5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $267.92 | CC-SS: $270.37 (banked floor $268.58) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $51,460 | (ND $67.92 + SW $35) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,268/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $923/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-11,910 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 4 × $255 | 87% | $3,240 | $2,777 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 5 × $255 | 74% | $3,500 | $676 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $260 | 18 Sep | 2d | 5.1% | 96%hist 96% | 8%hist 3% | +2pp | $72 | $1,080 | -$2,160 | $4,077 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $260 5.1% OTM over spot $247.34 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.19 mid) = $72 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $260) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $260.19) 96% EV / mo +$771 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $44/mo median; plan ~$30/mo after 68% keep · $57 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.4], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$814 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $273 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.13/sh now → $2.21 mid-life (likely $1.96–$3.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 99 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $262 (overshoots $2.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $260 is $10 below CC-SS $270.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $260.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $260)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $266.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,910 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,965 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $260): -$4,077 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$256 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,278 (+$7,632 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,226 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,052, the opportunity cost of earning $1,080/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $257.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 4.1% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 14% | +6pp | $140 | $2,100 | -$1,140 | $6,296 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $257.50 4.1% OTM over spot $247.34 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.32 mid) = $140 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $257.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $257.81) 93% EV / mo +$1,273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $640/mo median; plan ~$436/mo after 68% keep · $1,058 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$957 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $275 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $2.11–$4.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 189 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $260 (overshoots $2.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $257.50 is $13 below CC-SS $270.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $257.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $266.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,910 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,965 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $257.50): -$6,296 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,241 (+$5,669 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,226 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,015, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $257.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 4.1% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 14% | +6pp | $140 | $2,100 | -$1,140 | $6,296 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $257.50 4.1% OTM over spot $247.34 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.32 mid) = $140 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $257.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $257.81) 93% EV / mo +$1,273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $640/mo median; plan ~$436/mo after 68% keep · $1,058 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$957 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $275 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $2.11–$4.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 189 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $260 (overshoots $2.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $257.50 is $13 below CC-SS $270.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $257.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $266.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,910 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,965 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $257.50): -$6,296 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,241 (+$5,669 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,226 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,015, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $255 | 18 Sep | 2d | 3.1% | 87%hist 86% | 26%hist 26% | +8pp | $216 | $3,240 | — | $5,933 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $255 3.1% OTM over spot $247.34 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.57 mid) = $216 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,240/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $255) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $255.57) 89% EV / mo +$1,738 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,279/mo median; plan ~$870/mo after 68% keep · $1,770 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$653 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $273 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.07/sh now → $2.17 mid-life (likely $2.34–$4.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 429 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $258 (overshoots $2.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $255 is $15 below CC-SS $270.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $255.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $266.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,910 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,965 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $255): -$5,933 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$256 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,134 (+$5,776 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,226 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,908, the opportunity cost of earning $3,240/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $252.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 2.1% | 78%hist 84% | 44%hist 39% | +15pp | $485 | $7,275 | +$4,035 | $8,451 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $252.50 2.1% OTM over spot $247.34 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $1.01 mid) = $485 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,275/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $252.