FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $228.97

BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $242.30 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $228.97 UNDERWATER $27.28 (10.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

AMZN reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 2 days. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $242.30 (banked floor $237.55) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)

SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)

HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$67,500	(ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000
Normal income ref	$18,964/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,403/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-10,825	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,482/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$18,964/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $37,500

ML VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $67,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $242.30 (probe: $240C 14d) still earns $8,464/mo (45% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$4,084

Hole (after banked)

$6,741

was $10,825 · 38% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$2,584

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$242.30 → $237.55

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
10x $255C 31 Jul 2026	U6241782	$2.58	$2,584	2026-07-23

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 33 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 34 · %B 8 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $285.06 (+24%) · daily UBB $257.80 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $242.30 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $242.50 14 Aug 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $242.50)

69%

Touch odds

66%

Per cycle

$5,000

Income / mo

$9,375

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $11.45/sh now → $8.10 mid-life (likely $9.72–$12.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,661 simulated challenges: the $242 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 16, at $247 (overshoots $4.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$242	21 Aug 2026	15d left	+$1.06/sh	+$1,058 cycle +$6,058 [+$536…+$1,831] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$241	21 Aug 2026	15d left	+$1.79/sh	+$1,790 cycle +$6,790 [+$1,308…+$2,753] · 100% credit	67% surv 49%
SS $256 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$259	21 Aug 2026	15d left	-$4.88/sh	-$4,879 cycle +$121 [-$6,813…-$5,596]	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $5,000 debit $4,879 (98% used ≈ 2.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$121 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,441/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $245 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $245)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$2,690

Income / mo

$40,350

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.39/sh now → $6.64 mid-life (likely $7.52–$14.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 658 simulated challenges: the $245 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $253 (overshoots $7.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$249	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.75/sh	+$2,749 cycle +$5,439 [+$870…+$2,963] · 82% credit	71% surv 58%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$245	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$1.36/sh	+$1,364 cycle +$4,054 [+$381…+$1,473] · 81% credit	68% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$246	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.83/sh	+$827 cycle +$3,517 [-$447…+$808] · 63% credit	69% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$254	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.65/sh	+$645 cycle +$3,335 [-$2,158…+$562] · 42% credit	74% surv 65%
SS $256 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$264	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$2.49/sh	-$2,487 cycle +$203 [-$6,954…-$2,820]	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $2,690 debit $2,487 (92% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$203 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,660/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $257.50 7 Aug 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $257.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,410

Income / mo

$4,700

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$261	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.56/sh	+$560 cycle +$1,970 [-$223…+$2,389] · 69% credit	71% surv 58%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$264	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.49/sh	-$491 cycle +$919 [-$1,471…+$1,233] · 41% credit	73% surv 62%
budget: banked $1,410 debit $491 (35% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$919 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $12,301/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$258	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.21/sh	-$208 cycle +$1,202 [-$1,282…+$701] · 37% credit	64% surv 52%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (64 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 64 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.838 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,170 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,945

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$257.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.81	8/10	$9,720	$10,520	94%	94%	+$6,638	-$0	0.0%	$1,313 (vs do-nothing $-632)
$255	2d	31 Jul 2026	$1.05	7/10	$11,025	$12,225	92%	93%	+$7,145	-$0	0.0%	$1,560 (vs do-nothing $-385)
$252.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$1.35	5/10	$10,125	$12,125	90%	91%	+$6,191	-$0	0.0%	$1,820 (vs do-nothing $-125)
$250	2d	31 Jul 2026	$1.75	4/10	$10,500	$12,900	87%	89%	+$6,101	-$0	0.0%	$2,005 (vs do-nothing +$60)
$250	5d	3 Aug 2026	$1.91	9/10	$10,314	$10,714	86%	88%	+$5,029	-$0	0.0%	$2,224 (vs do-nothing +$279)
$247.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$2.16	3/10	$9,720	$12,520	84%	87%	+$5,185	-$0	0.0%	$2,113 (vs do-nothing +$168)
$247.50	5d	3 Aug 2026	$2.33	7/10	$9,786	$10,986	83%	86%	+$4,378	-$0	0.0%	$2,456 (vs do-nothing +$511)
$247.50	7d	5 Aug 2026	$2.58	9/10	$9,951	$10,351	82%	85%	+$4,419	-$0	0.0%	$2,827 (vs do-nothing +$882)
$245	2d	31 Jul 2026	$2.69	3/10	$12,105	$14,905	81%	85%	+$5,976	-$0	0.0%	$2,272 (vs do-nothing +$327)
$247.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	10/10	$10,000	$10,000	81%	84%	+$4,296	-$0	0.0%	$3,345 (vs do-nothing +$1,400)
$245	5d	3 Aug 2026	$2.85	6/10	$10,260	$11,860	80%	83%	+$4,233	-$0	0.0%	$2,695 (vs do-nothing +$750)
$245	7d	5 Aug 2026	$3.10	8/10	$10,629	$11,429	79%	83%	+$4,293	-$0	0.0%	$3,145 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$245	9d	7 Aug 2026	$3.60	8/10	$9,600	$10,400	78%	82%	+$3,867	-$0	0.0%	$3,545 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)

