FORTRESS FIGHT: APP @ $393.62

BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $607.88 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

APP @ $393.62 UNDERWATER $194.38 (33.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

APP reports 2026-08-05 (Wed), in 5 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $607.88 (banked floor $587.87) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $460 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $287.732/sh)

SP: $540 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $160.484/sh)

HP: $185 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.752/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,300	(ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100
Normal income ref	$5,760/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$49/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-22,671	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,880/mo

HEDGE COVER
$49/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,760/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $12,800

ML VELOCITY
8.4 mo to earn back $48,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $607.88 (probe: $575C 14d) brings only $11/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,111

Hole (after banked)

$20,560

was $22,671 · 9% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$607.88 → $587.87

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 20 (live) · RSI 42 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 33 · %B 25 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $464.80 (+18%) · daily UBB $526.82 · 1-wk expected move ±$54 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-05: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 1 contract at $450 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 81%, breach 19%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,880/mo); it brings $3,429/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $420/7d for $5,871/mo, but breach risk rises to 32% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $575/7d (99% survival, $86/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $14,988 (117% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $588, recoverable in 2.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-22,736 and cuts bleed by $49/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (7d) · sell 1 × $450, 81% survival, $3,429/mo (E[net] $391/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 7d	1 × $450	81%	$3,429	$391

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $800 with probability 71%; on the 29% touch you roll, paying $2,205 to close and taking $585 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,619) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 7d · E[net] $391/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $450 (50% normal), 81% survival, breach 19%, $3,429/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $465 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 19% → 14%) for $1,329/mo less (39% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

APP spot $393.62 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $575

7 Aug

46.1%

99%hist 100%

2%hist 1%

+0pp

$20

$86

-$3,343

$3,268

Sell 1 × $575 46.1% OTM over spot $393.62 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.15 mid)

= $20 credit for the 7d cycle → $86/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $575)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $576.15)

99%

EV / mo

+$55

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

51% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$17/mo

median; plan ~$12/mo after 68% keep · $44 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-4.0], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,797

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$599 @ 72% POP

63% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $39.81/sh now → $28.17 mid-life (likely $17.65–$30.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$27.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 52 simulated challenges: the $575 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $591 (overshoots $16.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$586	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.10/sh	+$210 cycle +$230 [+$346…+$1,317] · 94% credit	69% surv 58%	-$1,507 NOT cap gain +$21,164
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$575	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.36/sh	+$36 cycle +$56 [+$174…+$972] · 92% credit	67% surv 53%	-$2,917 NOT cap gain +$19,754
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$599	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$4.36/sh	-$436 cycle -$416 [-$326…+$610] · 63% credit	72% surv 63%	-$796 NOT cap gain +$21,875

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$86/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$37/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $575 is $33 below CC-SS $607.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,268
… as % of IC ($12,800)	25.5%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	6.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,766

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $576.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $575)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $526.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $569.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $569-576.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $576.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$575.00 (3.3σ)	$20	$-2,953	+$19,718	+$15
+2.5%	$589.38 (3.6σ)	$-1,418	$-2,830	+$19,841	-$1,422
+5%	$603.75 (3.9σ)	$-2,855	$-2,706	+$19,965	-$1,485

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $607.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,671

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,269

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $575): -$3,268

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,670 (+$20,001 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,485, the opportunity cost of earning $86/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $464.80 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-14,941 (+$7,730 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

1 × $490

7 Aug

24.5%

92%hist 100%

17%hist 5%

+4pp

$300

$1,286

-$2,143

$11,488

Sell 1 × $490 24.5% OTM over spot $393.62 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $3.35 mid)

= $300 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,286/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $490)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $493.35)

93%

EV / mo

+$593

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

57% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$706/mo

median; plan ~$480/mo after 68% keep · $3,086 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,100

