1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $611.11 (banked floor $607.17) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $5,029/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $36/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,147 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 1 × $475 | 84% | $3,000 | $181 |
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 1 × $482.50 | 76% | $2,610 | $392 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $605 | 17 Jul | 3d | 37.8% | 99+% | 0% | $5 | $50 | -$2,950 | $606 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $605 37.8% OTM over spot $439.03 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.60 mid) = $5 credit for the 3d cycle → $50/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $605) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $605.60) 99+% EV / mo +$47 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.6] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,747 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $636 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $24.77/sh now → $17.52 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $605 is $6 below CC-SS $611.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $605.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $605)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $565.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,147 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,585 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $605): -$606 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-169 (+$17,979 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,385, the opportunity cost of earning $50/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,616 (+$15,532 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $490 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.6% | 91% | 18% | $145 | $1,450 | -$1,550 | $11,966 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $490 11.6% OTM over spot $439.03 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $2.23 mid) = $145 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $490) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $492.23) 92% EV / mo +$559 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.1] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,110 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,274 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $531 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $20.06/sh now → $14.19 mid-life (likely $12.94–$25.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $490 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $503 (overshoots $12.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $490 is $121 below CC-SS $611.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $492.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $490)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $565.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,147 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,585 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $490): -$11,966 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,529 (+$6,619 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,975, the opportunity cost of earning $1,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,139, position total $-11,755 (+$6,393 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 1 × $485 | 17 Jul | 3d | 10.5% | 89% | 22% | $210 | $2,100 | -$900 | $12,401 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $485 10.5% OTM over spot $439.03 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $2.70 mid) = $210 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $485) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $487.70) 90% EV / mo +$907 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.1] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~7.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,901 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,194 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $531 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $19.86/sh now → $14.04 mid-life (likely $13.27–$26.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 415 simulated challenges: the $485 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $498 (overshoots $12.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $485 is $126 below CC-SS $611.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $487.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $485)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $565.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,147 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,585 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $485): -$12,401 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,964 (+$6,184 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,410, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,574, position total $-12,190 (+$5,958 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $475 | 17 Jul | 3d | 8.2% | 84% | 20% | $300 | $3,000 | — | $13,311 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $475 8.2% OTM over spot $439.03 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $4.15 mid) = $300 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $475) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $479.15) 86% EV / mo +$887 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~10.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,863 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,075 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $528 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $19.45/sh now → $13.75 mid-life (likely $14.06–$24.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 615 simulated challenges: the $475 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $487 (overshoots $11.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $475 is $136 below CC-SS $611.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $479.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $475)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $565.