FORTRESS FIGHT: APP @ $394.50

BE SS: $588.00  |  CC-SS: $603.14  |  1 contracts (100 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-30 19:14

APP @ $394.50   UNDERWATER $193.50 (32.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
APP reports 2026-08-05 (Wed), in 6 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

1 contracts (100 sh)  |  BE SS: $588.00  |  CC-SS: $603.14 (banked floor $583.10)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $460 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $287.732/sh)
SP: $540 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $160.484/sh)
HP: $185 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.752/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$48,300(ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100
Normal income ref$6,520/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$48/mo
Unrealized P&L$-21,998fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,260/mo
HEDGE COVER
$48/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$6,520/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $12,800
ML VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $48,300
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $603.14 (probe: $600C 15d) brings only $10/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$2,111
Hole (after banked)
$19,887
was $21,998 · 10% earned back
Cycles closed
5
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$603.14 → $583.10
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 20 (live) · RSI 42 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 32 · %B 22 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $465.10 (+18%) · daily UBB $553.31 · 1-wk expected move ±$53 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-05: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 1 contract at $450 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 81%, breach 19%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,260/mo); it brings $3,488/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $422.50/8d for $6,525/mo, but breach risk rises to 29% (+10pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $575/8d (99% survival, $56/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $14,384 (112% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $588, recoverable in 2.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-22,133 and cuts bleed by $48/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 1 × $450, 81% survival, $3,488/mo (E[net] $716/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆7 Aug 2026 · 8d1 × $45081%$3,488$716
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $930 with probability 76%; on the 24% touch you roll, paying $2,666 to close and taking $572 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,094) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $716/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $450 (50% normal), 81% survival, breach 19%, $3,488/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $460 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 19% → 16%) for $1,312/mo less (38% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
APP  spot $394.50 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $5757 Aug8d45.8%99%hist 100%2%hist 1%+0pp$15$56-$3,431$2,799
Sell 1 × $575 45.8% OTM over spot $394.50 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.48 mid)
= $15 credit for the 8d cycle → $56/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $575)
99%
Breach risk
1%
POP (stays ≤ $575.48)
99%
EV / mo
+$27
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+0pp
47% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-4/mo
median; plan ~$-3/mo after 68% keep · $-16 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
1%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,392
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$583 @ 70% POP
57% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $48.16/sh now → $34.07 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.92/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$57514 Aug 202611d left-$0.64/sh-$64
cycle -$49
68%
surv 53%
-$5,802 NOT
cap gain +$16,196
Max even-money escape in the band~$58321 Aug 202618d left+$1.47/sh+$147
cycle +$162
70%
surv 57%
-$4,871 NOT
cap gain +$17,127
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$56/mo
vs 50% target ($3,260/mo)-98%
vs normal income ($6,520/mo)1% covered
Net income (after hedge)$8/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $575 is $28 below CC-SS $603.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$2,799
… as % of IC ($12,800)21.9%
… as % of ML ($48,300)5.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-22,030
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $575.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $575)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $553.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $569.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$569-575.48
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $575.48
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$575.00 (3.2σ)$15$-5,738+$16,260-$15
+2.5%$589.38 (3.4σ)$-1,422$-5,882+$16,116-$1,015
+5%$603.75 (3.7σ)$-2,860$-6,026+$15,972-$1,015
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.14, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,998
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,778
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $575): -$2,799