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $253.51) 82% EV / mo +$3,058 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 87% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,743/mo median; plan ~$1,865/mo after 68% keep · $3,416 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 87% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$590 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $275 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.04/sh now → $2.15 mid-life (likely $2.59–$4.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 809 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $255 (overshoots $2.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $252.50 is $18 below CC-SS $270.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $253.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $252)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $266.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,910 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,965 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $252.50): -$8,451 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,396 (+$3,514 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,226 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,170, the opportunity cost of earning $7,275/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $262.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 6.1% | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 26% | +4pp | $312 | $1,040 | -$2,460 | $2,837 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $262.50 6.1% OTM over spot $247.34 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.83 mid) = $312 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $262.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $263.33) 90% EV / mo +$528 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-92/mo median; plan ~$-63/mo after 68% keep · $-272 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,305 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $270 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.72/sh now → $4.04 mid-life (likely $3.37–$5.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 450 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $265 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $262.50 is $8 below CC-SS $270.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.78 collected) or spot ≥ $263.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $262)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $266.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,910 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,965 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $262.50): -$2,837 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$256 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,038 (+$8,872 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,226 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,812, the opportunity cost of earning $1,040/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $257.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 4.1% | 80%hist 86% | 40%hist 39% | +6pp | $760 | $2,533 | -$967 | $5,676 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $257.50 4.1% OTM over spot $247.34 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.60 mid) = $760 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,533/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $257.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $259.11) 84% EV / mo +$994 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $597/mo median; plan ~$406/mo after 68% keep · $1,332 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.9], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,223 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $270 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.61/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $4.02–$6.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 899 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $260 (overshoots $2.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $257.50 is $13 below CC-SS $270.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.52 collected) or spot ≥ $259.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $266.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,910 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,965 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $257.50): -$5,676 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,621 (+$6,289 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,226 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,395, the opportunity cost of earning $2,533/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $255 | 25 Sep | 9d | 3.1% | 74%hist 84% | 52%hist 44% | +9pp | $1,050 | $3,500 | — | $6,636 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $255 3.1% OTM over spot $247.34 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.17 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $255) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $257.17) 80% EV / mo +$1,186 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $915/mo median; plan ~$622/mo after 68% keep · $1,989 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$914 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $268 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.55/sh now → $3.93 mid-life (likely $4.34–$6.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,225 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $257 (overshoots $2.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $255 is $15 below CC-SS $270.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $257.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $266.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,910 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,965 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $255): -$6,636 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,581 (+$5,329 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,226 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,355, the opportunity cost of earning $3,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $250 | 25 Sep | 9d | 1.1% | 60%hist 70% | 82%hist 79% | +13pp | $1,900 | $6,333 | +$2,833 | $8,286 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $250 1.1% OTM over spot $247.34 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $3.92 mid) = $1,900 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $250) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $253.93) 71% EV / mo +$1,501 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,579/mo median; plan ~$1,073/mo after 68% keep · $2,655 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.4-2.6], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$25 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $273 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.45/sh now → $3.85 mid-life (likely $5.13–$6.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,011 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $252 (overshoots $2.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $250 is $20 below CC-SS $270.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.95/sh (~25% of the $3.80 collected) or spot ≥ $253.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $250)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $266.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,910 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,965 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $250): -$8,286 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,231 (+$3,679 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,226 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,005, the opportunity cost of earning $6,333/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.039 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,965 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,226
