5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $267.92 | CC-SS: $270.76 (banked floor $268.22) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $51,460 | (ND $67.92 + SW $35) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,861/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $664/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,780 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 9 Oct 2026 · 7d | 4 × $257.50 | 70% | $3,343 | $49 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $267.50 | 9 Oct | 7d | 5.9% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 14% | -1pp | $180 | $771 | -$2,571 | $1,450 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $267.50 5.9% OTM over spot $252.53 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.38 mid) = $180 credit for the 7d cycle → $771/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $267.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $267.88) 93% EV / mo +$429 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-29/mo median; plan ~$-20/mo after 68% keep · $-41 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-3.0], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,350 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $285 @ 89% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.33/sh now → $3.06 mid-life (likely $2.37–$4.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $268 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $269 (overshoots $2.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $267.50 is $3 below CC-SS $270.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $267.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $268)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $258.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,935 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $267.50): -$1,450 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,295 (+$8,485 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,255 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40, the opportunity cost of earning $771/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $280 | 30 Oct | 28d | 10.9% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | +1pp | $1,325 | $1,420 | -$1,923 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $280 10.9% OTM over spot $252.53 30 Oct 2026 (28d, $2.75 mid) = $1,325 credit for the 28d cycle → $1,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $280) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $282.75) 94% EV / mo +$1,215 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $32/mo median; plan ~$22/mo after 68% keep · $212 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,516 Free roll-up none Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.69/sh now → $9.68 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $280 is at/above CC-SS $270.76: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.65 collected) or spot ≥ $282.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $280)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $258.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,935 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $280): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $155 (+$9,935 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,255 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,410, the opportunity cost of earning $1,420/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $260 | 9 Oct | 7d | 3.0% | 78%hist 82% | 44%hist 41% | +5pp | $532 | $2,280 | -$1,063 | $3,772 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $260 3.0% OTM over spot $252.53 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $1.36 mid) = $532 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $260) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $261.36) 82% EV / mo +$863 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $837/mo median; plan ~$569/mo after 68% keep · $1,345 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$657 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $282 @ 92% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.20/sh now → $2.97 mid-life (likely $3.04–$4.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,016 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $262 (overshoots $2.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $260 is $11 below CC-SS $270.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.33 collected) or spot ≥ $261.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $260)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $258.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,935 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $260): -$3,772 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$282 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,899 (+$5,881 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,255 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,644, the opportunity cost of earning $2,280/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $257.50 | 9 Oct | 7d | 2.0% | 70%hist 82% | 60%hist 46% | +6pp | $780 | $3,343 | — | $4,524 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $257.50 2.0% OTM over spot $252.53 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $2.00 mid) = $780 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,343/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $257.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $259.50) 77% EV / mo +$1,012 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 81% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,157/mo median; plan ~$787/mo after 68% keep · $1,799 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 81% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$398 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $280 @ 92% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.16/sh now → $2.94 mid-life (likely $3.43–$5.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,417 simulated challenges: the $258 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $260 (overshoots $2.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $257.50 is $13 below CC-SS $270.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.95 collected) or spot ≥ $259.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $258)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $258.