1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $603.13 (banked floor $599.19) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $4,871/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $36/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-16,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 1 × $490 | 90% | $2,500 | $619 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 1 × $485 | 77% | $2,670 | $285 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $582.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 31.3% | 99+% | 0% | $5 | $50 | -$2,450 | $2,058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $582.50 31.3% OTM over spot $443.75 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.17 mid) = $5 credit for the 3d cycle → $50/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $582.50) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $582.67) 99+% EV / mo +$50 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.5] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-253 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,774 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $614 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $25.16/sh now → $17.79 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $582.50 is $21 below CC-SS $603.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $582.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $582)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $564.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,166 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $582.50): -$2,058 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,692 (+$15,108 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,142 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-550, the opportunity cost of earning $50/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.64 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9, position total $-1,850 (+$14,950 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 1 × $497.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 12.1% | 93% | 15% | $170 | $1,700 | -$800 | $10,393 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $497.50 12.1% OTM over spot $443.75 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $2.05 mid) = $170 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $497.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $499.55) 93% EV / mo +$1,048 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.6] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,792 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,350 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $539 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $21.49/sh now → $15.20 mid-life (likely $14.46–$29.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 264 simulated challenges: the $498 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $511 (overshoots $13.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $497.50 is $106 below CC-SS $603.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.70 collected) or spot ≥ $499.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $498)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $564.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,166 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $497.50): -$10,393 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,027 (+$6,773 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,142 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,885, the opportunity cost of earning $1,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.64 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,344, position total $-10,185 (+$6,615 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $492.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.0% | 91% | 19% | $210 | $2,100 | -$400 | $10,853 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $492.50 11.0% OTM over spot $443.75 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $2.90 mid) = $210 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $492.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $495.40) 92% EV / mo +$1,205 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-3.1] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,225 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,294 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $536 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $21.27/sh now → $15.04 mid-life (likely $14.27–$26.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 345 simulated challenges: the $492 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $505 (overshoots $12.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $492.50 is $111 below CC-SS $603.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $495.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $492)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $564.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,166 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $492.50): -$10,853 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,487 (+$6,313 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,142 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,345, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.64 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,804, position total $-10,645 (+$6,155 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $490 | 17 Jul | 3d | 10.4% | 90% | 13% | $250 | $2,500 | — | $11,063 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $490 10.4% OTM over spot $443.75 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $3.20 mid) = $250 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $490) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $493.20) 91% EV / mo +$1,454 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,945 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,247 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $536 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $21.17/sh now → $14.97 mid-life (likely $14.49–$27.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 377 simulated challenges: the $490 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $503 (overshoots $12.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $490 is $113 below CC-SS $603.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.50 collected) or spot ≥ $493.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $490)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $564.