FORTRESS FIGHT: AMZN @ $245.56

BE SS: $267.92  |  CC-SS: $270.09  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-30 03:13

AMZN @ $245.56   UNDERWATER $22.36 (8.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
AMZN reports 2026-10-29 (Thu), TODAY. The recommended CC (4d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $267.92  |  CC-SS: $270.09 (banked floor $267.89)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $200 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $94.731/sh)
SP: $250 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.636/sh)
HP: $215 exp 2027-02-19 (entry $6.933/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$51,460(ND $67.92 + SW $35) x 500
Normal income ref$12,508/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$1,015/mo
Unrealized P&L$-12,172fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,254/mo
HEDGE COVER
$1,015/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$12,508/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.7 mo to earn back $33,960
ML VELOCITY
4.1 mo to earn back $51,460
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $270.09 (probe: $270C 13d) still earns $3,323/mo (27% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-08-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-08-13
$1,152
Hole (after banked)
$11,020
was $12,172 · 9% earned back
Cycles closed
25
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$270.09 → $267.89
? 5 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (25) and event log · CLOSED 17 · UNKNOWN 5 · EXPIRED 3 · updated 2026-10-30 03:10
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
EXPIRED5x $267.5C 14 Oct 2026$0.49$2432026-10-132026-10-15$0.00$243U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $277.5C 16 Oct 2026$0.31$312026-10-122026-10-13$0.16$15U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $277.5C 16 Oct 2026$0.31$312026-10-122026-10-13$0.17$14U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $277.5C 16 Oct 2026$0.31$312026-10-122026-10-13$0.17$14U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $277.5C 16 Oct 2026$0.31$312026-10-122026-10-13$0.17$14U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $277.5C 16 Oct 2026$0.31$312026-10-122026-10-13$0.16$15U6241782execution
CLOSED4x $262.5C 14 Oct 2026$1.07$4272026-10-092026-10-12$2.31$-497U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $262.5C 14 Oct 2026$1.07$1072026-10-092026-10-12$2.31$-124U6241782execution
CLOSED2x $275C 16 Oct 2026$0.40$802026-10-072026-10-09$0.24$32U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $275C 16 Oct 2026$0.40$402026-10-072026-10-09$0.25$15U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $275C 16 Oct 2026$0.40$402026-10-072026-10-09$0.25$15U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $275C 16 Oct 2026$0.40$402026-10-072026-10-09$0.24$16U6241782execution
CLOSED1x $260C 9 Oct 2026$1.15$1152026-10-052026-10-07$1.24$-9U6241782snapshot
CLOSED1x $260C 9 Oct 2026$1.15$1152026-10-052026-10-07$1.22$-7U6241782snapshot
CLOSED1x $260C 9 Oct 2026$1.15$1152026-10-052026-10-07$1.22$-7U6241782snapshot
CLOSED1x $260C 9 Oct 2026$1.15$1152026-10-052026-10-07$1.23$-8U6241782snapshot
CLOSED1x $260C 9 Oct 2026$1.15$1152026-10-052026-10-07$1.23$-8U6241782snapshot
EXPIRED5x $257.5C 30 Sep 2026$0.88$4422026-09-282026-10-01$0.00$442U6241782snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $270C 2 Oct 2026$0.27$1342026-09-252026-09-28$0.27$0U6241782execution
UNKNOWN5x $275C 2 Oct 2026$0.62$3122026-09-222026-09-25$0.62$0U6241782snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $260C 25 Sep 2026$1.16$5822026-09-182026-09-22$1.16$0U6241782snapshot
CLOSED5x $267.5C 11 Sep 2026$0.82$4102026-09-022026-09-09$0.11$355U6241782execution
UNKNOWN5x $270C 4 Sep 2026$0.73$3662026-09-012026-09-02$0.73$0U6241782snapshot
EXPIRED5x $272.5C 28 Aug 2026$1.25$6252026-08-182026-08-31$0.00$625U6241782execution
UNKNOWN5x $277.5C 21 Aug 2026$2.00$1,0022026-08-132026-08-18$2.00$0U6241782seed
Event log
2026-10-15 BOT 5x $267.5C 20261014 @ $0.00 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $267.5C: banked $243
