1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $603.14 (banked floor $583.10) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $6,520/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $48/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,998 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 1 × $450 | 81% | $3,488 | $716 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $575 | 7 Aug | 8d | 45.8% | 99%hist 100% | 2%hist 1% | +0pp | $15 | $56 | -$3,431 | $2,799 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $575 45.8% OTM over spot $394.50 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.48 mid) = $15 credit for the 8d cycle → $56/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $575) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $575.48) 99% EV / mo +$27 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-4/mo median; plan ~$-3/mo after 68% keep · $-16 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,392 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $583 @ 70% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $48.16/sh now → $34.07 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $575 is $28 below CC-SS $603.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $575.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $575)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $553.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,998 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,778 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $575): -$2,799 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,019 (+$15,979 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,004 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,015, the opportunity cost of earning $56/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $465.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-15,644 (+$6,354 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $485 | 7 Aug | 8d | 22.9% | 91%hist 100% | 19%hist 5% | +6pp | $460 | $1,725 | -$1,762 | $11,354 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $485 22.9% OTM over spot $394.50 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $5.30 mid) = $460 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $485) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $490.30) 92% EV / mo +$1,033 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,002/mo median; plan ~$681/mo after 68% keep · $4,958 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.0-4.2], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,414 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $513 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $40.62/sh now → $28.74 mid-life (likely $23.18–$41.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 270 simulated challenges: the $485 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $500 (overshoots $15.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $485 is $118 below CC-SS $603.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.15/sh (~25% of the $4.60 collected) or spot ≥ $490.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $485)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $553.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,998 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,778 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $485): -$11,354 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,574 (+$7,424 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,004 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,570, the opportunity cost of earning $1,725/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $465.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-15,644 (+$6,354 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 1 × $460 | 7 Aug | 8d | 16.6% | 84%hist 99% | 33%hist 18% | +4pp | $580 | $2,175 | -$1,312 | $13,734 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $460 16.6% OTM over spot $394.50 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $7.80 mid) = $580 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,175/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $460) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $467.80) 87% EV / mo +$621 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,032/mo median; plan ~$702/mo after 68% keep · $5,467 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,145 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $490 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $38.53/sh now → $27.25 mid-life (likely $25.36–$40.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 559 simulated challenges: the $460 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $473 (overshoots $13.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $460 is $143 below CC-SS $603.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.45/sh (~25% of the $5.80 collected) or spot ≥ $467.