FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $243.84

BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $234.61 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $243.84 UNDERWATER $12.41 (4.8% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $234.61 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)

SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)

HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$67,500	(ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000
Normal income ref	$18,000/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,071/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$6,350	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,000/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$18,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $37,500

ML VELOCITY
3.8 mo to earn back $67,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $234.61 (probe: $240C 11d) still earns $15,027/mo (83% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,835

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$243.84 → $234.61

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $234.61 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $250 22 Jul 2026 (9d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $250)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$3,350

Income / mo

$11,167

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.21/sh now → $5.10 mid-life (likely $5.89–$8.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,508 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $252 (overshoots $2.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$256	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$1.81/sh	+$1,805 cycle +$5,155 [+$511…+$1,503] · 86% credit	74% surv 63%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$250	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.44/sh	+$444 cycle +$3,794 [-$123…+$363] · 61% credit	71% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$261	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.09/sh	+$86 cycle +$3,436 [-$1,480…-$306] · 16% credit	78% surv 71%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$276	31 Jul 2026	14d left	-$3.25/sh	-$3,254 cycle +$96 [-$5,646…-$3,863]	90% surv 88%
budget: banked $3,350 debit $3,254 (97% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$96 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,950/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $252.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $252.50)

86%

Touch odds

29%

Per cycle

$1,640

Income / mo

$12,300

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.72/sh now → $4.04 mid-life (likely $4.10–$7.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 564 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $255 (overshoots $2.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$264	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.99/sh	+$1,989 cycle +$3,629 [-$63…+$2,002] · 74% credit	78% surv 70%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$252	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.42/sh	+$423 cycle +$2,063 [-$474…+$754] · 58% credit	71% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$269	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.48/sh	+$478 cycle +$2,118 [-$1,835…+$460] · 39% credit	82% surv 77%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$279	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.61/sh	-$1,614 cycle +$26 [-$4,366…-$1,704]	89% surv 87%
budget: banked $1,640 debit $1,614 (98% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$26 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,553/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $262.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $262.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,310

Income / mo

$3,573

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.29/sh now → $5.86 mid-life (likely $4.89–$8.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 442 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $265 (overshoots $2.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$262	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$3.39/sh	+$3,394 cycle +$4,704 [+$3,680…+$4,562] · 100% credit	75% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$269	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.68/sh	+$676 cycle +$1,986 [-$403…+$985] · 62% credit	75% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$269	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.68/sh	+$676 cycle +$1,986 [-$403…+$985] · 62% credit	75% surv 64%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$274	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.03/sh	-$1,033 cycle +$277 [-$2,481…-$766] · 12% credit	79% surv 72%
budget: banked $1,310 debit $1,033 (79% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$277 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $12,067/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (25 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.876 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $9,080

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$252.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.64	8/10	$9,840	$11,329	86%	90%	+$7,626	-$0	0.0%	$8,208 (vs do-nothing $-872)
$250	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.65	8/10	$9,086	$10,575	74%	82%	+$5,046	-$0	0.0%	$9,016 (vs do-nothing $-64)
$252.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	10/10	$9,545	$9,545	74%	81%	+$4,871	-$0	0.0%	$9,850 (vs do-nothing +$770)
$250	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.35	9/10	$10,050	$10,795	70%	79%	+$4,626	-$0	0.0%	$9,638 (vs do-nothing +$558)
$255	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	9/10	$9,975	$10,720	69%	78%	+$4,035	-$0	0.0%	$12,608 (vs do-nothing +$3,528)
$247.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.30	4/10	$9,900	$14,367	68%	81%	+$5,976	-$0	0.0%	$9,308 (vs do-nothing +$228)
$250	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.40	8/10	$9,600	$11,089	68%	78%	+$4,426	-$0	0.0%	$10,416 (vs do-nothing +$1,336)
$247.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.60	6/10	$9,257	$12,235	65%	78%	+$4,398	-$0	0.0%	$9,602 (vs do-nothing +$522)
$247.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.15	7/10	$9,683	$11,917	63%	75%	+$3,599	-$0	0.0%	$10,074 (vs do-nothing +$994)
$250	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	7/10	$9,800	$12,034	62%	74%	+$3,292	-$0	0.0%	$13,049 (vs do-nothing +$3,969)
$247.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	7/10	$10,309	$12,543	61%	75%	+$4,181	-$0	0.0%	$10,949 (vs do-nothing +$1,869)
$245	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/10	$10,012	$15,224	56%	76%	+$5,029	-$0	0.0%	$9,596 (vs do-nothing +$516)
$245	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.80	5/10	$10,286	$14,008	55%	74%	+$4,112	-$0	0.0%	$10,115 (vs do-nothing +$1,035)

Show 12 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$245	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.75	5/10	$9,583	$13,306	55%	72%	+$3,520	-$0	0.0%	$10,590 (vs do-nothing +$1,510)
$245	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.60	5/10	$9,000	$12,723	54%	72%	+$3,205	-$0	0.0%	$11,015 (vs do-nothing +$1,935)
$245	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.80	5/10	$9,000	$12,723	54%	76%	+$4,553	-$0	0.0%	$13,115 (vs do-nothing +$4,035)
$242.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.00	5/10	$10,909	$14,632	47%	69%	+$3,406	-$0	0.0%	$11,715 (vs do-nothing +$2,635)
$242.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.70	5/10	$11,167	$14,889	47%	69%	+$2,980	-$0	0.0%	$11,065 (vs do-nothing +$1,985)
$240	18d	31 Jul 2026	$13.40	5/10	$11,167	$14,889	46%	67%	+$2,637	-$0	0.0%	$14,415 (vs do-nothing +$5,335)
$242.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/10	$10,286	$14,753	46%	69%	+$3,132	-$0	0.0%	$10,388 (vs do-nothing +$1,308)
$242.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.90	3/10	$13,275	$18,487	44%	72%	+$5,441	-$0	0.0%	$10,031 (vs do-nothing +$951)
$240	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	4/10	$10,200	$14,667	40%	67%	+$2,597	-$0	0.0%	$11,728 (vs do-nothing +$2,648)
$240	9d	22 Jul 2026	$8.30	4/10	$11,067	$15,534	39%	66%	+$2,499	-$0	0.0%	$11,308 (vs do-nothing +$2,228)
$240	7d	20 Jul 2026	$7.65	3/10	$9,836	$15,048	36%	67%	+$2,434	-$0	0.0%	$10,556 (vs do-nothing +$1,476)
$240	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.50	2/10	$11,250	$17,206	33%	68%	+$3,596	-$0	0.0%	$10,034 (vs do-nothing +$954)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:35