FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $247.44

BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $238.34 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $247.44 UNDERWATER $8.81 (3.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

AMZN reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 18 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $238.34 (banked floor $236.15) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)

SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)

HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$67,500	(ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000
Normal income ref	$9,761/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,014/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$8,175	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,880/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$9,761/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.8 mo to earn back $37,500

ML VELOCITY
6.9 mo to earn back $67,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $238.34 (probe: $245C 14d) still earns $9,761/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,835

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$238.34 → $236.15

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 78 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $287.12 (+16%) · daily UBB $252.68 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $238.34 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $252.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $252.50)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$1,900

Income / mo

$14,250

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.96/sh now → $2.80 mid-life (likely $3.33–$5.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,282 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $256 (overshoots $3.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$252	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.63/sh	+$629 cycle +$2,529 [+$134…+$615] · 85% credit	65% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$253	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.60/sh	+$605 cycle +$2,505 [+$98…+$590] · 83% credit	65% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$268	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.19/sh	+$1,189 cycle +$3,089 [-$365…+$916] · 65% credit	79% surv 74%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$273	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.22/sh	+$224 cycle +$2,124 [-$1,545…-$110] · 22% credit	83% surv 80%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$285	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.51/sh	-$1,509 cycle +$391 [-$3,769…-$1,969]	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $1,900 debit $1,509 (79% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$391 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,415/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $257.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $257.50)

84%

Touch odds

32%

Per cycle

$860

Income / mo

$6,450

Buyback gross: $4.03/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $2.60–$4.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 587 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $260 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$258	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.55/sh	+$553 cycle +$1,413 [+$264…+$959] · 91% credit	65% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$258	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.53/sh	+$529 cycle +$1,389 [+$227…+$933] · 90% credit	65% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$275	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.70/sh	+$702 cycle +$1,562 [-$532…+$916] · 60% credit	81% surv 77%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$278	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.18/sh	+$178 cycle +$1,038 [-$1,159…+$370] · 37% credit	83% surv 80%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$280	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.29/sh	-$292 cycle +$568 [-$1,728…-$115] · 22% credit	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $860 debit $292 (34% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$568 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,802/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $265 22 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $265)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$600

Income / mo

$2,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.03/sh now → $4.26 mid-life (likely $3.62–$6.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 423 simulated challenges: the $265 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $268 (overshoots $2.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$265	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.28/sh	+$277 cycle +$877 [+$40…+$647] · 78% credit	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$265	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.25/sh	+$248 cycle +$848 [+$4…+$615] · 76% credit	66% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$275	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.53/sh	+$532 cycle +$1,132 [-$327…+$796] · 62% credit	75% surv 68%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$278	31 Jul 2026	14d left	-$0.13/sh	-$135 cycle +$465 [-$1,120…+$114] · 30% credit	77% surv 72%
budget: banked $600 debit $135 (22% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$465 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $8,845/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.885 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $11,225

