5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $267.92 | CC-SS: $270.32 (banked floor $267.77) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $51,460 | (ND $67.92 + SW $35) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,423/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $843/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-11,055 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 8d | 5 × $257.50 | 77% | $2,869 | $1,512 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $265 | 9 Oct | 8d | 6.2% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +0pp | $260 | $975 | -$1,894 | $2,401 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $265 6.2% OTM over spot $249.49 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.55 mid) = $260 credit for the 8d cycle → $975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $265) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $265.56) 92% EV / mo +$477 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-99/mo median; plan ~$-67/mo after 68% keep · $-212 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,451 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $271 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.84/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $3.04–$4.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $265 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $267 (overshoots $2.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $265 is $5 below CC-SS $270.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $265.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $265)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $259.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,198 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $265): -$2,401 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,259 (+$8,796 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,195, the opportunity cost of earning $975/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $260 | 9 Oct | 8d | 4.2% | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 33% | +5pp | $530 | $1,988 | -$881 | $4,631 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $260 4.2% OTM over spot $249.49 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.11 mid) = $530 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,988/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $260) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $261.11) 85% EV / mo +$704 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 73% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $416/mo median; plan ~$283/mo after 68% keep · $835 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,149 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $271 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.75/sh now → $3.36 mid-life (likely $3.33–$5.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 769 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $262 (overshoots $2.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $260 is $10 below CC-SS $270.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $261.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $260)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $259.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,198 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $260): -$4,631 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,489 (+$6,566 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,425, the opportunity cost of earning $1,988/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $257.50 | 9 Oct | 8d | 3.2% | 77%hist 82% | 47%hist 41% | +6pp | $765 | $2,869 | — | $5,646 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $257.50 3.2% OTM over spot $249.49 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.59 mid) = $765 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,869/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $257.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $259.09) 81% EV / mo +$860 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $804/mo median; plan ~$547/mo after 68% keep · $1,534 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.6], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$897 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $268 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.70/sh now → $3.32 mid-life (likely $3.65–$5.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,087 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $260 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $257.50 is $13 below CC-SS $270.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.53 collected) or spot ≥ $259.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $259.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,198 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $257.50): -$5,646 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,504 (+$5,551 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,440, the opportunity cost of earning $2,869/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $252.50 | 9 Oct | 8d | 1.2% | 62%hist 64% | 78%hist 68% | +10pp | $1,500 | $5,625 | +$2,756 | $7,411 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $252.50 1.2% OTM over spot $249.49 9 Oct 2026 (8d, $3.12 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $252.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $255.62) 72% EV / mo +$1,078 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,492/mo median; plan ~$1,014/mo after 68% keep · $2,152 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$130 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $273 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.61/sh now → $3.26 mid-life (likely $4.19–$5.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,894 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $255 (overshoots $2.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $252.50 is $18 below CC-SS $270.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $255.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $252)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $259.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,198 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $252.50): -$7,411 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,269 (+$3,786 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,205, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.075 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,198 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,064
