FORTRESS FIGHT: APP @ $427.89

BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $601.11 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

APP @ $427.89 UNDERWATER $160.11 (27.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

APP reports 2026-08-05 (Wed), TODAY. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $601.11 (banked floor $581.05) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $460 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $287.732/sh)

SP: $540 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $160.484/sh)

HP: $185 exp 2026-11-20 (entry $2.582/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,300	(ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100
Normal income ref	$6,039/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$69/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-18,168	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,020/mo

HEDGE COVER
$69/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,039/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $12,800

ML VELOCITY
8.0 mo to earn back $48,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $601.11 (probe: $600C 16d) brings only $375/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,111

Hole (after banked)

$16,057

was $18,168 · 12% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$601.11 → $581.05

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 35 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 54 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $583.32 (+36%) · daily UBB $475.24 · 1-wk expected move ±$61 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-05: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 1 contract at $525 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 94%, breach 6%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,020/mo); it brings $3,375/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $500/2d for $7,350/mo, but breach risk rises to 11% (+6pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $600/2d (99+% survival, $300/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $7,386 (58% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $588, recoverable in 1.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-18,210 and cuts bleed by $69/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (2d) · sell 1 × $525, 94% survival, $3,375/mo (E[net] $1,111/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 2d	1 × $525	94%	$3,375	$1,111
NEXT FRIDAY	14 Aug 2026 · 9d	1 × $490	81%	$3,400	$114

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $225 with probability 93%; on the 7% touch you roll, paying $2,532 to close and taking $526 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,006) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 2d · E[net] $1,111/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $525 (50% normal), 94% survival, breach 6%, $3,375/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $535 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 96% (breach 6% → 4%) for $675/mo less (20% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

APP spot $427.89 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $600

7 Aug

40.2%

99+%hist 99%

1%hist 1%

-1pp

$20

$300

-$3,075

$91

Sell 1 × $600 40.2% OTM over spot $427.89 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.28 mid)

= $20 credit for the 2d cycle → $300/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $600)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $600.27)

99+%

EV / mo

+$264

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

66% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$183/mo

median; plan ~$124/mo after 68% keep · $190 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,874

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$627 @ 73% POP

63% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $40.91/sh now → $28.94 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$28.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$600	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$3.61/sh	+$361 cycle +$381	67% surv 53%	+$578 SAFE cap gain +$18,746
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$607	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$2.40/sh	+$240 cycle +$260	70% surv 56%	+$1,216 SAFE cap gain +$19,383
Max even-money escape in the band	~$627	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.60/sh	+$160 cycle +$180	73% surv 63%	+$3,270 SAFE cap gain +$21,437

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$300/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	-90%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$231/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $600 is $1 below CC-SS $601.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$91
… as % of IC ($12,800)	0.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	0.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,175

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $600.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $600)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $475.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $594.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $594-600.27	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $600.27	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$600.00 (5.2σ)	$20	$217	+$18,384	+$810
+2.5%	$615.00 (5.7σ)	$-1,480	$317	+$18,485	+$810
+5%	$630.00 (6.2σ)	$-2,980	$418	+$18,585	+$810

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $601.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,168

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,482

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $600): -$91

Total Position P&L @ SS: $224 (+$18,392 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-586 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$810, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $583.32 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-1,583 (+$16,584 vs today)

▸

33% normal

1 × $535

7 Aug

25.0%

96%hist 99%

9%hist 1%

+4pp

$180

$2,700

-$675

$6,431

Sell 1 × $535 25.0% OTM over spot $427.89 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $2.02 mid)

= $180 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $535)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $537.02)

96%

EV / mo

+$1,901

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,892/mo

median; plan ~$1,287/mo after 68% keep · $2,738 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.5], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,401

