5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $267.92 | CC-SS: $270.43 (banked floor $268.63) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $51,460 | (ND $67.92 + SW $35) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,464/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $739/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,202 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 4d | 4 × $262.50 | 81% | $2,790 | $884 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 11d | 5 × $262.50 | 72% | $3,136 | $-304 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $270 | 18 Sep | 4d | 6.1% | 94%hist 96% | 12%hist 14% | -4pp | $100 | $750 | -$2,040 | $74 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $270 6.1% OTM over spot $254.56 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.26 mid) = $100 credit for the 4d cycle → $750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $270) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $270.26) 94% EV / mo +$393 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -4pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $224/mo median; plan ~$153/mo after 68% keep · $278 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$951 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $280 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.72/sh now → $2.63 mid-life (likely $2.08–$4.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 166 simulated challenges: the $270 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $273 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $270 is $0 below CC-SS $270.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $270.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,429 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $270): -$74 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$167 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14 (+$8,188 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-610 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$596, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $267.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 5.1% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | -3pp | $190 | $1,425 | -$1,365 | $1,277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $267.50 5.1% OTM over spot $254.56 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.40 mid) = $190 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,425/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $267.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $267.90) 92% EV / mo +$615 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 85% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $423/mo median; plan ~$288/mo after 68% keep · $396 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.4], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,112 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $283 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.68/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $2.15–$4.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 309 simulated challenges: the $268 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $270 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $267.50 is $3 below CC-SS $270.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $267.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $268)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,429 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $267.50): -$1,277 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,050 (+$7,152 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-610 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-440, the opportunity cost of earning $1,425/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $265 | 18 Sep | 4d | 4.1% | 87%hist 86% | 27%hist 26% | -0pp | $252 | $1,890 | -$900 | $1,922 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $265 4.1% OTM over spot $254.56 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.64 mid) = $252 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,890/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $265) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $265.64) 88% EV / mo +$725 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 86% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,105/mo median; plan ~$751/mo after 68% keep · $837 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.2-1.5], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$780 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $280 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.65/sh now → $2.58 mid-life (likely $2.40–$4.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 475 simulated challenges: the $265 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $268 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $265 is $5 below CC-SS $270.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $265.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $265)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,429 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $265): -$1,922 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$167 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,862 (+$6,340 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-610 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,252, the opportunity cost of earning $1,890/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $262.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 3.1% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | +1pp | $372 | $2,790 | — | $2,802 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $262.50 3.1% OTM over spot $254.56 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.97 mid) = $372 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,790/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $262.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $263.47) 83% EV / mo +$747 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 88% whole by 9mo vs 87% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,561/mo median; plan ~$1,062/mo after 68% keep · $1,194 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.2-1.5], measured ONLY among the 88% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$650 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $278 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.56 mid-life (likely $2.66–$4.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 791 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $265 (overshoots $2.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $262.50 is $8 below CC-SS $270.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.93 collected) or spot ≥ $263.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $262)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,429 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $262.50): -$2,802 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$167 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,742 (+$5,460 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-610 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,132, the opportunity cost of earning $2,790/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $257.