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$521 @ 73% POP

66% survival

Buyback gross: $33.93/sh now → $24.00 mid-life (likely $20.85–$35.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 335 simulated challenges: the $490 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $508 (overshoots $18.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$490	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$2.88/sh	+$288 cycle +$588 [+$75…+$849] · 80% credit	67% surv 53%	-$11,616 NOT cap gain +$11,055
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$504	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.77/sh	+$177 cycle +$477 [-$197…+$711] · 63% credit	70% surv 60%	-$10,219 NOT cap gain +$12,452
Max even-money escape in the band	~$511	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.46/sh	+$146 cycle +$446 [-$306…+$670] · 57% credit	71% surv 62%	-$9,436 NOT cap gain +$13,235
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$496	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.49/sh	+$49 cycle +$349 [-$225…+$531] · 57% credit	69% surv 56%	-$11,162 NOT cap gain +$11,509
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$521	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$2.26/sh	-$226 cycle +$74 [-$761…+$252] · 35% credit	73% surv 66%	-$8,722 NOT cap gain +$13,949
budget: banked $300 debit $226 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,718/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,286/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-55%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,237/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $490 is $118 below CC-SS $607.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,488
… as % of IC ($12,800)	89.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	23.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,706

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $493.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $490)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $526.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $485.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $485-493.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $493.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$490.00 (1.8σ)	$300	$-11,904	+$10,767	+$295
+2.5%	$502.25 (2.0σ)	$-925	$-11,799	+$10,872	-$930
+5%	$514.50 (2.2σ)	$-2,150	$-11,693	+$10,978	-$2,155
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-9,500	$-11,061	+$11,610	-$9,505

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $607.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,671

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,269

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $490): -$11,488

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,890 (+$11,781 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,705, the opportunity cost of earning $1,286/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $464.80 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-14,941 (+$7,730 vs today)

▸

33% normal

1 × $465

7 Aug

18.1%

86%hist 99%

29%hist 13%

+4pp

$490

$2,100

-$1,329

$13,798

Sell 1 × $465 18.1% OTM over spot $393.62 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $7.40 mid)

= $490 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,100/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $465)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $472.40)

88%

EV / mo

+$542

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,050/mo

median; plan ~$714/mo after 68% keep · $4,682 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,788

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$511 @ 77% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $32.20/sh now → $22.78 mid-life (likely $21.54–$36.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 631 simulated challenges: the $465 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $482 (overshoots $16.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$465	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$3.46/sh	+$346 cycle +$836 [+$72…+$677] · 80% credit	67% surv 53%	-$14,083 NOT cap gain +$8,588
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$479	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.34/sh	+$234 cycle +$724 [-$182…+$582] · 63% credit	70% surv 60%	-$12,687 NOT cap gain +$9,984
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$474	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.53/sh	+$53 cycle +$543 [-$270…+$352] · 49% credit	70% surv 58%	-$13,412 NOT cap gain +$9,259
Max even-money escape in the band	~$491	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.55/sh	+$55 cycle +$545 [-$506…+$395] · 45% credit	73% surv 65%	-$11,509 NOT cap gain +$11,162
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$511	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$4.88/sh	-$488 cycle +$2 [-$1,172…-$209] · 16% credit	77% surv 72%	-$9,881 NOT cap gain +$12,790
budget: banked $490 debit $488 (100% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,237/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,100/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	-27%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,051/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $465 is $143 below CC-SS $607.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,798
… as % of IC ($12,800)	107.8%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	28.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,921

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.23/sh (~25% of the $4.90 collected) or spot ≥ $472.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $465)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $526.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $460.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $460-472.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $472.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$465.00 (1.3σ)	$490	$-14,429	+$8,242	+$485
+2.5%	$476.62 (1.5σ)	$-672	$-14,329	+$8,342	-$677
+5%	$488.25 (1.7σ)	$-1,835	$-14,229	+$8,442	-$1,840
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-11,810	$-13,371	+$9,300	-$11,815

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $607.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,671

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,269

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $465): -$13,798

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,200 (+$9,471 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,015, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $464.80 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-14,941 (+$7,730 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

