1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $605.84 (banked floor $585.84) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $5,824/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $53/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,415 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 3d | 1 × $500 | 90% | $3,300 | $321 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 10d | 1 × $475 | 78% | $3,000 | $-574 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $575 | 7 Aug | 3d | 36.2% | 99%hist 99% | 2%hist 1% | +1pp | $25 | $250 | -$3,050 | $3,059 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $575 36.2% OTM over spot $422.29 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.45 mid) = $25 credit for the 3d cycle → $250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $575) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $575.45) 99% EV / mo +$182 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $145/mo median; plan ~$99/mo after 68% keep · $260 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.5-2.1], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,654 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $603 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $37.87/sh now → $26.79 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$26.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $575 is $31 below CC-SS $605.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $575.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $575)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $494.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,415 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,915 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $575): -$3,059 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,559 (+$16,856 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,495, the opportunity cost of earning $250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $583.41 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$816, position total $-2,749 (+$16,666 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 1 × $515 | 7 Aug | 3d | 22.0% | 93%hist 99% | 14%hist 6% | +3pp | $195 | $1,950 | -$1,350 | $8,889 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $515 22.0% OTM over spot $422.29 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $2.38 mid) = $195 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $515) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $517.38) 94% EV / mo +$919 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,209/mo median; plan ~$822/mo after 68% keep · $2,965 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.4], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,204 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $553 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $33.92/sh now → $23.99 mid-life (likely $22.35–$42.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$22.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 280 simulated challenges: the $515 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $538 (overshoots $23.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $515 is $91 below CC-SS $605.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.95 collected) or spot ≥ $517.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $515)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $494.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,415 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,915 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $515): -$8,889 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,389 (+$11,026 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,325, the opportunity cost of earning $1,950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $583.41 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,646, position total $-8,579 (+$10,836 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $510 | 7 Aug | 3d | 20.8% | 92%hist 99% | 16%hist 6% | +3pp | $235 | $2,350 | -$950 | $9,349 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $510 20.8% OTM over spot $422.29 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $3.22 mid) = $235 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $510) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $513.23) 93% EV / mo +$1,080 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,482/mo median; plan ~$1,008/mo after 68% keep · $2,829 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-1.7], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,141 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $548 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $33.59/sh now → $23.76 mid-life (likely $23.03–$43.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $510 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $535 (overshoots $25.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $510 is $96 below CC-SS $605.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.35 collected) or spot ≥ $513.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $510)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $494.