Free roll-up

+$12/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$572 @ 75% POP

67% survival

Buyback gross: $36.48/sh now → $25.81 mid-life (likely $26.51–$46.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 161 simulated challenges: the $535 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $562 (overshoots $27.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$535	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$5.08/sh	+$508 cycle +$688 [+$85…+$846] · 76% credit	67% surv 53%	-$6,051 NOT cap gain +$12,116
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$557	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$4.52/sh	+$452 cycle +$632 [-$250…+$765] · 62% credit	72% surv 62%	-$3,748 NOT cap gain +$14,420
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$547	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.31/sh	+$131 cycle +$311 [-$359…+$416] · 53% credit	71% surv 59%	-$5,135 NOT cap gain +$13,032
Max even-money escape in the band	~$572	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$7 cycle +$187 [-$807…+$272] · 33% credit	75% surv 67%	-$2,592 NOT cap gain +$15,575
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,700/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	-11%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	45% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,631/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $535 is $66 below CC-SS $601.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,431
… as % of IC ($12,800)	50.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	13.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,190

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $537.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $535)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $475.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $529.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $530-537.02	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $537.02	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$535.00 (3.3σ)	$180	$-6,559	+$11,609	-$30
+2.5%	$548.38 (3.7σ)	$-1,158	$-6,469	+$11,698	-$1,368
+5%	$561.75 (4.1σ)	$-2,495	$-6,380	+$11,788	-$2,705
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (4.9σ)	$-5,120	$-6,204	+$11,964	-$5,330

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $601.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,168

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,482

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $535): -$6,431

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,116 (+$12,052 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-586 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,530, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $583.32 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,652, position total $-6,235 (+$11,932 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

1 × $525

7 Aug

22.7%

94%hist 99%

12%hist 6%

+5pp

$225

$3,375

—

$7,386

Sell 1 × $525 22.7% OTM over spot $427.89 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $2.67 mid)

= $225 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $525)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $527.67)

95%

EV / mo

+$2,139

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,180/mo

median; plan ~$1,482/mo after 68% keep · $3,626 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,307

Free roll-up

+$12/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$562 @ 75% POP

67% survival

Buyback gross: $35.80/sh now → $25.32 mid-life (likely $27.23–$54.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 203 simulated challenges: the $525 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $553 (overshoots $27.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$525	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$5.26/sh	+$526 cycle +$751 [-$100…+$761] · 73% credit	67% surv 53%	-$7,055 NOT cap gain +$11,113
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$547	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$4.74/sh	+$474 cycle +$699 [-$614…+$634] · 65% credit	72% surv 62%	-$4,748 NOT cap gain +$13,420
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$537	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.49/sh	+$149 cycle +$374 [-$618…+$317] · 50% credit	71% surv 59%	-$6,140 NOT cap gain +$12,028
Max even-money escape in the band	~$562	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.30/sh	+$30 cycle +$255 [-$1,233…+$126] · 31% credit	75% surv 67%	-$3,591 NOT cap gain +$14,576
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,375/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	+12%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	56% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,306/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $525 is $76 below CC-SS $601.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,386
… as % of IC ($12,800)	57.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	15.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,210

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.25 collected) or spot ≥ $527.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $525)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $475.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $519.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $520-527.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $527.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$525.00 (3.0σ)	$225	$-7,581	+$10,587	+$15
+2.5%	$538.12 (3.4σ)	$-1,088	$-7,493	+$10,675	-$1,298
+5%	$551.25 (3.8σ)	$-2,400	$-7,405	+$10,763	-$2,610
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (4.9σ)	$-6,075	$-7,159	+$11,009	-$6,285

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $601.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,168

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,482

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $525): -$7,386

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,071 (+$11,097 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-586 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,485, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $583.32 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,607, position total $-7,190 (+$10,977 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

1 × $505

7 Aug

18.0%

90%hist 99%

21%hist 18%

+7pp

$390

$5,850

+$2,475

$9,221

Sell 1 × $505 18.0% OTM over spot $427.89 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $4.65 mid)

= $390 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,850/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $505)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $509.65)

91%

EV / mo

+$3,060

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

73% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,642/mo

median; plan ~$2,477/mo after 68% keep · $4,916 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,046

