1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $606.95 (banked floor $586.94) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $6,200/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $48/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,714 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 1 × $445 | 80% | $3,338 | $-203 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $560 | 7 Aug | 8d | 42.7% | 98%hist 100% | 3%hist 1% | +1pp | $20 | $75 | -$3,262 | $4,675 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $560 42.7% OTM over spot $392.30 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.80 mid) = $20 credit for the 8d cycle → $75/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $560) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $561.80) 98% EV / mo +$5 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7/mo median; plan ~$5/mo after 68% keep · $19 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,386 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $565 @ 69% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $48.14/sh now → $34.06 mid-life (likely $22.66–$47.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 51 simulated challenges: the $560 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $579 (overshoots $18.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $560 is $47 below CC-SS $606.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $561.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $560)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $543.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $606.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,714 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,333 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $560): -$4,675 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,056 (+$18,658 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,071 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,985, the opportunity cost of earning $75/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $464.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-14,838 (+$7,876 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $480 | 7 Aug | 8d | 22.4% | 90%hist 100% | 20%hist 13% | +5pp | $360 | $1,350 | -$1,988 | $12,335 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $480 22.4% OTM over spot $392.30 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $4.80 mid) = $360 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $480) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $484.80) 91% EV / mo +$548 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $700/mo median; plan ~$476/mo after 68% keep · $4,016 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.9-4.2], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,559 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $498 @ 72% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $41.26/sh now → $29.19 mid-life (likely $25.98–$43.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 421 simulated challenges: the $480 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $497 (overshoots $16.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $480 is $127 below CC-SS $606.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $484.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $480)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $543.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $606.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,714 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,333 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $480): -$12,335 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,716 (+$10,998 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,071 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,645, the opportunity cost of earning $1,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $464.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-14,838 (+$7,876 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $470 | 7 Aug | 8d | 19.8% | 88%hist 99% | 25%hist 13% | +5pp | $580 | $2,175 | -$1,162 | $13,115 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $470 19.8% OTM over spot $392.30 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $6.75 mid) = $580 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,175/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $470) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $476.75) 90% EV / mo +$1,086 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,139/mo median; plan ~$774/mo after 68% keep · $5,545 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,278 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $493 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $40.40/sh now → $28.58 mid-life (likely $26.54–$44.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$22.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 574 simulated challenges: the $470 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $487 (overshoots $16.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $470 is $137 below CC-SS $606.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.45/sh (~25% of the $5.80 collected) or spot ≥ $476.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $470)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $543.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $606.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,714 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,333 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $470): -$13,115 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,496 (+$10,218 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,071 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,425, the opportunity cost of earning $2,175/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $464.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-14,838 (+$7,876 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $445 | 7 Aug | 8d | 13.4% | 80%hist 96% | 42%hist 28% | +9pp | $890 | $3,338 | — | $15,305 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $445 13.4% OTM over spot $392.30 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $10.75 mid) = $890 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,338/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $445) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $455.75) 84% EV / mo +$1,071 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,506/mo median; plan ~$1,024/mo after 68% keep · $6,874 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.7], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,816 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $480 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $38.25/sh now → $27.06 mid-life (likely $28.59–$44.