2026-10-13 CLOSED 1x $277.5C 20261016: banked $15
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $277.5C: banked $15 (1 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $277.5C: banked $14 (2 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $277.5C: banked $14 (3 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $277.5C: banked $14 (4 remain)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $267.5C 20261014 @ $0.48 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $267.5C 20261014 @ $0.48 (extends leg to 4)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $267.5C 20261014 @ $0.49 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $267.5C 20261014 @ $0.49 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $267.5C 20261014 @ $0.49 (new leg)
2026-10-12 CLOSED 4x $262.5C 20261014: banked $-497
2026-10-12 SOLD 4x $277.5C 20261016 @ $0.31 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-12 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $262.5C: banked $-124 (4 remain)
2026-10-12 SOLD 1x $277.5C 20261016 @ $0.31 (new leg)
2026-10-09 CLOSED 2x $275C 20261016: banked $32
2026-10-09 SOLD 2x $262.5C 20261014 @ $1.04 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-09 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $275C: banked $16 (2 remain)
2026-10-09 SOLD 1x $262.5C 20261014 @ $1.04 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-09 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $275C: banked $15 (3 remain)
2026-10-09 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $275C: banked $15 (4 remain)
2026-10-09 SOLD 1x $262.5C 20261014 @ $1.11 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-09 SOLD 1x $262.5C 20261014 @ $1.11 (new leg)
2026-10-07 CLOSED 1x $260C 20261009: banked $-9
2026-10-07 SOLD 1x $275C 20261016 @ $0.40 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-07 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $260C: banked $-8 (1 remain)
2026-10-07 SOLD 1x $275C 20261016 @ $0.39 (extends leg to 4)
2026-10-07 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $260C: banked $-8 (2 remain)
2026-10-07 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $260C: banked $-7 (3 remain)
2026-10-07 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $260C: banked $-7 (4 remain)
2026-10-07 SOLD 1x $275C 20261016 @ $0.41 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-07 SOLD 1x $275C 20261016 @ $0.40 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-07 SOLD 1x $275C 20261016 @ $0.40 (new leg)
2026-10-05 TRACKING 5x $260C 20261009 @ $1.15 (snapshot)
2026-10-01 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $257.5C: banked $442
2026-09-28 TRACKING 5x $257.5C 20260930 @ $0.88 (snapshot)
2026-09-28 ? 5x $270C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-25 ? 5x $275C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-25 BOT 1x $250C 20260925 @ $1.31 with no tracked leg (ignored)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 34 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 8 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $274.94 (+12%) · daily UBB $265.78 · 1-wk expected move ±$25 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $270.09 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $272.50 2 Nov 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $272.50)
87%
Touch odds
27%
Per cycle
$945
Income / mo
$7,088
🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $280 9 Nov 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $280)
90%
Touch odds
21%
Per cycle
$685
Income / mo
$1,868
🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $305 2 Nov 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $305)
99%
Touch odds
2%
Per cycle
$40
Income / mo
$300
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (54 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 54 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.992 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$12,169 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $574

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$272.504d2 Nov 2026$1.895/5$945$7,088$6,07287%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$2,952-$00.0%0.0mo$941 (vs do-nothing +$367)