Free roll-up

+$12/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$557 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $34.43/sh now → $24.36 mid-life (likely $26.26–$50.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$20.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 377 simulated challenges: the $505 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $531 (overshoots $26.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$505	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$5.60/sh	+$560 cycle +$950 [-$73…+$796] · 72% credit	67% surv 53%	-$8,990 NOT cap gain +$9,178
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$522	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$7.61/sh	+$761 cycle +$1,151 [-$196…+$970] · 69% credit	71% surv 60%	-$6,963 NOT cap gain +$11,204
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$517	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.81/sh	+$181 cycle +$571 [-$572…+$352] · 49% credit	71% surv 59%	-$8,077 NOT cap gain +$10,091
Max even-money escape in the band	~$542	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.71/sh	+$71 cycle +$461 [-$1,121…+$183] · 33% credit	75% surv 67%	-$5,519 NOT cap gain +$12,648
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$557	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$3.67/sh	-$367 cycle +$23 [-$1,728…-$321] · 12% credit	78% surv 72%	-$4,357 NOT cap gain +$13,811
budget: banked $390 debit $367 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,821/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,850/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	+94%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	97% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,781/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $505 is $96 below CC-SS $601.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,221
… as % of IC ($12,800)	72.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	19.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,242

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $509.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $505)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $475.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $499.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $500-509.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $509.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$505.00 (2.3σ)	$390	$-9,550	+$8,618	+$180
+2.5%	$517.62 (2.7σ)	$-872	$-9,465	+$8,702	-$1,082
+5%	$530.25 (3.1σ)	$-2,135	$-9,381	+$8,787	-$2,345
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (4.9σ)	$-7,910	$-8,994	+$9,174	-$8,120

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $601.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,168

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,482

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $505): -$9,221

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,906 (+$9,262 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-586 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,320, the opportunity cost of earning $5,850/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $583.32 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,442, position total $-9,025 (+$9,142 vs today)

▸

100% normal

1 × $500

7 Aug

16.9%

89%hist 95%

24%hist 18%

+6pp

$490

$7,350

+$3,975

$9,621

Sell 1 × $500 16.9% OTM over spot $427.89 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $5.20 mid)

= $490 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,350/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $500)

89%

Breach risk

11%

POP (stays ≤ $505.20)

90%

EV / mo

+$3,975

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

75% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,343/mo

median; plan ~$2,953/mo after 68% keep · $5,253 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.3], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,922

Free roll-up

+$12/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$557 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Buyback gross: $34.09/sh now → $24.12 mid-life (likely $26.58–$52.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 413 simulated challenges: the $500 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $527 (overshoots $27.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$500	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$5.68/sh	+$568 cycle +$1,058 [-$140…+$735] · 71% credit	67% surv 53%	-$9,415 NOT cap gain +$8,752
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$522	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$5.21/sh	+$521 cycle +$1,011 [-$619…+$592] · 61% credit	72% surv 62%	-$7,104 NOT cap gain +$11,064
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$512	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$1.88/sh	+$188 cycle +$678 [-$629…+$282] · 49% credit	71% surv 59%	-$8,503 NOT cap gain +$9,664
Max even-money escape in the band	~$537	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.80/sh	+$80 cycle +$570 [-$1,232…+$80] · 32% credit	75% surv 68%	-$5,944 NOT cap gain +$12,224
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$557	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$4.61/sh	-$461 cycle +$29 [-$1,991…-$497] · 7% credit	79% surv 74%	-$4,350 NOT cap gain +$13,817
budget: banked $490 debit $461 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$29 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,661/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,350/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	+143%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	122% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,281/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $500 is $101 below CC-SS $601.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,621
… as % of IC ($12,800)	75.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	19.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,198

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.23/sh (~25% of the $4.90 collected) or spot ≥ $505.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $500)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $475.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $495.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $495-505.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $505.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$500.00 (2.2σ)	$490	$-9,983	+$8,184	+$280
+2.5%	$512.50 (2.6σ)	$-760	$-9,900	+$8,268	-$970
+5%	$525.00 (3.0σ)	$-2,010	$-9,816	+$8,352	-$2,220
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (4.9σ)	$-8,310	$-9,394	+$8,774	-$8,520

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $601.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,168

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,482

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $500): -$9,621

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,306 (+$8,862 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-586 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,720, the opportunity cost of earning $7,350/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $583.32 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,842, position total $-9,425 (+$8,742 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on APP are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 14 Aug 2026 · 9d · E[net] $114/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $490 (50% normal), 81% survival, breach 19%, $3,400/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $515 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 19% → 12%) for $1,367/mo less (40% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

