5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $267.92 | CC-SS: $270.08 (banked floor $268.28) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $51,460 | (ND $67.92 + SW $35) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,196/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $792/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,885 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 8d | 5 × $260 | 79% | $3,300 | $711 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $270 | 18 Sep | 8d | 7.6% | 94%hist 96% | 13%hist 13% | -1pp | $215 | $806 | -$2,494 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $270 7.6% OTM over spot $250.88 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.46 mid) = $215 credit for the 8d cycle → $806/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $270) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $270.46) 94% EV / mo +$503 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-147/mo median; plan ~$-100/mo after 68% keep · $-140 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,813 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $274 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.74/sh now → $4.06 mid-life (likely $3.35–$5.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 202 simulated challenges: the $270 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $273 (overshoots $2.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $270 is at/above CC-SS $270.08: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $270.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $267.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,885 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,053 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $270): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $168 (+$10,053 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-769 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$937, the opportunity cost of earning $806/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $267.50 | 18 Sep | 8d | 6.6% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | -1pp | $305 | $1,144 | -$2,156 | $987 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $267.50 6.6% OTM over spot $250.88 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.66 mid) = $305 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,144/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $267.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $268.15) 92% EV / mo +$665 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $129/mo median; plan ~$88/mo after 68% keep · $173 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,705 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $277 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.68/sh now → $4.02 mid-life (likely $3.32–$5.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 328 simulated challenges: the $268 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $270 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $267.50 is $3 below CC-SS $270.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $268.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $268)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $267.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,885 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,053 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $267.50): -$987 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-819 (+$9,066 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-769 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50, the opportunity cost of earning $1,144/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $262.50 | 18 Sep | 8d | 4.6% | 84%hist 86% | 32%hist 31% | +4pp | $610 | $2,288 | -$1,012 | $3,182 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $262.50 4.6% OTM over spot $250.88 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.28 mid) = $610 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,288/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $262.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $263.78) 86% EV / mo +$1,079 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $776/mo median; plan ~$528/mo after 68% keep · $1,244 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,362 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $272 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.58/sh now → $3.94 mid-life (likely $3.76–$6.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $265 (overshoots $2.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $262.50 is $8 below CC-SS $270.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.22 collected) or spot ≥ $263.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $262)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $267.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,885 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,053 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $262.50): -$3,182 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,014 (+$6,871 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-769 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,245, the opportunity cost of earning $2,288/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $260 | 18 Sep | 8d | 3.6% | 79%hist 83% | 43%hist 39% | +4pp | $880 | $3,300 | — | $4,162 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $260 3.6% OTM over spot $250.88 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.79 mid) = $880 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $260) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $261.80) 83% EV / mo +$1,457 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,318/mo median; plan ~$896/mo after 68% keep · $2,118 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,073 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $274 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.52/sh now → $3.91 mid-life (likely $4.12–$6.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 978 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $262 (overshoots $2.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $260 is $10 below CC-SS $270.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.76 collected) or spot ≥ $261.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $260)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $267.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,885 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,053 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $260): -$4,162 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,994 (+$5,891 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-769 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,225, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $252.50 | 18 Sep | 8d | 0.6% | 57%hist 70% | 88%hist 79% | +11pp | $1,700 | $6,375 | +$3,075 | $5,333 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $252.50 0.6% OTM over spot $250.88 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $4.38 mid) = $1,700 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $252.