$2704d2 Nov 2026$2.295/5$1,145$8,588$7,57284%hist 86%32%hist 30%86%+$3,242-$00.0%0.0mo$1,094 (vs do-nothing +$520)
$267.504d2 Nov 2026$2.735/5$1,365$10,238$9,22282%hist 86%38%hist 30%84%+$3,426-$00.0%0.0mo$64 (vs do-nothing $-510)
$267.506d4 Nov 2026$2.925/5$1,460$7,300$6,28581%hist 86%39%hist 30%84%+$2,437-$00.0%0.0mo$159 (vs do-nothing $-415)
$2654d2 Nov 2026$3.305/5$1,650$12,375$11,36079%hist 83%44%hist 40%82%+$3,824-$8972.6%0.1mo$-901 (vs do-nothing $-1,475)
$2656d4 Nov 2026$3.455/5$1,725$8,625$7,61078%hist 83%44%hist 40%82%+$2,615-$8222.4%0.1mo$-826 (vs do-nothing $-1,400)
$2658d6 Nov 2026$3.705/5$1,850$6,938$5,92278%hist 83%45%hist 40%82%+$2,153-$6972.1%0.1mo$-701 (vs do-nothing $-1,275)
$262.504d2 Nov 2026$3.955/5$1,975$14,812$13,79776%hist 83%50%hist 40%80%+$4,233-$1,8225.4%0.1mo$-1,826 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$262.506d4 Nov 2026$4.105/5$2,050$10,250$9,23576%hist 83%51%hist 44%80%+$2,904-$1,7475.1%0.1mo$-1,751 (vs do-nothing $-2,325)
$262.508d6 Nov 2026$4.305/5$2,150$8,062$7,04775%hist 83%51%hist 44%80%+$2,264-$1,6474.8%0.1mo$-1,651 (vs do-nothing $-2,225)
$2604d2 Nov 2026$4.655/5$2,325$17,438$16,42273%hist 83%56%hist 44%78%+$4,526-$2,7228.0%0.2mo$-2,726 (vs do-nothing $-3,300)
$2606d4 Nov 2026$4.805/5$2,400$12,000$10,98572%hist 83%57%hist 44%78%+$3,118-$2,6477.8%0.2mo$-2,651 (vs do-nothing $-3,225)
$2608d6 Nov 2026$5.055/5$2,525$9,469$8,45372%hist 83%58%hist 44%78%+$2,502-$2,5227.4%0.2mo$-2,526 (vs do-nothing $-3,100)
Show 41 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$26011d9 Nov 2026$5.205/5$2,600$7,091$6,07572%hist 83%59%hist 44%78%+$1,763-$2,4477.2%0.2mo$-2,451 (vs do-nothing $-3,025)
$26013d11 Nov 2026$5.455/5$2,725$6,288$5,27371%hist 83%59%hist 44%77%+$1,588-$2,3226.8%0.2mo$-2,326 (vs do-nothing $-2,900)
$257.504d2 Nov 2026$5.455/5$2,725$20,438$19,42269%hist 66%63%hist 54%76%+$4,877-$3,57210.5%0.3mo$-3,576 (vs do-nothing $-4,150)
$257.506d4 Nov 2026$5.605/5$2,800$14,000$12,98569%hist 66%64%hist 54%76%+$3,371-$3,49710.3%0.3mo$-3,501 (vs do-nothing $-4,075)
$257.508d6 Nov 2026$5.855/5$2,925$10,969$9,95369%hist 66%64%hist 54%76%+$2,668-$3,3729.9%0.3mo$-3,376 (vs do-nothing $-3,950)
$257.5015d13 Nov 2026$6.605/5$3,300$6,600$5,58568%hist 66%67%hist 54%76%+$1,576-$2,9978.8%0.2mo$-3,001 (vs do-nothing $-3,575)
$2554d2 Nov 2026$6.305/5$3,150$23,625$22,61066%hist 66%70%hist 68%74%+$5,087-$4,39712.9%0.4mo$-4,401 (vs do-nothing $-4,975)
$2556d4 Nov 2026$6.455/5$3,225$16,125$15,11066%hist 66%71%hist 68%74%+$3,529-$4,32212.7%0.3mo$-4,326 (vs do-nothing $-4,900)
$2558d6 Nov 2026$6.655/5$3,325$12,469$11,45366%hist 66%71%hist 68%74%+$2,661-$4,22212.4%0.3mo$-4,226 (vs do-nothing $-4,800)
$25511d9 Nov 2026$6.905/5$3,450$9,409$8,39465%hist 66%72%hist 68%74%+$1,953-$4,09712.1%0.3mo$-4,101 (vs do-nothing $-4,675)
$25513d11 Nov 2026$7.005/5$3,500$8,077$7,06165%hist 66%73%hist 68%74%+$1,590-$4,04711.9%0.3mo$-4,051 (vs do-nothing $-4,625)
$25515d13 Nov 2026$7.505/5$3,750$7,500$6,48565%hist 66%73%hist 68%74%+$1,614-$3,79711.2%0.3mo$-3,801 (vs do-nothing $-4,375)
$252.504d2 Nov 2026$7.205/5$3,600$27,000$25,98562%hist 66%78%hist 68%72%+$5,144-$5,19715.3%0.4mo$-5,201 (vs do-nothing $-5,775)
$252.506d4 Nov 2026$7.405/5$3,700$18,500$17,48562%hist 66%78%hist 68%72%+$3,703-$5,09715.0%0.4mo$-5,101 (vs do-nothing $-5,675)
$252.508d6 Nov 2026$7.655/5$3,825$14,344$13,32862%hist 66%79%hist 68%72%+$2,849-$4,97214.6%0.4mo$-4,976 (vs do-nothing $-5,550)
$252.5015d13 Nov 2026$8.455/5$4,225$8,450$7,43562%hist 66%80%hist 68%72%+$1,721-$4,57213.5%0.4mo$-4,576 (vs do-nothing $-5,150)
$252.5022d20 Nov 2026$9.255/5$4,625$6,307$5,29161%hist 66%81%hist 79%72%+$1,249-$4,17212.3%0.3mo$-4,176 (vs do-nothing $-4,750)
$2504d2 Nov 2026$8.255/5$4,125$30,938$29,92259%hist 70%86%hist 79%70%+$5,412-$5,92217.4%0.5mo$-5,926 (vs do-nothing $-6,500)
$2506d4 Nov 2026$8.505/5$4,250$21,250$20,23559%hist 70%86%hist 79%71%+$4,006-$5,79717.1%0.5mo$-5,801 (vs do-nothing $-6,375)
$2508d6 Nov 2026$8.705/5$4,350$16,312$15,29759%hist 70%86%hist 79%70%+$2,945-$5,69716.8%0.5mo$-5,701 (vs do-nothing $-6,275)
