FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $245.90

BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $236.67 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $245.90 UNDERWATER $10.35 (4.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

AMZN reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 18 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $236.67 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)

SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)

HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$67,500	(ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000
Normal income ref	$15,599/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,071/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$6,350	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,799/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$15,599/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $37,500

ML VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $67,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $236.67 (probe: $245C 14d) still earns $15,599/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,835

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$245.90 → $236.67

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 74 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $287.13 (+17%) · daily UBB $251.64 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $236.67 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $252.50 22 Jul 2026 (9d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $252.50)

71%

Touch odds

59%

Per cycle

$2,560

Income / mo

$8,533

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$252	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.55/sh	+$555 cycle +$3,115 [+$198…+$497] · 91% credit	68% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$262	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$1.15/sh	+$1,150 cycle +$3,710 [+$161…+$877] · 80% credit	76% surv 68%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$274	31 Jul 2026	14d left	-$2.38/sh	-$2,382 cycle +$178 [-$3,727…-$2,794]	93% surv 92%
budget: banked $2,560 debit $2,382 (93% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$178 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,805/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $255 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $255)

86%

Touch odds

27%

Per cycle

$1,120

Income / mo

$8,400

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.18/sh now → $2.95 mid-life (likely $2.91–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 482 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $257 (overshoots $2.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$255	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.69/sh	+$685 cycle +$1,805 [+$270…+$1,010] · 87% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$269	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.61/sh	+$1,615 cycle +$2,735 [+$354…+$1,701] · 79% credit	80% surv 74%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$274	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.46/sh	+$457 cycle +$1,577 [-$999…+$485] · 45% credit	84% surv 80%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$277	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.53/sh	-$527 cycle +$593 [-$1,819…-$475] · 8% credit	93% surv 90%
budget: banked $1,120 debit $527 (47% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$593 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,550/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $265 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $265)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,000

Income / mo

$2,727

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$265	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.00/sh	+$1,001 cycle +$2,001 [+$1,090…+$1,678] · 100% credit	70% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$272	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.14/sh	+$139 cycle +$1,139 [-$69…+$500] · 65% credit	80% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$274	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.07/sh	+$71 cycle +$1,071 [-$736…+$246] · 37% credit	77% surv 69%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (31 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $8,540

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$255	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.12	10/10	$8,400	$8,400	86%	89%	+$5,809	-$0	0.0%	$7,470 (vs do-nothing $-1,070)
$252.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.64	7/10	$8,610	$10,402	79%	84%	+$5,123	-$0	0.0%	$8,155 (vs do-nothing $-385)
$257.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.48	9/10	$8,222	$8,820	75%	84%	+$5,302	-$0	0.0%	$11,502 (vs do-nothing +$2,962)
$252.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.05	9/10	$7,907	$8,504	75%	81%	+$3,673	-$0	0.0%	$8,414 (vs do-nothing $-126)
$255	14d	27 Jul 2026	$4.36	9/10	$8,410	$9,007	73%	81%	+$4,625	-$0	0.0%	$10,493 (vs do-nothing +$1,953)
$260	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.10	10/10	$8,500	$8,500	73%	79%	+$3,057	-$0	0.0%	$11,450 (vs do-nothing +$2,910)
$252.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$2.56	10/10	$8,533	$8,533	71%	79%	+$2,831	-$0	0.0%	$8,910 (vs do-nothing +$370)
$252.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	9/10	$8,591	$9,188	69%	77%	+$2,995	-$0	0.0%	$9,719 (vs do-nothing +$1,179)
$250	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.65	7/10	$7,950	$9,742	67%	76%	+$2,679	-$0	0.0%	$8,862 (vs do-nothing +$322)
$255	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	8/10	$8,867	$10,061	66%	75%	+$2,679	-$0	0.0%	$12,108 (vs do-nothing +$3,568)
$252.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.11	7/10	$8,290	$10,082	66%	79%	+$4,475	-$0	0.0%	$11,981 (vs do-nothing +$3,441)
$250	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.35	7/10	$7,817	$9,608	64%	74%	+$2,057	-$0	0.0%	$9,352 (vs do-nothing +$812)
$250	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.40	7/10	$8,400	$10,192	62%	73%	+$2,513	-$0	0.0%	$10,087 (vs do-nothing +$1,547)

Show 18 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$250	14d	27 Jul 2026	$6.03	7/10	$9,049	$10,841	62%	76%	+$3,846	-$0	0.0%	$11,230 (vs do-nothing +$2,690)
$250	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	6/10	$8,400	$10,789	59%	71%	+$1,958	-$0	0.0%	$12,266 (vs do-nothing +$3,726)
$247.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.30	4/10	$9,900	$13,484	58%	73%	+$3,764	-$0	0.0%	$8,984 (vs do-nothing +$444)
$247.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.60	6/10	$9,257	$11,646	57%	72%	+$2,351	-$0	0.0%	$9,386 (vs do-nothing +$846)
$247.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.15	6/10	$8,300	$10,689	56%	70%	+$1,397	-$0	0.0%	$9,716 (vs do-nothing +$1,176)
$247.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	6/10	$8,836	$11,225	56%	70%	+$2,155	-$0	0.0%	$10,466 (vs do-nothing +$1,926)
$247.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.09	6/10	$9,092	$11,481	55%	75%	+$3,916	-$0	0.0%	$12,681 (vs do-nothing +$4,141)
$245	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.80	5/10	$9,000	$11,986	51%	67%	+$1,735	-$0	0.0%	$12,845 (vs do-nothing +$4,305)
$245	14d	27 Jul 2026	$8.18	5/10	$8,764	$11,750	49%	70%	+$2,682	-$0	0.0%	$11,535 (vs do-nothing +$2,995)
$245	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.60	5/10	$9,000	$11,986	49%	67%	+$1,785	-$0	0.0%	$10,745 (vs do-nothing +$2,205)
$245	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.75	5/10	$9,583	$12,570	48%	67%	+$1,791	-$0	0.0%	$10,320 (vs do-nothing +$1,780)
$245	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.80	4/10	$8,229	$11,812	47%	67%	+$1,521	-$0	0.0%	$9,584 (vs do-nothing +$1,044)
$245	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/10	$10,012	$14,193	46%	68%	+$2,721	-$0	0.0%	$9,218 (vs do-nothing +$678)
$242.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.45	5/10	$9,540	$12,526	44%	70%	+$3,092	-$0	0.0%	$13,169 (vs do-nothing +$4,629)
$242.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.00	4/10	$8,727	$12,311	42%	64%	+$1,404	-$0	0.0%	$10,864 (vs do-nothing +$2,324)
$242.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.70	4/10	$8,933	$12,517	40%	63%	+$745	-$0	0.0%	$10,344 (vs do-nothing +$1,804)
$242.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/10	$10,286	$13,869	38%	62%	+$964	-$0	0.0%	$10,064 (vs do-nothing +$1,524)
$242.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.90	2/10	$8,850	$13,628	34%	63%	+$1,654	-$0	0.0%	$9,282 (vs do-nothing +$742)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 16:21