Show 51 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$242.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$3.30	2/10	$9,900	$13,100	77%	82%	+$4,472	-$0	0.0%	$2,285 (vs do-nothing +$340)
$242.50	5d	3 Aug 2026	$3.45	5/10	$10,350	$12,350	76%	81%	+$3,897	-$0	0.0%	$2,870 (vs do-nothing +$925)
$242.50	7d	5 Aug 2026	$3.75	6/10	$9,643	$11,243	75%	81%	+$3,594	-$0	0.0%	$3,235 (vs do-nothing +$1,290)
$242.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$4.20	7/10	$9,800	$11,000	74%	80%	+$3,553	-$0	0.0%	$3,765 (vs do-nothing +$1,820)
$240	2d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	2/10	$12,000	$15,200	73%	80%	+$4,911	-$0	0.0%	$1,965 (vs do-nothing +$20)
$240	5d	3 Aug 2026	$4.25	4/10	$10,200	$12,600	72%	79%	+$3,645	-$0	0.0%	$2,085 (vs do-nothing +$140)
$240	7d	5 Aug 2026	$4.50	5/10	$9,643	$11,643	71%	78%	+$3,302	-$0	0.0%	$2,245 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$240	9d	7 Aug 2026	$5.00	6/10	$10,000	$11,600	71%	78%	+$3,391	-$0	0.0%	$2,605 (vs do-nothing +$660)
$237.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$4.80	2/10	$14,400	$17,600	69%	77%	+$5,294	-$0	0.0%	$1,625 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$237.50	5d	3 Aug 2026	$5.00	4/10	$12,000	$14,400	68%	76%	+$3,775	-$0	0.0%	$1,385 (vs do-nothing $-560)
$240	12d	10 Aug 2026	$4.95	8/10	$9,900	$10,700	67%	74%	$-78	-$0	0.0%	$2,786 (vs do-nothing +$840)
$237.50	7d	5 Aug 2026	$5.35	5/10	$11,464	$13,464	67%	76%	+$3,581	-$0	0.0%	$1,420 (vs do-nothing $-525)
$237.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$5.80	5/10	$9,667	$11,667	67%	76%	+$2,930	-$0	0.0%	$1,645 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$240	16d	14 Aug 2026	$5.80	9/10	$9,788	$10,188	66%	72%	$-890	-$0	0.0%	$3,656 (vs do-nothing +$1,710)
$237.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$7.50	10/10	$9,783	$9,783	65%	75%	+$2,858	-$0	0.0%	$3,046 (vs do-nothing +$1,100)
$235	2d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	2/10	$17,100	$20,300	64%	75%	+$5,591	-$320	0.9%	$1,305 (vs do-nothing $-640)
$235	5d	3 Aug 2026	$5.90	3/10	$10,620	$13,420	63%	74%	+$2,971	-$420	1.1%	$1,045 (vs do-nothing $-900)
$237.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$6.70	8/10	$10,050	$10,850	63%	71%	$-712	-$0	0.0%	$2,186 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$235	7d	5 Aug 2026	$6.30	4/10	$10,800	$13,200	63%	74%	+$3,050	-$400	1.1%	$905 (vs do-nothing $-1,040)
$235	9d	7 Aug 2026	$6.75	5/10	$11,250	$13,250	63%	73%	+$3,088	-$275	0.7%	$870 (vs do-nothing $-1,075)
$235	23d	21 Aug 2026	$8.55	9/10	$10,037	$10,437	61%	73%	+$2,751	-$0	0.0%	$1,631 (vs do-nothing $-315)
$235	12d	10 Aug 2026	$6.70	6/10	$10,050	$11,650	61%	70%	+$9	-$360	1.0%	$625 (vs do-nothing $-1,320)
$235	14d	12 Aug 2026	$5.95	8/10	$10,200	$11,000	60%	69%	$-2,527	-$1,080	2.9%	$-414 (vs do-nothing $-2,360)
$235	16d	14 Aug 2026	$7.65	7/10	$10,041	$11,241	60%	69%	$-599	-$0	0.0%	$1,070 (vs do-nothing $-875)
$232.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$6.75	1/10	$10,125	$13,725	59%	72%	+$2,962	-$305	0.8%	$1,480 (vs do-nothing $-465)
$232.50	5d	3 Aug 2026	$7.05	3/10	$12,690	$15,490	59%	72%	+$3,316	-$825	2.2%	$640 (vs do-nothing $-1,305)