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,019 (+$15,979 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,004 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,015, the opportunity cost of earning $56/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $465.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-15,644 (+$6,354 vs today)
🛡 safe yield1 × $4857 Aug8d22.9%91%hist 100%19%hist 5%+6pp$460$1,725-$1,762$11,354
Sell 1 × $485 22.9% OTM over spot $394.50 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $5.30 mid)
= $460 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,725/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $485)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $490.30)
92%
EV / mo
+$1,033
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+6pp
57% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,002/mo
median; plan ~$681/mo after 68% keep · $4,958 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.0-4.2], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
9%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,414
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$513 @ 75% POP
66% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $40.62/sh now → $28.74 mid-life (likely $23.18–$41.88)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $4.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.14/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 270 simulated challenges: the $485 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $500 (overshoots $15.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$48514 Aug 202611d left+$2.69/sh+$269
cycle +$729
[-$78…+$820] · 70% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$13,124 NOT
cap gain +$8,874
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$48814 Aug 202611d left+$1.62/sh+$162
cycle +$622
[-$220…+$690] · 64% credit
69%
surv 55%
-$12,961 NOT
cap gain +$9,037
Max even-money escape in the band~$50021 Aug 202618d left+$1.95/sh+$195
cycle +$655
[-$276…+$779] · 62% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$11,803 NOT
cap gain +$10,195
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$51321 Aug 202618d left-$3.47/sh-$347
cycle +$113
[-$937…+$203] · 36% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$11,220 NOT
cap gain +$10,778
budget: banked $460 debit $347 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$113 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,210/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,725/mo
vs 50% target ($3,260/mo)-47%
vs normal income ($6,520/mo)26% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,677/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $485 is $118 below CC-SS $603.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$11,354
… as % of IC ($12,800)88.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)23.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-22,068
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.15/sh (~25% of the $4.60 collected) or spot ≥ $490.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $485)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $553.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $480.15Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$480-490.30
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $490.30
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$485.00 (1.6σ)$460$-13,393+$8,605+$430
+2.5%$497.12 (1.8σ)$-752$-13,514+$8,484-$782
+5%$509.25 (2.0σ)$-1,965$-13,636+$8,362-$1,995
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (3.4σ)$-9,840$-14,423+$7,575-$9,570
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.14, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,998
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,778
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $485): -$11,354
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,574 (+$7,424 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,004 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,570, the opportunity cost of earning $1,725/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $465.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-15,644 (+$6,354 vs today)
33% normal1 × $4607 Aug8d16.6%84%hist 99%33%hist 18%+4pp$580$2,175-$1,312$13,734
Sell 1 × $460 16.6% OTM over spot $394.50 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $7.80 mid)
= $580 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,175/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $460)
84%
Breach risk
16%
POP (stays ≤ $467.80)
87%
EV / mo
+$621
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
54% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,032/mo
median; plan ~$702/mo after 68% keep · $5,467 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
19%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,145
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$490 @ 75% POP
67% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $38.53/sh now → $27.25 mid-life (likely $25.36–$40.07)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $5.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.45/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 559 simulated challenges: the $460 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $473 (overshoots $13.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$46821 Aug 202618d left+$5.49/sh+$549
cycle +$1,129
[+$36…+$933] · 78% credit
71%
surv 57%
-$14,254 NOT
cap gain +$7,744
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$46014 Aug 202611d left+$3.40/sh+$340
cycle +$920
[-$95…+$673] · 68% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$15,183 NOT