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $255 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.54 | 4/5 | $3,240 | $2,394 | 87% | 89% | +$1,738 | -$5,933 | 17.5% | $-6,134 (vs do-nothing $-4,908) |
| $252.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.97 | 3/5 | $4,365 | $3,597 | 78% | 82% | +$1,835 | -$5,071 | 14.9% | $-5,528 (vs do-nothing $-4,302) |
| $255 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.10 | 5/5 | $3,500 | $2,577 | 74% | 80% | +$1,186 | -$6,636 | 19.5% | $-6,581 (vs do-nothing $-5,355) |
| $252.50 | 5d | 21 Sep 2026 | $1.41 | 4/5 | $3,384 | $2,538 | 74% | 79% | +$1,148 | -$6,585 | 19.4% | $-6,786 (vs do-nothing $-5,560) |
| $252.50 | 7d | 23 Sep 2026 | $2.06 | 4/5 | $3,531 | $2,686 | 70% | 76% | +$852 | -$6,325 | 18.6% | $-6,526 (vs do-nothing $-5,300) |
| $255 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 5/5 | $3,281 | $2,358 | 69% | 77% | +$984 | -$5,936 | 17.5% | $-5,881 (vs do-nothing $-4,655) |
| $252.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.84 | 4/5 | $3,787 | $2,941 | 67% | 76% | +$1,073 | -$6,013 | 17.7% | $-6,214 (vs do-nothing $-4,988) |
| $252.50 | 12d | 28 Sep 2026 | $2.95 | 5/5 | $3,688 | $2,764 | 66% | 75% | +$739 | -$7,461 | 22.0% | $-7,406 (vs do-nothing $-6,180) |
| $250 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.70 | 2/5 | $5,100 | $4,409 | 66% | 75% | +$1,639 | -$3,734 | 11.0% | $-4,448 (vs do-nothing $-3,222) |
| $252.50 | 14d | 30 Sep 2026 | $3.60 | 5/5 | $3,857 | $2,934 | 65% | 74% | +$871 | -$7,136 | 21.0% | $-7,081 (vs do-nothing $-5,855) |
| $252.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.30 | 4/5 | $3,225 | $2,379 | 64% | 74% | +$808 | -$5,429 | 16.0% | $-5,630 (vs do-nothing $-4,404) |
| $250 | 5d | 21 Sep 2026 | $2.21 | 3/5 | $3,978 | $3,210 | 63% | 73% | +$1,035 | -$5,449 | 16.0% | $-5,906 (vs do-nothing $-4,680) |
| $250 | 7d | 23 Sep 2026 | $2.99 | 3/5 | $3,844 | $3,076 | 61% | 72% | +$801 | -$5,215 | 15.4% | $-5,672 (vs do-nothing $-4,446) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $250 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 3/5 | $3,800 | $3,032 | 60% | 71% | +$901 | -$4,972 | 14.6% | $-5,429 (vs do-nothing $-4,203) |
| $250 | 12d | 28 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 4/5 | $3,800 | $2,954 | 59% | 71% | +$527 | -$6,629 | 19.5% | $-6,830 (vs do-nothing $-5,604) |
| $250 | 14d | 30 Sep 2026 | $4.65 | 4/5 | $3,986 | $3,140 | 58% | 71% | +$793 | -$6,289 | 18.5% | $-6,490 (vs do-nothing $-5,264) |
| $250 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.35 | 4/5 | $4,012 | $3,167 | 58% | 71% | +$880 | -$6,009 | 17.7% | $-6,210 (vs do-nothing $-4,984) |
| $250 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.70 | 4/5 | $3,496 | $2,650 | 57% | 70% | +$756 | -$5,469 | 16.1% | $-5,670 (vs do-nothing $-4,444) |
| $247.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.55 | 3/5 | $3,684 | $2,916 | 52% | 68% | +$704 | -$4,897 | 14.4% | $-5,354 (vs do-nothing $-4,128) |
| $247.50 | 14d | 30 Sep 2026 | $5.85 | 3/5 | $3,761 | $2,993 | 52% | 68% | +$630 | -$5,107 | 15.0% | $-5,564 (vs do-nothing $-4,338) |
| $247.50 | 12d | 28 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $3,825 | $3,057 | 52% | 67% | +$514 | -$5,332 | 15.7% | $-5,789 (vs do-nothing $-4,563) |
| $247.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.95 | 2/5 | $3,300 | $2,609 | 52% | 68% | +$628 | -$3,584 | 10.6% | $-4,298 (vs do-nothing $-3,072) |
| $247.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.79 | 1/5 | $4,185 | $3,572 | 52% | 68% | +$959 | -$2,008 | 5.9% | $-2,978 (vs do-nothing $-1,752) |
| $247.50 | 7d | 23 Sep 2026 | $4.10 | 2/5 | $3,514 | $2,824 | 51% | 67% | +$560 | -$3,754 | 11.1% | $-4,468 (vs do-nothing $-3,242) |
| $247.50 | 5d | 21 Sep 2026 | $3.25 | 2/5 | $3,900 | $3,209 | 51% | 68% | +$672 | -$3,924 | 11.6% | $-4,638 (vs do-nothing $-3,412) |
| $245 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.15 | 3/5 | $3,580 | $2,812 | 47% | 66% | +$558 | -$4,867 | 14.3% | $-5,324 (vs do-nothing $-4,098) |
| $245 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.85 | 3/5 | $4,416 | $3,648 | 45% | 65% | +$682 | -$5,257 | 15.5% | $-5,714 (vs do-nothing $-4,488) |
| $245 | 14d | 30 Sep 2026 | $7.15 | 3/5 | $4,596 | $3,828 | 45% | 65% | +$594 | -$5,467 | 16.1% | $-5,924 (vs do-nothing $-4,698) |
| $245 | 12d | 28 Sep 2026 | $6.20 | 3/5 | $4,650 | $3,882 | 44% | 64% | +$311 | -$5,752 | 16.9% | $-6,209 (vs do-nothing $-4,983) |
| $245 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.20 | 2/5 | $4,133 | $3,443 | 43% | 64% | +$552 | -$3,834 | 11.3% | $-4,548 (vs do-nothing $-3,322) |
| $245 | 7d | 23 Sep 2026 | $5.25 | 2/5 | $4,500 | $3,809 | 42% | 63% | +$370 | -$4,024 | 11.9% | $-4,738 (vs do-nothing $-3,512) |
| $245 | 5d | 21 Sep 2026 | $4.65 | 2/5 | $5,580 | $4,889 | 39% | 63% | +$636 | -$4,144 | 12.2% | $-4,858 (vs do-nothing $-3,632) |
| $242.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.40 | 2/5 | $3,525 | $2,834 | 39% | 63% | +$462 | -$3,694 | 10.9% | $-4,408 (vs do-nothing $-3,182) |
| $242.50 | 14d | 30 Sep 2026 | $8.65 | 2/5 | $3,707 | $3,017 | 38% | 62% | +$370 | -$3,844 | 11.3% | $-4,558 (vs do-nothing $-3,332) |
| $242.50 | 12d | 28 Sep 2026 | $7.75 | 2/5 | $3,875 | $3,184 | 37% | 61% | +$186 | -$4,024 | 11.9% | $-4,738 (vs do-nothing $-3,512) |
| $245 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.20 | 1/5 | $6,300 | $5,687 | 37% | 63% | +$902 | -$2,117 | 6.2% | $-3,087 (vs do-nothing $-1,861) |
| $242.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.85 | 2/5 | $5,233 | $4,543 | 35% | 61% | +$578 | -$4,004 | 11.8% | $-4,718 (vs do-nothing $-3,492) |
| $242.50 | 7d | 23 Sep 2026 | $6.80 | 2/5 | $5,829 | $5,138 | 33% | 60% | +$281 | -$4,214 | 12.4% | $-4,928 (vs do-nothing $-3,702) |
| $242.50 | 5d | 21 Sep 2026 | $6.35 | 1/5 | $3,810 | $3,197 | 29% | 59% | +$274 | -$2,152 | 6.3% | $-3,122 (vs do-nothing $-1,896) |
| $242.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.90 | 1/5 | $8,850 | $8,237 | 24% | 58% | +$661 | -$2,197 | 6.5% | $-3,167 (vs do-nothing $-1,941) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.