1 × $450

7 Aug

14.3%

81%hist 99%

40%hist 18%

+8pp

$800

$3,429

—

$14,988

Sell 1 × $450 14.3% OTM over spot $393.62 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $8.65 mid)

= $800 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,429/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $450)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $458.65)

84%

EV / mo

+$1,005

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,499/mo

median; plan ~$1,019/mo after 68% keep · $7,358 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

29%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,405

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$499 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Buyback gross: $31.16/sh now → $22.05 mid-life (likely $22.61–$36.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$14.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 879 simulated challenges: the $450 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $466 (overshoots $16.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$461	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$5.85/sh	+$585 cycle +$1,385 [+$27…+$849] · 78% credit	69% surv 59%	-$13,927 NOT cap gain +$8,744
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$450	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$3.76/sh	+$376 cycle +$1,176 [+$11…+$631] · 76% credit	67% surv 53%	-$15,372 NOT cap gain +$7,299
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$459	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.83/sh	+$83 cycle +$883 [-$330…+$275] · 43% credit	70% surv 58%	-$14,701 NOT cap gain +$7,970
Max even-money escape in the band	~$476	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.88/sh	+$88 cycle +$888 [-$557…+$263] · 38% credit	73% surv 65%	-$12,796 NOT cap gain +$9,875
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$499	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$7.55/sh	-$755 cycle +$45 [-$1,521…-$694] · 6% credit	79% surv 74%	-$11,195 NOT cap gain +$11,476
budget: banked $800 debit $755 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$45 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,415/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,429/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	+19%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	60% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,380/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $450 is $158 below CC-SS $607.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,988
… as % of IC ($12,800)	117.1%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	31.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,736

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.00/sh (~25% of the $8.00 collected) or spot ≥ $458.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $450)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $526.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $445.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $446-458.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $458.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$450.00 (1.0σ)	$800	$-15,748	+$6,923	+$795
+2.5%	$461.25 (1.2σ)	$-325	$-15,651	+$7,020	-$330
+5%	$472.50 (1.5σ)	$-1,450	$-15,555	+$7,116	-$1,455
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-13,000	$-14,561	+$8,110	-$13,005

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $607.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,671

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,269

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $450): -$14,988

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,390 (+$8,281 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,205, the opportunity cost of earning $3,429/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $464.80 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$680, position total $-15,621 (+$7,050 vs today)

▸

100% normal

1 × $420

7 Aug

6.7%

68%hist 80%

68%hist 51%

+9pp

$1,370

$5,871

+$2,443

$17,418

Sell 1 × $420 6.7% OTM over spot $393.62 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $15.50 mid)

= $1,370 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,871/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $420)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $435.50)

75%

EV / mo

+$574

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,882/mo

median; plan ~$1,280/mo after 68% keep · $8,735 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

51%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$688

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$506 @ 87% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $29.08/sh now → $20.58 mid-life (likely $25.12–$37.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,538 simulated challenges: the $420 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $436 (overshoots $16.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$420	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$4.29/sh	+$429 cycle +$1,799 [-$39…+$346] · 68% credit	67% surv 53%	-$18,007 NOT cap gain +$4,664
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$431	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$6.34/sh	+$634 cycle +$2,004 [-$67…+$501] · 68% credit	70% surv 59%	-$16,566 NOT cap gain +$6,105
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$429	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.34/sh	+$134 cycle +$1,504 [-$386…+$34] · 28% credit	70% surv 58%	-$17,337 NOT cap gain +$5,334
Max even-money escape in the band	~$446	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.41/sh	+$141 cycle +$1,511 [-$670…-$25] · 23% credit	73% surv 65%	-$15,430 NOT cap gain +$7,241
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$506	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$13.67/sh	-$1,367 cycle +$3 [-$2,606…-$1,715]	87% surv 86%	-$10,422 NOT cap gain +$12,249
budget: banked $1,370 debit $1,367 (100% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,151/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,871/mo
vs 50% target ($2,880/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($5,760/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,822/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $420 is $188 below CC-SS $607.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$17,418
… as % of IC ($12,800)	136.1%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	36.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-22,851