cap gain +$6,815
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$46614 Aug 202611d left+$0.47/sh+$47
cycle +$627
[-$439…+$321] · 45% credit
70%
surv 56%
-$14,981 NOT
cap gain +$7,017
Max even-money escape in the band~$47821 Aug 202618d left+$0.63/sh+$63
cycle +$643
[-$522…+$376] · 44% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$13,840 NOT
cap gain +$8,158
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$49021 Aug 202618d left-$4.33/sh-$433
cycle +$147
[-$1,095…-$178] · 21% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$13,211 NOT
cap gain +$8,787
budget: banked $580 debit $433 (75% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$147 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,821/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,175/mo
vs 50% target ($3,260/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($6,520/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,127/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $460 is $143 below CC-SS $603.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$13,734
… as % of IC ($12,800)107.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)28.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-22,198
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.45/sh (~25% of the $5.80 collected) or spot ≥ $467.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $460)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $553.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $455.40Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$455-467.80
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $467.80
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$460.00 (1.1σ)$580$-15,523+$6,475+$550
+2.5%$471.50 (1.4σ)$-570$-15,638+$6,360-$600
+5%$483.00 (1.6σ)$-1,720$-15,753+$6,245-$1,750
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (3.4σ)$-12,220$-16,803+$5,195-$11,950
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.14, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,998
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,778
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $460): -$13,734
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,954 (+$5,044 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,004 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,950, the opportunity cost of earning $2,175/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $465.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-15,644 (+$6,354 vs today)
🎯 50% normal1 × $4507 Aug8d14.1%81%hist 99%40%hist 18%+10pp$930$3,488$14,384
Sell 1 × $450 14.1% OTM over spot $394.50 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $10.65 mid)
= $930 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,488/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $450)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $460.65)
85%
EV / mo
+$1,384
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+10pp
53% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.3/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,478/mo
median; plan ~$1,005/mo after 68% keep · $8,728 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.8], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
24%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,736
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$496 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $37.69/sh now → $26.66 mid-life (likely $25.93–$41.90)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $9.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 733 simulated challenges: the $450 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $463 (overshoots $13.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$45821 Aug 202618d left+$5.72/sh+$572
cycle +$1,502
[-$49…+$809] · 71% credit
71%
surv 57%
-$14,781 NOT
cap gain +$7,217
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$45014 Aug 202611d left+$3.66/sh+$366
cycle +$1,296
[-$163…+$568] · 62% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$15,707 NOT
cap gain +$6,291
Max even-money escape in the band~$46821 Aug 202618d left+$0.88/sh+$88
cycle +$1,018
[-$617…+$303] · 38% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$14,365 NOT
cap gain +$7,633
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$45814 Aug 202611d left+$0.25/sh+$25
cycle +$955
[-$565…+$201] · 35% credit
71%
surv 58%
-$15,328 NOT
cap gain +$6,670
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$49621 Aug 202618d left-$8.12/sh-$812
cycle +$118
[-$1,695…-$669] · 8% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$12,790 NOT
cap gain +$9,208
budget: banked $930 debit $812 (87% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,090/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,488/mo
vs 50% target ($3,260/mo)+7%
vs normal income ($6,520/mo)53% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,440/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $450 is $153 below CC-SS $603.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$14,384
… as % of IC ($12,800)112.4%
… as % of ML ($48,300)29.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.2 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-22,133
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.33/sh (~25% of the $9.30 collected) or spot ≥ $460.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $450)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $553.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $445.50Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$446-460.65