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $460)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $553.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,998 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,778 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $460): -$13,734 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,954 (+$5,044 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,004 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,950, the opportunity cost of earning $2,175/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $465.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-15,644 (+$6,354 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $450 | 7 Aug | 8d | 14.1% | 81%hist 99% | 40%hist 18% | +10pp | $930 | $3,488 | — | $14,384 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $450 14.1% OTM over spot $394.50 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $10.65 mid) = $930 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,488/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $450) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $460.65) 85% EV / mo +$1,384 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,478/mo median; plan ~$1,005/mo after 68% keep · $8,728 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.8], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,736 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $496 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $37.69/sh now → $26.66 mid-life (likely $25.93–$41.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $9.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 733 simulated challenges: the $450 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $463 (overshoots $13.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $450 is $153 below CC-SS $603.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.33/sh (~25% of the $9.30 collected) or spot ≥ $460.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $450)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $553.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,998 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,778 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $450): -$14,384 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,604 (+$4,394 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,004 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,600, the opportunity cost of earning $3,488/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $465.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$580, position total $-16,224 (+$5,774 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $422.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 7.1% | 71%hist 96% | 61%hist 51% | +20pp | $1,740 | $6,525 | +$3,038 | $16,324 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $422.50 7.1% OTM over spot $394.50 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $19.75 mid) = $1,740 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $422.50) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $442.25) 81% EV / mo +$3,138 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +20pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,416/mo median; plan ~$1,643/mo after 68% keep · $12,352 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.5-4.1], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$763 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $513 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $35.39/sh now → $25.03 mid-life (likely $29.22–$42.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $17.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,442 simulated challenges: the $422 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $435 (overshoots $12.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $422.50 is $181 below CC-SS $603.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.35/sh (~25% of the $17.40 collected) or spot ≥ $442.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $422)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $553.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,998 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,778 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $422.50): -$16,324 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,544 (+$2,454 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,004 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,540, the opportunity cost of earning $6,525/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $465.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,520, position total $-18,164 (+$3,834 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 57 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$18,778 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,004