$25011d9 Nov 2026$8.905/5$4,450$12,136$11,12159%hist 70%87%hist 79%70%+$2,069-$5,59716.5%0.4mo$-5,601 (vs do-nothing $-6,175)
$25013d11 Nov 2026$9.055/5$4,525$10,442$9,42758%hist 70%87%hist 79%70%+$1,739-$5,52216.3%0.4mo$-5,526 (vs do-nothing $-6,100)
$25015d13 Nov 2026$9.555/5$4,775$9,550$8,53558%hist 70%87%hist 79%70%+$1,701-$5,27215.5%0.4mo$-5,276 (vs do-nothing $-5,850)
$25022d20 Nov 2026$10.305/5$5,150$7,023$6,00758%hist 70%88%hist 79%70%+$1,293-$4,89714.4%0.4mo$-4,901 (vs do-nothing $-5,475)
$247.504d2 Nov 2026$9.355/5$4,675$35,062$34,04755%hist 70%94%hist 89%69%+$5,500-$6,62219.5%0.5mo$-6,626 (vs do-nothing $-7,200)
$247.506d4 Nov 2026$9.555/5$4,775$23,875$22,86055%hist 70%94%hist 89%69%+$3,924-$6,52219.2%0.5mo$-6,526 (vs do-nothing $-7,100)
$247.508d6 Nov 2026$9.805/5$4,900$18,375$17,36055%hist 70%94%hist 89%69%+$2,947-$6,39718.8%0.5mo$-6,401 (vs do-nothing $-6,975)
$247.5015d13 Nov 2026$10.605/5$5,300$10,600$9,58555%hist 70%94%hist 89%69%+$1,674-$5,99717.7%0.5mo$-6,001 (vs do-nothing $-6,575)
$247.5022d20 Nov 2026$11.455/5$5,725$7,807$6,79155%hist 70%95%hist 89%69%+$1,337-$5,57216.4%0.4mo$-5,576 (vs do-nothing $-6,150)
$24522d20 Nov 2026$12.655/5$6,325$8,625$7,61052%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$1,288-$6,22218.3%0.5mo$-6,226 (vs do-nothing $-6,800)
$24515d13 Nov 2026$11.855/5$5,925$11,850$10,83552%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$1,788-$6,62219.5%0.5mo$-6,626 (vs do-nothing $-7,200)
$24513d11 Nov 2026$11.405/5$5,700$13,154$12,13852%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$1,780-$6,84720.2%0.5mo$-6,851 (vs do-nothing $-7,425)
$24511d9 Nov 2026$11.255/5$5,625$15,341$14,32551%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$2,077-$6,92220.4%0.6mo$-6,926 (vs do-nothing $-7,500)
$2458d6 Nov 2026$11.055/5$5,525$20,719$19,70351%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$3,038-$7,02220.7%0.6mo$-7,026 (vs do-nothing $-7,600)
$2456d4 Nov 2026$10.755/5$5,375$26,875$25,86051%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$3,947-$7,17221.1%0.6mo$-7,176 (vs do-nothing $-7,750)
$2454d2 Nov 2026$10.505/5$5,250$39,375$38,36051%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$5,389-$7,29721.5%0.6mo$-7,301 (vs do-nothing $-7,875)
$242.5022d20 Nov 2026$13.905/5$6,950$9,477$8,46249%100%hist 89%66%+$1,315-$6,84720.2%0.5mo$-6,851 (vs do-nothing $-7,425)
$242.5015d13 Nov 2026$13.105/5$6,550$13,100$12,08548%100%hist 89%66%+$1,672-$7,24721.3%0.6mo$-7,251 (vs do-nothing $-7,825)
$242.508d6 Nov 2026$12.255/5$6,125$22,969$21,95348%100%hist 89%65%+$2,842-$7,67222.6%0.6mo$-7,676 (vs do-nothing $-8,250)
$242.506d4 Nov 2026$12.005/5$6,000$30,000$28,98547%100%hist 89%65%+$3,817-$7,79723.0%0.6mo$-7,801 (vs do-nothing $-8,375)
$242.504d2 Nov 2026$11.805/5$5,900$44,250$43,23547%100%hist 89%65%+$5,436-$7,89723.3%0.6mo$-7,901 (vs do-nothing $-8,475)
97 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$3054d2 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$300$-71599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$198-$00.0%0.0mo$36 (vs do-nothing $-538)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.504d2 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$375$-64099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$244-$00.0%0.0mo$46 (vs do-nothing $-528)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3056d4 Nov 2026$0.115/5$55$275$-74099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$176-$00.0%0.0mo$51 (vs do-nothing $-523)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3058d6 Nov 2026$0.095/5$45$169$-84798%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$76-$00.0%0.0mo$41 (vs do-nothing $-533)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3004d2 Nov 2026$0.145/5$70$525$-49098%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$356-$00.0%0.0mo$66 (vs do-nothing $-508)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.506d4 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$250$-76598%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$120-$00.0%0.0mo$46 (vs do-nothing $-528)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30511d9 