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,166 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $490): -$11,063 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,697 (+$6,103 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,142 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,555, the opportunity cost of earning $2,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.64 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,014, position total $-10,855 (+$5,945 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $475 | 17 Jul | 3d | 7.0% | 81% | 38% | $500 | $5,000 | +$2,500 | $12,313 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $475 7.0% OTM over spot $443.75 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $5.25 mid) = $500 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $475) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $480.25) 85% EV / mo +$2,437 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.0] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~10.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,849 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$951 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $531 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $20.52/sh now → $14.51 mid-life (likely $15.52–$27.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 715 simulated challenges: the $475 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $487 (overshoots $11.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $475 is $128 below CC-SS $603.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.25/sh (~25% of the $5.00 collected) or spot ≥ $480.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $475)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $564.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,166 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $475): -$12,313 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,947 (+$4,853 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,142 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,805, the opportunity cost of earning $5,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.64 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,264, position total $-12,105 (+$4,695 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $615 | 24 Jul | 10d | 38.6% | 99% | 1% | $15 | $45 | -$2,625 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $615 38.6% OTM over spot $443.75 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.48 mid) = $15 credit for the 10d cycle → $45/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $615) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $615.48) 99% EV / mo +$35 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-4.5] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,681 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $615 @ 66% POP 52% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $38.11/sh now → $26.96 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$26.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $615 is at/above CC-SS $603.13: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $615.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $615)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $564.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,166 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $615): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $366 (+$17,166 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,142 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,508, the opportunity cost of earning $45/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.64 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-1,841 (+$14,959 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $520 | 24 Jul | 10d | 17.2% | 90% | 21% | $340 | $1,020 | -$1,650 | $7,973 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $520 17.2% OTM over spot $443.75 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.40 mid) = $340 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $520) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $524.40) 91% EV / mo +$482 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.8-4.2] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,324 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,940 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $531 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $32.23/sh now → $22.80 mid-life (likely $19.78–$33.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 467 simulated challenges: the $520 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $533 (overshoots $13.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $520 is $83 below CC-SS $603.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $524.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $520)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $564.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,166 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $520): -$7,973 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,607 (+$9,193 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,142 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,465, the opportunity cost of earning $1,020/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.64 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,924, position total $-7,765 (+$9,035 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $502.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 13.2% | 84% | 33% | $570 | $1,710 | -$960 | $9,493 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $502.50 13.2% OTM over spot $443.75 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $6.60 mid) = $570 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,710/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $502.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $509.10) 86% EV / mo +$615 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.7] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,037 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,633 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $524 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $31.14/sh now → $22.03 mid-life (likely $21.79–$33.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$16.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 760 simulated challenges: the $502 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $515 (overshoots $12.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $502.50 is $101 below CC-SS $603.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.43/sh (~25% of the $5.70 collected) or spot ≥ $509.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $502)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $564.