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,415 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,915 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $510): -$9,349 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,849 (+$10,566 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,785, the opportunity cost of earning $2,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $583.41 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,106, position total $-9,039 (+$10,376 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $500 | 7 Aug | 3d | 18.4% | 90%hist 95% | 21%hist 18% | +4pp | $330 | $3,300 | — | $10,254 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $500 18.4% OTM over spot $422.29 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $3.90 mid) = $330 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $500) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $503.90) 91% EV / mo +$1,399 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,759/mo median; plan ~$1,196/mo after 68% keep · $4,422 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,999 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $538 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $32.93/sh now → $23.29 mid-life (likely $23.42–$44.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 421 simulated challenges: the $500 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $526 (overshoots $25.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $500 is $106 below CC-SS $605.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $503.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $500)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $494.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,415 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,915 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $500): -$10,254 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,754 (+$9,661 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,690, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $583.41 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,011, position total $-9,944 (+$9,471 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $475 | 7 Aug | 3d | 12.5% | 82%hist 95% | 38%hist 22% | +9pp | $670 | $6,700 | +$3,400 | $12,414 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $475 12.5% OTM over spot $422.29 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $8.55 mid) = $670 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $475) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $483.55) 85% EV / mo +$1,942 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,374/mo median; plan ~$2,295/mo after 68% keep · $5,325 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.8], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,543 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $513 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $31.28/sh now → $22.13 mid-life (likely $24.11–$42.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$15.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 747 simulated challenges: the $475 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $498 (overshoots $22.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $475 is $131 below CC-SS $605.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.68/sh (~25% of the $6.70 collected) or spot ≥ $483.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $475)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $494.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,415 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,915 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $475): -$12,414 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,914 (+$7,501 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,850, the opportunity cost of earning $6,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $583.41 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,171, position total $-12,104 (+$7,311 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $590 | 14 Aug | 10d | 39.7% | 98%hist 99% | 4%hist 1% | +0pp | $20 | $60 | -$2,940 | $1,564 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $590 39.7% OTM over spot $422.29 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.95 mid) = $20 credit for the 10d cycle → $60/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $590) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $590.95) 98% EV / mo $-13 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3/mo median; plan ~$-2/mo after 68% keep · $-8 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,415 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $598 @ 69% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $48.55/sh now → $34.35 mid-life (likely $20.70–$41.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$34.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 102 simulated challenges: the $590 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $608 (overshoots $17.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $590 is $16 below CC-SS $605.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $590.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $590)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $494.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,415 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,915 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $590): -$1,564 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,064 (+$18,351 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $60/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $583.41 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-1,933 (+$17,482 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $520 | 14 Aug | 10d | 23.1% | 91%hist 99% | 19%hist 6% | +3pp | $340 | $1,020 | -$1,980 | $8,244 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $520 23.1% OTM over spot $422.29 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $4.70 mid) = $340 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $520) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $524.70) 92% EV / mo +$367 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $597/mo median; plan ~$406/mo after 68% keep · $2,582 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.6], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,688 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $533 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $42.79/sh now → $30.28 mid-life (likely $26.77–$44.