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $460.65
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$450.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$930$-16,073+$5,925+$900
+2.5%$461.25 (1.2σ)$-195$-16,185+$5,813-$225
+5%$472.50 (1.4σ)$-1,320$-16,298+$5,700-$1,350
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (3.4σ)$-12,870$-17,453+$4,545-$12,600
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.14, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,998
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,778
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $450): -$14,384
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,604 (+$4,394 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,004 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,600, the opportunity cost of earning $3,488/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $465.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$580, position total $-16,224 (+$5,774 vs today)
100% normal1 × $422.507 Aug8d7.1%71%hist 96%61%hist 51%+20pp$1,740$6,525+$3,038$16,324
Sell 1 × $422.50 7.1% OTM over spot $394.50 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $19.75 mid)
= $1,740 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,525/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $422.50)
71%
Breach risk
29%
POP (stays ≤ $442.25)
81%
EV / mo
+$3,138
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+20pp
61% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,416/mo
median; plan ~$1,643/mo after 68% keep · $12,352 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.5-4.1], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
48%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$763
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$513 @ 88% POP
87% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $35.39/sh now → $25.03 mid-life (likely $29.22–$42.60)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $17.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.63/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,442 simulated challenges: the $422 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $435 (overshoots $12.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$43021 Aug 202618d left+$6.26/sh+$626
cycle +$2,366
[-$172…+$520] · 61% credit
71%
surv 58%
-$16,392 NOT
cap gain +$5,606
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$42214 Aug 202611d left+$4.30/sh+$430
cycle +$2,170
[-$245…+$339] · 50% credit
69%
surv 53%
-$17,308 NOT
cap gain +$4,690
Max even-money escape in the band~$44021 Aug 202618d left+$1.48/sh+$148
cycle +$1,888
[-$735…-$2] · 25% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$15,970 NOT
cap gain +$6,028
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$43014 Aug 202611d left+$0.89/sh+$89
cycle +$1,829
[-$636…-$36] · 24% credit
71%
surv 58%
-$16,929 NOT
cap gain +$5,069
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$51321 Aug 202618d left-$17.35/sh-$1,735
cycle +$5
[-$3,086…-$2,062]
88%
surv 87%
-$11,328 NOT
cap gain +$10,670
budget: banked $1,740 debit $1,735 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,280/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,525/mo
vs 50% target ($3,260/mo)+100%
vs normal income ($6,520/mo)100% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,477/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $422.50 is $181 below CC-SS $603.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$16,324
… as % of IC ($12,800)127.5%
… as % of ML ($48,300)33.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-22,233
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.35/sh (~25% of the $17.40 collected) or spot ≥ $442.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $422)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $553.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $418.27Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$418-442.25
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $442.25
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$422.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,740$-17,738+$4,260+$1,710
+2.5%$433.06 (≤1σ, normal week)$684$-17,844+$4,154+$654
+5%$443.62 (≤1σ, normal week)$-373$-17,949+$4,049-$402
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (3.4σ)$-14,810$-19,393+$2,605-$14,540
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.14, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,998
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,778
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $422.50): -$16,324
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,544 (+$2,454 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,004 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,540, the opportunity cost of earning $6,525/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $465.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,520, position total $-18,164 (+$3,834 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on APP are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (57 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 57 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback)  |  Recovery@SS: +$18,778 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,004

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$4508d7 Aug 2026$9.301/1$3,488$3,44081%85%+$1,384-$14,384112.4%$-17,604 (vs do-nothing $-12,600)
$4458d7 Aug 2026$9.601/1$3,600$3,55279%83%+$1,165-$14,854116.1%$-18,074 (vs do-nothing $-13,070)
$442.508d7 Aug 2026$9.901/1$3,712$3,66478%83%+$1,096-$15,074117.8%$-18,294 (vs do-nothing $-13,290)
