5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $267.92 | CC-SS: $270.26 (banked floor $268.46) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $51,460 | (ND $67.92 + SW $35) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,654/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $761/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,935 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 4 × $260 | 81% | $3,600 | $1,212 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 4 × $260 | 72% | $2,844 | $634 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $267.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 5.7% | 96%hist 96% | 9%hist 3% | -1pp | $95 | $950 | -$2,650 | $1,284 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $267.50 5.7% OTM over spot $253.00 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.20 mid) = $95 credit for the 3d cycle → $950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $267.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $267.69) 96% EV / mo +$624 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 82% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $62/mo median; plan ~$42/mo after 68% keep · $44 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,132 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $280 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.47/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $2.30–$4.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 110 simulated challenges: the $268 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $270 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $267.50 is $3 below CC-SS $270.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $267.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $268)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,130 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $267.50): -$1,284 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,090 (+$7,845 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-730 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-360, the opportunity cost of earning $950/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $265 | 18 Sep | 3d | 4.7% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 14% | -0pp | $160 | $1,600 | -$2,000 | $2,469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $265 4.7% OTM over spot $253.00 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.33 mid) = $160 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $265) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $265.33) 93% EV / mo +$917 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 86% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $539/mo median; plan ~$367/mo after 68% keep · $669 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-2.4], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,055 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $277 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.44/sh now → $2.43 mid-life (likely $2.08–$4.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 221 simulated challenges: the $265 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $267 (overshoots $2.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $265 is $5 below CC-SS $270.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $265.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $265)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,130 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $265): -$2,469 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,275 (+$6,660 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-730 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,545, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $262.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 3.8% | 88%hist 86% | 24%hist 26% | +1pp | $212 | $2,120 | -$1,480 | $2,891 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $262.50 3.8% OTM over spot $253.00 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.55 mid) = $212 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $262.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $263.06) 89% EV / mo +$1,005 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 82% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,043/mo median; plan ~$709/mo after 68% keep · $1,015 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$751 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $280 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.41/sh now → $2.41 mid-life (likely $2.33–$4.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 385 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $265 (overshoots $2.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $262.50 is $8 below CC-SS $270.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $263.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $262)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,130 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $262.50): -$2,891 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$185 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,882 (+$6,053 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-730 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,152, the opportunity cost of earning $2,120/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $260 | 18 Sep | 3d | 2.8% | 81%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | +4pp | $360 | $3,600 | — | $3,743 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $260 2.8% OTM over spot $253.00 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.93 mid) = $360 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $260) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $260.93) 84% EV / mo +$1,421 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 82% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,742/mo median; plan ~$1,185/mo after 68% keep · $1,728 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.8], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$594 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $277 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.37/sh now → $2.38 mid-life (likely $2.49–$4.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 715 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $262 (overshoots $2.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $260 is $10 below CC-SS $270.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $260.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $260)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,130 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $260): -$3,743 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$185 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,734 (+$5,201 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-730 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,004, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $257.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 1.8% | 72%hist 84% | 56%hist 44% | +5pp | $580 | $5,800 | +$2,200 | $4,523 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $257.50 1.8% OTM over spot $253.00 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $1.50 mid) = $580 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $257.