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$26.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 494 simulated challenges: the $520 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $537 (overshoots $17.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $520 is $86 below CC-SS $605.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $524.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $520)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $494.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,415 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,915 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $520): -$8,244 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,744 (+$11,671 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,680, the opportunity cost of earning $1,020/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $583.41 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,001, position total $-7,934 (+$11,481 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $490 | 14 Aug | 10d | 16.0% | 83%hist 95% | 35%hist 22% | +8pp | $690 | $2,070 | -$930 | $10,894 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $490 16.0% OTM over spot $422.29 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $8.40 mid) = $690 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,070/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $490) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $498.40) 86% EV / mo +$523 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $999/mo median; plan ~$679/mo after 68% keep · $4,640 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.5], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,163 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $518 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $40.32/sh now → $28.53 mid-life (likely $28.05–$43.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 900 simulated challenges: the $490 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $506 (overshoots $15.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $490 is $116 below CC-SS $605.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.73/sh (~25% of the $6.90 collected) or spot ≥ $498.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $490)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $494.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,415 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,915 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $490): -$10,894 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,394 (+$9,021 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,330, the opportunity cost of earning $2,070/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $583.41 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,651, position total $-10,584 (+$8,831 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $475 | 14 Aug | 10d | 12.5% | 78%hist 92% | 46%hist 32% | +7pp | $1,000 | $3,000 | — | $12,084 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $475 12.5% OTM over spot $422.29 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $12.40 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $475) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $487.40) 82% EV / mo +$693 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,327/mo median; plan ~$903/mo after 68% keep · $5,194 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,766 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $513 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $39.09/sh now → $27.66 mid-life (likely $29.94–$44.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,129 simulated challenges: the $475 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $491 (overshoots $15.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $475 is $131 below CC-SS $605.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.50/sh (~25% of the $10.00 collected) or spot ≥ $487.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $475)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $494.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,415 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,915 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $475): -$12,084 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,584 (+$7,831 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,520, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $583.41 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,841, position total $-11,774 (+$7,641 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $440 | 14 Aug | 10d | 4.2% | 63%hist 78% | 80%hist 59% | +11pp | $2,000 | $6,000 | +$3,000 | $14,584 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $440 4.2% OTM over spot $422.29 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $23.00 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $440) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $463.00) 73% EV / mo +$700 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,171/mo median; plan ~$1,476/mo after 68% keep · $6,227 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$562 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $518 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $36.21/sh now → $25.62 mid-life (likely $33.41–$46.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $20.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,989 simulated challenges: the $440 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $455 (overshoots $15.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $440 is $166 below CC-SS $605.