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.42/sh (~25% of the $13.70 collected) or spot ≥ $435.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $420)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $526.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $415.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $416-435.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $435.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$420.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,370	$-18,436	+$4,235	+$1,365
+2.5%	$430.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$320	$-18,346	+$4,325	+$315
+5%	$441.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-730	$-18,256	+$4,415	-$735
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (3.6σ)	$-15,430	$-16,991	+$5,680	-$15,435

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $607.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,671

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,269

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $420): -$17,418

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,820 (+$5,851 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,185 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,635, the opportunity cost of earning $5,871/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $464.80 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,110, position total $-18,051 (+$4,620 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on APP are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (61 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 61 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.086 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,269 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,185

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$450	7d	7 Aug 2026	$8.00	1/1	$3,429	$3,380	81%	84%	+$1,005	-$14,988	117.1%	$-14,390 (vs do-nothing $-13,205)
$445	7d	7 Aug 2026	$8.20	1/1	$3,514	$3,465	79%	83%	+$728	-$15,468	120.8%	$-14,870 (vs do-nothing $-13,685)
$442.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$8.60	1/1	$3,686	$3,637	78%	82%	+$703	-$15,678	122.5%	$-15,080 (vs do-nothing $-13,895)
$440	7d	7 Aug 2026	$9.50	1/1	$4,071	$4,022	77%	81%	+$881	-$15,838	123.7%	$-15,240 (vs do-nothing $-14,055)
$437.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$9.70	1/1	$4,157	$4,108	76%	81%	+$747	-$16,068	125.5%	$-15,470 (vs do-nothing $-14,285)
$435	7d	7 Aug 2026	$10.20	1/1	$4,371	$4,322	75%	80%	+$731	-$16,268	127.1%	$-15,670 (vs do-nothing $-14,485)
$432.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$10.90	1/1	$4,671	$4,622	74%	79%	+$788	-$16,448	128.5%	$-15,850 (vs do-nothing $-14,665)
$435	14d	14 Aug 2026	$14.10	1/1	$3,021	$2,972	73%	79%	+$548	-$15,878	124.0%	$-15,280 (vs do-nothing $-14,095)
$430	7d	7 Aug 2026	$10.60	1/1	$4,543	$4,494	73%	79%	+$404	-$16,728	130.7%	$-16,130 (vs do-nothing $-14,945)
$427.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$11.70	1/1	$5,014	$4,965	72%	78%	+$606	-$16,868	131.8%	$-16,270 (vs do-nothing $-15,085)
$430	14d	14 Aug 2026	$15.10	1/1	$3,236	$3,187	71%	77%	+$485	-$16,278	127.2%	$-15,680 (vs do-nothing $-14,495)
$425	7d	7 Aug 2026	$12.10	1/1	$5,186	$5,137	71%	77%	+$496	-$17,078	133.4%	$-16,480 (vs do-nothing $-15,295)
$422.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$13.10	1/1	$5,614	$5,565	69%	76%	+$628	-$17,228	134.6%	$-16,630 (vs do-nothing $-15,445)