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,166 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $502.50): -$9,493 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,127 (+$7,673 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,142 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,985, the opportunity cost of earning $1,710/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.64 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,444, position total $-9,285 (+$7,515 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $485 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.3% | 77% | 37% | $890 | $2,670 | — | $10,923 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $485 9.3% OTM over spot $443.75 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $9.95 mid) = $890 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,670/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $485) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $494.95) 81% EV / mo +$738 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,020 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,236 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $516 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $30.06/sh now → $21.26 mid-life (likely $23.10–$34.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,122 simulated challenges: the $485 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $497 (overshoots $11.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $485 is $118 below CC-SS $603.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.23/sh (~25% of the $8.90 collected) or spot ≥ $494.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $485)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $564.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,166 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $485): -$10,923 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,557 (+$6,243 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,142 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,415, the opportunity cost of earning $2,670/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.64 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,874, position total $-10,715 (+$6,085 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $457.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 3.1% | 62% | 80% | $1,680 | $5,040 | +$2,370 | $12,883 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $457.50 3.1% OTM over spot $443.75 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $19.50 mid) = $1,680 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $457.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $477.00) 73% EV / mo +$888 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.1-3.3] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~13.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,545 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$326 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $539 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $28.35/sh now → $20.06 mid-life (likely $26.92–$35.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $16.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,973 simulated challenges: the $458 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $469 (overshoots $11.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $457.50 is $146 below CC-SS $603.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.20/sh (~25% of the $16.80 collected) or spot ≥ $477.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $458)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $564.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,166 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $457.50): -$12,883 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,517 (+$4,283 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,142 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,375, the opportunity cost of earning $5,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.64 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,834, position total $-12,675 (+$4,125 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 55 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.077 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,166 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,142
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $490 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 1/1 | $2,500 | $2,464 | 90% | 91% | +$1,454 | -$11,063 | 86.4% | $-10,697 (vs do-nothing $-9,555) |
| $487.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 1/1 | $2,650 | $2,614 | 89% | 90% | +$1,429 | -$11,298 | 88.3% | $-10,932 (vs do-nothing $-9,790) |
| $485 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 1/1 | $3,100 | $3,064 | 87% | 89% | +$1,678 | -$11,503 | 89.9% | $-11,137 (vs do-nothing $-9,995) |
| $482.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 1/1 | $3,400 | $3,364 | 86% | 88% | +$1,746 | -$11,723 | 91.6% | $-11,357 (vs do-nothing $-10,215) |
| $480 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 1/1 | $4,000 | $3,964 | 85% | 87% | +$2,082 | -$11,913 | 93.1% | $-11,547 (vs do-nothing $-10,405) |
| $477.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 1/1 | $4,300 | $4,264 | 83% | 86% | +$2,080 | -$12,133 | 94.8% | $-11,767 (vs do-nothing $-10,625) |
| $475 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 1/1 | $5,000 | $4,964 | 81% | 85% | +$2,437 | -$12,313 | 96.2% | $-11,947 (vs do-nothing $-10,805) |
| $472.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 1/1 | $5,200 | $5,164 | 80% | 84% | +$2,248 | -$12,543 | 98.0% | $-12,177 (vs do-nothing $-11,035) |
| $470 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 1/1 | $5,200 | $5,164 | 78% | 82% | +$1,811 | -$12,793 | 99.9% | $-12,427 (vs do-nothing $-11,285) |
| $485 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.90 | 1/1 | $2,670 | $2,634 | 77% | 81% | +$738 | -$10,923 | 85.3% | $-10,557 (vs do-nothing $-9,415) |
| $482.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.90 | 1/1 | $2,670 | $2,634 | 76% | 80% | +$584 | -$11,173 | 87.3% | $-10,807 (vs do-nothing $-9,665) |
| $467.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 1/1 | $6,300 | $6,264 | 76% | 82% | +$2,419 | -$12,933 | 101.0% | $-12,567 (vs do-nothing $-11,425) |
| $480 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.70 | 1/1 | $2,910 | $2,874 | 74% | 80% | +$659 | -$11,343 | 88.6% | $-10,977 (vs do-nothing $-9,835) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $465 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 1/1 | $6,500 | $6,464 | 74% | 80% | +$2,070 | -$13,163 | 102.8% | $-12,797 (vs do-nothing $-11,655) |
| $477.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.40 | 1/1 | $3,120 | $3,084 | 73% | 79% | +$694 | -$11,523 | 90.0% | $-11,157 (vs do-nothing $-10,015) |