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,147 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,585 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $475): -$13,311 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,874 (+$5,274 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,320, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,484, position total $-13,100 (+$5,048 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $462.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 5.3% | 75% | 51% | $660 | $6,600 | +$3,600 | $14,201 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $462.50 5.3% OTM over spot $439.03 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $7.55 mid) = $660 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $462.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $470.05) 81% EV / mo +$2,444 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.9-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~14.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,270 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$679 Free roll-up +$18/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $533 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $18.94/sh now → $13.39 mid-life (likely $15.39–$26.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,058 simulated challenges: the $462 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $475 (overshoots $12.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $462.50 is $149 below CC-SS $611.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.65/sh (~25% of the $6.60 collected) or spot ≥ $470.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $462)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $565.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,147 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,585 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $462.50): -$14,201 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,764 (+$4,384 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,210, the opportunity cost of earning $6,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,374, position total $-13,990 (+$4,158 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $620 | 24 Jul | 10d | 41.2% | 99% | 2% | $20 | $60 | -$2,550 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $620 41.2% OTM over spot $439.03 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.40 mid) = $20 credit for the 10d cycle → $60/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $620) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $620.40) 99% EV / mo +$36 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-4.3] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $36 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,731 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $621 @ 66% POP 53% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $38.90/sh now → $27.51 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$27.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $620 is at/above CC-SS $611.11: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $620.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $620)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $565.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,147 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,585 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $620): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $437 (+$18,585 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,991, the opportunity cost of earning $60/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,616 (+$15,532 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $515 | 24 Jul | 10d | 17.3% | 90% | 21% | $310 | $930 | -$1,680 | $9,301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $515 17.3% OTM over spot $439.03 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.35 mid) = $310 credit for the 10d cycle → $930/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $515) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $519.35) 91% EV / mo +$386 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-3.6] median · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,144 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,975 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $526 @ 69% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $32.31/sh now → $22.85 mid-life (likely $19.18–$32.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 455 simulated challenges: the $515 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $527 (overshoots $11.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $515 is $96 below CC-SS $611.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $519.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $515)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $565.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,147 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,585 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $515): -$9,301 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,864 (+$9,284 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,310, the opportunity cost of earning $930/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,474, position total $-9,090 (+$9,058 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 1 × $495 | 24 Jul | 10d | 12.7% | 81% | 40% | $580 | $1,740 | -$870 | $11,031 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $495 12.7% OTM over spot $439.03 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $7.40 mid) = $580 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $495) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $502.40) 84% EV / mo +$85 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,204 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,617 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $521 @ 73% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $31.05/sh now → $21.97 mid-life (likely $21.53–$32.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$16.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 812 simulated challenges: the $495 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $507 (overshoots $11.