FORTRESS FIGHT: APP @ $497.04

SS: $588.00 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | 2026-06-29 23:15 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

APP @ $497.04 UNDERWATER $90.96 (15.5% below SS)

1 contracts (100 sh) | SS: $588.00 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $460 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $287.732/sh)

SP: $540 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $160.484/sh)

HP: $185 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.752/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,300	(ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100
Normal income ref	$6,245/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$56/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-11,182	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,123/mo

HEDGE COVER
$56/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,245/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $12,800

ML VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $48,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at SS $588 brings only $600/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below SS is warranted.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 63 (live) · RSI 51 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 44 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $576.42 (+16%) · daily UBB $591.89 · 1-wk expected move ±$48 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK — safest strike covering 50% of normal

Sell 1 × $528 10 Jul 2026 (11d, $11.80 bid / $13.10 mid)

Survival (stays ≤ $528)

69%

Breach risk

31%

POP (stays ≤ $540.60)

76%

EV / mo

+$769

Gross FIGHT income	$3,218/mo
vs 50% target ($3,123/mo)	+3%
vs normal target ($6,245/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,163/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$4,870
… as % of IC ($12,800)	38.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	10.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-11,312
… cuts bleed by	-$56/mo

✓ Highest-survival strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns $3,123/mo (max of the hedge cost and 50% of normal income), sized across your 1 contracts. IV 69% (strike).

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~31% · flat exit -$951 net · free roll-up ≈ +$13/wk

Challenge odds

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$951

Free roll-up

+$13/wk

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$680 @ 87%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.95/sh (~25% of the $11.80 collected) or spot ≥ $540.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $528)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free. Momentum override: two daily closes above $591.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $522.23	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $522-540.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $540.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$527.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,180	$-6,734	+$4,448	+$960
+2.5%	$540.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-139	$-6,638	+$4,544	-$359
+5%	$553.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,458	$-6,541	+$4,641	-$1,678
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (1.5σ)	$-4,870	$-6,292	+$4,890	-$5,040

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $30.14/sh now → $21.31 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$528	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$5.61/sh	+$561 cycle +$1,741	65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$540	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.18/sh	+$18 cycle +$1,198	69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$610	7 Aug 2026	34d left	+$0.03/sh	+$3 cycle +$1,183	78%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$680	7 Aug 2026	34d left	-$11.38/sh	-$1,138 cycle +$42	87%
budget: banked $1,180 debit $1,138 (96% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $877/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-FIGHT · clears SS ✓

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($528) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 76% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 0 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 1 calls lose.

📊 Income ladder — how much safety each dollar costs

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your contracts. Safest at the top. Going down the ladder buys income by selling a lower, more-often-breached strike. 🎯 is the primary (safest strike covering 50% of normal income). Cap @ SS is the recovery you mortgage only on a full V-bounce to SS.

Income rung	Trade	BB zone	Expiry	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC
cover hedge	1 × $640 / 11d	+UBB 11%	10 Jul 2026	98%	2%	$68	$13	-$0	0%
🎯 50% normal	1 × $528 / 11d	MBB-UBB	10 Jul 2026	69%	31%	$3,218	$3,163	-$4,870	38%
100% normal	1 × $498 / 11d	MBB-UBB	10 Jul 2026	50%	50%	$6,245	$6,190	-$6,760	53%

⚔ Face-off if challenged · 🛡 SAFEST vs 🎯 PRIMARY vs 💰 RICHEST

	🛡 SAFEST	🎯 PRIMARY	💰 RICHEST
Trade	1 × $640 / 11d	1 × $528 / 11d	1 × $498 / 11d
POP this week (from today)	98%	76%	66%
Challenge means spot ≥	$640 (+28.8%)	$528 (+6.1%)	$498 (+0.1%)
Odds of that challenge	~2%	~31%	~50%
Premium banked	$25	$1,180	$2,290
Flat exit net (mid-life)	-$2,561	-$951	+$280
Free roll-up speed	+$13/wk	+$13/wk	+$13/wk
Safest escape if challenged	$723 @ 75% 7 Aug 2026 · 34d left at challenge	$680 @ 87% 7 Aug 2026 · 34d left at challenge	$665 @ 90% 7 Aug 2026 · 34d left at challenge
Cycle cash floor (worst door)	-$2,561	-$951	+$280
Cap give-up if held to SS	-$0 (0.0% IC)	-$4,870 (38.0% IC)	-$6,760 (52.8% IC)

