-$00.0%$12,206 (vs do-nothing +$3,456)
$2504d15 Jul 2026$2.934/10$8,778$10,84071%83%+$5,691-$00.0%$9,416 (vs do-nothing +$666)
$252.5011d22 Jul 2026$2.5610/10$6,982$6,98270%77%+$1,458-$00.0%$10,050 (vs do-nothing +$1,300)
$252.5013d24 Jul 2026$3.509/10$7,269$7,61368%76%+$1,892-$00.0%$10,766 (vs do-nothing +$2,016)
$25520d31 Jul 2026$6.657/10$6,983$8,01366%75%+$1,747-$00.0%$12,523 (vs do-nothing +$3,773)
$2509d20 Jul 2026$4.165/10$6,935$8,65366%78%+$3,430-$00.0%$10,200 (vs do-nothing +$1,450)
$25011d22 Jul 2026$3.358/10$7,309$7,99663%73%+$1,180-$00.0%$10,422 (vs do-nothing +$1,672)
Show 18 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$25013d24 Jul 2026$4.237/10$6,829$7,86063%73%+$1,697-$00.0%$10,827 (vs do-nothing +$2,077)
$247.504d15 Jul 2026$3.923/10$8,828$11,23360%78%+$4,745-$00.0%$9,549 (vs do-nothing +$799)
$25020d31 Jul 2026$8.406/10$7,560$8,93559%71%+$1,444-$00.0%$13,034 (vs do-nothing +$4,284)
$247.506d17 Jul 2026$4.873/10$7,310$9,71658%76%+$3,456-$00.0%$9,834 (vs do-nothing +$1,084)
$247.509d20 Jul 2026$5.184/10$6,903$8,96557%74%+$2,837-$00.0%$10,317 (vs do-nothing +$1,567)
$247.5011d22 Jul 2026$4.156/10$6,791$8,16556%69%+$572-$00.0%$10,484 (vs do-nothing +$1,734)
$247.5013d24 Jul 2026$5.406/10$7,477$8,85156%69%+$1,372-$00.0%$11,234 (vs do-nothing +$2,484)
$24520d31 Jul 2026$10.805/10$8,100$9,81851%67%+$1,306-$00.0%$13,520 (vs do-nothing +$4,770)
$24513d24 Jul 2026$6.415/10$7,399$9,11749%67%+$1,232-$00.0%$11,326 (vs do-nothing +$2,576)
$24511d22 Jul 2026$5.755/10$7,841$9,55949%66%+$1,008-$00.0%$10,995 (vs do-nothing +$2,245)
$2459d20 Jul 2026$6.464/10$8,613$10,67549%71%+$2,928-$00.0%$10,830 (vs do-nothing +$2,080)
$2456d17 Jul 2026$4.324/10$8,645$10,70748%66%+$1,146-$00.0%$9,975 (vs do-nothing +$1,225)
$2454d15 Jul 2026$5.232/10$7,852$10,60147%74%+$3,388-$00.0%$9,545 (vs do-nothing +$795)
$242.5013d24 Jul 2026$8.004/10$7,385$9,44643%64%+$927-$00.0%$11,446 (vs do-nothing +$2,696)
$242.5011d22 Jul 2026$6.704/10$7,309$9,37142%62%+$280-$00.0%$10,926 (vs do-nothing +$2,176)
$242.509d20 Jul 2026$7.983/10$7,980$10,38540%68%+$2,235-$00.0%$10,766 (vs do-nothing +$2,016)
$242.506d17 Jul 2026$7.582/10$7,581$10,33038%69%+$2,350-$00.0%$10,014 (vs do-nothing +$1,264)
$242.504d15 Jul 2026$6.562/10$9,847$12,59635%69%+$3,055-$00.0%$9,811 (vs do-nothing +$1,061)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-11 14:09