| $485 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.90 | 1/1 | $2,453 | $2,417 | 73% | 78% | +$434 | -$10,423 | 81.4% | $-10,057 (vs do-nothing $-8,915) |
| $475 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.50 | 1/1 | $3,450 | $3,414 | 72% | 78% | +$839 | -$11,663 | 91.1% | $-11,297 (vs do-nothing $-10,155) |
| $462.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 1/1 | $7,600 | $7,564 | 71% | 79% | +$2,559 | -$13,303 | 103.9% | $-12,937 (vs do-nothing $-11,795) |
| $472.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.10 | 1/1 | $3,630 | $3,594 | 71% | 78% | +$944 | -$11,853 | 92.6% | $-11,487 (vs do-nothing $-10,345) |
| $480 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.40 | 1/1 | $2,718 | $2,681 | 71% | 77% | +$469 | -$10,773 | 84.2% | $-10,407 (vs do-nothing $-9,265) |
| $470 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.00 | 1/1 | $3,900 | $3,864 | 69% | 77% | +$1,003 | -$12,013 | 93.9% | $-11,647 (vs do-nothing $-10,505) |
| $460 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.40 | 1/1 | $8,400 | $8,364 | 69% | 77% | +$2,681 | -$13,473 | 105.3% | $-13,107 (vs do-nothing $-11,965) |
| $475 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.70 | 1/1 | $2,947 | $2,911 | 68% | 76% | +$447 | -$11,143 | 87.1% | $-10,777 (vs do-nothing $-9,635) |
| $467.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.20 | 1/1 | $3,960 | $3,924 | 68% | 76% | +$840 | -$12,243 | 95.6% | $-11,877 (vs do-nothing $-10,735) |
| $457.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.90 | 1/1 | $8,900 | $8,864 | 66% | 76% | +$2,434 | -$13,673 | 106.8% | $-13,307 (vs do-nothing $-12,165) |
| $465 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.30 | 1/1 | $4,290 | $4,254 | 66% | 76% | +$933 | -$12,383 | 96.7% | $-12,017 (vs do-nothing $-10,875) |
| $470 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $18.20 | 1/1 | $3,212 | $3,175 | 66% | 74% | +$440 | -$11,493 | 89.8% | $-11,127 (vs do-nothing $-9,985) |
| $462.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.30 | 1/1 | $4,590 | $4,554 | 65% | 75% | +$982 | -$12,533 | 97.9% | $-12,167 (vs do-nothing $-11,025) |
| $465 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $19.80 | 1/1 | $3,494 | $3,458 | 64% | 74% | +$427 | -$11,833 | 92.4% | $-11,467 (vs do-nothing $-10,325) |
| $455 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.90 | 1/1 | $9,900 | $9,864 | 64% | 76% | +$2,613 | -$13,823 | 108.0% | $-13,457 (vs do-nothing $-12,315) |
| $460 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.80 | 1/1 | $4,740 | $4,704 | 63% | 74% | +$867 | -$12,733 | 99.5% | $-12,367 (vs do-nothing $-11,225) |
| $457.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.80 | 1/1 | $5,040 | $5,004 | 62% | 73% | +$888 | -$12,883 | 100.6% | $-12,517 (vs do-nothing $-11,375) |
| $460 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $22.00 | 1/1 | $3,882 | $3,846 | 62% | 72% | +$496 | -$12,113 | 94.6% | $-11,747 (vs do-nothing $-10,605) |
| $452.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $10.80 | 1/1 | $10,800 | $10,764 | 61% | 74% | +$2,616 | -$13,983 | 109.2% | $-13,617 (vs do-nothing $-12,475) |
| $455 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $18.20 | 1/1 | $5,460 | $5,424 | 60% | 72% | +$1,015 | -$12,993 | 101.5% | $-12,627 (vs do-nothing $-11,485) |
| $455 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $24.00 | 1/1 | $4,235 | $4,199 | 59% | 71% | +$506 | -$12,413 | 97.0% | $-12,047 (vs do-nothing $-10,905) |
| $450 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $11.90 | 1/1 | $11,900 | $11,864 | 59% | 72% | +$2,739 | -$14,123 | 110.3% | $-13,757 (vs do-nothing $-12,615) |
| $452.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $18.70 | 1/1 | $5,610 | $5,574 | 58% | 71% | +$856 | -$13,193 | 103.1% | $-12,827 (vs do-nothing $-11,685) |
| $450 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $19.10 | 1/1 | $5,730 | $5,694 | 57% | 70% | +$653 | -$13,403 | 104.7% | $-13,037 (vs do-nothing $-11,895) |
| $450 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $25.80 | 1/1 | $4,553 | $4,517 | 57% | 70% | +$569 | -$12,733 | 99.5% | $-12,367 (vs do-nothing $-11,225) |
| $447.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $12.50 | 1/1 | $12,500 | $12,464 | 56% | 71% | +$2,280 | -$14,313 | 111.8% | $-13,947 (vs do-nothing $-12,805) |
| $447.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $20.80 | 1/1 | $6,240 | $6,204 | 55% | 70% | +$824 | -$13,483 | 105.3% | $-13,117 (vs do-nothing $-11,975) |
| $445 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $27.60 | 1/1 | $4,871 | $4,834 | 54% | 69% | +$377 | -$13,053 | 102.0% | $-12,687 (vs do-nothing $-11,545) |
| $445 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $22.40 | 1/1 | $6,720 | $6,684 | 53% | 68% | +$950 | -$13,573 | 106.0% | $-13,207 (vs do-nothing $-12,065) |
| $445 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $13.50 | 1/1 | $13,500 | $13,464 | 53% | 69% | +$2,138 | -$14,463 | 113.0% | $-14,097 (vs do-nothing $-12,955) |
| $442.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $23.10 | 1/1 | $6,930 | $6,894 | 52% | 68% | +$790 | -$13,753 | 107.4% | $-13,387 (vs do-nothing $-12,245) |
| $440 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $30.50 | 1/1 | $5,382 | $5,346 | 52% | 68% | +$466 | -$13,263 | 103.6% | $-12,897 (vs do-nothing $-11,755) |
| $442.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $14.80 | 1/1 | $14,800 | $14,764 | 50% | 69% | +$2,212 | -$14,583 | 113.9% | $-14,217 (vs do-nothing $-13,075) |
| $440 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $24.20 | 1/1 | $7,260 | $7,224 | 50% | 67% | +$735 | -$13,893 | 108.5% | $-13,527 (vs do-nothing $-12,385) |
| $435 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $33.00 | 1/1 | $5,824 | $5,787 | 49% | 67% | +$458 | -$13,513 | 105.6% | $-13,147 (vs do-nothing $-12,005) |
| $437.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $25.50 | 1/1 | $7,650 | $7,614 | 48% | 66% | +$725 | -$14,013 | 109.5% | $-13,647 (vs do-nothing $-12,505) |
| $440 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $16.20 | 1/1 | $16,200 | $16,164 | 47% | 68% | +$2,300 | -$14,693 | 114.8% | $-14,327 (vs do-nothing $-13,185) |
| $435 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $27.00 | 1/1 | $8,100 | $8,064 | 47% | 66% | +$759 | -$14,113 | 110.3% | $-13,747 (vs do-nothing $-12,605) |
| $437.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $17.30 | 1/1 | $17,300 | $17,264 | 45% | 66% | +$2,004 | -$14,833 | 115.9% | $-14,467 (vs do-nothing $-13,325) |
| $435 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $18.70 | 1/1 | $18,700 | $18,664 | 42% | 65% | +$1,923 | -$14,943 | 116.7% | $-14,577 (vs do-nothing $-13,435) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.