Nov 2026$0.165/5$80$218$-79798%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$139-$00.0%0.0mo$76 (vs do-nothing $-498)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.504d2 Nov 2026$0.175/5$85$638$-37898%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$417-$00.0%0.0mo$81 (vs do-nothing $-493)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3006d4 Nov 2026$0.165/5$80$400$-61598%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$232-$00.0%0.0mo$76 (vs do-nothing $-498)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.508d6 Nov 2026$0.175/5$85$319$-69798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$186-$00.0%0.0mo$81 (vs do-nothing $-493)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30513d11 Nov 2026$0.205/5$100$231$-78598%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$125-$00.0%0.0mo$96 (vs do-nothing $-478)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3008d6 Nov 2026$0.235/5$115$431$-58498%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$275-$00.0%0.0mo$111 (vs do-nothing $-463)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2954d2 Nov 2026$0.225/5$110$825$-19098%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$533-$00.0%0.0mo$106 (vs do-nothing $-468)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.506d4 Nov 2026$0.185/5$90$450$-56598%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$232-$00.0%0.0mo$86 (vs do-nothing $-488)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30515d13 Nov 2026$0.305/5$150$300$-71598%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$192-$00.0%0.0mo$146 (vs do-nothing $-428)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30011d9 Nov 2026$0.305/5$150$409$-60698%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$272-$00.0%0.0mo$146 (vs do-nothing $-428)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.508d6 Nov 2026$0.255/5$125$469$-54797%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$266-$00.0%0.0mo$121 (vs do-nothing $-453)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.504d2 Nov 2026$0.275/5$135$1,013$-397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$621-$00.0%0.0mo$131 (vs do-nothing $-443)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2956d4 Nov 2026$0.235/5$115$575$-44097%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$291-$00.0%0.0mo$111 (vs do-nothing $-463)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.5015d13 Nov 2026$0.365/5$180$360$-65597%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$224-$00.0%0.0mo$176 (vs do-nothing $-398)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30013d11 Nov 2026$0.395/5$195$450$-56597%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$279-$00.0%0.0mo$191 (vs do-nothing $-383)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2958d6 Nov 2026$0.345/5$170$638$-37897%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$373-$00.0%0.0mo$166 (vs do-nothing $-408)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30522d20 Nov 2026$0.495/5$245$334$-68197%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$203-$00.0%0.0mo$241 (vs do-nothing $-333)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.506d4 Nov 2026$0.345/5$170$850$-16597%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$477-$00.0%0.0mo$166 (vs do-nothing $-408)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2904d2 Nov 2026$0.375/5$185$1,388$37297%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$859-$00.0%0.0mo$181 (vs do-nothing $-393)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30015d13 Nov 2026$0.465/5$230$460$-55597%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$280-$00.0%0.0mo$226 (vs do-nothing $-348)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29511d9 Nov 2026$0.335/5$165$450$-56597%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$226-$00.0%0.0mo$161 (vs do-nothing $-413)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.5015d13 Nov 2026$0.485/5$240$480$-53596%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$274-$00.0%0.0mo$236 (vs do-nothing $-338)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.508d6 