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 1.2% | 63%hist 65% | 74%hist 67% | +5pp | $852 | $6,390 | +$3,600 | $4,322 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $257.50 1.2% OTM over spot $254.56 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $2.19 mid) = $852 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,390/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $257.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $259.69) 72% EV / mo +$788 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 89% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,814/mo median; plan ~$1,913/mo after 68% keep · $1,624 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.2-1.4], measured ONLY among the 89% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 54% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$151 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $283 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.55/sh now → $2.51 mid-life (likely $3.19–$5.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,615 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $260 (overshoots $2.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $257.50 is $13 below CC-SS $270.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.13 collected) or spot ≥ $259.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,429 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $257.50): -$4,322 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$167 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,262 (+$3,940 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-610 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,652, the opportunity cost of earning $6,390/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $272.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 7.0% | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 26% | -4pp | $335 | $914 | -$2,223 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $272.50 7.0% OTM over spot $254.56 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.71 mid) = $335 credit for the 11d cycle → $914/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $272.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $273.21) 91% EV / mo +$375 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -4pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 82% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-81/mo median; plan ~$-55/mo after 68% keep · $-108 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-2.4], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,712 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $278 @ 72% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.79/sh now → $4.09 mid-life (likely $3.31–$5.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 457 simulated challenges: the $272 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $275 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $272.50 is at/above CC-SS $270.43: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $273.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $272)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,429 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $272.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $227 (+$8,429 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-610 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$837, the opportunity cost of earning $914/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $265 | 25 Sep | 11d | 4.1% | 78%hist 84% | 45%hist 39% | -1pp | $688 | $1,876 | -$1,260 | $1,486 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $265 4.1% OTM over spot $254.56 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.77 mid) = $688 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,876/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $265) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $266.77) 81% EV / mo +$512 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 87% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,259/mo median; plan ~$856/mo after 68% keep · $1,132 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$905 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $275 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.63/sh now → $3.98 mid-life (likely $4.27–$6.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,090 simulated challenges: the $265 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $267 (overshoots $2.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $265 is $5 below CC-SS $270.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $266.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $265)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,429 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $265): -$1,486 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$167 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,426 (+$6,776 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-610 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-816, the opportunity cost of earning $1,876/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $262.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 3.1% | 72%hist 84% | 56%hist 44% | +0pp | $1,150 | $3,136 | — | $2,817 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $262.50 3.1% OTM over spot $254.56 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $2.39 mid) = $1,150 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,136/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $262.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $264.89) 78% EV / mo +$714 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 85% whole by 9mo vs 85% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,915/mo median; plan ~$1,302/mo after 68% keep · $1,732 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$822 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $278 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.58/sh now → $3.94 mid-life (likely $4.39–$6.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,372 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $265 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $262.50 is $8 below CC-SS $270.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.30 collected) or spot ≥ $264.