APP spot $427.89 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $600

14 Aug

40.2%

98%hist 99%

4%hist 1%

-1pp

$85

$283

-$3,117

$26

Sell 1 × $600 40.2% OTM over spot $427.89 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.07 mid)

= $85 credit for the 9d cycle → $283/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $600)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $601.08)

98%

EV / mo

+$185

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$141/mo

median; plan ~$96/mo after 68% keep · $492 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-3.4], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,402

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$612 @ 70% POP

58% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $49.28/sh now → $34.87 mid-life (likely $23.52–$43.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$34.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 103 simulated challenges: the $600 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 9, at $621 (overshoots $21.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$607	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.30/sh	+$30 cycle +$115 [+$115…+$1,365] · 81% credit	69% surv 56%	+$1,070 SAFE cap gain +$19,238
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$612	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.88/sh	-$188 cycle -$103 [-$146…+$1,115] · 69% credit	70% surv 58%	+$1,386 SAFE cap gain +$19,553
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$600	21 Aug 2026	12d left	-$2.51/sh	-$251 cycle -$166 [-$144…+$948] · 68% credit	67% surv 53%	+$31 SAFE cap gain +$18,198

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$283/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	-91%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$215/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $600 is $1 below CC-SS $601.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26
… as % of IC ($12,800)	0.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	0.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,190

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $601.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $600)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $475.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $594.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $594-601.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $601.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$600.00 (2.5σ)	$85	$282	+$18,449	+$875
+2.5%	$615.00 (2.7σ)	$-1,415	$382	+$18,550	+$875
+5%	$630.00 (2.9σ)	$-2,915	$483	+$18,650	+$875

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $601.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,168

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,482

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $600): -$26

Total Position P&L @ SS: $289 (+$18,457 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-586 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$875, the opportunity cost of earning $283/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $583.32 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-1,583 (+$16,584 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

1 × $530

14 Aug

23.9%

91%hist 99%

19%hist 6%

+2pp

$430

$1,433

-$1,967

$6,681

Sell 1 × $530 23.9% OTM over spot $427.89 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $5.10 mid)

= $430 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,433/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $530)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $535.10)

92%

EV / mo

+$673

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

61% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$826/mo

median; plan ~$562/mo after 68% keep · $3,098 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,650

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$552 @ 72% POP

63% survival

Buyback gross: $43.53/sh now → $30.80 mid-life (likely $28.31–$43.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$26.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 423 simulated challenges: the $530 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $547 (overshoots $17.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$537	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.91/sh	+$291 cycle +$721 [-$84…+$811] · 68% credit	69% surv 57%	-$5,793 NOT cap gain +$12,375
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$532	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.28/sh	+$28 cycle +$458 [-$269…+$487] · 54% credit	68% surv 54%	-$6,590 NOT cap gain +$11,578
Max even-money escape in the band	~$542	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.76/sh	+$76 cycle +$506 [-$339…+$555] · 53% credit	70% surv 59%	-$5,474 NOT cap gain +$12,694
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$530	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.11/sh	+$11 cycle +$441 [-$301…+$473] · 52% credit	67% surv 53%	-$6,831 NOT cap gain +$11,336
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$552	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$3.82/sh	-$382 cycle +$48 [-$907…+$26] · 27% credit	72% surv 63%	-$4,865 NOT cap gain +$13,303
budget: banked $430 debit $382 (89% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,498/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,433/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	-53%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	24% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,365/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $530 is $71 below CC-SS $601.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,681
… as % of IC ($12,800)	52.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	13.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,248

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.07/sh (~25% of the $4.30 collected) or spot ≥ $535.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $530)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $475.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $524.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $525-535.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $535.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$530.00 (1.5σ)	$430	$-6,842	+$11,325	+$220
+2.5%	$543.25 (1.7σ)	$-895	$-6,754	+$11,414	-$1,105
+5%	$556.50 (1.8σ)	$-2,220	$-6,665	+$11,503	-$2,430
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (2.3σ)	$-5,370	$-6,454	+$11,714	-$5,580

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $601.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,168

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,482

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $530): -$6,681

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,366 (+$11,802 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-586 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,780, the opportunity cost of earning $1,433/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $583.32 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,902, position total $-6,485 (+$11,682 vs today)