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,935 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $257.50): -$4,524 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$282 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,651 (+$5,129 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,255 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,396, the opportunity cost of earning $3,343/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $255 | 9 Oct | 7d | 1.0% | 61%hist 64% | 79%hist 68% | +10pp | $1,445 | $6,193 | +$2,850 | $6,435 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $255 1.0% OTM over spot $252.53 9 Oct 2026 (7d, $2.92 mid) = $1,445 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,193/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $255) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $257.92) 72% EV / mo +$1,591 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 75% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,974/mo median; plan ~$1,343/mo after 68% keep · $2,300 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-1.8], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Oct 2026) $277 @ 92% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.12/sh now → $2.92 mid-life (likely $3.75–$5.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,837 simulated challenges: the $255 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $257 (overshoots $2.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $255 is $16 below CC-SS $270.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.72/sh (~25% of the $2.89 collected) or spot ≥ $257.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $255)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $258.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $270.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,780 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,935 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $255): -$6,435 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,280 (+$3,500 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,255 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,025, the opportunity cost of earning $6,193/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.090 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,935 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,255
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $6.05 | 5/5 | $3,241 | $2,577 | 75% | 84% | +$2,085 | -$0 | 0.0% | $300 (vs do-nothing +$1,555) |
| $257.50 | 5d | 7 Oct 2026 | $1.29 | 4/5 | $3,096 | $2,564 | 74% | 79% | +$1,014 | -$4,788 | 14.1% | $-4,915 (vs do-nothing $-3,660) |
| $257.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.95 | 4/5 | $3,343 | $2,811 | 70% | 77% | +$1,012 | -$4,524 | 13.3% | $-4,651 (vs do-nothing $-3,396) |
| $257.50 | 10d | 12 Oct 2026 | $2.08 | 5/5 | $3,120 | $2,456 | 69% | 76% | +$633 | -$5,590 | 16.5% | $-5,435 (vs do-nothing $-4,180) |
| $260 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $7.85 | 4/5 | $3,364 | $2,832 | 66% | 80% | +$1,876 | -$1,164 | 3.4% | $-1,291 (vs do-nothing $-36) |
| $257.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.40 | 5/5 | $3,643 | $2,979 | 65% | 74% | +$936 | -$4,930 | 14.5% | $-4,775 (vs do-nothing $-3,520) |
| $255 | 5d | 7 Oct 2026 | $2.07 | 3/5 | $3,726 | $3,326 | 63% | 73% | +$915 | -$4,107 | 12.1% | $-4,516 (vs do-nothing $-3,261) |
| $255 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.89 | 3/5 | $3,716 | $3,315 | 61% | 72% | +$954 | -$3,861 | 11.4% | $-4,270 (vs do-nothing $-3,015) |
| $255 | 10d | 12 Oct 2026 | $3.05 | 4/5 | $3,660 | $3,128 | 60% | 71% | +$694 | -$5,084 | 15.0% | $-5,211 (vs do-nothing $-3,956) |
| $255 | 12d | 14 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 4/5 | $3,200 | $2,668 | 59% | 70% | +$80 | -$5,024 | 14.8% | $-5,151 (vs do-nothing $-3,896) |
| $255 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.45 | 4/5 | $3,814 | $3,282 | 58% | 71% | +$859 | -$4,524 | 13.3% | $-4,651 (vs do-nothing $-3,396) |
| $255 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $5.90 | 4/5 | $3,371 | $2,839 | 57% | 71% | +$823 | -$3,944 | 11.6% | $-4,071 (vs do-nothing $-2,816) |
| $255 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $10.10 | 3/5 | $3,246 | $2,846 | 57% | 76% | +$1,538 | -$1,698 | 5.0% | $-2,107 (vs do-nothing $-852) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.50 | 3/5 | $3,536 | $3,135 | 51% | 67% | +$586 | -$3,828 | 11.3% | $-4,237 (vs do-nothing $-2,982) |
| $252.50 | 12d | 14 Oct 2026 | $4.55 | 3/5 | $3,412 | $3,012 | 51% | 67% | +$229 | -$4,113 | 12.1% | $-4,522 (vs do-nothing $-3,267) |
| $252.50 | 10d | 12 Oct 2026 | $4.25 | 3/5 | $3,825 | $3,425 | 51% | 67% | +$620 | -$4,203 | 12.4% | $-4,612 (vs do-nothing $-3,357) |
| $252.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.95 | 2/5 | $3,386 | $3,117 | 51% | 67% | +$609 | -$2,862 | 8.4% | $-3,553 (vs do-nothing $-2,298) |
| $252.50 | 5d | 7 Oct 2026 | $3.15 | 2/5 | $3,780 | $3,512 | 50% | 67% | +$636 | -$3,022 | 8.9% | $-3,713 (vs do-nothing $-2,458) |
| $250 | 28d | 30 Oct 2026 | $12.45 | 3/5 | $4,002 | $3,601 | 46% | 71% | +$1,509 | -$2,493 | 7.3% | $-2,902 (vs do-nothing $-1,647) |
| $250 | 21d | 23 Oct 2026 | $8.15 | 3/5 | $3,493 | $3,093 | 45% | 65% | +$532 | -$3,783 | 11.1% | $-4,192 (vs do-nothing $-2,937) |
| $250 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $7.00 | 2/5 | $3,000 | $2,732 | 44% | 64% | +$448 | -$2,752 | 8.1% | $-3,443 (vs do-nothing $-2,188) |
| $250 | 12d | 14 Oct 2026 | $5.40 | 3/5 | $4,050 | $3,650 | 43% | 63% | $-159 | -$4,608 | 13.6% | $-5,017 (vs do-nothing $-3,762) |
| $250 | 10d | 12 Oct 2026 | $5.50 | 2/5 | $3,300 | $3,032 | 41% | 63% | +$334 | -$3,052 | 9.0% | $-3,743 (vs do-nothing $-2,488) |
| $250 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.30 | 2/5 | $4,543 | $4,275 | 40% | 63% | +$554 | -$3,092 | 9.1% | $-3,783 (vs do-nothing $-2,528) |
| $250 | 5d | 7 Oct 2026 | $4.40 | 2/5 | $5,280 | $5,012 | 38% | 61% | +$392 | -$3,272 | 9.6% | $-3,963 (vs do-nothing $-2,708) |
| $247.50 | 14d | 16 Oct 2026 | $8.45 | 2/5 | $3,621 | $3,353 | 37% | 61% | +$391 | -$2,962 | 8.7% | $-3,653 (vs do-nothing $-2,398) |
| $247.50 | 12d | 14 Oct 2026 | $7.70 | 2/5 | $3,850 | $3,582 | 35% | 61% | +$241 | -$3,112 | 9.2% | $-3,803 (vs do-nothing $-2,548) |
| $247.50 | 10d | 12 Oct 2026 | $6.80 | 2/5 | $4,080 | $3,812 | 32% | 60% | +$116 | -$3,292 | 9.7% | $-3,983 (vs do-nothing $-2,728) |
| $247.50 | 7d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.90 | 1/5 | $2,957 | $2,821 | 31% | 59% | +$227 | -$1,636 | 4.8% | $-2,609 (vs do-nothing $-1,354) |
| $247.50 | 5d | 7 Oct 2026 | $6.20 | 1/5 | $3,720 | $3,584 | 26% | 57% | +$187 | -$1,706 | 5.0% | $-2,679 (vs do-nothing $-1,424) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.