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $259.00) 78% EV / mo +$1,749 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 88% whole by 9mo vs 83% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,417/mo median; plan ~$1,643/mo after 68% keep · $2,029 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 88% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$365 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $277 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.34/sh now → $2.36 mid-life (likely $2.77–$4.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,089 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $260 (overshoots $2.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $257.50 is $13 below CC-SS $270.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $259.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,130 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $257.50): -$4,523 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$185 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,514 (+$4,421 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-730 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,784, the opportunity cost of earning $5,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $270 | 25 Sep | 10d | 6.7% | 90%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | -3pp | $264 | $792 | -$2,052 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $270 6.7% OTM over spot $253.00 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.69 mid) = $264 credit for the 10d cycle → $792/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $270) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $270.69) 91% EV / mo +$398 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $145/mo median; plan ~$99/mo after 68% keep · $242 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.3-2.2], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,348 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $277 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.70/sh now → $4.03 mid-life (likely $3.40–$5.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 427 simulated challenges: the $270 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $273 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $270 is at/above CC-SS $270.26: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $270.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,130 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $270): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$185 Total Position P&L @ SS: $10 (+$8,945 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-730 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$739, the opportunity cost of earning $792/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $270 | 25 Sep | 10d | 6.7% | 90%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | -4pp | $330 | $990 | -$1,854 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $270 6.7% OTM over spot $253.00 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.69 mid) = $330 credit for the 10d cycle → $990/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $270) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $270.69) 91% EV / mo +$497 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -4pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13/mo median; plan ~$9/mo after 68% keep · $25 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-2.3], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,685 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $277 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.70/sh now → $4.03 mid-life (likely $3.47–$5.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 414 simulated challenges: the $270 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $272 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $270 is at/above CC-SS $270.26: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $270.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,130 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $270): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $195 (+$9,130 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-730 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$924, the opportunity cost of earning $990/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $265 | 25 Sep | 10d | 4.7% | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 30% | +0pp | $635 | $1,905 | -$939 | $1,994 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $265 4.7% OTM over spot $253.00 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.31 mid) = $635 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,905/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $265) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $266.31) 85% EV / mo +$745 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 83% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $781/mo median; plan ~$531/mo after 68% keep · $821 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,342 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $272 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.59/sh now → $3.95 mid-life (likely $3.80–$5.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 825 simulated challenges: the $265 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $267 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $265 is $5 below CC-SS $270.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.27 collected) or spot ≥ $266.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $265)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,130 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $265): -$1,994 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,800 (+$7,135 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-730 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,070, the opportunity cost of earning $1,905/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $260 | 25 Sep | 10d | 2.8% | 72%hist 84% | 58%hist 44% | +3pp | $948 | $2,844 | — | $3,155 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $260 2.8% OTM over spot $253.00 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.42 mid) = $948 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,844/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $260) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $262.43) 78% EV / mo +$800 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,359/mo median; plan ~$924/mo after 68% keep · $1,845 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$604 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $277 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.49/sh now → $3.88 mid-life (likely $4.44–$6.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,370 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $262 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $260 is $10 below CC-SS $270.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.37 collected) or spot ≥ $262.