FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $233.43

BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $248.89 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $233.43 UNDERWATER $22.82 (8.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

AMZN reports 2026-07-30 (Thu), TODAY. The recommended CC (4d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $248.89 (banked floor $244.25) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)

SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)

HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$67,500	(ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000
Normal income ref	$12,640/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,603/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-12,900	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,320/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$12,640/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $37,500

ML VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $67,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $248.89 (probe: $250C 13d) still earns $5,031/mo (40% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$4,084

Hole (after banked)

$8,816

was $12,900 · 32% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$2,584

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$248.89 → $244.25

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
10x $255C 31 Jul 2026	U6241782	$2.58	$2,584	2026-07-23

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 38 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 21 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $285.12 (+22%) · daily UBB $257.74 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-30: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $248.89 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $250 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $250)

81%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$1,380

Income / mo

$10,350

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.41/sh now → $4.53 mid-life (likely $4.86–$7.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 807 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $256 (overshoots $5.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$254	21 Aug 2026	20d left	+$1.50/sh	+$1,502 cycle +$2,882 [+$344…+$2,058] · 84% credit	67% surv 58%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$250	5 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.16/sh	+$164 cycle +$1,544 [-$541…+$443] · 43% credit	62% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$259	21 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.02/sh	+$16 cycle +$1,396 [-$1,527…+$284] · 30% credit	71% surv 65%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$264	21 Aug 2026	20d left	-$1.16/sh	-$1,161 cycle +$219 [-$3,042…-$1,138] · 8% credit	76% surv 72%
budget: banked $1,380 debit $1,161 (84% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$219 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,058/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $260 5 Aug 2026 (6d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $260)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$580

Income / mo

$2,900

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$264	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.73/sh	+$734 cycle +$1,314 [-$28…+$1,999] · 74% credit	67% surv 58%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$260	7 Aug 2026	5d left	-$0.12/sh	-$124 cycle +$456 [-$564…+$559] · 48% credit	62% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$267	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.06/sh	-$56 cycle +$524 [-$1,004…+$1,058] · 48% credit	69% surv 62%
budget: banked $580 debit $56 (10% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$524 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $7,982/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $290 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $290)

99%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$40

Income / mo

$300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$290	5 Aug 2026	4d left	-$0.38/sh	-$375 cycle -$335	62% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$294	14 Aug 2026	13d left	+$0.11/sh	+$113 cycle +$153	64% surv 57%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (49 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 49 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.823 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$12,726 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,006

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$255	4d	3 Aug 2026	$0.89	10/10	$6,675	$6,675	87%	88%	+$749	-$0	0.0%	$716 (vs do-nothing $-290)
$252.50	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.12	8/10	$6,720	$7,364	84%	86%	+$407	-$0	0.0%	$958 (vs do-nothing $-48)
$250	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.38	7/10	$7,245	$8,210	81%	83%	$-33	-$0	0.0%	$1,146 (vs do-nothing +$140)
$250	6d	5 Aug 2026	$1.53	9/10	$6,885	$7,207	80%	82%	$-944	-$0	0.0%	$1,321 (vs do-nothing +$315)
$250	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.96	9/10	$6,615	$6,937	78%	80%	$-655	-$0	0.0%	$1,708 (vs do-nothing +$702)
$247.50	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.80	5/10	$6,750	$8,359	78%	81%	$-22	-$0	0.0%	$619 (vs do-nothing $-386)
$247.50	6d	5 Aug 2026	$1.65	8/10	$6,600	$7,244	76%	79%	$-2,226	-$0	0.0%	$268 (vs do-nothing $-738)
$247.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.32	8/10	$6,960	$7,604	75%	78%	$-1,003	-$0	0.0%	$804 (vs do-nothing $-202)
$245	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.10	5/10	$7,875	$9,484	74%	77%	$-847	-$896	2.4%	$-481 (vs do-nothing $-1,486)
$245	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.48	6/10	$7,440	$8,727	72%	76%	$-875	-$848	2.3%	$-550 (vs do-nothing $-1,556)
$245	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.82	6/10	$6,345	$7,632	71%	75%	$-964	-$644	1.7%	$-346 (vs do-nothing $-1,352)
$242.50	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.31	4/10	$6,930	$8,861	70%	74%	$-1,950	-$1,633	4.4%	$-1,099 (vs do-nothing $-2,105)
$245	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.50	10/10	$7,000	$7,000	69%	74%	$-1,017	-$393	1.0%	$-567 (vs do-nothing $-1,573)