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $495 is $116 below CC-SS $611.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.45/sh (~25% of the $5.80 collected) or spot ≥ $502.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $495)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $565.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,147 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,585 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $495): -$11,031 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,594 (+$7,554 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,040, the opportunity cost of earning $1,740/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,204, position total $-10,820 (+$7,328 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $482.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.9% | 76% | 35% | $870 | $2,610 | — | $11,991 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $482.50 9.9% OTM over spot $439.03 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $9.90 mid) = $870 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $482.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $492.40) 80% EV / mo +$269 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,193 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,271 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $513 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $30.27/sh now → $21.41 mid-life (likely $22.95–$34.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,036 simulated challenges: the $482 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $495 (overshoots $12.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $482.50 is $129 below CC-SS $611.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.17/sh (~25% of the $8.70 collected) or spot ≥ $492.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $482)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $565.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,147 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,585 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $482.50): -$11,991 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,554 (+$6,594 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,000, the opportunity cost of earning $2,610/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,164, position total $-11,780 (+$6,368 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $450 | 24 Jul | 10d | 2.5% | 60% | 84% | $1,720 | $5,160 | +$2,550 | $14,391 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $450 2.5% OTM over spot $439.03 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $20.10 mid) = $1,720 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $450) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $470.10) 72% EV / mo +$711 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.1-3.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~16.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,409 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$277 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $531 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $28.23/sh now → $19.97 mid-life (likely $26.61–$35.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $17.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,054 simulated challenges: the $450 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $461 (overshoots $11.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $450 is $161 below CC-SS $611.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.30/sh (~25% of the $17.20 collected) or spot ≥ $470.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $450)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $565.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,147 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,585 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $450): -$14,391 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,954 (+$4,194 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,400, the opportunity cost of earning $5,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $582.84 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,564, position total $-14,180 (+$3,968 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 47 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.080 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,585 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,554
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $475 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 1/1 | $3,000 | $2,964 | 84% | 86% | +$887 | -$13,311 | 104.0% | $-12,874 (vs do-nothing $-11,320) |
| $472.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 1/1 | $3,100 | $3,064 | 82% | 85% | +$671 | -$13,551 | 105.9% | $-13,114 (vs do-nothing $-11,560) |
| $470 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 1/1 | $3,300 | $3,264 | 81% | 84% | +$513 | -$13,781 | 107.7% | $-13,344 (vs do-nothing $-11,790) |
| $467.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 1/1 | $3,600 | $3,564 | 79% | 83% | +$408 | -$14,001 | 109.4% | $-13,564 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $465 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 1/1 | $4,900 | $4,864 | 77% | 82% | +$1,253 | -$14,121 | 110.3% | $-13,684 (vs do-nothing $-12,130) |
| $482.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.70 | 1/1 | $2,610 | $2,574 | 76% | 80% | +$269 | -$11,991 | 93.7% | $-11,554 (vs do-nothing $-10,000) |
| $462.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 1/1 | $6,600 | $6,564 | 75% | 81% | +$2,444 | -$14,201 | 110.9% | $-13,764 (vs do-nothing $-12,210) |
| $477.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.70 | 1/1 | $2,610 | $2,574 | 74% | 78% | $-65 | -$12,491 | 97.6% | $-12,054 (vs do-nothing $-10,500) |
| $460 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 1/1 | $5,300 | $5,264 | 73% | 79% | +$576 | -$14,581 | 113.9% | $-14,144 (vs do-nothing $-12,590) |
| $475 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.20 | 1/1 | $2,760 | $2,724 | 73% | 78% | $-96 | -$12,691 | 99.1% | $-12,254 (vs do-nothing $-10,700) |