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$257.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$0.86	8/10	$5,160	$6,824	84%	86%	+$1,988	-$0	0.0%	$9,473 (vs do-nothing $-1,752)
$270	18d	31 Jul 2026	$2.95	10/10	$4,917	$4,917	81%	84%	+$1,585	-$0	0.0%	$11,125 (vs do-nothing $-100)
$260	11d	24 Jul 2026	$1.85	10/10	$5,045	$5,045	79%	83%	+$1,529	-$0	0.0%	$10,025 (vs do-nothing $-1,200)
$267.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$3.45	9/10	$5,175	$6,007	79%	82%	+$1,571	-$0	0.0%	$11,585 (vs do-nothing +$360)
$255	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.29	6/10	$5,805	$9,132	78%	81%	+$1,797	-$0	0.0%	$10,169 (vs do-nothing $-1,056)
$257.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$1.57	10/10	$5,233	$5,233	78%	82%	+$1,159	-$0	0.0%	$9,745 (vs do-nothing $-1,480)
$265	18d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	8/10	$5,333	$6,997	76%	80%	+$1,500	-$0	0.0%	$11,985 (vs do-nothing +$760)
$255	7d	20 Jul 2026	$1.56	8/10	$5,349	$7,012	76%	80%	+$1,401	-$0	0.0%	$10,033 (vs do-nothing $-1,192)
$257.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$2.37	8/10	$5,171	$6,835	75%	79%	+$1,312	-$0	0.0%	$10,681 (vs do-nothing $-544)
$262.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$4.45	7/10	$5,192	$7,687	73%	79%	+$1,198	-$0	0.0%	$12,205 (vs do-nothing +$980)
$255	9d	22 Jul 2026	$2.15	7/10	$5,017	$7,512	72%	78%	+$882	-$0	0.0%	$10,595 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$260	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.30	6/10	$5,300	$8,627	70%	77%	+$1,244	-$0	0.0%	$12,575 (vs do-nothing +$1,350)
$252.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.90	4/10	$5,700	$10,691	70%	76%	+$1,379	-$0	0.0%	$10,765 (vs do-nothing $-460)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$255	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.05	6/10	$4,991	$8,318	70%	76%	+$1,084	-$0	0.0%	$11,225 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$252.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.22	6/10	$5,709	$9,036	68%	75%	+$1,131	-$0	0.0%	$10,727 (vs do-nothing $-498)
$257.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	5/10	$5,000	$9,159	67%	75%	+$1,016	-$0	0.0%	$12,700 (vs do-nothing +$1,475)
$252.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$2.95	5/10	$4,917	$9,076	66%	74%	+$752	-$0	0.0%	$11,175 (vs do-nothing $-50)
$252.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	5/10	$5,250	$9,409	64%	73%	+$931	-$0	0.0%	$11,625 (vs do-nothing +$400)
$255	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.95	5/10	$5,792	$9,951	63%	73%	+$1,121	-$0	0.0%	$13,175 (vs do-nothing +$1,950)
$250	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.10	4/10	$5,314	$10,305	60%	70%	+$775	-$0	0.0%	$11,245 (vs do-nothing +$20)
$252.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.85	4/10	$5,233	$10,224	60%	71%	+$876	-$0	0.0%	$13,145 (vs do-nothing +$1,920)
$250	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.65	5/10	$6,083	$10,242	59%	70%	+$374	-$0	0.0%	$11,525 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$250	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.85	4/10	$5,291	$10,282	58%	69%	+$789	-$0	0.0%	$11,945 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$250	14d	27 Jul 2026	$5.10	5/10	$5,464	$9,623	57%	69%	+$445	-$0	0.0%	$12,250 (vs do-nothing +$1,025)
$250	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.00	4/10	$6,000	$10,991	56%	69%	+$948	-$0	0.0%	$13,605 (vs do-nothing +$2,380)
$247.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.20	3/10	$5,100	$10,923	52%	67%	+$719	-$0	0.0%	$13,370 (vs do-nothing +$2,145)
$247.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	4/10	$6,491	$11,482	51%	66%	+$735	-$0	0.0%	$12,385 (vs do-nothing +$1,160)
$247.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.75	4/10	$6,333	$11,324	51%	66%	+$243	-$0	0.0%	$11,905 (vs do-nothing +$680)
$247.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.05	3/10	$5,207	$11,030	51%	66%	+$345	-$0	0.0%	$11,525 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$247.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.70	2/10	$5,550	$12,205	51%	66%	+$586	-$0	0.0%	$11,355 (vs do-nothing +$130)
$245	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.40	3/10	$5,700	$11,523	47%	69%	+$1,708	-$0	0.0%	$13,730 (vs do-nothing +$2,505)
$245	14d	27 Jul 2026	$7.00	4/10	$6,000	$10,991	46%	65%	$-182	-$0	0.0%	$12,805 (vs do-nothing +$1,580)
$245	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.30	3/10	$5,973	$11,795	45%	64%	+$556	-$0	0.0%	$12,500 (vs do-nothing +$1,275)
$245	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.15	3/10	$6,150	$11,973	44%	63%	+$219	-$0	0.0%	$12,155 (vs do-nothing +$930)
$245	7d	20 Jul 2026	$5.15	3/10	$6,621	$12,444	42%	62%	$-48	-$0	0.0%	$11,855 (vs do-nothing +$630)
$242.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$12.60	3/10	$6,300	$12,123	42%	67%	+$1,591	-$0	0.0%	$14,090 (vs do-nothing +$2,865)
$245	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.00	2/10	$7,500	$14,155	41%	61%	+$450	-$0	0.0%	$11,615 (vs do-nothing +$390)
$242.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.70	3/10	$7,118	$12,941	39%	61%	+$445	-$0	0.0%	$12,920 (vs do-nothing +$1,695)
$242.50	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.50	2/10	$5,000	$11,655	37%	60%	$-4	-$0	0.0%	$12,115 (vs do-nothing +$890)
$242.50	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.40	2/10	$5,486	$12,140	34%	60%	$-385	-$0	0.0%	$11,895 (vs do-nothing +$670)
$242.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$6.55	1/10	$4,912	$12,399	32%	58%	+$120	-$0	0.0%	$11,575 (vs do-nothing +$350)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 22:11