▸

33% normal

1 × $515

14 Aug

20.4%

88%hist 95%

26%hist 18%

+3pp

$610

$2,033

-$1,367

$8,001

Sell 1 × $515 20.4% OTM over spot $427.89 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $6.85 mid)

= $610 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,033/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $515)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $521.85)

89%

EV / mo

+$895

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

69% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,209/mo

median; plan ~$822/mo after 68% keep · $3,806 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

19%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,383

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$542 @ 74% POP

65% survival

Buyback gross: $42.30/sh now → $29.93 mid-life (likely $27.39–$44.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 557 simulated challenges: the $515 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $532 (overshoots $17.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$522	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$3.37/sh	+$337 cycle +$947 [-$142…+$820] · 66% credit	69% surv 57%	-$7,168 NOT cap gain +$11,000
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$517	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.74/sh	+$74 cycle +$684 [-$311…+$509] · 53% credit	68% surv 54%	-$7,963 NOT cap gain +$10,204
Max even-money escape in the band	~$527	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.23/sh	+$123 cycle +$733 [-$393…+$573] · 52% credit	70% surv 59%	-$6,848 NOT cap gain +$11,320
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$515	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.59/sh	+$59 cycle +$669 [-$345…+$492] · 52% credit	67% surv 53%	-$8,204 NOT cap gain +$9,964
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$542	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$4.48/sh	-$448 cycle +$162 [-$1,048…-$66] · 23% credit	74% surv 65%	-$5,818 NOT cap gain +$12,350
budget: banked $610 debit $448 (73% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$162 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,242/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,033/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,965/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $515 is $86 below CC-SS $601.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,001
… as % of IC ($12,800)	62.5%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	16.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,242

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.52/sh (~25% of the $6.10 collected) or spot ≥ $521.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $515)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $475.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $509.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $510-521.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $521.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$515.00 (1.3σ)	$610	$-8,263	+$9,905	+$400
+2.5%	$527.88 (1.4σ)	$-678	$-8,177	+$9,991	-$888
+5%	$540.75 (1.6σ)	$-1,965	$-8,090	+$10,077	-$2,175
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (2.3σ)	$-6,690	$-7,774	+$10,394	-$6,900

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $601.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,168

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,482

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $515): -$8,001

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,686 (+$10,482 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-586 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,100, the opportunity cost of earning $2,033/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $583.32 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,222, position total $-7,805 (+$10,362 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

1 × $490

14 Aug

14.5%

81%hist 95%

40%hist 32%

+6pp

$1,020

$3,400

—

$10,091

Sell 1 × $490 14.5% OTM over spot $427.89 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $11.10 mid)

= $1,020 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,400/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $490)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $501.10)

84%

EV / mo

+$1,241

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,609/mo

median; plan ~$1,094/mo after 68% keep · $5,858 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,828

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$537 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $40.25/sh now → $28.48 mid-life (likely $29.34–$45.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$18.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 910 simulated challenges: the $490 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $507 (overshoots $16.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$492	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$6.18/sh	+$618 cycle +$1,638 [+$6…+$893] · 75% credit	68% surv 55%	-$9,677 NOT cap gain +$8,491
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$492	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.46/sh	+$146 cycle +$1,166 [-$369…+$369] · 44% credit	68% surv 54%	-$10,149 NOT cap gain +$8,018
Max even-money escape in the band	~$502	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.92/sh	+$192 cycle +$1,212 [-$490…+$419] · 43% credit	71% surv 59%	-$9,036 NOT cap gain +$9,131
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$490	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.33/sh	+$133 cycle +$1,153 [-$405…+$359] · 42% credit	67% surv 53%	-$10,388 NOT cap gain +$7,780
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$537	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$10.05/sh	-$1,005 cycle +$15 [-$1,952…-$919] · 5% credit	78% surv 72%	-$6,498 NOT cap gain +$11,669
budget: banked $1,020 debit $1,005 (99% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,072/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,400/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	+13%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	56% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,331/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $490 is $111 below CC-SS $601.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,091
… as % of IC ($12,800)	78.8%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	20.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,258