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$18.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 974 simulated challenges: the $445 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $460 (overshoots $15.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $445 is $162 below CC-SS $606.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.23/sh (~25% of the $8.90 collected) or spot ≥ $455.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $445)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $543.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $606.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,714 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,333 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $445): -$15,305 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,686 (+$8,028 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,071 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,615, the opportunity cost of earning $3,338/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $464.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,085, position total $-15,923 (+$6,791 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $415 | 7 Aug | 8d | 5.8% | 68%hist 80% | 68%hist 51% | +14pp | $1,920 | $7,200 | +$3,862 | $17,275 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $415 5.8% OTM over spot $392.30 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $20.70 mid) = $1,920 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $415) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $435.70) 79% EV / mo +$3,285 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,531/mo median; plan ~$1,721/mo after 68% keep · $11,802 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$604 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $503 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $35.67/sh now → $25.24 mid-life (likely $31.67–$45.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $19.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,726 simulated challenges: the $415 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $429 (overshoots $14.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $415 is $192 below CC-SS $606.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.80/sh (~25% of the $19.20 collected) or spot ≥ $435.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $415)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $543.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $606.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,714 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,333 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $415): -$17,275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,656 (+$6,058 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,071 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,585, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $464.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,055, position total $-17,893 (+$4,821 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 55 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.087 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,333 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,071
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $445 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.90 | 1/1 | $3,338 | $3,290 | 80% | 84% | +$1,071 | -$15,305 | 119.6% | $-14,686 (vs do-nothing $-13,615) |
| $442.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.00 | 1/1 | $3,375 | $3,327 | 79% | 83% | +$943 | -$15,545 | 121.4% | $-14,926 (vs do-nothing $-13,855) |
| $440 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.10 | 1/1 | $3,412 | $3,364 | 78% | 82% | +$806 | -$15,785 | 123.3% | $-15,166 (vs do-nothing $-14,095) |
| $437.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.20 | 1/1 | $3,825 | $3,777 | 77% | 82% | +$1,033 | -$15,925 | 124.4% | $-15,306 (vs do-nothing $-14,235) |
| $435 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.40 | 1/1 | $4,275 | $4,227 | 76% | 81% | +$1,286 | -$16,055 | 125.4% | $-15,436 (vs do-nothing $-14,365) |
| $432.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $12.10 | 1/1 | $4,538 | $4,490 | 75% | 81% | +$1,341 | -$16,235 | 126.8% | $-15,616 (vs do-nothing $-14,545) |
| $430 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $13.70 | 1/1 | $5,138 | $5,090 | 74% | 80% | +$1,721 | -$16,325 | 127.5% | $-15,706 (vs do-nothing $-14,635) |
| $427.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $13.30 | 1/1 | $4,988 | $4,940 | 72% | 79% | +$1,338 | -$16,615 | 129.8% | $-15,996 (vs do-nothing $-14,925) |
| $425 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $14.00 | 1/1 | $5,250 | $5,202 | 71% | 79% | +$1,356 | -$16,795 | 131.2% | $-16,176 (vs do-nothing $-15,105) |
| $420 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $15.60 | 1/1 | $5,850 | $5,802 | 71% | 80% | +$2,469 | -$17,135 | 133.9% | $-16,516 (vs do-nothing $-15,445) |
| $422.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $14.80 | 1/1 | $5,550 | $5,502 | 70% | 78% | +$1,397 | -$16,965 | 132.5% | $-16,346 (vs do-nothing $-15,275) |
| $425 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $17.00 | 1/1 | $3,400 | $3,352 | 69% | 77% | +$624 | -$16,495 | 128.9% | $-15,876 (vs do-nothing $-14,805) |
| $417.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $16.00 | 1/1 | $6,000 | $5,952 | 69% | 79% | +$2,359 | -$17,345 | 135.5% | $-16,726 (vs do-nothing $-15,655) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $415 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $19.20 | 1/1 | $7,200 | $7,152 | 68% | 79% | +$3,285 | -$17,275 | 135.0% | $-16,656 (vs do-nothing $-15,585) |
| $420 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $19.00 | 1/1 | $3,800 | $3,752 | 67% | 76% | +$718 | -$16,795 | 131.2% | $-16,176 (vs do-nothing $-15,105) |
| $412.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $18.00 | 1/1 | $6,750 | $6,702 | 66% | 78% | +$2,544 | -$17,645 | 137.9% | $-17,026 (vs do-nothing $-15,955) |
| $417.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $19.30 | 1/1 | $3,860 | $3,812 | 66% | 75% | +$616 | -$17,015 | 132.9% | $-16,396 (vs do-nothing $-15,325) |
