FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $244.90

BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $237.86 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $244.90 UNDERWATER $11.35 (4.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

AMZN reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 18 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $237.86 (banked floor $235.65) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)

SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)

HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$67,500	(ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000
Normal income ref	$17,527/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,071/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$6,350	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,764/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$17,527/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $37,500

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $67,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $237.86 (probe: $245C 14d) still earns $17,527/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,835

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$237.86 → $235.65

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 56 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 70 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $287.13 (+17%) · daily UBB $251.50 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $237.86 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $250 20 Jul 2026 (7d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $250)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$2,650

Income / mo

$11,357

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.68/sh now → $4.02 mid-life (likely $4.70–$6.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,444 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $252 (overshoots $2.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$260	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$1.56/sh	+$1,557 cycle +$4,207 [+$199…+$1,227] · 80% credit	77% surv 69%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$250	22 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.48/sh	+$481 cycle +$3,131 [-$136…+$367] · 65% credit	68% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$250	22 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.44/sh	+$438 cycle +$3,088 [-$186…+$320] · 60% credit	68% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$265	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.08/sh	+$79 cycle +$2,729 [-$1,537…-$313] · 15% credit	82% surv 77%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$268	31 Jul 2026	14d left	-$1.06/sh	-$1,061 cycle +$1,589 [-$2,424…-$1,403] · 1% credit	91% surv 87%
budget: banked $2,650 debit $1,061 (40% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,589 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,339/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $252.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $252.50)

82%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$1,640

Income / mo

$12,300

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.82/sh now → $3.41 mid-life (likely $3.53–$6.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 716 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $255 (overshoots $2.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$252	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.64/sh	+$644 cycle +$2,284 [-$12…+$907] · 74% credit	69% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$253	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.59/sh	+$594 cycle +$2,234 [-$75…+$849] · 73% credit	69% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$268	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.14/sh	+$1,139 cycle +$2,779 [-$686…+$1,089] · 61% credit	81% surv 75%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$270	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.00/sh	+$2 cycle +$1,642 [-$1,559…-$21] · 24% credit	90% surv 86%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$275	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.99/sh	-$989 cycle +$651 [-$2,846…-$1,054] · 1% credit	93% surv 91%
budget: banked $1,640 debit $989 (60% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$651 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,530/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $267.50 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $267.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$3,125

Income / mo

$5,209

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (28 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $8,540

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$252.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.64	8/10	$9,840	$11,035	82%	87%	+$6,818	-$0	0.0%	$8,100 (vs do-nothing $-440)
$252.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.05	10/10	$8,786	$8,786	78%	84%	+$4,980	-$0	0.0%	$8,400 (vs do-nothing $-140)
$257.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.48	10/10	$9,136	$9,136	77%	85%	+$6,261	-$0	0.0%	$11,832 (vs do-nothing +$3,292)
$255	14d	27 Jul 2026	$4.36	10/10	$9,344	$9,344	75%	83%	+$5,662	-$0	0.0%	$10,711 (vs do-nothing +$2,170)
$252.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	10/10	$9,545	$9,545	71%	79%	+$4,117	-$0	0.0%	$9,850 (vs do-nothing +$1,310)
$250	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.65	8/10	$9,086	$10,280	70%	79%	+$4,097	-$0	0.0%	$8,908 (vs do-nothing +$368)
$252.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.11	8/10	$9,475	$10,669	68%	81%	+$5,554	-$0	0.0%	$12,473 (vs do-nothing +$3,933)
$255	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	8/10	$8,867	$10,061	68%	77%	+$3,132	-$0	0.0%	$12,108 (vs do-nothing +$3,568)
$250	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.35	8/10	$8,933	$10,128	67%	77%	+$3,254	-$0	0.0%	$9,468 (vs do-nothing +$928)
$250	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.40	8/10	$9,600	$10,795	65%	76%	+$3,662	-$0	0.0%	$10,308 (vs do-nothing +$1,768)
$250	14d	27 Jul 2026	$6.03	7/10	$9,049	$10,841	64%	78%	+$4,406	-$0	0.0%	$11,230 (vs do-nothing +$2,690)
$247.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.30	4/10	$9,900	$13,484	63%	77%	+$4,924	-$0	0.0%	$8,984 (vs do-nothing +$444)
$247.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.60	6/10	$9,257	$11,646	61%	75%	+$3,405	-$0	0.0%	$9,386 (vs do-nothing +$846)

Show 15 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$250	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	7/10	$9,800	$11,592	60%	73%	+$2,785	-$0	0.0%	$12,887 (vs do-nothing +$4,347)
$247.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.15	7/10	$9,683	$11,475	59%	73%	+$2,632	-$0	0.0%	$9,912 (vs do-nothing +$1,372)
$247.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	6/10	$8,836	$11,225	58%	72%	+$2,877	-$0	0.0%	$10,466 (vs do-nothing +$1,926)
$247.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.09	6/10	$9,092	$11,481	57%	76%	+$4,371	-$0	0.0%	$12,681 (vs do-nothing +$4,141)
$245	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.80	5/10	$9,000	$11,986	52%	69%	+$2,172	-$0	0.0%	$12,845 (vs do-nothing +$4,305)
$245	14d	27 Jul 2026	$8.18	5/10	$8,764	$11,750	52%	72%	+$3,242	-$0	0.0%	$11,535 (vs do-nothing +$2,995)
$245	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.60	5/10	$9,000	$11,986	51%	69%	+$2,498	-$0	0.0%	$10,745 (vs do-nothing +$2,205)
$245	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.75	5/10	$9,583	$12,570	51%	70%	+$2,663	-$0	0.0%	$10,320 (vs do-nothing +$1,780)
$245	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.80	5/10	$10,286	$13,272	51%	70%	+$3,027	-$0	0.0%	$9,845 (vs do-nothing +$1,305)
$245	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/10	$10,012	$14,193	51%	72%	+$3,910	-$0	0.0%	$9,218 (vs do-nothing +$678)
$242.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.45	5/10	$9,540	$12,526	46%	72%	+$3,584	-$0	0.0%	$13,169 (vs do-nothing +$4,629)
$242.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.00	5/10	$10,909	$13,895	44%	67%	+$2,580	-$0	0.0%	$11,445 (vs do-nothing +$2,905)
$242.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.70	4/10	$8,933	$12,517	43%	66%	+$1,566	-$0	0.0%	$10,344 (vs do-nothing +$1,804)
$242.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/10	$10,286	$13,869	42%	66%	+$2,056	-$0	0.0%	$10,064 (vs do-nothing +$1,524)
$242.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.90	2/10	$8,850	$13,628	39%	67%	+$2,655	-$0	0.0%	$9,282 (vs do-nothing +$742)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 19:31