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $260)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,130 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $260): -$3,155 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$185 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,146 (+$5,789 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-730 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,416, the opportunity cost of earning $2,844/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $255 | 25 Sep | 10d | 0.8% | 57%hist 70% | 87%hist 79% | +6pp | $2,050 | $6,150 | +$3,306 | $5,579 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $255 0.8% OTM over spot $253.00 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $4.22 mid) = $2,050 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $255) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $259.23) 70% EV / mo +$1,065 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 85% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,677/mo median; plan ~$1,820/mo after 68% keep · $1,974 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.8], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$147 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $277 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.38/sh now → $3.81 mid-life (likely $5.14–$6.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,137 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $258 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $255 is $15 below CC-SS $270.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $259.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $265.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,130 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $255): -$5,579 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,385 (+$3,550 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-730 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,655, the opportunity cost of earning $6,150/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.058 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,130 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-730
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $260 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.90 | 4/5 | $3,600 | $3,112 | 81% | 84% | +$1,421 | -$3,743 | 11.0% | $-3,734 (vs do-nothing $-3,004) |
| $260 | 6d | 21 Sep 2026 | $1.20 | 5/5 | $3,000 | $2,239 | 78% | 82% | +$921 | -$4,529 | 13.3% | $-4,335 (vs do-nothing $-3,605) |
| $260 | 8d | 23 Sep 2026 | $1.76 | 5/5 | $3,300 | $2,539 | 74% | 79% | +$836 | -$4,249 | 12.5% | $-4,055 (vs do-nothing $-3,325) |
| $257.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.45 | 2/5 | $2,900 | $2,958 | 72% | 78% | +$874 | -$2,262 | 6.7% | $-2,622 (vs do-nothing $-1,892) |
| $260 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.37 | 4/5 | $2,844 | $2,356 | 72% | 78% | +$800 | -$3,155 | 9.3% | $-3,146 (vs do-nothing $-2,416) |
| $257.50 | 6d | 21 Sep 2026 | $1.82 | 4/5 | $3,640 | $3,152 | 69% | 76% | +$843 | -$4,375 | 12.9% | $-4,366 (vs do-nothing $-3,636) |
| $260 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 5/5 | $3,353 | $2,592 | 67% | 75% | +$867 | -$3,229 | 9.5% | $-3,035 (vs do-nothing $-2,305) |
| $257.50 | 8d | 23 Sep 2026 | $2.48 | 4/5 | $3,720 | $3,232 | 66% | 74% | +$745 | -$4,111 | 12.1% | $-4,102 (vs do-nothing $-3,372) |
| $260 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.00 | 5/5 | $3,125 | $2,364 | 65% | 74% | +$764 | -$2,629 | 7.7% | $-2,435 (vs do-nothing $-1,705) |
| $257.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 3/5 | $2,835 | $2,620 | 65% | 74% | +$642 | -$2,882 | 8.5% | $-3,058 (vs do-nothing $-2,328) |
| $257.50 | 13d | 28 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 4/5 | $3,046 | $2,558 | 64% | 73% | +$407 | -$3,783 | 11.1% | $-3,774 (vs do-nothing $-3,044) |
| $257.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.65 | 4/5 | $3,282 | $2,794 | 62% | 72% | +$704 | -$3,243 | 9.6% | $-3,234 (vs do-nothing $-2,504) |
| $255 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.29 | 2/5 | $4,580 | $4,638 | 61% | 71% | +$1,039 | -$2,594 | 7.6% | $-2,954 (vs do-nothing $-2,224) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $255 | 6d | 21 Sep 2026 | $2.72 | 3/5 | $4,080 | $3,865 | 59% | 70% | +$723 | -$3,761 | 11.1% | $-3,937 (vs do-nothing $-3,207) |
| $255 | 8d | 23 Sep 2026 | $3.45 | 3/5 | $3,881 | $3,666 | 58% | 70% | +$630 | -$3,542 | 10.4% | $-3,718 (vs do-nothing $-2,988) |
| $255 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.10 | 3/5 | $3,690 | $3,475 | 57% | 70% | +$639 | -$3,347 | 9.9% | $-3,523 (vs do-nothing $-2,793) |
| $255 | 13d | 28 Sep 2026 | $4.25 | 3/5 | $2,942 | $2,727 | 57% | 69% | +$277 | -$3,302 | 9.7% | $-3,478 (vs do-nothing $-2,748) |
| $255 | 15d | 30 Sep 2026 | $4.30 | 4/5 | $3,440 | $2,952 | 57% | 70% | +$343 | -$4,383 | 12.9% | $-4,374 (vs do-nothing $-3,644) |
| $255 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.70 | 3/5 | $3,018 | $2,802 | 56% | 69% | +$549 | -$2,867 | 8.4% | $-3,043 (vs do-nothing $-2,313) |
| $255 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.05 | 4/5 | $3,525 | $3,037 | 56% | 69% | +$681 | -$3,283 | 9.7% | $-3,274 (vs do-nothing $-2,544) |
| $252.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.90 | 3/5 | $3,653 | $3,438 | 50% | 66% | +$552 | -$3,257 | 9.6% | $-3,433 (vs do-nothing $-2,703) |
| $252.50 | 13d | 28 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 3/5 | $3,738 | $3,523 | 50% | 66% | +$236 | -$3,707 | 10.9% | $-3,883 (vs do-nothing $-3,153) |
| $252.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 2/5 | $3,180 | $3,238 | 49% | 66% | +$433 | -$2,492 | 7.3% | $-2,852 (vs do-nothing $-2,122) |
| $252.50 | 8d | 23 Sep 2026 | $4.65 | 2/5 | $3,488 | $3,545 | 49% | 66% | +$443 | -$2,622 | 7.7% | $-2,982 (vs do-nothing $-2,252) |
| $252.50 | 6d | 21 Sep 2026 | $3.75 | 2/5 | $3,750 | $3,808 | 49% | 65% | +$352 | -$2,802 | 8.2% | $-3,162 (vs do-nothing $-2,432) |
| $252.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 1/5 | $3,300 | $3,631 | 48% | 65% | +$408 | -$1,446 | 4.3% | $-1,991 (vs do-nothing $-1,261) |
| $250 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.55 | 3/5 | $3,581 | $3,366 | 45% | 65% | +$513 | -$3,212 | 9.5% | $-3,388 (vs do-nothing $-2,658) |
| $250 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.20 | 2/5 | $2,894 | $2,952 | 44% | 64% | +$339 | -$2,412 | 7.1% | $-2,772 (vs do-nothing $-2,042) |
| $250 | 15d | 30 Sep 2026 | $6.15 | 3/5 | $3,690 | $3,475 | 43% | 62% | $-411 | -$4,232 | 12.5% | $-4,408 (vs do-nothing $-3,678) |
| $250 | 13d | 28 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 3/5 | $3,946 | $3,731 | 43% | 62% | $-544 | -$4,367 | 12.9% | $-4,543 (vs do-nothing $-3,813) |
| $250 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.65 | 2/5 | $3,990 | $4,048 | 42% | 63% | +$386 | -$2,722 | 8.0% | $-3,082 (vs do-nothing $-2,352) |
| $250 | 8d | 23 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 2/5 | $4,275 | $4,333 | 40% | 62% | +$150 | -$2,912 | 8.6% | $-3,272 (vs do-nothing $-2,542) |
| $250 | 6d | 21 Sep 2026 | $5.25 | 2/5 | $5,250 | $5,308 | 38% | 61% | +$361 | -$3,002 | 8.8% | $-3,362 (vs do-nothing $-2,632) |
| $250 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.65 | 1/5 | $4,650 | $4,981 | 36% | 60% | +$243 | -$1,561 | 4.6% | $-2,106 (vs do-nothing $-1,376) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.