Same playbook engine run on each anchor. Higher strikes need a bigger rally before they are even threatened, and by then the fortress has gained more on the way up; the price is the cap give-up row if the rally keeps going. Cycle cash floor = banked premium plus the worst door in that anchor's roll menu (flat exit or safety roll), the most the whole challenged cycle can cost in cash. Estimates from today's chain, mid-life timing.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 1 contract at $528 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 69%, breach 31%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,123/mo); it brings $3,218/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $498/11d for $6,245/mo, but breach risk rises to 50% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $640/11d (98% survival, $68/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $4,870 (38% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $588, recoverable in 0.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-11,312 and cuts bleed by $56/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $588.00 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,182

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,760

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $528): -$4,870

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,292 (+$4,890 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,040, the opportunity cost of earning $3,218/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $576.42 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,712, position total $-6,377 (+$4,805 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 43 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.073 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,760 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,252

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$528	11d	10 Jul 2026	$11.80	1/1	$3,218	$3,163	69%	76%	+$769	-$4,870	38.0%	$-6,292 (vs do-nothing $-5,040)
$525	11d	10 Jul 2026	$12.20	1/1	$3,327	$3,272	68%	75%	+$689	-$5,080	39.7%	$-6,502 (vs do-nothing $-5,250)
$522	11d	10 Jul 2026	$13.30	1/1	$3,627	$3,572	66%	74%	+$789	-$5,220	40.8%	$-6,642 (vs do-nothing $-5,390)
$520	11d	10 Jul 2026	$14.40	1/1	$3,927	$3,872	65%	73%	+$877	-$5,360	41.9%	$-6,782 (vs do-nothing $-5,530)
$518	11d	10 Jul 2026	$15.00	1/1	$4,091	$4,035	63%	72%	+$818	-$5,550	43.4%	$-6,972 (vs do-nothing $-5,720)
$520	18d	17 Jul 2026	$20.20	1/1	$3,367	$3,311	62%	72%	+$667	-$4,780	37.3%	$-6,202 (vs do-nothing $-4,950)
$515	11d	10 Jul 2026	$15.90	1/1	$4,336	$4,281	62%	71%	+$827	-$5,710	44.6%	$-7,132 (vs do-nothing $-5,880)
$512	11d	10 Jul 2026	$16.90	1/1	$4,609	$4,554	60%	71%	+$852	-$5,860	45.8%	$-7,282 (vs do-nothing $-6,030)
$515	18d	17 Jul 2026	$21.90	1/1	$3,650	$3,594	59%	70%	+$649	-$5,110	39.9%	$-6,532 (vs do-nothing $-5,280)
$510	11d	10 Jul 2026	$17.90	1/1	$4,882	$4,826	58%	70%	+$864	-$6,010	47.0%	$-7,432 (vs do-nothing $-6,180)
$515	25d	24 Jul 2026	$27.60	1/1	$3,312	$3,256	58%	70%	+$638	-$4,540	35.5%	$-5,962 (vs do-nothing $-4,710)
$520	39d	7 Aug 2026	$41.00	1/1	$3,154	$3,098	57%	69%	+$603	-$2,700	21.1%	$-4,122 (vs do-nothing $-2,870)
$508	11d	10 Jul 2026	$19.00	1/1	$5,182	$5,126	57%	69%	+$890	-$6,150	48.0%	$-7,572 (vs do-nothing $-6,320)