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $450 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.30 | 1/1 | $3,488 | $3,440 | 81% | 85% | +$1,384 | -$14,384 | 112.4% | $-17,604 (vs do-nothing $-12,600) |
| $445 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.60 | 1/1 | $3,600 | $3,552 | 79% | 83% | +$1,165 | -$14,854 | 116.1% | $-18,074 (vs do-nothing $-13,070) |
| $442.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.90 | 1/1 | $3,712 | $3,664 | 78% | 83% | +$1,096 | -$15,074 | 117.8% | $-18,294 (vs do-nothing $-13,290) |
| $440 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $12.80 | 1/1 | $4,800 | $4,752 | 77% | 82% | +$1,991 | -$15,034 | 117.5% | $-18,254 (vs do-nothing $-13,250) |
| $437.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.60 | 1/1 | $4,350 | $4,302 | 76% | 81% | +$1,337 | -$15,404 | 120.3% | $-18,624 (vs do-nothing $-13,620) |
| $430 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $16.00 | 1/1 | $6,000 | $5,952 | 75% | 82% | +$3,301 | -$15,714 | 122.8% | $-18,934 (vs do-nothing $-13,930) |
| $435 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $13.30 | 1/1 | $4,988 | $4,940 | 75% | 81% | +$1,760 | -$15,484 | 121.0% | $-18,704 (vs do-nothing $-13,700) |
| $432.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $14.60 | 1/1 | $5,475 | $5,427 | 74% | 80% | +$2,020 | -$15,604 | 121.9% | $-18,824 (vs do-nothing $-13,820) |
| $427.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $16.00 | 1/1 | $6,000 | $5,952 | 74% | 82% | +$3,086 | -$15,964 | 124.7% | $-19,184 (vs do-nothing $-14,180) |
| $435 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $17.30 | 1/1 | $3,460 | $3,412 | 72% | 79% | +$1,058 | -$15,084 | 117.8% | $-18,304 (vs do-nothing $-13,300) |
| $425 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $17.10 | 1/1 | $6,412 | $6,364 | 72% | 81% | +$3,269 | -$16,104 | 125.8% | $-19,324 (vs do-nothing $-14,320) |
| $422.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $17.40 | 1/1 | $6,525 | $6,477 | 71% | 81% | +$3,138 | -$16,324 | 127.5% | $-19,544 (vs do-nothing $-14,540) |
| $430 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $17.40 | 1/1 | $3,480 | $3,432 | 70% | 78% | +$810 | -$15,574 | 121.7% | $-18,794 (vs do-nothing $-13,790) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $420 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $18.00 | 1/1 | $6,750 | $6,702 | 69% | 80% | +$3,104 | -$16,514 | 129.0% | $-19,734 (vs do-nothing $-14,730) |
| $425 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $18.60 | 1/1 | $3,720 | $3,672 | 68% | 77% | +$760 | -$15,954 | 124.6% | $-19,174 (vs do-nothing $-14,170) |
| $417.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $18.20 | 1/1 | $6,825 | $6,777 | 68% | 79% | +$2,906 | -$16,744 | 130.8% | $-19,964 (vs do-nothing $-14,960) |
| $415 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $20.40 | 1/1 | $7,650 | $7,602 | 66% | 79% | +$3,441 | -$16,774 | 131.1% | $-19,994 (vs do-nothing $-14,990) |
| $422.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $25.50 | 1/1 | $3,477 | $3,429 | 66% | 76% | +$929 | -$15,514 | 121.2% | $-18,734 (vs do-nothing $-13,730) |
| $420 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $21.70 | 1/1 | $4,340 | $4,292 | 66% | 76% | +$1,065 | -$16,144 | 126.1% | $-19,364 (vs do-nothing $-14,360) |
| $420 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $25.00 | 1/1 | $3,409 | $3,361 | 65% | 75% | +$744 | -$15,814 | 123.6% | $-19,034 (vs do-nothing $-14,030) |
| $417.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $22.60 | 1/1 | $4,520 | $4,472 | 65% | 75% | +$1,078 | -$16,304 | 127.4% | $-19,524 (vs do-nothing $-14,520) |
| $412.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $20.70 | 1/1 | $7,762 | $7,714 | 65% | 78% | +$3,247 | -$16,994 | 132.8% | $-20,214 (vs do-nothing $-15,210) |
| $417.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $25.50 | 1/1 | $3,477 | $3,429 | 64% | 75% | +$691 | -$16,014 | 125.1% | $-19,234 (vs do-nothing $-14,230) |
| $415 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $21.90 | 1/1 | $4,380 | $4,332 | 64% | 74% | +$765 | -$16,624 | 129.9% | $-19,844 (vs do-nothing $-14,840) |
| $410 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $22.20 | 1/1 | $8,325 | $8,277 | 63% | 77% | +$3,487 | -$17,094 | 133.6% | $-20,314 (vs do-nothing $-15,310) |
| $415 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $26.80 | 1/1 | $3,655 | $3,607 | 63% | 74% | +$744 | -$16,134 | 126.1% | $-19,354 (vs do-nothing $-14,350) |
| $412.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $25.40 | 1/1 | $5,080 | $5,032 | 63% | 74% | +$1,285 | -$16,524 | 129.1% | $-19,744 (vs do-nothing $-14,740) |
| $412.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $28.80 | 1/1 | $3,927 | $3,879 | 62% | 74% | +$888 | -$16,184 | 126.4% | $-19,404 (vs do-nothing $-14,400) |
| $407.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $21.40 | 1/1 | $8,025 | $7,977 | 62% | 76% | +$2,846 | -$17,424 | 136.1% | $-20,644 (vs do-nothing $-15,640) |