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $5.00/sh (~25% of the $20.00 collected) or spot ≥ $463.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $440)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $494.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,415 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,915 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $440): -$14,584 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,084 (+$5,331 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,064 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,020, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $583.41 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,341, position total $-14,274 (+$5,141 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 62 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.085 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,915 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,064
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 1/1 | $3,300 | $3,247 | 90% | 91% | +$1,399 | -$10,254 | 80.1% | $-9,754 (vs do-nothing $-8,690) |
| $495 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 1/1 | $3,700 | $3,647 | 89% | 90% | +$1,392 | -$10,714 | 83.7% | $-10,214 (vs do-nothing $-9,150) |
| $490 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 1/1 | $4,000 | $3,947 | 87% | 89% | +$1,212 | -$11,184 | 87.4% | $-10,684 (vs do-nothing $-9,620) |
| $485 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.00 | 1/1 | $5,000 | $4,947 | 85% | 87% | +$1,650 | -$11,584 | 90.5% | $-11,084 (vs do-nothing $-10,020) |
| $480 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.80 | 1/1 | $5,800 | $5,747 | 83% | 86% | +$1,796 | -$12,004 | 93.8% | $-11,504 (vs do-nothing $-10,440) |
| $475 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.70 | 1/1 | $6,700 | $6,647 | 82% | 85% | +$1,942 | -$12,414 | 97.0% | $-11,914 (vs do-nothing $-10,850) |
| $470 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.50 | 1/1 | $7,500 | $7,447 | 79% | 83% | +$1,875 | -$12,834 | 100.3% | $-12,334 (vs do-nothing $-11,270) |
| $475 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.00 | 1/1 | $3,000 | $2,947 | 78% | 82% | +$693 | -$12,084 | 94.4% | $-11,584 (vs do-nothing $-10,520) |
| $465 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.90 | 1/1 | $7,900 | $7,847 | 77% | 82% | +$1,288 | -$13,294 | 103.9% | $-12,794 (vs do-nothing $-11,730) |
| $470 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.90 | 1/1 | $3,270 | $3,217 | 76% | 81% | +$648 | -$12,494 | 97.6% | $-11,994 (vs do-nothing $-10,930) |
| $460 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.10 | 1/1 | $10,100 | $10,047 | 75% | 80% | +$2,369 | -$13,574 | 106.0% | $-13,074 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $465 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $11.80 | 1/1 | $3,540 | $3,487 | 74% | 80% | +$570 | -$12,904 | 100.8% | $-12,404 (vs do-nothing $-11,340) |
| $455 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.80 | 1/1 | $10,800 | $10,747 | 72% | 78% | +$1,809 | -$14,004 | 109.4% | $-13,504 (vs do-nothing $-12,440) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $460 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $14.20 | 1/1 | $4,260 | $4,207 | 72% | 78% | +$905 | -$13,164 | 102.8% | $-12,664 (vs do-nothing $-11,600) |
| $460 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $18.00 | 1/1 | $3,176 | $3,123 | 70% | 77% | +$574 | -$12,784 | 99.9% | $-12,284 (vs do-nothing $-11,220) |
| $455 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $15.00 | 1/1 | $4,500 | $4,447 | 70% | 77% | +$721 | -$13,584 | 106.1% | $-13,084 (vs do-nothing $-12,020) |
| $450 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $12.70 | 1/1 | $12,700 | $12,647 | 69% | 77% | +$2,300 | -$14,314 | 111.8% | $-13,814 (vs do-nothing $-12,750) |
| $450 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $17.20 | 1/1 | $5,160 | $5,107 | 67% | 75% | +$917 | -$13,864 | 108.3% | $-13,364 (vs do-nothing $-12,300) |
| $455 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $19.80 | 1/1 | $3,494 | $3,441 | 67% | 74% | $-55 | -$13,104 | 102.4% | $-12,604 (vs do-nothing $-11,540) |
| $445 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $14.40 | 1/1 | $14,400 | $14,347 | 67% | 75% | +$2,433 | -$14,644 | 114.4% | $-14,144 (vs do-nothing $-13,080) |
| $450 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $25.00 | 1/1 | $3,125 | $3,072 | 65% | 75% | +$499 | -$13,084 | 102.2% | $-12,584 (vs do-nothing $-11,520) |
| $442.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $14.00 | 1/1 | $14,000 | $13,947 | 65% | 74% | +$1,187 | -$14,934 | 116.7% | $-14,434 (vs do-nothing $-13,370) |
| $450 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $21.50 | 1/1 | $3,794 | $3,741 | 65% | 73% | $-42 | -$13,434 | 105.0% | $-12,934 (vs do-nothing $-11,870) |
| $445 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $18.00 | 1/1 | $5,400 | $5,347 | 65% | 74% | +$650 | -$14,284 | 111.6% | $-13,784 (vs do-nothing $-12,720) |
| $440 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $16.00 | 1/1 | $16,000 | $15,947 | 64% | 73% | +$2,300 | -$14,984 | 117.1% | $-14,484 (vs do-nothing $-13,420) |
| $445 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $27.00 | 1/1 | $3,375 | $3,322 | 64% | 74% | +$522 | -$13,384 | 104.6% | $-12,884 (vs do-nothing $-11,820) |
| $445 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $23.00 | 1/1 | $4,059 | $4,005 | 63% | 72% | $-83 | -$13,784 | 107.7% | $-13,284 (vs do-nothing $-12,220) |
| $440 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $20.00 | 1/1 | $6,000 | $5,947 | 63% | 73% | +$700 | -$14,584 | 113.9% | $-14,084 (vs do-nothing $-13,020) |
