FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $232.28

BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $243.15 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $232.28 UNDERWATER $23.97 (9.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

AMZN reports 2026-07-30 (Thu), TODAY. The recommended CC (4d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $256.25 | CC-SS: $243.15 (banked floor $238.40) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $215 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $53.971/sh)

SP: $260 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $44.413/sh)

HP: $230 exp 2027-07-16 (entry $27.904/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$67,500	(ND $37.50 + SW $30) x 1000
Normal income ref	$20,300/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,350/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-8,825	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,150/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$20,300/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $37,500

ML VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $67,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $243.15 (probe: $242.5C 15d) still earns $12,100/mo (60% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$4,084

Hole (after banked)

$4,741

was $8,825 · 46% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$2,584

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$243.15 → $238.40

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
10x $255C 31 Jul 2026	U6241782	$2.58	$2,584	2026-07-23

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 36 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 21 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $285.03 (+23%) · daily UBB $257.94 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-30: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $243.15 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $245 21 Aug 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $245)

70%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$6,100

Income / mo

$8,318

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $250 3 Aug 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $250)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$2,420

Income / mo

$18,150

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.49/sh now → $6.71 mid-life (likely $7.15–$11.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 808 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $256 (overshoots $6.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$253	14 Aug 2026	13d left	+$1.67/sh	+$1,669 cycle +$4,089 [+$273…+$2,627] · 82% credit	69% surv 56%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$250	5 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.58/sh	+$577 cycle +$2,997 [-$193…+$1,179] · 65% credit	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$250	5 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.47/sh	+$466 cycle +$2,886 [-$322…+$1,037] · 61% credit	67% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$258	21 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.69/sh	+$690 cycle +$3,110 [-$1,157…+$1,410] · 49% credit	73% surv 64%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$268	21 Aug 2026	20d left	-$2.42/sh	-$2,415 cycle +$5 [-$5,204…-$2,387] · 4% credit	81% surv 76%
budget: banked $2,420 debit $2,415 (100% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,442/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $270 12 Aug 2026 (13d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $270)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$550

Income / mo

$1,269

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$270	21 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.19/sh	+$191 cycle +$741 [-$218…+$2,681] · 69% credit	67% surv 52%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$270	14 Aug 2026	8d left	-$1.23/sh	-$1,230 cycle -$680 [-$1,578…+$216] · 29% credit	67% surv 51%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (49 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 49 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.835 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,074 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,449

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$255	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.58	9/10	$10,665	$11,265	87%	89%	+$5,003	-$0	0.0%	$1,891 (vs do-nothing $-558)
$252.50	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.96	7/10	$10,290	$12,090	84%	87%	+$4,455	-$0	0.0%	$2,281 (vs do-nothing $-168)
$252.50	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.22	10/10	$11,100	$11,100	83%	86%	+$4,542	-$0	0.0%	$2,469 (vs do-nothing +$20)
$252.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.72	10/10	$10,200	$10,200	82%	85%	+$4,084	-$0	0.0%	$2,969 (vs do-nothing +$520)
$250	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.42	6/10	$10,890	$13,290	82%	84%	+$4,348	-$0	0.0%	$2,581 (vs do-nothing +$132)
$250	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.75	8/10	$11,000	$12,200	80%	84%	+$4,285	-$0	0.0%	$2,889 (vs do-nothing +$440)
$250	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.20	9/10	$10,800	$11,400	79%	83%	+$3,941	-$0	0.0%	$3,349 (vs do-nothing +$900)
$247.50	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.98	5/10	$11,175	$14,175	78%	82%	+$4,136	-$0	0.0%	$2,839 (vs do-nothing +$390)
$247.50	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.30	7/10	$11,550	$13,350	77%	82%	+$4,104	-$0	0.0%	$3,219 (vs do-nothing +$770)
$247.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.80	8/10	$11,400	$12,600	76%	81%	+$3,861	-$0	0.0%	$3,729 (vs do-nothing +$1,280)
$245	4d	3 Aug 2026	$3.60	4/10	$10,800	$14,400	75%	80%	+$3,620	-$0	0.0%	$3,009 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$245	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.90	6/10	$11,700	$14,100	74%	79%	+$3,695	-$0	0.0%	$3,469 (vs do-nothing +$1,020)
$245	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.40	7/10	$11,550	$13,350	72%	78%	+$3,457	-$0	0.0%	$3,989 (vs do-nothing +$1,540)