$4408d7 Aug 2026$12.801/1$4,800$4,75277%82%+$1,991-$15,034117.5%$-18,254 (vs do-nothing $-13,250)
$437.508d7 Aug 2026$11.601/1$4,350$4,30276%81%+$1,337-$15,404120.3%$-18,624 (vs do-nothing $-13,620)
$4308d7 Aug 2026$16.001/1$6,000$5,95275%82%+$3,301-$15,714122.8%$-18,934 (vs do-nothing $-13,930)
$4358d7 Aug 2026$13.301/1$4,988$4,94075%81%+$1,760-$15,484121.0%$-18,704 (vs do-nothing $-13,700)
$432.508d7 Aug 2026$14.601/1$5,475$5,42774%80%+$2,020-$15,604121.9%$-18,824 (vs do-nothing $-13,820)
$427.508d7 Aug 2026$16.001/1$6,000$5,95274%82%+$3,086-$15,964124.7%$-19,184 (vs do-nothing $-14,180)
$43515d14 Aug 2026$17.301/1$3,460$3,41272%79%+$1,058-$15,084117.8%$-18,304 (vs do-nothing $-13,300)
$4258d7 Aug 2026$17.101/1$6,412$6,36472%81%+$3,269-$16,104125.8%$-19,324 (vs do-nothing $-14,320)
$422.508d7 Aug 2026$17.401/1$6,525$6,47771%81%+$3,138-$16,324127.5%$-19,544 (vs do-nothing $-14,540)
$43015d14 Aug 2026$17.401/1$3,480$3,43270%78%+$810-$15,574121.7%$-18,794 (vs do-nothing $-13,790)
Show 44 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$4208d7 Aug 2026$18.001/1$6,750$6,70269%80%+$3,104-$16,514129.0%$-19,734 (vs do-nothing $-14,730)
$42515d14 Aug 2026$18.601/1$3,720$3,67268%77%+$760-$15,954124.6%$-19,174 (vs do-nothing $-14,170)
$417.508d7 Aug 2026$18.201/1$6,825$6,77768%79%+$2,906-$16,744130.8%$-19,964 (vs do-nothing $-14,960)
$4158d7 Aug 2026$20.401/1$7,650$7,60266%79%+$3,441-$16,774131.1%$-19,994 (vs do-nothing $-14,990)
$422.5022d21 Aug 2026$25.501/1$3,477$3,42966%76%+$929-$15,514121.2%$-18,734 (vs do-nothing $-13,730)
$42015d14 Aug 2026$21.701/1$4,340$4,29266%76%+$1,065-$16,144126.1%$-19,364 (vs do-nothing $-14,360)
$42022d21 Aug 2026$25.001/1$3,409$3,36165%75%+$744-$15,814123.6%$-19,034 (vs do-nothing $-14,030)
$417.5015d14 Aug 2026$22.601/1$4,520$4,47265%75%+$1,078-$16,304127.4%$-19,524 (vs do-nothing $-14,520)
$412.508d7 Aug 2026$20.701/1$7,762$7,71465%78%+$3,247-$16,994132.8%$-20,214 (vs do-nothing $-15,210)
$417.5022d21 Aug 2026$25.501/1$3,477$3,42964%75%+$691-$16,014125.1%$-19,234 (vs do-nothing $-14,230)
$41515d14 Aug 2026$21.901/1$4,380$4,33264%74%+$765-$16,624129.9%$-19,844 (vs do-nothing $-14,840)
$4108d7 Aug 2026$22.201/1$8,325$8,27763%77%+$3,487-$17,094133.6%$-20,314 (vs do-nothing $-15,310)
$41522d21 Aug 2026$26.801/1$3,655$3,60763%74%+$744-$16,134126.1%$-19,354 (vs do-nothing $-14,350)
$412.5015d14 Aug 2026$25.401/1$5,080$5,03263%74%+$1,285-$16,524129.1%$-19,744 (vs do-nothing $-14,740)
$412.5022d21 Aug 2026$28.801/1$3,927$3,87962%74%+$888-$16,184126.4%$-19,404 (vs do-nothing $-14,400)
$407.508d7 Aug 2026$21.401/1$8,025$7,97762%76%+$2,846-$17,424136.1%$-20,644 (vs do-nothing $-15,640)
$41015d14 Aug 2026$24.001/1$4,800$4,75262%73%+$818-$16,914132.1%$-20,134 (vs do-nothing $-15,130)
$41022d21 Aug 2026$30.801/1$4,200$4,15261%73%+$1,027-$16,234126.8%$-19,454 (vs do-nothing $-14,450)
$407.5015d14 Aug 2026$27.501/1$5,500$5,45260%73%+$1,324-$16,814131.4%$-20,034 (vs do-nothing $-15,030)
$407.5022d21 Aug 2026$30.801/1$4,200$4,15260%73%+$890-$16,484128.8%$-19,704 (vs do-nothing $-14,700)
$4058d7 Aug 2026$24.101/1$9,038$8,99060%75%+$3,501-$17,404136.0%$-20,624 (vs do-nothing $-15,620)
$40515d14 Aug 2026$27.801/1$5,560$5,51259%73%+$1,184-$17,034133.1%$-20,254 (vs do-nothing $-15,250)
$40522d21 Aug 2026$31.201/1$4,255$4,20759%72%+$802-$16,694130.4%$-19,914 (vs do-nothing $-14,910)
$402.508d7 Aug 2026$25.201/1$9,450$9,40258%75%+$3,537-$17,544137.1%$-20,764 (vs do-nothing $-15,760)
$402.5022d21 Aug 2026$33.601/1$4,582$4,53458%72%+$983-$16,704130.5%$-19,924 (vs do-nothing $-14,920)
$402.5015d14 Aug 2026$29.601/1$5,920$5,87258%72%+$1,337-$17,104133.6%$-20,324 (vs do-nothing $-15,320)
$40022d21 Aug 2026$34.401/1$4,691$4,64357%72%+$942-$16,874131.8%$-20,094 (vs do-nothing $-15,090)
$40015d14 Aug 2026$30.001/1$6,000$5,95257%72%+$1,202-$17,314135.3%$-20,534 (vs do-nothing $-15,530)
$4008d7 Aug 2026$26.301/1$9,862$9,81457%74%+$3,555-$17,684138.2%$-20,904 (vs do-nothing $-15,900)
$397.5022d21 Aug 2026$34.501/1$4,705$4,65756%71%+$800-$17,114133.7%$-20,334 (vs do-nothing $-15,330)
$397.5015d14 Aug 2026$31.901/1$6,380$6,33255%71%+$1,360-$17,374135.7%$-20,594 (vs do-nothing $-15,590)
$397.508d7 Aug 2026$27.001/1$10,125$10,07755%71%+$2,024-$17,864139.6%$-21,084 (vs do-nothing $-16,080)
$39522d21 Aug 2026$37.001/1$5,045$4,99755%71%+$981-$17,114133.7%$-20,334 (vs do-nothing $-15,330)
$39515d14 Aug 2026$32.601/1$6,520$6,47254%71%+$1,271-$17,554137.1%$-20,774 (vs do-nothing $-15,770)
$392.5022d21 Aug 2026$36.901/1$5,032$4,98454%70%+$803-$17,374135.7%$-20,594 (vs do-nothing $-15,590)
$3958d7 Aug 2026$28.601/1$10,725$10,67753%73%+$3,572-$17,954140.3%$-21,174 (vs do-nothing $-16,170)
$392.5015d14 Aug 2026$34.201/1$6,840$6,79253%70%+$1,354-$17,644137.8%$-20,864 (vs do-nothing $-15,860)
$39022d21 Aug 2026$39.801/1$5,427$5,37952%70%+$1,030-$17,334135.4%$-20,554 (vs do-nothing $-15,550)
$39015d14 Aug 2026$35.601/1$7,120$7,07252%70%+$1,390-$17,754138.7%$-20,974 (vs do-nothing $-15,970)
$392.508d7 Aug 2026$30.501/1$11,438$11,39051%73%+$3,833-$18,014140.7%$-21,234 (vs do-nothing $-16,230)
$387.5022d21 Aug 2026$40.701/1$5,550$5,50251%69%+$979-$17,494136.7%$-20,714 (vs do-nothing $-15,710)
$387.5015d14 Aug 2026$36.901/1$7,380$7,33250%69%+$1,398-$17,874139.6%$-21,094 (vs do-nothing $-16,090)
$3908d7 Aug 2026$31.001/1$11,625$11,57750%72%+$3,549-$18,214142.3%$-21,434 (vs do-nothing $-16,430)
$387.508d7 Aug 2026$32.101/1$12,038$11,99048%71%+$3,471-$18,354143.4%$-21,574 (vs do-nothing $-16,570)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-07-30 19:14