| $472.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.90 | 1/1 | $2,970 | $2,934 | 71% | 77% | $-77 | -$12,871 | 100.6% | $-12,434 (vs do-nothing $-10,880) |
| $475 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.20 | 1/1 | $2,682 | $2,646 | 71% | 78% | +$598 | -$12,091 | 94.5% | $-11,654 (vs do-nothing $-10,100) |
| $457.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 1/1 | $5,900 | $5,864 | 71% | 78% | +$544 | -$14,771 | 115.4% | $-14,334 (vs do-nothing $-12,780) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $470 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.00 | 1/1 | $3,600 | $3,564 | 70% | 76% | +$353 | -$12,911 | 100.9% | $-12,474 (vs do-nothing $-10,920) |
| $467.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.00 | 1/1 | $3,600 | $3,564 | 69% | 75% | +$141 | -$13,161 | 102.8% | $-12,724 (vs do-nothing $-11,170) |
| $470 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.80 | 1/1 | $2,965 | $2,928 | 69% | 77% | +$627 | -$12,431 | 97.1% | $-11,994 (vs do-nothing $-10,440) |
| $455 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 1/1 | $6,700 | $6,664 | 68% | 76% | +$644 | -$14,941 | 116.7% | $-14,504 (vs do-nothing $-12,950) |
| $465 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.00 | 1/1 | $3,600 | $3,564 | 68% | 75% | $-81 | -$13,411 | 104.8% | $-12,974 (vs do-nothing $-11,420) |
| $462.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.80 | 1/1 | $3,840 | $3,804 | 66% | 74% | $-74 | -$13,581 | 106.1% | $-13,144 (vs do-nothing $-11,590) |
| $452.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 1/1 | $7,900 | $7,864 | 66% | 75% | +$1,073 | -$15,071 | 117.7% | $-14,634 (vs do-nothing $-13,080) |
| $465 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $19.40 | 1/1 | $3,424 | $3,387 | 65% | 73% | +$122 | -$12,671 | 99.0% | $-12,234 (vs do-nothing $-10,680) |
| $460 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.40 | 1/1 | $4,020 | $3,984 | 65% | 73% | $-138 | -$13,771 | 107.6% | $-13,334 (vs do-nothing $-11,780) |
| $457.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.70 | 1/1 | $4,410 | $4,374 | 65% | 75% | +$797 | -$13,891 | 108.5% | $-13,454 (vs do-nothing $-11,900) |
| $450 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.50 | 1/1 | $8,500 | $8,464 | 63% | 74% | +$826 | -$15,261 | 119.2% | $-14,824 (vs do-nothing $-13,270) |
| $455 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.60 | 1/1 | $4,680 | $4,644 | 63% | 73% | +$803 | -$14,051 | 109.8% | $-13,614 (vs do-nothing $-12,060) |
| $460 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $19.80 | 1/1 | $3,494 | $3,458 | 63% | 72% | $-112 | -$13,131 | 102.6% | $-12,694 (vs do-nothing $-11,140) |
| $452.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.20 | 1/1 | $4,860 | $4,824 | 62% | 73% | +$704 | -$14,241 | 111.3% | $-13,804 (vs do-nothing $-12,250) |
| $455 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $21.70 | 1/1 | $3,829 | $3,793 | 61% | 71% | $-104 | -$13,441 | 105.0% | $-13,004 (vs do-nothing $-11,450) |
| $447.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 1/1 | $9,800 | $9,764 | 61% | 72% | +$1,201 | -$15,381 | 120.2% | $-14,944 (vs do-nothing $-13,390) |
| $450 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $17.20 | 1/1 | $5,160 | $5,124 | 60% | 72% | +$711 | -$14,391 | 112.4% | $-13,954 (vs do-nothing $-12,400) |
| $450 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $24.50 | 1/1 | $4,324 | $4,287 | 59% | 70% | +$41 | -$13,661 | 106.7% | $-13,224 (vs do-nothing $-11,670) |
| $447.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $18.20 | 1/1 | $5,460 | $5,424 | 58% | 71% | +$703 | -$14,541 | 113.6% | $-14,104 (vs do-nothing $-12,550) |
| $445 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $12.50 | 1/1 | $12,500 | $12,464 | 58% | 71% | +$2,894 | -$15,361 | 120.0% | $-14,924 (vs do-nothing $-13,370) |
| $445 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $19.30 | 1/1 | $5,790 | $5,754 | 57% | 70% | +$710 | -$14,681 | 114.7% | $-14,244 (vs do-nothing $-12,690) |
| $445 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $25.90 | 1/1 | $4,571 | $4,534 | 57% | 69% | $-84 | -$14,021 | 109.5% | $-13,584 (vs do-nothing $-12,030) |
| $442.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $12.00 | 1/1 | $12,000 | $11,964 | 55% | 70% | +$1,304 | -$15,661 | 122.4% | $-15,224 (vs do-nothing $-13,670) |
| $442.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $20.80 | 1/1 | $6,240 | $6,204 | 55% | 70% | +$821 | -$14,781 | 115.5% | $-14,344 (vs do-nothing $-12,790) |
| $440 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $28.50 | 1/1 | $5,029 | $4,993 | 54% | 68% | $-20 | -$14,261 | 111.4% | $-13,824 (vs do-nothing $-12,270) |
| $440 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $22.20 | 1/1 | $6,660 | $6,624 | 53% | 69% | +$887 | -$14,891 | 116.3% | $-14,454 (vs do-nothing $-12,900) |
| $440 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $13.50 | 1/1 | $13,500 | $13,464 | 53% | 69% | +$1,629 | -$15,761 | 123.1% | $-15,324 (vs do-nothing $-13,770) |
| $435 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $30.60 | 1/1 | $5,400 | $5,364 | 52% | 67% | $-69 | -$14,551 | 113.7% | $-14,114 (vs do-nothing $-12,560) |
| $437.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $22.90 | 1/1 | $6,870 | $6,834 | 52% | 68% | +$728 | -$15,071 | 117.7% | $-14,634 (vs do-nothing $-13,080) |
| $437.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $13.60 | 1/1 | $13,600 | $13,564 | 50% | 67% | +$469 | -$16,001 | 125.0% | $-15,564 (vs do-nothing $-14,010) |
| $435 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $24.30 | 1/1 | $7,290 | $7,254 | 50% | 67% | +$763 | -$15,181 | 118.6% | $-14,744 (vs do-nothing $-13,190) |
| $432.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $25.70 | 1/1 | $7,710 | $7,674 | 48% | 67% | +$782 | -$15,291 | 119.5% | $-14,854 (vs do-nothing $-13,300) |
| $435 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $16.40 | 1/1 | $16,400 | $16,364 | 47% | 66% | +$1,923 | -$15,971 | 124.8% | $-15,534 (vs do-nothing $-13,980) |
| $432.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $16.60 | 1/1 | $16,600 | $16,564 | 45% | 65% | +$693 | -$16,201 | 126.6% | $-15,764 (vs do-nothing $-14,210) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.