Nov 2026$0.385/5$190$712$-30396%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$366-$00.0%0.0mo$186 (vs do-nothing $-388)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29513d11 Nov 2026$0.275/5$135$312$-70496%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$67-$00.0%0.0mo$131 (vs do-nothing $-443)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2906d4 Nov 2026$0.355/5$175$875$-14096%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$384-$00.0%0.0mo$171 (vs do-nothing $-403)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.504d2 Nov 2026$0.455/5$225$1,688$67296%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$969-$00.0%0.0mo$221 (vs do-nothing $-353)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30022d20 Nov 2026$0.695/5$345$470$-54596%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$279-$00.0%0.0mo$341 (vs do-nothing $-233)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29515d13 Nov 2026$0.615/5$305$610$-40596%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$348-$00.0%0.0mo$301 (vs do-nothing $-273)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2908d6 Nov 2026$0.555/5$275$1,031$1695%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$579-$00.0%0.0mo$271 (vs do-nothing $-303)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.506d4 Nov 2026$0.555/5$275$1,375$36095%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$727-$00.0%0.0mo$271 (vs do-nothing $-303)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29011d9 Nov 2026$0.595/5$295$805$-21195%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$415-$00.0%0.0mo$291 (vs do-nothing $-283)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2854d2 Nov 2026$0.585/5$290$2,175$1,16095%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$1,198-$00.0%0.0mo$286 (vs do-nothing $-288)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.5015d13 Nov 2026$0.755/5$375$750$-26595%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$421-$00.0%0.0mo$371 (vs do-nothing $-203)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29013d11 Nov 2026$0.705/5$350$808$-20894%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$421-$00.0%0.0mo$346 (vs do-nothing $-228)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.508d6 Nov 2026$0.665/5$330$1,238$22294%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$649-$00.0%0.0mo$326 (vs do-nothing $-248)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29522d20 Nov 2026$0.885/5$440$600$-41594%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$317-$00.0%0.0mo$436 (vs do-nothing $-138)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2856d4 Nov 2026$0.675/5$335$1,675$66094%hist 95%12%hist 13%94%+$822-$00.0%0.0mo$331 (vs do-nothing $-243)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29015d13 Nov 2026$0.905/5$450$900$-11594%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$484-$00.0%0.0mo$446 (vs do-nothing $-128)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$282.504d2 Nov 2026$0.775/5$385$2,888$1,87294%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$1,562-$00.0%0.0mo$381 (vs do-nothing $-193)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2858d6 Nov 2026$0.825/5$410$1,538$52293%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$774-$00.0%0.0mo$406 (vs do-nothing $-168)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$282.506d4 Nov 2026$0.875/5$435$2,175$1,16093%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$1,058-$00.0%0.0mo$431 (vs do-nothing $-143)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.5015d13 Nov 2026$1.075/5$535$1,070$5593%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$544-$00.0%0.0mo$531 (vs do-nothing $-43)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29022d20 Nov 2026$1.225/5$610$832$-18492%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$420-$00.0%0.0mo$606 (vs do-nothing +$32)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28513d11 Nov 2026$1.065/5$530$1,223$20892%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$608-$00.0%0.0mo$526 (vs do-nothing $-48)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28511d9 