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $262)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,429 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $262.50): -$2,817 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,590 (+$5,612 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-610 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,980, the opportunity cost of earning $3,136/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $255 | 25 Sep | 11d | 0.2% | 52%hist 70% | 97%hist 90% | +4pp | $2,450 | $6,682 | +$3,545 | $5,267 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $255 0.2% OTM over spot $254.56 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $5.05 mid) = $2,450 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $255) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $260.05) 66% EV / mo +$616 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 87% whole by 9mo vs 83% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,112/mo median; plan ~$2,796/mo after 68% keep · $2,327 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-1.3], measured ONLY among the 87% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 82% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$534 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $273 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.42/sh now → $3.83 mid-life (likely $5.38–$7.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,452 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $258 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $255 is $15 below CC-SS $270.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.23/sh (~25% of the $4.90 collected) or spot ≥ $260.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,429 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $255): -$5,267 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,040 (+$3,162 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-610 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,430, the opportunity cost of earning $6,682/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.062 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,429 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-610
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $262.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.93 | 4/5 | $2,790 | $2,395 | 81% | 83% | +$747 | -$2,802 | 8.3% | $-2,742 (vs do-nothing $-2,132) |
| $262.50 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $1.68 | 5/5 | $2,800 | $2,061 | 75% | 80% | +$611 | -$3,127 | 9.2% | $-2,900 (vs do-nothing $-2,290) |
| $260 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.42 | 3/5 | $3,195 | $3,143 | 73% | 78% | +$602 | -$2,704 | 8.0% | $-2,812 (vs do-nothing $-2,202) |
| $262.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.30 | 5/5 | $3,136 | $2,398 | 72% | 78% | +$714 | -$2,817 | 8.3% | $-2,590 (vs do-nothing $-1,980) |
| $260 | 7d | 21 Sep 2026 | $1.64 | 4/5 | $2,811 | $2,416 | 70% | 76% | +$255 | -$3,518 | 10.4% | $-3,458 (vs do-nothing $-2,848) |
| $262.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 5/5 | $3,000 | $2,261 | 69% | 76% | +$678 | -$2,167 | 6.4% | $-1,940 (vs do-nothing $-1,330) |
| $260 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $2.41 | 4/5 | $3,213 | $2,818 | 68% | 75% | +$624 | -$3,210 | 9.5% | $-3,150 (vs do-nothing $-2,540) |
| $260 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.05 | 4/5 | $3,327 | $2,932 | 66% | 74% | +$634 | -$2,954 | 8.7% | $-2,894 (vs do-nothing $-2,284) |
| $260 | 14d | 28 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 5/5 | $3,214 | $2,475 | 65% | 73% | +$82 | -$3,717 | 10.9% | $-3,490 (vs do-nothing $-2,880) |
| $260 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.40 | 4/5 | $2,933 | $2,538 | 64% | 73% | +$546 | -$2,414 | 7.1% | $-2,354 (vs do-nothing $-1,744) |
| $257.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.13 | 2/5 | $3,195 | $3,487 | 63% | 72% | +$394 | -$2,161 | 6.4% | $-2,436 (vs do-nothing $-1,826) |
| $260 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.65 | 5/5 | $3,390 | $2,651 | 62% | 72% | +$636 | -$2,392 | 7.0% | $-2,165 (vs do-nothing $-1,555) |
| $257.50 | 7d | 21 Sep 2026 | $2.49 | 3/5 | $3,201 | $3,150 | 62% | 71% | +$277 | -$3,133 | 9.2% | $-3,241 (vs do-nothing $-2,631) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $257.50 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 3/5 | $3,150 | $3,098 | 61% | 71% | +$362 | -$2,935 | 8.6% | $-3,043 (vs do-nothing $-2,433) |
| $257.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.85 | 3/5 | $3,150 | $3,098 | 59% | 70% | +$407 | -$2,725 | 8.0% | $-2,833 (vs do-nothing $-2,223) |
| $257.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.40 | 4/5 | $3,600 | $3,205 | 58% | 70% | +$575 | -$3,014 | 8.9% | $-2,954 (vs do-nothing $-2,344) |
| $255 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.05 | 2/5 | $4,575 | $4,867 | 53% | 66% | +$252 | -$2,477 | 7.3% | $-2,752 (vs do-nothing $-2,142) |
| $255 | 7d | 21 Sep 2026 | $3.45 | 2/5 | $2,957 | $3,249 | 52% | 66% | +$103 | -$2,397 | 7.1% | $-2,672 (vs do-nothing $-2,062) |
| $255 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.85 | 3/5 | $2,826 | $2,774 | 52% | 67% | +$405 | -$2,275 | 6.7% | $-2,383 (vs do-nothing $-1,773) |
| $255 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $4.10 | 2/5 | $2,733 | $3,025 | 52% | 66% | +$148 | -$2,267 | 6.7% | $-2,542 (vs do-nothing $-1,932) |
| $255 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $3,250 | $3,198 | 52% | 67% | +$417 | -$2,680 | 7.9% | $-2,788 (vs do-nothing $-2,178) |
| $255 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.90 | 3/5 | $4,009 | $3,958 | 52% | 66% | +$370 | -$3,160 | 9.3% | $-3,268 (vs do-nothing $-2,658) |
| $255 | 14d | 28 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $3,279 | $3,227 | 52% | 67% | +$87 | -$3,100 | 9.1% | $-3,208 (vs do-nothing $-2,598) |
| $252.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.70 | 3/5 | $3,850 | $3,798 | 47% | 64% | +$364 | -$3,070 | 9.0% | $-3,178 (vs do-nothing $-2,568) |
| $252.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.20 | 2/5 | $3,382 | $3,674 | 45% | 63% | +$237 | -$2,347 | 6.9% | $-2,622 (vs do-nothing $-2,012) |
| $252.50 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 2/5 | $3,600 | $3,892 | 44% | 62% | +$119 | -$2,507 | 7.4% | $-2,782 (vs do-nothing $-2,172) |
| $252.50 | 7d | 21 Sep 2026 | $4.70 | 2/5 | $4,029 | $4,321 | 43% | 62% | +$20 | -$2,647 | 7.8% | $-2,922 (vs do-nothing $-2,312) |
| $250 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $10.50 | 3/5 | $3,780 | $3,728 | 43% | 63% | +$376 | -$2,980 | 8.8% | $-3,088 (vs do-nothing $-2,478) |
| $252.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.25 | 1/5 | $3,188 | $3,823 | 42% | 61% | +$16 | -$1,368 | 4.0% | $-1,811 (vs do-nothing $-1,201) |
| $250 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.20 | 2/5 | $3,067 | $3,359 | 41% | 62% | +$249 | -$2,247 | 6.6% | $-2,522 (vs do-nothing $-1,912) |
| $250 | 14d | 28 Sep 2026 | $7.65 | 2/5 | $3,279 | $3,571 | 40% | 62% | $-67 | -$2,557 | 7.5% | $-2,832 (vs do-nothing $-2,222) |
| $250 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.60 | 2/5 | $4,145 | $4,438 | 38% | 60% | +$162 | -$2,567 | 7.6% | $-2,842 (vs do-nothing $-2,232) |
| $250 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $6.65 | 2/5 | $4,433 | $4,725 | 36% | 60% | $-107 | -$2,757 | 8.1% | $-3,032 (vs do-nothing $-2,422) |
| $250 | 7d | 21 Sep 2026 | $6.00 | 2/5 | $5,143 | $5,435 | 34% | 58% | $-261 | -$2,887 | 8.5% | $-3,162 (vs do-nothing $-2,552) |
| $250 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.80 | 1/5 | $4,350 | $4,986 | 32% | 57% | $-73 | -$1,463 | 4.3% | $-1,906 (vs do-nothing $-1,296) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.