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $256.88) 71% EV / mo +$1,681 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 85% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,168/mo median; plan ~$1,474/mo after 68% keep · $2,633 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-1.9], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$182 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $269 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.37/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $5.15–$7.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,077 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $255 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $252.50 is $18 below CC-SS $270.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.06/sh (~25% of the $4.25 collected) or spot ≥ $256.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $252)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $267.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,885 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,053 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $252.50): -$5,333 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$187 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,353 (+$4,532 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-769 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,584, the opportunity cost of earning $6,375/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.047 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,053 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-769
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $257.50 | 4d | 14 Sep 2026 | $0.85 | 5/5 | $3,188 | $2,395 | 83% | 86% | +$1,713 | -$5,867 | 17.3% | $-5,699 (vs do-nothing $-4,930) |
| $260 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.76 | 5/5 | $3,300 | $2,508 | 79% | 83% | +$1,457 | -$4,162 | 12.3% | $-3,994 (vs do-nothing $-3,225) |
| $257.50 | 6d | 16 Sep 2026 | $1.68 | 4/5 | $3,360 | $2,761 | 76% | 81% | +$1,428 | -$4,361 | 12.8% | $-4,381 (vs do-nothing $-3,612) |
| $255 | 4d | 14 Sep 2026 | $1.43 | 3/5 | $3,218 | $2,813 | 73% | 80% | +$1,395 | -$4,096 | 12.1% | $-4,303 (vs do-nothing $-3,534) |
| $257.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.38 | 4/5 | $3,570 | $2,971 | 72% | 79% | +$1,342 | -$4,081 | 12.0% | $-4,101 (vs do-nothing $-3,332) |
| $257.50 | 11d | 21 Sep 2026 | $2.57 | 5/5 | $3,505 | $2,712 | 71% | 78% | +$1,125 | -$5,007 | 14.7% | $-4,839 (vs do-nothing $-4,070) |
| $257.50 | 13d | 23 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 5/5 | $3,577 | $2,785 | 69% | 76% | +$1,010 | -$4,742 | 14.0% | $-4,574 (vs do-nothing $-3,805) |
| $257.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.85 | 5/5 | $3,850 | $3,058 | 68% | 76% | +$1,212 | -$4,367 | 12.9% | $-4,199 (vs do-nothing $-3,430) |
| $255 | 6d | 16 Sep 2026 | $2.45 | 3/5 | $3,675 | $3,270 | 67% | 76% | +$1,304 | -$3,790 | 11.2% | $-3,997 (vs do-nothing $-3,228) |
| $255 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.25 | 3/5 | $3,656 | $3,251 | 65% | 75% | +$1,195 | -$3,550 | 10.5% | $-3,757 (vs do-nothing $-2,988) |
| $255 | 11d | 21 Sep 2026 | $3.40 | 4/5 | $3,709 | $3,110 | 64% | 74% | +$975 | -$4,673 | 13.8% | $-4,693 (vs do-nothing $-3,924) |
| $255 | 13d | 23 Sep 2026 | $4.00 | 4/5 | $3,692 | $3,094 | 62% | 73% | +$895 | -$4,433 | 13.1% | $-4,453 (vs do-nothing $-3,684) |
| $255 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.85 | 4/5 | $3,880 | $3,281 | 62% | 73% | +$1,101 | -$4,093 | 12.1% | $-4,113 (vs do-nothing $-3,344) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $255 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.20 | 4/5 | $3,382 | $2,783 | 60% | 72% | +$881 | -$3,553 | 10.5% | $-3,573 (vs do-nothing $-2,804) |
| $252.50 | 4d | 14 Sep 2026 | $2.37 | 2/5 | $3,555 | $3,344 | 60% | 73% | +$1,202 | -$3,043 | 9.0% | $-3,437 (vs do-nothing $-2,668) |
| $252.50 | 6d | 16 Sep 2026 | $3.35 | 2/5 | $3,350 | $3,139 | 58% | 71% | +$875 | -$2,847 | 8.4% | $-3,241 (vs do-nothing $-2,472) |
| $252.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.25 | 2/5 | $3,188 | $2,976 | 57% | 71% | +$841 | -$2,667 | 7.9% | $-3,061 (vs do-nothing $-2,292) |
| $252.50 | 11d | 21 Sep 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $3,641 | $3,236 | 56% | 70% | +$819 | -$3,940 | 11.6% | $-4,147 (vs do-nothing $-3,378) |
| $252.50 | 13d | 23 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $3,531 | $3,126 | 56% | 70% | +$735 | -$3,745 | 11.0% | $-3,952 (vs do-nothing $-3,183) |
| $252.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.90 | 3/5 | $3,540 | $3,135 | 55% | 70% | +$842 | -$3,505 | 10.3% | $-3,712 (vs do-nothing $-2,943) |
| $250 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.50 | 3/5 | $3,477 | $3,072 | 50% | 67% | +$672 | -$3,475 | 10.2% | $-3,682 (vs do-nothing $-2,913) |
| $250 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.20 | 3/5 | $4,320 | $3,915 | 49% | 67% | +$891 | -$3,865 | 11.4% | $-4,072 (vs do-nothing $-3,303) |
| $250 | 13d | 23 Sep 2026 | $6.25 | 3/5 | $4,327 | $3,922 | 49% | 67% | +$685 | -$4,150 | 12.2% | $-4,357 (vs do-nothing $-3,588) |
| $250 | 11d | 21 Sep 2026 | $5.80 | 2/5 | $3,164 | $2,952 | 48% | 67% | +$640 | -$2,857 | 8.4% | $-3,251 (vs do-nothing $-2,482) |
| $250 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.55 | 2/5 | $4,162 | $3,951 | 48% | 67% | +$911 | -$2,907 | 8.6% | $-3,301 (vs do-nothing $-2,532) |
| $250 | 6d | 16 Sep 2026 | $4.70 | 2/5 | $4,700 | $4,489 | 47% | 67% | +$1,015 | -$3,077 | 9.1% | $-3,471 (vs do-nothing $-2,702) |
| $250 | 4d | 14 Sep 2026 | $3.60 | 2/5 | $5,400 | $5,189 | 45% | 67% | +$1,242 | -$3,297 | 9.7% | $-3,691 (vs do-nothing $-2,922) |
| $247.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.65 | 2/5 | $3,460 | $3,249 | 43% | 65% | +$607 | -$2,787 | 8.2% | $-3,181 (vs do-nothing $-2,412) |
| $247.50 | 13d | 23 Sep 2026 | $7.60 | 2/5 | $3,508 | $3,296 | 42% | 64% | +$416 | -$2,997 | 8.8% | $-3,391 (vs do-nothing $-2,622) |
| $247.50 | 11d | 21 Sep 2026 | $7.00 | 2/5 | $3,818 | $3,607 | 41% | 63% | +$385 | -$3,117 | 9.2% | $-3,511 (vs do-nothing $-2,742) |
| $247.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.05 | 2/5 | $5,288 | $5,076 | 39% | 64% | +$928 | -$3,107 | 9.1% | $-3,501 (vs do-nothing $-2,732) |
| $247.50 | 6d | 16 Sep 2026 | $6.25 | 1/5 | $3,125 | $3,107 | 37% | 63% | +$517 | -$1,633 | 4.8% | $-2,215 (vs do-nothing $-1,446) |
| $247.50 | 4d | 14 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 1/5 | $3,975 | $3,957 | 32% | 62% | +$659 | -$1,728 | 5.1% | $-2,310 (vs do-nothing $-1,541) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.