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.55/sh (~25% of the $10.20 collected) or spot ≥ $501.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $490)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $475.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $485.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $485-501.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $501.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$490.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,020	$-10,520	+$7,647	+$810
+2.5%	$502.25 (1.1σ)	$-205	$-10,438	+$7,729	-$415
+5%	$514.50 (1.2σ)	$-1,430	$-10,356	+$7,811	-$1,640
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (2.3σ)	$-8,780	$-9,864	+$8,304	-$8,990

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $601.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,168

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,482

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $490): -$10,091

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,776 (+$8,392 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-586 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,190, the opportunity cost of earning $3,400/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $583.32 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,312, position total $-9,895 (+$8,272 vs today)

▸

100% normal

1 × $455

14 Aug

6.3%

67%hist 78%

70%hist 59%

+9pp

$1,850

$6,167

+$2,767

$12,761

Sell 1 × $455 6.3% OTM over spot $427.89 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $21.25 mid)

= $1,850 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,167/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $455)

67%

Breach risk

33%

POP (stays ≤ $476.25)

76%

EV / mo

+$1,306

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

71% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,344/mo

median; plan ~$1,594/mo after 68% keep · $6,177 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

54%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$794

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$527 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $37.37/sh now → $26.44 mid-life (likely $33.32–$46.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $18.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,632 simulated challenges: the $455 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $470 (overshoots $15.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$457	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$6.96/sh	+$696 cycle +$2,546 [-$70…+$469] · 67% credit	69% surv 55%	-$12,504 NOT cap gain +$5,663
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$455	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$2.23/sh	+$223 cycle +$2,073 [-$451…+$11] · 26% credit	67% surv 53%	-$13,202 NOT cap gain +$4,966
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$460	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.52/sh	+$52 cycle +$1,902 [-$647…-$179] · 18% credit	68% surv 56%	-$12,881 NOT cap gain +$5,286
Max even-money escape in the band	~$472	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.64/sh	+$64 cycle +$1,914 [-$826…-$230] · 18% credit	72% surv 61%	-$11,535 NOT cap gain +$6,632
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$527	21 Aug 2026	12d left	-$18.08/sh	-$1,808 cycle +$42 [-$3,088…-$2,268]	85% surv 83%	-$7,539 NOT cap gain +$10,628
budget: banked $1,850 debit $1,808 (98% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,090/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,167/mo
vs 50% target ($3,020/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($6,039/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,098/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $455 is $146 below CC-SS $601.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,761
… as % of IC ($12,800)	99.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	26.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-18,442

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $4.62/sh (~25% of the $18.50 collected) or spot ≥ $476.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $455)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $475.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $450.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $450-476.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $476.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$455.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,850	$-13,425	+$4,743	+$1,640
+2.5%	$466.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$713	$-13,349	+$4,819	+$503
+5%	$477.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-425	$-13,272	+$4,895	-$635
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (2.3σ)	$-11,450	$-12,534	+$5,634	-$11,660

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $601.11, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,168

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,482

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $455): -$12,761

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,446 (+$5,722 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-586 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,860, the opportunity cost of earning $6,167/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $583.32 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,982, position total $-12,565 (+$5,602 vs today)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (67 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 67 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.067 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,482 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-586