Show 48 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$425	14d	14 Aug 2026	$16.40	1/1	$3,514	$3,465	69%	76%	+$462	-$16,648	130.1%	$-16,050 (vs do-nothing $-14,865)
$420	7d	7 Aug 2026	$13.70	1/1	$5,871	$5,822	68%	75%	+$574	-$17,418	136.1%	$-16,820 (vs do-nothing $-15,635)
$415	7d	7 Aug 2026	$15.50	1/1	$6,643	$6,594	67%	77%	+$2,305	-$17,738	138.6%	$-17,140 (vs do-nothing $-15,955)
$417.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$14.30	1/1	$6,129	$6,080	67%	75%	+$506	-$17,608	137.6%	$-17,010 (vs do-nothing $-15,825)
$422.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$20.50	1/1	$2,929	$2,880	67%	75%	+$360	-$16,488	128.8%	$-15,890 (vs do-nothing $-14,705)
$420	14d	14 Aug 2026	$18.10	1/1	$3,879	$3,830	67%	75%	+$499	-$16,978	132.6%	$-16,380 (vs do-nothing $-15,195)
$420	21d	21 Aug 2026	$21.80	1/1	$3,114	$3,065	66%	75%	+$428	-$16,608	129.7%	$-16,010 (vs do-nothing $-14,825)
$417.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$19.00	1/1	$4,071	$4,022	66%	74%	+$518	-$17,138	133.9%	$-16,540 (vs do-nothing $-15,355)
$417.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$22.10	1/1	$3,157	$3,108	65%	74%	+$348	-$16,828	131.5%	$-16,230 (vs do-nothing $-15,045)
$415	14d	14 Aug 2026	$20.00	1/1	$4,286	$4,237	64%	74%	+$552	-$17,288	135.1%	$-16,690 (vs do-nothing $-15,505)
$412.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$16.10	1/1	$6,900	$6,851	64%	73%	+$578	-$17,928	140.1%	$-17,330 (vs do-nothing $-16,145)
$415	21d	21 Aug 2026	$23.00	1/1	$3,286	$3,237	64%	73%	+$350	-$16,988	132.7%	$-16,390 (vs do-nothing $-15,205)
$412.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$19.40	1/1	$4,157	$4,108	63%	73%	+$236	-$17,598	137.5%	$-17,000 (vs do-nothing $-15,815)
$410	7d	7 Aug 2026	$17.80	1/1	$7,629	$7,580	63%	72%	+$933	-$18,008	140.7%	$-17,410 (vs do-nothing $-16,225)
$412.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$23.40	1/1	$3,343	$3,294	63%	73%	+$276	-$17,198	134.4%	$-16,600 (vs do-nothing $-15,415)
$410	14d	14 Aug 2026	$19.20	1/1	$4,114	$4,065	62%	72%	$-2	-$17,868	139.6%	$-17,270 (vs do-nothing $-16,085)
$410	21d	21 Aug 2026	$24.50	1/1	$3,500	$3,451	62%	72%	+$297	-$17,338	135.5%	$-16,740 (vs do-nothing $-15,555)
$407.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$17.80	1/1	$7,629	$7,580	61%	72%	+$542	-$18,258	142.6%	$-17,660 (vs do-nothing $-16,475)
$407.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$22.50	1/1	$4,821	$4,772	61%	72%	+$503	-$17,788	139.0%	$-17,190 (vs do-nothing $-16,005)
$407.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$25.40	1/1	$3,629	$3,580	61%	72%	+$286	-$17,498	136.7%	$-16,900 (vs do-nothing $-15,715)
$405	7d	7 Aug 2026	$18.90	1/1	$8,100	$8,051	60%	71%	+$606	-$18,398	143.7%	$-17,800 (vs do-nothing $-16,615)
$405	14d	14 Aug 2026	$23.00	1/1	$4,929	$4,880	60%	71%	+$401	-$17,988	140.5%	$-17,390 (vs do-nothing $-16,205)
$405	21d	21 Aug 2026	$26.20	1/1	$3,743	$3,694	59%	71%	+$256	-$17,668	138.0%	$-17,070 (vs do-nothing $-15,885)
$405	28d	28 Aug 2026	$28.00	1/1	$3,000	$2,951	59%	71%	+$127	-$17,488	136.6%	$-16,890 (vs do-nothing $-15,705)