Nov 2026$0.875/5$435$1,186$17192%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$453-$00.0%0.0mo$431 (vs do-nothing $-143)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2804d2 Nov 2026$0.955/5$475$3,562$2,54792%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$1,776-$00.0%0.0mo$471 (vs do-nothing $-103)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$282.508d6 Nov 2026$0.885/5$440$1,650$63592%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$664-$00.0%0.0mo$436 (vs do-nothing $-138)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28515d13 Nov 2026$1.255/5$625$1,250$23592%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$608-$00.0%0.0mo$621 (vs do-nothing +$47)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2806d4 Nov 2026$1.115/5$555$2,775$1,76091%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$1,319-$00.0%0.0mo$551 (vs do-nothing $-23)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2808d6 Nov 2026$1.255/5$625$2,344$1,32891%hist 95%19%hist 13%91%+$1,079-$00.0%0.0mo$621 (vs do-nothing +$47)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$277.504d2 Nov 2026$1.065/5$530$3,975$2,96091%hist 95%19%hist 13%91%+$1,588-$00.0%0.0mo$526 (vs do-nothing $-48)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28522d20 Nov 2026$1.655/5$825$1,125$11090%hist 95%20%hist 13%91%+$544-$00.0%0.0mo$821 (vs do-nothing +$247)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$282.5015d13 Nov 2026$1.475/5$735$1,470$45590%hist 95%20%hist 13%91%+$680-$00.0%0.0mo$731 (vs do-nothing +$157)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28011d9 Nov 2026$1.375/5$685$1,868$85390%hist 86%21%hist 23%91%+$786-$00.0%0.0mo$681 (vs do-nothing +$107)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$277.506d4 Nov 2026$1.365/5$680$3,400$2,38590%hist 86%21%hist 23%91%+$1,515-$00.0%0.0mo$676 (vs do-nothing +$102)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28013d11 Nov 2026$1.545/5$770$1,777$76190%hist 86%21%hist 23%91%+$808-$00.0%0.0mo$766 (vs do-nothing +$192)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$277.508d6 Nov 2026$1.505/5$750$2,812$1,79789%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$1,202-$00.0%0.0mo$746 (vs do-nothing +$172)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28015d13 Nov 2026$1.745/5$870$1,740$72589%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$770-$00.0%0.0mo$866 (vs do-nothing +$292)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2754d2 Nov 2026$1.485/5$740$5,550$4,53589%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$2,391-$00.0%0.0mo$736 (vs do-nothing +$162)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2756d4 Nov 2026$1.645/5$820$4,100$3,08588%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$1,679-$00.0%0.0mo$816 (vs do-nothing +$242)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28022d20 Nov 2026$2.215/5$1,105$1,507$49188%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$648-$00.0%0.0mo$1,101 (vs do-nothing +$527)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2758d6 Nov 2026$1.835/5$915$3,431$2,41687%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$1,395-$00.0%0.0mo$911 (vs do-nothing +$337)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$277.5015d13 Nov 2026$2.065/5$1,030$2,060$1,04587%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$844-$00.0%0.0mo$1,026 (vs do-nothing +$452)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27511d9 Nov 2026$1.955/5$975$2,659$1,64487%hist 86%28%hist 23%88%+$989-$00.0%0.0mo$971 (vs do-nothing +$397)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27513d11 Nov 2026$2.095/5$1,045$2,412$1,39686%hist 86%28%hist 23%88%+$913-$00.0%0.0mo$1,041 (vs do-nothing +$467)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$272.506d4 Nov 2026$2.005/5$1,000$5,000$3,98586%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$1,916-$00.0%0.0mo$996 (vs do-nothing +$422)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$277.5022d20 Nov 2026$2.485/5$1,240$1,691$67586%hist 86%29%hist 23%87%+$644-$00.0%0.0mo$1,236 (vs do-nothing +$662)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27515d13 