FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $255.84

BE SS: $267.92 | CC-SS: $270.27 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

AMZN @ $255.84 UNDERWATER $12.08 (4.5% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $267.92 | CC-SS: $270.27 (banked floor $268.47) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $200 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $94.731/sh)

SP: $250 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.636/sh)

HP: $215 exp 2026-11-20 (entry $2.831/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$51,460	(ND $67.92 + SW $35) x 500
Normal income ref	$5,957/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$639/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-7,468	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,979/mo

HEDGE COVER
$639/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,957/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.7 mo to earn back $33,960

ML VELOCITY
8.6 mo to earn back $51,460

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $270.27 (probe: $270C 14d) still earns $1,532/mo (26% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-08-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-08-13

$980

Hole (after banked)

$6,488

was $7,468 · 13% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$270.27 → $268.47

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 50 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 32 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $282.74 (+11%) · daily UBB $266.06 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $270.27 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $275 9 Oct 2026 (28d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $275)

84%

Touch odds

33%

Per cycle

$1,205

Income / mo

$1,291

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $272.50 23 Sep 2026 (12d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $272.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$355

Income / mo

$888

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$277	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.34/sh	+$672 cycle +$1,027 [+$503…+$1,019] · 99% credit	73% surv 61%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$272	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.17/sh	+$85 cycle +$440 [+$74…+$307] · 92% credit	67% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$282	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.48/sh	-$242 cycle +$113 [-$540…+$29] · 27% credit	79% surv 72%
budget: banked $355 debit $242 (68% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$113 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,514/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $315 25 Sep 2026 (14d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $315)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$10

Income / mo

$21

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$315	2 Oct 2026	14d left	-$0.38/sh	-$191 cycle -$181	68% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$314	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.05/sh	+$23 cycle +$33	66% surv 48%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.070 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,721 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-652

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$262.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$1.66	5/5	$3,557	$2,919	75%	80%	+$1,228	-$3,056	9.0%	$-2,802 (vs do-nothing $-2,150)
$262.50	12d	23 Sep 2026	$2.54	5/5	$3,175	$2,536	71%	77%	+$922	-$2,616	7.7%	$-2,362 (vs do-nothing $-1,710)
$260	5d	16 Sep 2026	$1.60	4/5	$3,840	$3,489	70%	77%	+$1,163	-$3,469	10.2%	$-3,396 (vs do-nothing $-2,744)
$262.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$3.15	5/5	$3,375	$2,736	69%	77%	+$1,130	-$2,311	6.8%	$-2,057 (vs do-nothing $-1,405)
$260	7d	18 Sep 2026	$2.40	3/5	$3,086	$3,023	67%	75%	+$853	-$2,362	7.0%	$-2,470 (vs do-nothing $-1,818)
$260	10d	21 Sep 2026	$2.74	4/5	$3,288	$2,937	65%	74%	+$742	-$3,013	8.9%	$-2,940 (vs do-nothing $-2,288)
$260	12d	23 Sep 2026	$3.35	4/5	$3,350	$2,999	64%	73%	+$792	-$2,769	8.2%	$-2,696 (vs do-nothing $-2,044)
$260	14d	25 Sep 2026	$4.05	4/5	$3,471	$3,121	63%	73%	+$1,001	-$2,489	7.3%	$-2,416 (vs do-nothing $-1,764)
$260	21d	2 Oct 2026	$5.50	4/5	$3,143	$2,792	61%	73%	+$927	-$1,909	5.6%	$-1,836 (vs do-nothing $-1,184)
$260	28d	9 Oct 2026	$6.80	5/5	$3,643	$3,004	60%	73%	+$1,108	-$1,736	5.1%	$-1,482 (vs do-nothing $-830)
$257.50	5d	16 Sep 2026	$2.45	3/5	$4,410	$4,347	59%	71%	+$928	-$3,097	9.1%	$-3,205 (vs do-nothing $-2,553)
$257.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$3.35	3/5	$4,307	$4,245	57%	70%	+$904	-$2,827	8.3%	$-2,935 (vs do-nothing $-2,283)
$257.50	10d	21 Sep 2026	$3.70	3/5	$3,330	$3,267	57%	69%	+$570	-$2,722	8.0%	$-2,830 (vs do-nothing $-2,178)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$257.50	12d	23 Sep 2026	$4.40	3/5	$3,300	$3,237	56%	70%	+$654	-$2,512	7.4%	$-2,620 (vs do-nothing $-1,968)
$257.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$5.10	3/5	$3,279	$3,216	56%	70%	+$794	-$2,302	6.8%	$-2,410 (vs do-nothing $-1,758)
$255	28d	9 Oct 2026	$9.25	4/5	$3,964	$3,614	50%	68%	+$978	-$2,409	7.1%	$-2,336 (vs do-nothing $-1,684)
$255	21d	2 Oct 2026	$7.85	3/5	$3,364	$3,302	49%	67%	+$753	-$2,227	6.6%	$-2,335 (vs do-nothing $-1,683)
$255	14d	25 Sep 2026	$6.40	3/5	$4,114	$4,052	49%	67%	+$864	-$2,662	7.8%	$-2,770 (vs do-nothing $-2,118)
$255	12d	23 Sep 2026	$5.60	3/5	$4,200	$4,137	48%	66%	+$643	-$2,902	8.5%	$-3,010 (vs do-nothing $-2,358)
$255	10d	21 Sep 2026	$4.90	3/5	$4,410	$4,347	48%	65%	+$560	-$3,112	9.2%	$-3,220 (vs do-nothing $-2,568)
$255	7d	18 Sep 2026	$4.60	2/5	$3,943	$4,168	47%	65%	+$646	-$2,134	6.3%	$-2,424 (vs do-nothing $-1,772)
$255	5d	16 Sep 2026	$3.60	2/5	$4,320	$4,545	46%	65%	+$566	-$2,334	6.9%	$-2,624 (vs do-nothing $-1,972)
$252.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$7.70	2/5	$3,300	$3,525	41%	64%	+$530	-$2,014	5.9%	$-2,304 (vs do-nothing $-1,652)
$252.50	12d	23 Sep 2026	$7.00	2/5	$3,500	$3,725	41%	64%	+$399	-$2,154	6.3%	$-2,444 (vs do-nothing $-1,792)
$252.50	10d	21 Sep 2026	$5.90	2/5	$3,540	$3,765	39%	61%	+$85	-$2,374	7.0%	$-2,664 (vs do-nothing $-2,012)
$252.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$6.05	2/5	$5,186	$5,411	38%	62%	+$606	-$2,344	6.9%	$-2,634 (vs do-nothing $-1,982)
$252.50	5d	16 Sep 2026	$5.05	1/5	$3,030	$3,543	34%	60%	+$207	-$1,272	3.7%	$-1,743 (vs do-nothing $-1,091)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-11 22:01