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$525	2d	7 Aug 2026	$2.25	1/1	$3,375	$3,306	94%	95%	+$2,139	-$7,386	57.7%	$-7,071 (vs do-nothing $-6,485)
$520	2d	7 Aug 2026	$2.80	1/1	$4,200	$4,131	93%	94%	+$2,673	-$7,831	61.2%	$-7,516 (vs do-nothing $-6,930)
$510	2d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	1/1	$4,950	$4,881	91%	92%	+$2,656	-$8,781	68.6%	$-8,466 (vs do-nothing $-7,880)
$505	2d	7 Aug 2026	$3.90	1/1	$5,850	$5,781	90%	91%	+$3,060	-$9,221	72.0%	$-8,906 (vs do-nothing $-8,320)
$500	2d	7 Aug 2026	$4.90	1/1	$7,350	$7,281	89%	90%	+$3,975	-$9,621	75.2%	$-9,306 (vs do-nothing $-8,720)
$495	2d	7 Aug 2026	$5.20	1/1	$7,800	$7,731	87%	89%	+$3,737	-$10,091	78.8%	$-9,776 (vs do-nothing $-9,190)
$490	2d	7 Aug 2026	$6.00	1/1	$9,000	$8,931	85%	88%	+$4,134	-$10,511	82.1%	$-10,196 (vs do-nothing $-9,610)
$485	2d	7 Aug 2026	$7.10	1/1	$10,650	$10,581	84%	86%	+$4,851	-$10,901	85.2%	$-10,586 (vs do-nothing $-10,000)
$480	2d	7 Aug 2026	$8.00	1/1	$12,000	$11,931	82%	85%	+$5,122	-$11,311	88.4%	$-10,996 (vs do-nothing $-10,410)
$490	9d	14 Aug 2026	$10.20	1/1	$3,400	$3,331	81%	84%	+$1,241	-$10,091	78.8%	$-9,776 (vs do-nothing $-9,190)
$475	2d	7 Aug 2026	$8.60	1/1	$12,900	$12,831	80%	83%	+$4,783	-$11,751	91.8%	$-11,436 (vs do-nothing $-10,850)
$485	9d	14 Aug 2026	$10.00	1/1	$3,333	$3,265	79%	83%	+$894	-$10,611	82.9%	$-10,296 (vs do-nothing $-9,710)
$480	9d	14 Aug 2026	$12.00	1/1	$4,000	$3,931	77%	82%	+$1,249	-$10,911	85.2%	$-10,596 (vs do-nothing $-10,010)