Nov 2026$2.395/5$1,195$2,390$1,37585%hist 86%30%hist 30%87%+$914-$00.0%0.0mo$1,191 (vs do-nothing +$617)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$272.508d6 Nov 2026$2.225/5$1,110$4,163$3,14785%hist 86%30%hist 30%87%+$1,610-$00.0%0.0mo$1,106 (vs do-nothing +$532)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27522d20 Nov 2026$2.945/5$1,470$2,005$98984%hist 86%33%hist 30%86%+$776-$00.0%0.0mo$1,466 (vs do-nothing +$892)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2706d4 Nov 2026$2.445/5$1,220$6,100$5,08584%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$2,208-$00.0%0.0mo$1,169 (vs do-nothing +$595)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$272.5015d13 Nov 2026$2.735/5$1,365$2,730$1,71584%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$975-$00.0%0.0mo$1,361 (vs do-nothing +$787)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2708d6 Nov 2026$2.675/5$1,335$5,006$3,99183%hist 86%35%hist 30%85%+$1,832-$00.0%0.0mo$1,284 (vs do-nothing +$710)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27011d9 Nov 2026$2.675/5$1,335$3,641$2,62583%hist 86%35%hist 30%85%+$1,240-$00.0%0.0mo$1,284 (vs do-nothing +$710)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$272.5022d20 Nov 2026$3.355/5$1,675$2,284$1,26982%hist 86%37%hist 30%85%+$820-$00.0%0.0mo$1,671 (vs do-nothing +$1,097)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27013d11 Nov 2026$2.885/5$1,440$3,323$2,30882%hist 86%37%hist 30%85%+$1,064-$00.0%0.0mo$1,389 (vs do-nothing +$815)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27015d13 Nov 2026$3.305/5$1,650$3,300$2,28581%hist 86%38%hist 30%84%+$1,166-$00.0%0.0mo$1,599 (vs do-nothing +$1,025)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$267.508d6 Nov 2026$3.105/5$1,550$5,812$4,79781%hist 86%40%hist 30%84%+$1,899-$00.0%0.0mo$249 (vs do-nothing $-325)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27022d20 Nov 2026$3.855/5$1,925$2,625$1,61080%hist 86%41%hist 40%83%+$870-$00.0%0.0mo$1,874 (vs do-nothing +$1,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$267.5015d13 Nov 2026$3.755/5$1,875$3,750$2,73579%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$1,192-$00.0%0.0mo$574 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$267.5022d20 Nov 2026$4.455/5$2,225$3,034$2,01978%hist 83%46%hist 40%82%+$986-$00.0%0.0mo$924 (vs do-nothing +$350)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26511d9 Nov 2026$3.855/5$1,925$5,250$4,23578%hist 83%46%hist 40%81%+$1,572-$6221.8%0.0mo$-626 (vs do-nothing $-1,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26513d11 Nov 2026$4.155/5$2,075$4,788$3,77377%hist 83%47%hist 40%81%+$1,481-$4721.4%0.0mo$-476 (vs do-nothing $-1,050)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26515d13 Nov 2026$4.255/5$2,125$4,250$3,23577%hist 83%49%hist 40%81%+$1,186-$4221.2%0.0mo$-426 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26522d20 Nov 2026$5.055/5$2,525$3,443$2,42875%hist 83%51%hist 44%80%+$1,031-$220.1%0.0mo$-26 (vs do-nothing $-600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$262.5015d13 Nov 2026$5.055/5$2,525$5,050$4,03574%hist 83%55%hist 44%79%+$1,353-$1,2723.7%0.1mo$-1,276 (vs do-nothing $-1,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$262.5022d20 Nov 2026$5.755/5$2,875$3,920$2,90573%hist 83%56%hist 44%79%+$1,112-$9222.7%0.1mo$-926 (vs do-nothing $-1,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26015d13 Nov 2026$5.805/5$2,900$5,800$4,78571%hist 83%60%hist 54%77%+$1,544-$2,1476.3%0.2mo$-2,151 (vs do-nothing $-2,725)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26022d20 Nov 2026$6.555/5$3,275$4,466$3,45070%hist 83%62%hist 54%77%+$1,197-$1,7725.2%0.1mo$-1,776 (vs do-nothing $-2,350)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$257.5022d20 Nov 2026$7.305/5$3,650$4,977$3,96267%hist 66%68%hist 54%75%+$1,130-$2,6477.8%0.2mo$-2,651 (vs do-nothing $-3,225)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25522d20 Nov 2026$8.255/5$4,125$5,625$4,61064%hist 66%74%hist 68%74%+$1,288-$3,42210.1%0.3mo$-3,426 (vs do-nothing $-4,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-30 03:13