$402.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$19.30	1/1	$8,271	$8,222	59%	70%	+$351	-$18,608	145.4%	$-18,010 (vs do-nothing $-16,825)
$402.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$24.80	1/1	$5,314	$5,265	58%	70%	+$569	-$18,058	141.1%	$-17,460 (vs do-nothing $-16,275)
$402.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$27.50	1/1	$3,929	$3,880	58%	71%	+$293	-$17,788	139.0%	$-17,190 (vs do-nothing $-16,005)
$400	28d	28 Aug 2026	$30.00	1/1	$3,214	$3,165	58%	69%	$-427	-$17,788	139.0%	$-17,190 (vs do-nothing $-16,005)
$400	21d	21 Aug 2026	$27.50	1/1	$3,929	$3,880	57%	70%	+$139	-$18,038	140.9%	$-17,440 (vs do-nothing $-16,255)
$400	14d	14 Aug 2026	$25.30	1/1	$5,421	$5,372	57%	70%	+$452	-$18,258	142.6%	$-17,660 (vs do-nothing $-16,475)
$400	7d	7 Aug 2026	$20.90	1/1	$8,957	$8,908	57%	69%	+$593	-$18,698	146.1%	$-18,100 (vs do-nothing $-16,915)
$397.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$29.00	1/1	$4,143	$4,094	56%	69%	+$195	-$18,138	141.7%	$-17,540 (vs do-nothing $-16,355)
$395	28d	28 Aug 2026	$32.70	1/1	$3,504	$3,455	56%	68%	$-372	-$18,018	140.8%	$-17,420 (vs do-nothing $-16,235)
$397.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$24.00	1/1	$5,143	$5,094	56%	69%	$-59	-$18,638	145.6%	$-18,040 (vs do-nothing $-16,855)
$397.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$21.80	1/1	$9,343	$9,294	56%	69%	+$516	-$18,858	147.3%	$-18,260 (vs do-nothing $-17,075)
$395	21d	21 Aug 2026	$30.30	1/1	$4,329	$4,280	55%	69%	+$217	-$18,258	142.6%	$-17,660 (vs do-nothing $-16,475)
$395	14d	14 Aug 2026	$27.20	1/1	$5,829	$5,780	55%	69%	+$386	-$18,568	145.1%	$-17,970 (vs do-nothing $-16,785)
$395	7d	7 Aug 2026	$22.30	1/1	$9,557	$9,508	54%	68%	+$248	-$19,058	148.9%	$-18,460 (vs do-nothing $-17,275)
$390	28d	28 Aug 2026	$34.30	1/1	$3,675	$3,626	54%	67%	$-446	-$18,358	143.4%	$-17,760 (vs do-nothing $-16,575)
$392.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$31.00	1/1	$4,429	$4,380	54%	68%	+$150	-$18,438	144.0%	$-17,840 (vs do-nothing $-16,655)
$392.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$28.00	1/1	$6,000	$5,951	53%	68%	+$308	-$18,738	146.4%	$-18,140 (vs do-nothing $-16,955)
$390	21d	21 Aug 2026	$32.70	1/1	$4,671	$4,622	53%	68%	+$220	-$18,518	144.7%	$-17,920 (vs do-nothing $-16,735)
$392.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$23.90	1/1	$10,243	$10,194	53%	67%	+$433	-$19,148	149.6%	$-18,550 (vs do-nothing $-17,365)
$390	14d	14 Aug 2026	$29.60	1/1	$6,343	$6,294	52%	67%	+$394	-$18,828	147.1%	$-18,230 (vs do-nothing $-17,045)
$387.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$33.50	1/1	$4,786	$4,737	52%	67%	+$156	-$18,688	146.0%	$-18,090 (vs do-nothing $-16,905)
$390	7d	7 Aug 2026	$26.00	1/1	$11,143	$11,094	51%	67%	+$813	-$19,188	149.9%	$-18,590 (vs do-nothing $-17,405)
$387.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$30.20	1/1	$6,471	$6,422	51%	67%	+$258	-$19,018	148.6%	$-18,420 (vs do-nothing $-17,235)
$387.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$26.10	1/1	$11,186	$11,137	50%	66%	+$315	-$19,428	151.8%	$-18,830 (vs do-nothing $-17,645)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-31 21:46