Show 36 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$245	11d	10 Aug 2026	$3.00	8/10	$6,545	$7,189	69%	73%	$-3,024	-$714	1.9%	$-652 (vs do-nothing $-1,658)
$242.50	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.64	5/10	$6,600	$8,209	68%	73%	$-2,018	-$1,876	5.0%	$-1,461 (vs do-nothing $-2,466)
$245	13d	12 Aug 2026	$3.05	9/10	$6,335	$6,656	68%	72%	$-4,219	-$758	2.0%	$-815 (vs do-nothing $-1,820)
$242.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.40	5/10	$6,375	$7,984	67%	73%	$-1,026	-$1,496	4.0%	$-1,081 (vs do-nothing $-2,086)
$242.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.85	10/10	$6,614	$6,614	65%	71%	$-785	-$1,543	4.1%	$-1,717 (vs do-nothing $-2,723)
$240	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.89	3/10	$6,502	$8,755	65%	71%	$-1,870	-$1,801	4.8%	$-1,149 (vs do-nothing $-2,155)
$240	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.50	4/10	$7,000	$8,931	64%	71%	$-1,488	-$2,157	5.8%	$-1,623 (vs do-nothing $-2,629)
$242.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.05	8/10	$6,480	$7,124	64%	69%	$-4,008	-$1,874	5.0%	$-1,812 (vs do-nothing $-2,818)
$240	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.00	5/10	$7,500	$9,109	63%	70%	$-1,427	-$2,446	6.5%	$-2,031 (vs do-nothing $-3,036)
$240	11d	10 Aug 2026	$3.85	7/10	$7,350	$8,315	63%	70%	$-2,156	-$3,530	9.4%	$-3,350 (vs do-nothing $-4,356)
$240	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.55	9/10	$6,811	$7,133	62%	69%	$-925	-$3,008	8.0%	$-3,065 (vs do-nothing $-4,070)
$240	13d	12 Aug 2026	$4.15	7/10	$6,704	$7,669	61%	67%	$-4,224	-$3,320	8.9%	$-3,140 (vs do-nothing $-4,146)
$240	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.75	7/10	$6,650	$7,615	61%	67%	$-3,793	-$2,900	7.7%	$-2,720 (vs do-nothing $-3,726)
$237.50	4d	3 Aug 2026	$3.60	3/10	$8,100	$10,353	60%	68%	$-2,297	-$2,338	6.2%	$-1,686 (vs do-nothing $-2,692)
$237.50	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.95	4/10	$7,900	$9,831	60%	68%	$-2,443	-$2,977	7.9%	$-2,443 (vs do-nothing $-3,449)
$237.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.35	4/10	$6,525	$8,456	59%	67%	$-2,021	-$2,817	7.5%	$-2,283 (vs do-nothing $-3,289)
$237.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.35	8/10	$6,927	$7,571	58%	67%	$-1,020	-$4,034	10.8%	$-3,972 (vs do-nothing $-4,978)
$237.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.50	6/10	$6,600	$7,887	58%	65%	$-3,544	-$3,536	9.4%	$-3,238 (vs do-nothing $-4,244)
$235	4d	3 Aug 2026	$4.70	2/10	$7,050	$9,625	55%	65%	$-1,452	-$1,839	4.9%	$-1,069 (vs do-nothing $-2,075)
$235	6d	5 Aug 2026	$5.10	3/10	$7,650	$9,903	55%	65%	$-1,706	-$2,638	7.0%	$-1,986 (vs do-nothing $-2,992)
$235	8d	7 Aug 2026	$5.50	4/10	$8,250	$10,181	55%	65%	$-1,895	-$3,357	9.0%	$-2,823 (vs do-nothing $-3,829)
$235	11d	10 Aug 2026	$5.65	5/10	$7,705	$9,314	55%	65%	$-1,817	-$4,121	11.0%	$-3,706 (vs do-nothing $-4,711)
$235	15d	14 Aug 2026	$6.30	6/10	$7,560	$8,847	55%	63%	$-3,889	-$4,556	12.1%	$-4,258 (vs do-nothing $-5,264)
$235	13d	12 Aug 2026	$4.85	6/10	$6,715	$8,003	55%	63%	$-5,513	-$5,426	14.5%	$-5,128 (vs do-nothing $-6,134)
$235	22d	21 Aug 2026	$7.20	7/10	$6,873	$7,838	55%	65%	$-1,120	-$4,685	12.5%	$-4,505 (vs do-nothing $-5,511)
$232.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/10	$7,250	$8,859	51%	61%	$-3,474	-$4,571	12.2%	$-4,156 (vs do-nothing $-5,161)
$232.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$8.10	6/10	$6,627	$7,915	51%	63%	$-1,204	-$4,976	13.3%	$-4,678 (vs do-nothing $-5,684)
$232.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$6.45	3/10	$7,256	$9,509	50%	62%	$-1,702	-$2,983	8.0%	$-2,331 (vs do-nothing $-3,337)
$232.50	6d	5 Aug 2026	$5.90	3/10	$8,850	$11,103	50%	62%	$-2,318	-$3,148	8.4%	$-2,496 (vs do-nothing $-3,502)
$232.50	4d	3 Aug 2026	$5.55	2/10	$8,325	$10,900	50%	62%	$-1,979	-$2,169	5.8%	$-1,399 (vs do-nothing $-2,405)
$230	15d	14 Aug 2026	$8.30	4/10	$6,640	$8,571	48%	59%	$-2,963	-$4,237	11.3%	$-3,703 (vs do-nothing $-4,709)
$230	13d	12 Aug 2026	$6.80	5/10	$7,846	$9,455	48%	59%	$-5,200	-$6,046	16.1%	$-5,631 (vs do-nothing $-6,636)
$230	11d	10 Aug 2026	$6.95	4/10	$7,582	$9,513	46%	60%	$-2,779	-$4,777	12.7%	$-4,243 (vs do-nothing $-5,249)
$230	8d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	3/10	$7,875	$10,128	46%	59%	$-2,584	-$3,568	9.5%	$-2,916 (vs do-nothing $-3,922)
$230	6d	5 Aug 2026	$6.85	2/10	$6,850	$9,425	45%	59%	$-1,949	-$2,409	6.4%	$-1,639 (vs do-nothing $-2,645)
$230	4d	3 Aug 2026	$6.30	2/10	$9,450	$12,025	44%	59%	$-2,892	-$2,519	6.7%	$-1,749 (vs do-nothing $-2,755)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 19:14