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $255 | 4d | 5 Oct 2026 | $0.88 | 5/5 | $3,300 | $2,457 | 78% | 82% | +$1,009 | -$7,221 | 21.3% | $-7,079 (vs do-nothing $-6,015) |
| $257.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.53 | 5/5 | $2,869 | $2,026 | 77% | 81% | +$860 | -$5,646 | 16.6% | $-5,504 (vs do-nothing $-4,440) |
| $255 | 6d | 7 Oct 2026 | $1.52 | 4/5 | $3,040 | $2,309 | 73% | 78% | +$775 | -$5,521 | 16.3% | $-5,620 (vs do-nothing $-4,556) |
| $255 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.21 | 4/5 | $3,315 | $2,584 | 70% | 76% | +$861 | -$5,245 | 15.4% | $-5,344 (vs do-nothing $-4,280) |
| $255 | 11d | 12 Oct 2026 | $2.33 | 5/5 | $3,177 | $2,334 | 69% | 76% | +$595 | -$6,496 | 19.1% | $-6,354 (vs do-nothing $-5,290) |
| $252.50 | 4d | 5 Oct 2026 | $1.46 | 3/5 | $3,285 | $2,666 | 67% | 74% | +$657 | -$4,909 | 14.5% | $-5,249 (vs do-nothing $-4,185) |
| $255 | 13d | 14 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $2,769 | $2,038 | 67% | 75% | +$616 | -$4,929 | 14.5% | $-5,028 (vs do-nothing $-3,964) |
| $255 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 4/5 | $2,880 | $2,149 | 65% | 74% | +$631 | -$4,689 | 13.8% | $-4,788 (vs do-nothing $-3,724) |
| $252.50 | 6d | 7 Oct 2026 | $2.27 | 3/5 | $3,405 | $2,786 | 64% | 73% | +$644 | -$4,666 | 13.7% | $-5,006 (vs do-nothing $-3,942) |
| $255 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $4.55 | 5/5 | $3,102 | $2,259 | 63% | 73% | +$464 | -$5,386 | 15.9% | $-5,244 (vs do-nothing $-4,180) |
| $252.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 3/5 | $3,375 | $2,756 | 62% | 72% | +$647 | -$4,447 | 13.1% | $-4,787 (vs do-nothing $-3,723) |
| $252.50 | 11d | 12 Oct 2026 | $3.15 | 4/5 | $3,436 | $2,705 | 61% | 72% | +$488 | -$5,869 | 17.3% | $-5,968 (vs do-nothing $-4,904) |
| $252.50 | 13d | 14 Oct 2026 | $3.65 | 4/5 | $3,369 | $2,638 | 60% | 71% | +$419 | -$5,669 | 16.7% | $-5,768 (vs do-nothing $-4,704) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.50 | 4/5 | $3,600 | $2,869 | 59% | 70% | +$632 | -$5,329 | 15.7% | $-5,428 (vs do-nothing $-4,364) |
| $250 | 4d | 5 Oct 2026 | $2.42 | 2/5 | $3,630 | $3,122 | 54% | 67% | +$504 | -$3,581 | 10.5% | $-4,162 (vs do-nothing $-3,098) |
| $250 | 6d | 7 Oct 2026 | $3.30 | 2/5 | $3,300 | $2,792 | 53% | 67% | +$449 | -$3,405 | 10.0% | $-3,986 (vs do-nothing $-2,922) |
| $250 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.05 | 2/5 | $3,038 | $2,530 | 53% | 67% | +$430 | -$3,255 | 9.6% | $-3,836 (vs do-nothing $-2,772) |
| $250 | 11d | 12 Oct 2026 | $4.40 | 3/5 | $3,600 | $2,981 | 53% | 67% | +$530 | -$4,777 | 14.1% | $-5,117 (vs do-nothing $-4,053) |
| $250 | 13d | 14 Oct 2026 | $4.70 | 3/5 | $3,254 | $2,634 | 53% | 69% | +$296 | -$4,687 | 13.8% | $-5,027 (vs do-nothing $-3,963) |
| $250 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $6.95 | 3/5 | $2,843 | $2,224 | 53% | 67% | +$408 | -$4,012 | 11.8% | $-4,352 (vs do-nothing $-3,288) |
| $250 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.60 | 3/5 | $3,360 | $2,741 | 53% | 67% | +$475 | -$4,417 | 13.0% | $-4,757 (vs do-nothing $-3,693) |
| $247.50 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $6.85 | 2/5 | $2,740 | $2,232 | 46% | 64% | +$295 | -$3,195 | 9.4% | $-3,776 (vs do-nothing $-2,712) |
| $247.50 | 13d | 14 Oct 2026 | $5.85 | 3/5 | $4,050 | $3,431 | 45% | 64% | +$189 | -$5,092 | 15.0% | $-5,432 (vs do-nothing $-4,368) |
| $247.50 | 11d | 12 Oct 2026 | $5.30 | 2/5 | $2,891 | $2,383 | 44% | 64% | +$131 | -$3,505 | 10.3% | $-4,086 (vs do-nothing $-3,022) |
| $247.50 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.35 | 2/5 | $4,012 | $3,505 | 44% | 63% | +$408 | -$3,495 | 10.3% | $-4,076 (vs do-nothing $-3,012) |
| $247.50 | 6d | 7 Oct 2026 | $4.55 | 2/5 | $4,550 | $4,042 | 42% | 62% | +$355 | -$3,655 | 10.8% | $-4,236 (vs do-nothing $-3,172) |
| $245 | 22d | 23 Oct 2026 | $9.65 | 3/5 | $3,948 | $3,328 | 42% | 63% | +$391 | -$4,702 | 13.8% | $-5,042 (vs do-nothing $-3,978) |
| $245 | 15d | 16 Oct 2026 | $8.30 | 2/5 | $3,320 | $2,812 | 39% | 62% | +$272 | -$3,405 | 10.0% | $-3,986 (vs do-nothing $-2,922) |
| $247.50 | 4d | 5 Oct 2026 | $3.70 | 1/5 | $2,775 | $2,379 | 39% | 61% | +$199 | -$1,912 | 5.6% | $-2,735 (vs do-nothing $-1,671) |
| $245 | 13d | 14 Oct 2026 | $7.25 | 2/5 | $3,346 | $2,839 | 38% | 63% | +$67 | -$3,615 | 10.6% | $-4,196 (vs do-nothing $-3,132) |
| $245 | 11d | 12 Oct 2026 | $7.00 | 2/5 | $3,818 | $3,311 | 36% | 62% | +$205 | -$3,665 | 10.8% | $-4,246 (vs do-nothing $-3,182) |
| $245 | 8d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.90 | 2/5 | $5,175 | $4,667 | 35% | 60% | +$370 | -$3,685 | 10.8% | $-4,266 (vs do-nothing $-3,202) |
| $245 | 6d | 7 Oct 2026 | $6.05 | 1/5 | $3,025 | $2,629 | 32% | 62% | +$94 | -$1,927 | 5.7% | $-2,750 (vs do-nothing $-1,686) |
| $245 | 4d | 5 Oct 2026 | $5.30 | 1/5 | $3,975 | $3,579 | 26% | 56% | +$64 | -$2,002 | 5.9% | $-2,825 (vs do-nothing $-1,761) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.