$232.50	7d	5 Aug 2026	$7.35	4/10	$12,600	$15,000	58%	71%	+$3,183	-$980	2.6%	$325 (vs do-nothing $-1,620)
$232.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$7.85	4/10	$10,467	$12,867	58%	71%	+$2,628	-$780	2.1%	$525 (vs do-nothing $-1,420)
$232.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$9.60	8/10	$10,017	$10,817	58%	71%	+$2,492	-$160	0.4%	$506 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$232.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$8.65	6/10	$9,731	$11,331	57%	67%	$-534	-$690	1.8%	$295 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$230	16d	14 Aug 2026	$9.85	6/10	$11,081	$12,681	54%	66%	$-430	-$1,470	3.9%	$-485 (vs do-nothing $-2,430)
$230	14d	12 Aug 2026	$8.85	5/10	$9,482	$11,482	54%	66%	$-739	-$1,725	4.6%	$-580 (vs do-nothing $-2,525)
$230	12d	10 Aug 2026	$8.95	5/10	$11,188	$13,188	54%	67%	+$193	-$1,675	4.5%	$-530 (vs do-nothing $-2,475)
$230	2d	31 Jul 2026	$7.90	1/10	$11,850	$15,450	54%	70%	+$3,063	-$440	1.2%	$1,345 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$230	5d	3 Aug 2026	$8.15	2/10	$9,780	$12,980	54%	69%	+$2,208	-$830	2.2%	$795 (vs do-nothing $-1,150)
$230	7d	5 Aug 2026	$8.50	3/10	$10,929	$13,729	54%	69%	+$2,440	-$1,140	3.0%	$325 (vs do-nothing $-1,620)
$230	9d	7 Aug 2026	$9.00	4/10	$12,000	$14,400	54%	69%	+$2,678	-$1,320	3.5%	$-15 (vs do-nothing $-1,960)
$227.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$11.00	5/10	$10,312	$12,312	51%	65%	$-405	-$1,900	5.1%	$-755 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$227.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$12.00	7/10	$10,957	$12,157	50%	68%	+$2,227	-$1,960	5.2%	$-1,135 (vs do-nothing $-3,080)
$227.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$10.25	3/10	$10,250	$13,050	49%	67%	+$2,012	-$1,365	3.6%	$100 (vs do-nothing $-1,845)
$225	23d	21 Aug 2026	$13.35	6/10	$10,448	$12,048	49%	63%	$-1,147	-$2,370	6.3%	$-1,385 (vs do-nothing $-3,330)
$227.50	7d	5 Aug 2026	$9.60	3/10	$12,343	$15,143	49%	67%	+$2,248	-$1,560	4.2%	$-95 (vs do-nothing $-2,040)
$227.50	5d	3 Aug 2026	$9.45	2/10	$11,340	$14,540	49%	67%	+$2,269	-$1,070	2.9%	$555 (vs do-nothing $-1,390)
$227.50	2d	31 Jul 2026	$9.20	1/10	$13,800	$17,400	48%	68%	+$3,164	-$560	1.5%	$1,225 (vs do-nothing $-720)
$225	16d	14 Aug 2026	$12.25	5/10	$11,484	$13,484	48%	63%	$-445	-$2,525	6.7%	$-1,380 (vs do-nothing $-3,325)
$225	14d	12 Aug 2026	$10.35	5/10	$11,089	$13,089	47%	63%	$-1,819	-$3,475	9.3%	$-2,330 (vs do-nothing $-4,275)
$225	12d	10 Aug 2026	$10.75	4/10	$10,750	$13,150	47%	63%	$-571	-$2,620	7.0%	$-1,315 (vs do-nothing $-3,260)
$225	9d	7 Aug 2026	$11.60	3/10	$11,600	$14,400	45%	65%	+$1,981	-$1,710	4.6%	$-245 (vs do-nothing $-2,190)
$225	7d	5 Aug 2026	$10.55	3/10	$13,564	$16,364	44%	65%	+$1,682	-$2,025	5.4%	$-560 (vs do-nothing $-2,505)
$225	5d	3 Aug 2026	$10.80	2/10	$12,960	$16,160	44%	65%	+$2,212	-$1,300	3.5%	$325 (vs do-nothing $-1,620)
$225	2d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	1/10	$15,900	$19,500	43%	66%	+$3,184	-$670	1.8%	$1,115 (vs do-nothing $-830)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-29 21:41