| $410 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $24.00 | 1/1 | $4,800 | $4,752 | 62% | 73% | +$818 | -$16,914 | 132.1% | $-20,134 (vs do-nothing $-15,130) |
| $410 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $30.80 | 1/1 | $4,200 | $4,152 | 61% | 73% | +$1,027 | -$16,234 | 126.8% | $-19,454 (vs do-nothing $-14,450) |
| $407.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $27.50 | 1/1 | $5,500 | $5,452 | 60% | 73% | +$1,324 | -$16,814 | 131.4% | $-20,034 (vs do-nothing $-15,030) |
| $407.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $30.80 | 1/1 | $4,200 | $4,152 | 60% | 73% | +$890 | -$16,484 | 128.8% | $-19,704 (vs do-nothing $-14,700) |
| $405 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $24.10 | 1/1 | $9,038 | $8,990 | 60% | 75% | +$3,501 | -$17,404 | 136.0% | $-20,624 (vs do-nothing $-15,620) |
| $405 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $27.80 | 1/1 | $5,560 | $5,512 | 59% | 73% | +$1,184 | -$17,034 | 133.1% | $-20,254 (vs do-nothing $-15,250) |
| $405 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $31.20 | 1/1 | $4,255 | $4,207 | 59% | 72% | +$802 | -$16,694 | 130.4% | $-19,914 (vs do-nothing $-14,910) |
| $402.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $25.20 | 1/1 | $9,450 | $9,402 | 58% | 75% | +$3,537 | -$17,544 | 137.1% | $-20,764 (vs do-nothing $-15,760) |
| $402.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $33.60 | 1/1 | $4,582 | $4,534 | 58% | 72% | +$983 | -$16,704 | 130.5% | $-19,924 (vs do-nothing $-14,920) |
| $402.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $29.60 | 1/1 | $5,920 | $5,872 | 58% | 72% | +$1,337 | -$17,104 | 133.6% | $-20,324 (vs do-nothing $-15,320) |
| $400 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $34.40 | 1/1 | $4,691 | $4,643 | 57% | 72% | +$942 | -$16,874 | 131.8% | $-20,094 (vs do-nothing $-15,090) |
| $400 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $30.00 | 1/1 | $6,000 | $5,952 | 57% | 72% | +$1,202 | -$17,314 | 135.3% | $-20,534 (vs do-nothing $-15,530) |
| $400 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $26.30 | 1/1 | $9,862 | $9,814 | 57% | 74% | +$3,555 | -$17,684 | 138.2% | $-20,904 (vs do-nothing $-15,900) |
| $397.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $34.50 | 1/1 | $4,705 | $4,657 | 56% | 71% | +$800 | -$17,114 | 133.7% | $-20,334 (vs do-nothing $-15,330) |
| $397.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $31.90 | 1/1 | $6,380 | $6,332 | 55% | 71% | +$1,360 | -$17,374 | 135.7% | $-20,594 (vs do-nothing $-15,590) |
| $397.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $27.00 | 1/1 | $10,125 | $10,077 | 55% | 71% | +$2,024 | -$17,864 | 139.6% | $-21,084 (vs do-nothing $-16,080) |
| $395 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $37.00 | 1/1 | $5,045 | $4,997 | 55% | 71% | +$981 | -$17,114 | 133.7% | $-20,334 (vs do-nothing $-15,330) |
| $395 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $32.60 | 1/1 | $6,520 | $6,472 | 54% | 71% | +$1,271 | -$17,554 | 137.1% | $-20,774 (vs do-nothing $-15,770) |
| $392.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $36.90 | 1/1 | $5,032 | $4,984 | 54% | 70% | +$803 | -$17,374 | 135.7% | $-20,594 (vs do-nothing $-15,590) |
| $395 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $28.60 | 1/1 | $10,725 | $10,677 | 53% | 73% | +$3,572 | -$17,954 | 140.3% | $-21,174 (vs do-nothing $-16,170) |
| $392.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $34.20 | 1/1 | $6,840 | $6,792 | 53% | 70% | +$1,354 | -$17,644 | 137.8% | $-20,864 (vs do-nothing $-15,860) |
| $390 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $39.80 | 1/1 | $5,427 | $5,379 | 52% | 70% | +$1,030 | -$17,334 | 135.4% | $-20,554 (vs do-nothing $-15,550) |
| $390 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $35.60 | 1/1 | $7,120 | $7,072 | 52% | 70% | +$1,390 | -$17,754 | 138.7% | $-20,974 (vs do-nothing $-15,970) |
| $392.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $30.50 | 1/1 | $11,438 | $11,390 | 51% | 73% | +$3,833 | -$18,014 | 140.7% | $-21,234 (vs do-nothing $-16,230) |
| $387.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $40.70 | 1/1 | $5,550 | $5,502 | 51% | 69% | +$979 | -$17,494 | 136.7% | $-20,714 (vs do-nothing $-15,710) |
| $387.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $36.90 | 1/1 | $7,380 | $7,332 | 50% | 69% | +$1,398 | -$17,874 | 139.6% | $-21,094 (vs do-nothing $-16,090) |
| $390 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $31.00 | 1/1 | $11,625 | $11,577 | 50% | 72% | +$3,549 | -$18,214 | 142.3% | $-21,434 (vs do-nothing $-16,430) |
| $387.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $32.10 | 1/1 | $12,038 | $11,990 | 48% | 71% | +$3,471 | -$18,354 | 143.4% | $-21,574 (vs do-nothing $-16,570) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.