| $442.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $24.00 | 1/1 | $4,235 | $4,182 | 63% | 72% | $-66 | -$13,934 | 108.9% | $-13,434 (vs do-nothing $-12,370) |
| $437.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $16.00 | 1/1 | $16,000 | $15,947 | 62% | 73% | +$1,370 | -$15,234 | 119.0% | $-14,734 (vs do-nothing $-13,670) |
| $440 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $29.00 | 1/1 | $3,625 | $3,572 | 62% | 73% | +$531 | -$13,684 | 106.9% | $-13,184 (vs do-nothing $-12,120) |
| $440 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $25.40 | 1/1 | $4,482 | $4,429 | 62% | 71% | +$16 | -$14,044 | 109.7% | $-13,544 (vs do-nothing $-12,480) |
| $437.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $26.00 | 1/1 | $4,588 | $4,535 | 61% | 73% | +$623 | -$14,234 | 111.2% | $-13,734 (vs do-nothing $-12,670) |
| $435 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $17.10 | 1/1 | $17,100 | $17,047 | 61% | 72% | +$1,496 | -$15,374 | 120.1% | $-14,874 (vs do-nothing $-13,810) |
| $435 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $23.00 | 1/1 | $6,900 | $6,847 | 60% | 72% | +$1,005 | -$14,784 | 115.5% | $-14,284 (vs do-nothing $-13,220) |
| $435 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $27.00 | 1/1 | $4,765 | $4,711 | 60% | 72% | +$620 | -$14,384 | 112.4% | $-13,884 (vs do-nothing $-12,820) |
| $435 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $31.20 | 1/1 | $3,900 | $3,847 | 60% | 72% | +$551 | -$13,964 | 109.1% | $-13,464 (vs do-nothing $-12,400) |
| $432.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $18.60 | 1/1 | $18,600 | $18,547 | 59% | 71% | +$1,978 | -$15,474 | 120.9% | $-14,974 (vs do-nothing $-13,910) |
| $432.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $28.30 | 1/1 | $4,994 | $4,941 | 59% | 71% | +$664 | -$14,504 | 113.3% | $-14,004 (vs do-nothing $-12,940) |
| $430 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $19.80 | 1/1 | $19,800 | $19,747 | 58% | 70% | +$2,115 | -$15,604 | 121.9% | $-15,104 (vs do-nothing $-14,040) |
| $430 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $33.30 | 1/1 | $4,162 | $4,109 | 58% | 71% | +$544 | -$14,254 | 111.4% | $-13,754 (vs do-nothing $-12,690) |
| $430 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $24.90 | 1/1 | $7,470 | $7,417 | 58% | 71% | +$934 | -$15,094 | 117.9% | $-14,594 (vs do-nothing $-13,530) |
| $430 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $29.60 | 1/1 | $5,224 | $5,170 | 58% | 71% | +$702 | -$14,624 | 114.3% | $-14,124 (vs do-nothing $-13,060) |
| $427.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $30.30 | 1/1 | $5,347 | $5,294 | 56% | 70% | +$628 | -$14,804 | 115.7% | $-14,304 (vs do-nothing $-13,240) |
| $427.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $20.40 | 1/1 | $20,400 | $20,347 | 56% | 69% | +$1,607 | -$15,794 | 123.4% | $-15,294 (vs do-nothing $-14,230) |
| $425 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $35.70 | 1/1 | $4,462 | $4,409 | 56% | 70% | +$560 | -$14,514 | 113.4% | $-14,014 (vs do-nothing $-12,950) |
| $425 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $31.60 | 1/1 | $5,576 | $5,523 | 55% | 69% | +$654 | -$14,924 | 116.6% | $-14,424 (vs do-nothing $-13,360) |
| $425 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $27.00 | 1/1 | $8,100 | $8,047 | 55% | 69% | +$876 | -$15,384 | 120.2% | $-14,884 (vs do-nothing $-13,820) |
| $425 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $21.90 | 1/1 | $21,900 | $21,847 | 55% | 68% | +$1,953 | -$15,894 | 124.2% | $-15,394 (vs do-nothing $-14,330) |
| $422.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $33.00 | 1/1 | $5,824 | $5,770 | 54% | 69% | +$691 | -$15,034 | 117.5% | $-14,534 (vs do-nothing $-13,470) |
| $420 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $37.40 | 1/1 | $4,675 | $4,622 | 54% | 69% | +$473 | -$14,844 | 116.0% | $-14,344 (vs do-nothing $-13,280) |
| $422.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $23.20 | 1/1 | $23,200 | $23,147 | 53% | 68% | +$2,054 | -$16,014 | 125.1% | $-15,514 (vs do-nothing $-14,450) |
| $420 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $33.90 | 1/1 | $5,982 | $5,929 | 53% | 69% | +$635 | -$15,194 | 118.7% | $-14,694 (vs do-nothing $-13,630) |
| $420 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $29.10 | 1/1 | $8,730 | $8,677 | 52% | 68% | +$771 | -$15,674 | 122.5% | $-15,174 (vs do-nothing $-14,110) |
| $417.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $35.10 | 1/1 | $6,194 | $6,141 | 52% | 68% | +$625 | -$15,324 | 119.7% | $-14,824 (vs do-nothing $-13,760) |
| $415 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $40.30 | 1/1 | $5,038 | $4,984 | 52% | 68% | +$522 | -$15,054 | 117.6% | $-14,554 (vs do-nothing $-13,490) |
| $420 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $24.20 | 1/1 | $24,200 | $24,147 | 52% | 67% | +$1,808 | -$16,164 | 126.3% | $-15,664 (vs do-nothing $-14,600) |
| $417.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $30.30 | 1/1 | $9,090 | $9,037 | 51% | 68% | +$745 | -$15,804 | 123.5% | $-15,304 (vs do-nothing $-14,240) |
| $415 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $36.10 | 1/1 | $6,371 | $6,317 | 51% | 68% | +$573 | -$15,474 | 120.9% | $-14,974 (vs do-nothing $-13,910) |
| $417.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $25.10 | 1/1 | $25,100 | $25,047 | 50% | 67% | +$1,416 | -$16,324 | 127.5% | $-15,824 (vs do-nothing $-14,760) |
| $415 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $31.90 | 1/1 | $9,570 | $9,517 | 50% | 67% | +$828 | -$15,894 | 124.2% | $-15,394 (vs do-nothing $-14,330) |
| $415 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $26.50 | 1/1 | $26,500 | $26,447 | 48% | 66% | +$1,479 | -$16,434 | 128.4% | $-15,934 (vs do-nothing $-14,870) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.