Show 30 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$510	18d	17 Jul 2026	$24.30	1/1	$4,050	$3,994	57%	69%	+$722	-$5,370	42.0%	$-6,792 (vs do-nothing $-5,540)
$510	25d	24 Jul 2026	$29.50	1/1	$3,540	$3,484	56%	69%	+$624	-$4,850	37.9%	$-6,272 (vs do-nothing $-5,020)
$515	39d	7 Aug 2026	$42.40	1/1	$3,262	$3,206	56%	68%	+$560	-$3,060	23.9%	$-4,482 (vs do-nothing $-3,230)
$505	11d	10 Jul 2026	$20.10	1/1	$5,482	$5,426	55%	68%	+$903	-$6,290	49.1%	$-7,712 (vs do-nothing $-6,460)
$510	32d	31 Jul 2026	$33.80	1/1	$3,169	$3,113	55%	68%	+$563	-$4,420	34.5%	$-5,842 (vs do-nothing $-4,590)
$505	18d	17 Jul 2026	$26.50	1/1	$4,417	$4,361	54%	68%	+$737	-$5,650	44.1%	$-7,072 (vs do-nothing $-5,820)
$510	39d	7 Aug 2026	$44.00	1/1	$3,385	$3,329	54%	67%	+$524	-$3,400	26.6%	$-4,822 (vs do-nothing $-3,570)
$502	11d	10 Jul 2026	$21.20	1/1	$5,782	$5,726	54%	67%	+$903	-$6,430	50.2%	$-7,852 (vs do-nothing $-6,600)
$505	25d	24 Jul 2026	$31.60	1/1	$3,792	$3,736	54%	68%	+$618	-$5,140	40.2%	$-6,562 (vs do-nothing $-5,310)
$505	32d	31 Jul 2026	$35.20	1/1	$3,300	$3,244	53%	67%	+$493	-$4,780	37.3%	$-6,202 (vs do-nothing $-4,950)
$505	39d	7 Aug 2026	$47.20	1/1	$3,631	$3,575	52%	67%	+$604	-$3,580	28.0%	$-5,002 (vs do-nothing $-3,750)
$500	11d	10 Jul 2026	$22.40	1/1	$6,109	$6,054	52%	66%	+$916	-$6,560	51.2%	$-7,982 (vs do-nothing $-6,730)
$500	18d	17 Jul 2026	$28.90	1/1	$4,817	$4,761	52%	66%	+$758	-$5,910	46.2%	$-7,332 (vs do-nothing $-6,080)
$500	25d	24 Jul 2026	$34.20	1/1	$4,104	$4,048	51%	66%	+$656	-$5,380	42.0%	$-6,802 (vs do-nothing $-5,550)
$500	32d	31 Jul 2026	$38.40	1/1	$3,600	$3,544	51%	66%	+$579	-$4,960	38.8%	$-6,382 (vs do-nothing $-5,130)
$500	39d	7 Aug 2026	$49.00	1/1	$3,769	$3,714	51%	66%	+$568	-$3,900	30.5%	$-5,322 (vs do-nothing $-4,070)
$498	11d	10 Jul 2026	$22.90	1/1	$6,245	$6,190	50%	66%	+$726	-$6,760	52.8%	$-8,182 (vs do-nothing $-6,930)
$495	39d	7 Aug 2026	$51.60	1/1	$3,969	$3,914	49%	65%	+$587	-$4,140	32.3%	$-5,562 (vs do-nothing $-4,310)
$495	32d	31 Jul 2026	$40.80	1/1	$3,825	$3,769	49%	65%	+$578	-$5,220	40.8%	$-6,642 (vs do-nothing $-5,390)
$495	25d	24 Jul 2026	$36.10	1/1	$4,332	$4,276	49%	65%	+$593	-$5,690	44.5%	$-7,112 (vs do-nothing $-5,860)
$495	18d	17 Jul 2026	$31.50	1/1	$5,250	$5,194	49%	65%	+$787	-$6,150	48.0%	$-7,572 (vs do-nothing $-6,320)
$495	11d	10 Jul 2026	$24.20	1/1	$6,600	$6,544	49%	66%	+$740	-$6,880	53.8%	$-8,302 (vs do-nothing $-7,050)
$490	39d	7 Aug 2026	$54.00	1/1	$4,154	$4,098	48%	65%	+$582	-$4,400	34.4%	$-5,822 (vs do-nothing $-4,570)
$490	32d	31 Jul 2026	$43.00	1/1	$4,031	$3,976	47%	64%	+$547	-$5,500	43.0%	$-6,922 (vs do-nothing $-5,670)
$492	11d	10 Jul 2026	$25.00	1/1	$6,818	$6,763	47%	64%	+$604	-$7,050	55.1%	$-8,472 (vs do-nothing $-7,220)
$490	25d	24 Jul 2026	$37.50	1/1	$4,500	$4,444	47%	64%	+$454	-$6,050	47.3%	$-7,472 (vs do-nothing $-6,220)
$490	18d	17 Jul 2026	$32.20	1/1	$5,367	$5,311	46%	64%	+$472	-$6,580	51.4%	$-8,002 (vs do-nothing $-6,750)
$490	11d	10 Jul 2026	$27.00	1/1	$7,364	$7,308	45%	64%	+$782	-$7,100	55.5%	$-8,522 (vs do-nothing $-7,270)
$488	18d	17 Jul 2026	$34.30	1/1	$5,717	$5,661	45%	63%	+$596	-$6,620	51.7%	$-8,042 (vs do-nothing $-6,790)
$488	11d	10 Jul 2026	$28.00	1/1	$7,636	$7,581	44%	63%	+$673	-$7,250	56.6%	$-8,672 (vs do-nothing $-7,420)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v5.0 | 2026-06-29 23:15