| $417.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $23.00 | 1/1 | $3,136 | $3,088 | 65% | 75% | +$494 | -$16,645 | 130.0% | $-16,026 (vs do-nothing $-14,955) |
| $415 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $20.50 | 1/1 | $4,100 | $4,052 | 65% | 75% | +$687 | -$17,145 | 133.9% | $-16,526 (vs do-nothing $-15,455) |
| $410 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $21.40 | 1/1 | $8,025 | $7,977 | 65% | 78% | +$3,511 | -$17,555 | 137.1% | $-16,936 (vs do-nothing $-15,865) |
| $415 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $24.00 | 1/1 | $3,273 | $3,225 | 64% | 74% | +$510 | -$16,795 | 131.2% | $-16,176 (vs do-nothing $-15,105) |
| $412.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $22.00 | 1/1 | $4,400 | $4,352 | 64% | 74% | +$811 | -$17,245 | 134.7% | $-16,626 (vs do-nothing $-15,555) |
| $412.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $25.00 | 1/1 | $3,409 | $3,361 | 63% | 74% | +$521 | -$16,945 | 132.4% | $-16,326 (vs do-nothing $-15,255) |
| $407.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $20.20 | 1/1 | $7,575 | $7,527 | 63% | 76% | +$2,737 | -$17,925 | 140.0% | $-17,306 (vs do-nothing $-16,235) |
| $410 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $23.00 | 1/1 | $4,600 | $4,552 | 63% | 74% | +$829 | -$17,395 | 135.9% | $-16,776 (vs do-nothing $-15,705) |
| $410 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $26.00 | 1/1 | $3,545 | $3,497 | 62% | 73% | +$529 | -$17,095 | 133.6% | $-16,476 (vs do-nothing $-15,405) |
| $405 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $21.00 | 1/1 | $7,875 | $7,827 | 62% | 75% | +$2,695 | -$18,095 | 141.4% | $-17,476 (vs do-nothing $-16,405) |
| $407.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $24.00 | 1/1 | $4,800 | $4,752 | 61% | 73% | +$840 | -$17,545 | 137.1% | $-16,926 (vs do-nothing $-15,855) |
| $407.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $27.00 | 1/1 | $3,682 | $3,634 | 61% | 73% | +$532 | -$17,245 | 134.7% | $-16,626 (vs do-nothing $-15,555) |
| $405 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $25.00 | 1/1 | $5,000 | $4,952 | 60% | 73% | +$843 | -$17,695 | 138.2% | $-17,076 (vs do-nothing $-16,005) |
| $405 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $29.00 | 1/1 | $3,955 | $3,907 | 60% | 72% | +$667 | -$17,295 | 135.1% | $-16,676 (vs do-nothing $-15,605) |
| $402.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $22.00 | 1/1 | $8,250 | $8,202 | 60% | 75% | +$2,710 | -$18,245 | 142.5% | $-17,626 (vs do-nothing $-16,555) |
| $402.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $26.00 | 1/1 | $5,200 | $5,152 | 59% | 72% | +$840 | -$17,845 | 139.4% | $-17,226 (vs do-nothing $-16,155) |
| $402.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $30.00 | 1/1 | $4,091 | $4,043 | 59% | 72% | +$661 | -$17,445 | 136.3% | $-16,826 (vs do-nothing $-15,755) |
| $400 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $23.00 | 1/1 | $8,625 | $8,577 | 58% | 74% | +$2,707 | -$18,395 | 143.7% | $-17,776 (vs do-nothing $-16,705) |
| $400 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $31.00 | 1/1 | $4,227 | $4,179 | 58% | 72% | +$651 | -$17,595 | 137.5% | $-16,976 (vs do-nothing $-15,905) |
| $400 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $27.00 | 1/1 | $5,400 | $5,352 | 58% | 72% | +$830 | -$17,995 | 140.6% | $-17,376 (vs do-nothing $-16,305) |
| $397.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $32.00 | 1/1 | $4,364 | $4,316 | 57% | 71% | +$636 | -$17,745 | 138.6% | $-17,126 (vs do-nothing $-16,055) |
| $397.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $28.00 | 1/1 | $5,600 | $5,552 | 57% | 71% | +$812 | -$18,145 | 141.8% | $-17,526 (vs do-nothing $-16,455) |
| $397.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $24.00 | 1/1 | $9,000 | $8,952 | 56% | 73% | +$2,686 | -$18,545 | 144.9% | $-17,926 (vs do-nothing $-16,855) |
| $395 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $33.00 | 1/1 | $4,500 | $4,452 | 56% | 70% | +$330 | -$17,895 | 139.8% | $-17,276 (vs do-nothing $-16,205) |
| $395 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $30.00 | 1/1 | $6,000 | $5,952 | 55% | 71% | +$987 | -$18,195 | 142.1% | $-17,576 (vs do-nothing $-16,505) |
| $395 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $25.00 | 1/1 | $9,375 | $9,327 | 55% | 70% | +$1,404 | -$18,695 | 146.1% | $-18,076 (vs do-nothing $-17,005) |
| $392.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $35.00 | 1/1 | $4,773 | $4,725 | 55% | 70% | +$448 | -$17,945 | 140.2% | $-17,326 (vs do-nothing $-16,255) |
| $392.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $31.00 | 1/1 | $6,200 | $6,152 | 54% | 70% | +$954 | -$18,345 | 143.3% | $-17,726 (vs do-nothing $-16,655) |
| $390 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $36.00 | 1/1 | $4,909 | $4,861 | 54% | 69% | +$426 | -$18,095 | 141.4% | $-17,476 (vs do-nothing $-16,405) |
| $392.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $27.00 | 1/1 | $10,125 | $10,077 | 54% | 70% | +$1,711 | -$18,745 | 146.4% | $-18,126 (vs do-nothing $-17,055) |
| $390 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $32.00 | 1/1 | $6,400 | $6,352 | 53% | 69% | +$914 | -$18,495 | 144.5% | $-17,876 (vs do-nothing $-16,805) |
| $387.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $37.00 | 1/1 | $5,045 | $4,997 | 53% | 69% | +$400 | -$18,245 | 142.5% | $-17,626 (vs do-nothing $-16,555) |
| $390 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $28.00 | 1/1 | $10,500 | $10,452 | 52% | 69% | +$1,626 | -$18,895 | 147.6% | $-18,276 (vs do-nothing $-17,205) |
| $385 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $38.00 | 1/1 | $5,182 | $5,134 | 52% | 68% | +$369 | -$18,395 | 143.7% | $-17,776 (vs do-nothing $-16,705) |
| $387.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $33.00 | 1/1 | $6,600 | $6,552 | 51% | 69% | +$866 | -$18,645 | 145.7% | $-18,026 (vs do-nothing $-16,955) |
| $387.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $29.00 | 1/1 | $10,875 | $10,827 | 51% | 69% | +$1,524 | -$19,045 | 148.8% | $-18,426 (vs do-nothing $-17,355) |
| $385 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $35.00 | 1/1 | $7,000 | $6,952 | 50% | 68% | +$1,010 | -$18,695 | 146.1% | $-18,076 (vs do-nothing $-17,005) |
| $385 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $32.80 | 1/1 | $12,300 | $12,252 | 49% | 69% | +$2,455 | -$18,915 | 147.8% | $-18,296 (vs do-nothing $-17,225) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.