FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $244.54

BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $235.28 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $244.54 UNDERWATER $11.71 (4.6% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $235.28 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)

SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)

HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$67,500	(ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000
Normal income ref	$18,000/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,071/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$6,350	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,000/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$18,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $37,500

ML VELOCITY
3.8 mo to earn back $67,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $235.28 (probe: $240C 11d) still earns $13,118/mo (73% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,835

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$244.54 → $235.28

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $235.28 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $250 20 Jul 2026 (7d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $250)

71%

Touch odds

58%

Per cycle

$2,650

Income / mo

$11,357

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.95/sh now → $4.21 mid-life (likely $4.80–$7.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,375 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $252 (overshoots $2.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$260	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$1.35/sh	+$1,352 cycle +$4,002 [-$116…+$1,031] · 72% credit	78% surv 70%
reaches SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$250	22 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.40/sh	+$397 cycle +$3,047 [-$278…+$280] · 50% credit	68% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$250	22 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.20/sh	+$200 cycle +$2,850 [-$506…+$65] · 30% credit	69% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$275	31 Jul 2026	14d left	-$2.11/sh	-$2,114 cycle +$536 [-$4,268…-$2,616]	89% surv 88%
budget: banked $2,650 debit $2,114 (80% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$536 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,486/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $252.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $252.50)

84%

Touch odds

33%

Per cycle

$1,640

Income / mo

$12,300

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.10/sh now → $3.61 mid-life (likely $3.73–$6.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 665 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $255 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$263	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$2.44/sh	+$2,444 cycle +$4,084 [+$777…+$2,437] · 84% credit	77% surv 69%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$252	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.59/sh	+$586 cycle +$2,226 [-$119…+$877] · 71% credit	69% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$268	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.93/sh	+$931 cycle +$2,571 [-$981…+$867] · 55% credit	81% surv 76%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$253	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.36/sh	+$355 cycle +$1,995 [-$409…+$599] · 54% credit	70% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$278	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.17/sh	-$1,166 cycle +$474 [-$3,477…-$1,291] · 2% credit	88% surv 86%
budget: banked $1,640 debit $1,166 (71% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$474 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,574/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $257.50 20 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $257.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$800

Income / mo

$3,429

Buyback gross: $6.13/sh now → $4.33 mid-life (likely $3.67–$6.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 451 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $260 (overshoots $2.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$268	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$1.23/sh	+$1,232 cycle +$2,032 [-$21…+$1,562] · 75% credit	78% surv 70%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$258	22 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.22/sh	+$223 cycle +$1,023 [-$247…+$591] · 58% credit	68% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$258	22 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.03/sh	+$25 cycle +$825 [-$470…+$349] · 41% credit	69% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$273	31 Jul 2026	14d left	-$0.25/sh	-$246 cycle +$554 [-$1,705…+$32] · 26% credit	82% surv 77%
budget: banked $800 debit $246 (31% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$554 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $8,759/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (25 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $9,080

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$252.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.64	8/10	$9,840	$11,329	84%	88%	+$7,116	-$0	0.0%	$8,208 (vs do-nothing $-872)
$252.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	10/10	$9,545	$9,545	72%	80%	+$4,382	-$0	0.0%	$9,850 (vs do-nothing +$770)
$250	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.65	8/10	$9,086	$10,575	71%	80%	+$4,436	-$0	0.0%	$9,016 (vs do-nothing $-64)
$255	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	9/10	$9,975	$10,720	68%	77%	+$3,700	-$0	0.0%	$12,608 (vs do-nothing +$3,528)
$250	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.35	9/10	$10,050	$10,795	68%	78%	+$4,002	-$0	0.0%	$9,638 (vs do-nothing +$558)
$250	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.40	8/10	$9,600	$11,089	66%	76%	+$3,929	-$0	0.0%	$10,416 (vs do-nothing +$1,336)
$247.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.30	4/10	$9,900	$14,367	65%	78%	+$5,301	-$0	0.0%	$9,308 (vs do-nothing +$228)
$247.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.60	6/10	$9,257	$12,235	62%	76%	+$3,757	-$0	0.0%	$9,602 (vs do-nothing +$522)
$250	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	7/10	$9,800	$12,034	61%	73%	+$2,960	-$0	0.0%	$13,049 (vs do-nothing +$3,969)
$247.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.15	7/10	$9,683	$11,917	60%	74%	+$2,971	-$0	0.0%	$10,074 (vs do-nothing +$994)
$247.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	7/10	$10,309	$12,543	59%	73%	+$3,644	-$0	0.0%	$10,949 (vs do-nothing +$1,869)
$245	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/10	$10,012	$15,224	53%	73%	+$4,307	-$0	0.0%	$9,596 (vs do-nothing +$516)
$245	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.80	5/10	$9,000	$12,723	53%	69%	+$2,325	-$0	0.0%	$13,115 (vs do-nothing +$4,035)

Show 12 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$245	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.80	5/10	$10,286	$14,008	53%	72%	+$3,408	-$0	0.0%	$10,115 (vs do-nothing +$1,035)
$245	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.75	5/10	$9,583	$13,306	52%	71%	+$2,962	-$0	0.0%	$10,590 (vs do-nothing +$1,510)
$245	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.60	5/10	$9,000	$12,723	52%	70%	+$2,744	-$0	0.0%	$11,015 (vs do-nothing +$1,935)
$242.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.00	5/10	$10,909	$14,632	45%	68%	+$2,866	-$0	0.0%	$11,715 (vs do-nothing +$2,635)
$240	18d	31 Jul 2026	$13.40	5/10	$11,167	$14,889	45%	66%	+$2,289	-$0	0.0%	$14,415 (vs do-nothing +$5,335)
$242.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.70	5/10	$11,167	$14,889	44%	67%	+$2,313	-$0	0.0%	$11,065 (vs do-nothing +$1,985)
$242.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/10	$10,286	$14,753	43%	67%	+$2,431	-$0	0.0%	$10,388 (vs do-nothing +$1,308)
$242.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.90	3/10	$13,275	$18,487	41%	69%	+$4,493	-$0	0.0%	$10,031 (vs do-nothing +$951)
$240	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	4/10	$10,200	$14,667	39%	65%	+$2,104	-$0	0.0%	$11,728 (vs do-nothing +$2,648)
$240	9d	22 Jul 2026	$8.30	4/10	$11,067	$15,534	37%	64%	+$1,882	-$0	0.0%	$11,308 (vs do-nothing +$2,228)
$240	7d	20 Jul 2026	$7.65	3/10	$9,836	$15,048	34%	64%	+$1,813	-$0	0.0%	$10,556 (vs do-nothing +$1,476)
$240	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.50	2/10	$11,250	$17,206	30%	65%	+$2,828	-$0	0.0%	$10,034 (vs do-nothing +$954)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:27