Show 36 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$245	11d	10 Aug 2026	$4.50	9/10	$11,045	$11,645	72%	79%	+$3,418	-$0	0.0%	$4,519 (vs do-nothing +$2,070)
$245	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.25	10/10	$10,500	$10,500	71%	78%	+$2,946	-$0	0.0%	$5,499 (vs do-nothing +$3,050)
$242.50	4d	3 Aug 2026	$4.30	4/10	$12,900	$16,500	71%	77%	+$3,855	-$0	0.0%	$3,030 (vs do-nothing +$581)
$242.50	6d	5 Aug 2026	$4.65	5/10	$11,625	$14,625	70%	77%	+$3,343	-$0	0.0%	$3,351 (vs do-nothing +$901)
$242.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$5.20	6/10	$11,700	$14,100	69%	76%	+$3,259	-$0	0.0%	$3,861 (vs do-nothing +$1,411)
$242.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$6.05	9/10	$10,890	$11,490	68%	76%	+$2,818	-$0	0.0%	$5,332 (vs do-nothing +$2,882)
$240	4d	3 Aug 2026	$5.15	3/10	$11,588	$15,788	66%	75%	+$3,143	-$0	0.0%	$2,390 (vs do-nothing $-59)
$240	6d	5 Aug 2026	$5.45	4/10	$10,900	$14,500	66%	75%	+$2,758	-$0	0.0%	$2,490 (vs do-nothing +$41)
$240	8d	7 Aug 2026	$6.00	5/10	$11,250	$14,250	65%	74%	+$2,760	-$0	0.0%	$2,776 (vs do-nothing +$326)
$240	11d	10 Aug 2026	$6.05	7/10	$11,550	$13,350	65%	74%	+$2,861	-$0	0.0%	$2,941 (vs do-nothing +$492)
$240	13d	12 Aug 2026	$5.85	8/10	$10,800	$12,000	65%	74%	+$1,930	-$0	0.0%	$2,851 (vs do-nothing +$402)
$240	15d	14 Aug 2026	$6.95	8/10	$11,120	$12,320	64%	74%	+$2,652	-$0	0.0%	$3,731 (vs do-nothing +$1,282)
$240	22d	21 Aug 2026	$7.85	10/10	$10,705	$10,705	63%	73%	+$2,611	-$0	0.0%	$4,952 (vs do-nothing +$2,502)
$237.50	4d	3 Aug 2026	$5.90	3/10	$13,275	$17,475	62%	72%	+$2,886	-$0	0.0%	$1,865 (vs do-nothing $-584)
$237.50	6d	5 Aug 2026	$6.35	4/10	$12,700	$16,300	61%	72%	+$2,794	-$0	0.0%	$1,850 (vs do-nothing $-599)
$237.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$6.90	4/10	$10,350	$13,950	61%	72%	+$2,220	-$0	0.0%	$2,070 (vs do-nothing $-379)
$237.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$7.90	7/10	$11,060	$12,860	60%	72%	+$2,369	-$0	0.0%	$2,486 (vs do-nothing +$37)
$237.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$8.80	9/10	$10,800	$11,400	60%	72%	+$2,362	-$0	0.0%	$3,307 (vs do-nothing +$857)
$235	4d	3 Aug 2026	$6.95	2/10	$10,425	$15,225	57%	70%	+$2,001	-$240	0.6%	$1,770 (vs do-nothing $-680)
$235	6d	5 Aug 2026	$7.40	3/10	$11,100	$15,300	57%	70%	+$2,151	-$224	0.6%	$1,565 (vs do-nothing $-884)
$235	8d	7 Aug 2026	$7.95	4/10	$11,925	$15,525	57%	70%	+$2,272	-$79	0.2%	$1,490 (vs do-nothing $-959)
$235	11d	10 Aug 2026	$8.10	5/10	$11,045	$14,045	57%	70%	+$2,245	-$24	0.1%	$1,326 (vs do-nothing $-1,124)
$235	13d	12 Aug 2026	$7.85	6/10	$10,869	$13,269	57%	70%	+$1,517	-$179	0.5%	$951 (vs do-nothing $-1,499)
$235	15d	14 Aug 2026	$8.95	6/10	$10,740	$13,140	56%	70%	+$2,056	-$0	0.0%	$1,611 (vs do-nothing $-839)
$235	22d	21 Aug 2026	$9.95	8/10	$10,855	$12,055	56%	70%	+$2,213	-$0	0.0%	$2,131 (vs do-nothing $-318)
$232.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$11.05	7/10	$10,548	$12,348	53%	68%	+$1,884	-$0	0.0%	$1,191 (vs do-nothing $-1,258)
$232.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$10.15	5/10	$10,150	$13,150	52%	68%	+$1,767	-$249	0.7%	$1,101 (vs do-nothing $-1,349)
$232.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$9.10	3/10	$10,238	$14,438	52%	68%	+$1,711	-$464	1.2%	$1,325 (vs do-nothing $-1,124)
$232.50	6d	5 Aug 2026	$8.55	3/10	$12,825	$17,025	52%	68%	+$2,151	-$629	1.7%	$1,160 (vs do-nothing $-1,289)
$232.50	4d	3 Aug 2026	$8.20	2/10	$12,300	$17,100	52%	68%	+$2,170	-$490	1.3%	$1,520 (vs do-nothing $-930)
$230	15d	14 Aug 2026	$11.20	5/10	$11,200	$14,200	49%	66%	+$1,550	-$974	2.6%	$376 (vs do-nothing $-2,074)
$230	13d	12 Aug 2026	$9.40	5/10	$10,846	$13,846	48%	66%	+$240	-$1,874	5.0%	$-524 (vs do-nothing $-2,974)
$230	11d	10 Aug 2026	$10.25	4/10	$11,182	$14,782	48%	66%	+$1,513	-$1,159	3.1%	$410 (vs do-nothing $-2,039)
$230	8d	7 Aug 2026	$10.30	3/10	$11,588	$15,788	48%	66%	+$1,626	-$854	2.3%	$935 (vs do-nothing $-1,514)
$230	6d	5 Aug 2026	$9.80	3/10	$14,700	$18,900	48%	66%	+$2,092	-$1,004	2.7%	$785 (vs do-nothing $-1,664)
$230	4d	3 Aug 2026	$9.35	2/10	$14,025	$18,825	47%	66%	+$1,974	-$760	2.0%	$1,250 (vs do-nothing $-1,200)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39