Show 54 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$470	2d	7 Aug 2026	$10.20	1/1	$15,300	$15,231	77%	82%	+$5,767	-$12,091	94.5%	$-11,776 (vs do-nothing $-11,190)
$475	9d	14 Aug 2026	$13.00	1/1	$4,333	$4,265	76%	81%	+$1,237	-$11,311	88.4%	$-10,996 (vs do-nothing $-10,410)
$465	2d	7 Aug 2026	$11.60	1/1	$17,400	$17,331	75%	81%	+$6,257	-$12,451	97.3%	$-12,136 (vs do-nothing $-11,550)
$470	9d	14 Aug 2026	$14.00	1/1	$4,667	$4,598	74%	80%	+$1,189	-$11,711	91.5%	$-11,396 (vs do-nothing $-10,810)
$475	16d	21 Aug 2026	$16.30	1/1	$3,056	$2,988	73%	79%	+$694	-$10,981	85.8%	$-10,666 (vs do-nothing $-10,080)
$460	2d	7 Aug 2026	$12.40	1/1	$18,600	$18,531	72%	79%	+$5,637	-$12,871	100.6%	$-12,556 (vs do-nothing $-11,970)
$470	16d	21 Aug 2026	$17.90	1/1	$3,356	$3,288	72%	78%	+$755	-$11,321	88.4%	$-11,006 (vs do-nothing $-10,420)
$465	9d	14 Aug 2026	$15.40	1/1	$5,133	$5,065	71%	78%	+$1,236	-$12,071	94.3%	$-11,756 (vs do-nothing $-11,170)
$465	16d	21 Aug 2026	$19.00	1/1	$3,562	$3,494	70%	77%	+$702	-$11,711	91.5%	$-11,396 (vs do-nothing $-10,810)
$455	2d	7 Aug 2026	$14.10	1/1	$21,150	$21,081	70%	77%	+$6,142	-$13,201	103.1%	$-12,886 (vs do-nothing $-12,300)
$460	9d	14 Aug 2026	$16.80	1/1	$5,600	$5,531	69%	77%	+$1,243	-$12,431	97.1%	$-12,116 (vs do-nothing $-11,530)
$460	16d	21 Aug 2026	$21.10	1/1	$3,956	$3,888	68%	76%	+$816	-$12,001	93.8%	$-11,686 (vs do-nothing $-11,100)
$455	9d	14 Aug 2026	$18.50	1/1	$6,167	$6,098	67%	76%	+$1,306	-$12,761	99.7%	$-12,446 (vs do-nothing $-11,860)
$460	23d	28 Aug 2026	$24.60	1/1	$3,209	$3,140	67%	76%	+$598	-$11,651	91.0%	$-11,336 (vs do-nothing $-10,750)
$450	2d	7 Aug 2026	$16.00	1/1	$24,000	$23,931	67%	76%	+$6,706	-$13,511	105.6%	$-13,196 (vs do-nothing $-12,610)
$455	16d	21 Aug 2026	$22.10	1/1	$4,144	$4,075	66%	75%	+$702	-$12,401	96.9%	$-12,086 (vs do-nothing $-11,500)
$455	23d	28 Aug 2026	$26.30	1/1	$3,430	$3,362	65%	75%	+$598	-$11,981	93.6%	$-11,666 (vs do-nothing $-11,080)
$450	9d	14 Aug 2026	$20.80	1/1	$6,933	$6,865	65%	74%	+$1,524	-$13,031	101.8%	$-12,716 (vs do-nothing $-12,130)
$450	16d	21 Aug 2026	$24.70	1/1	$4,631	$4,563	64%	74%	+$865	-$12,641	98.8%	$-12,326 (vs do-nothing $-11,740)
$445	2d	7 Aug 2026	$17.10	1/1	$25,650	$25,581	64%	74%	+$5,817	-$13,901	108.6%	$-13,586 (vs do-nothing $-13,000)
$450	23d	28 Aug 2026	$27.40	1/1	$3,574	$3,505	63%	73%	+$507	-$12,371	96.6%	$-12,056 (vs do-nothing $-11,470)
$445	9d	14 Aug 2026	$21.30	1/1	$7,100	$7,031	62%	73%	+$1,095	-$13,481	105.3%	$-13,166 (vs do-nothing $-12,580)
$442.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$17.90	1/1	$26,850	$26,781	62%	73%	+$5,649	-$14,071	109.9%	$-13,756 (vs do-nothing $-13,170)
$445	16d	21 Aug 2026	$26.00	1/1	$4,875	$4,806	62%	73%	+$762	-$13,011	101.6%	$-12,696 (vs do-nothing $-12,110)
$445	23d	28 Aug 2026	$29.80	1/1	$3,887	$3,818	61%	73%	+$570	-$12,631	98.7%	$-12,316 (vs do-nothing $-11,730)
$440	2d	7 Aug 2026	$19.40	1/1	$29,100	$29,031	61%	73%	+$6,462	-$14,171	110.7%	$-13,856 (vs do-nothing $-13,270)
$442.50	16d	21 Aug 2026	$26.40	1/1	$4,950	$4,881	61%	72%	+$654	-$13,221	103.3%	$-12,906 (vs do-nothing $-12,320)
$440	9d	14 Aug 2026	$25.00	1/1	$8,333	$8,265	60%	72%	+$1,683	-$13,611	106.3%	$-13,296 (vs do-nothing $-12,710)
$440	16d	21 Aug 2026	$29.00	1/1	$5,438	$5,369	59%	72%	+$953	-$13,211	103.2%	$-12,896 (vs do-nothing $-12,310)
$440	23d	28 Aug 2026	$31.90	1/1	$4,161	$4,092	59%	72%	+$581	-$12,921	100.9%	$-12,606 (vs do-nothing $-12,020)
$437.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$20.10	1/1	$30,150	$30,081	59%	72%	+$6,007	-$14,351	112.1%	$-14,036 (vs do-nothing $-13,450)
$437.50	16d	21 Aug 2026	$28.30	1/1	$5,306	$5,238	58%	71%	+$627	-$13,531	105.7%	$-13,216 (vs do-nothing $-12,630)
$435	2d	7 Aug 2026	$22.10	1/1	$33,150	$33,081	57%	71%	+$7,432	-$14,401	112.5%	$-14,086 (vs do-nothing $-13,500)
$435	23d	28 Aug 2026	$34.00	1/1	$4,435	$4,366	57%	71%	+$576	-$13,211	103.2%	$-12,896 (vs do-nothing $-12,310)
$435	16d	21 Aug 2026	$30.00	1/1	$5,625	$5,556	57%	71%	+$744	-$13,611	106.3%	$-13,296 (vs do-nothing $-12,710)
$435	9d	14 Aug 2026	$27.40	1/1	$9,133	$9,065	57%	71%	+$1,787	-$13,871	108.4%	$-13,556 (vs do-nothing $-12,970)
$432.50	16d	21 Aug 2026	$31.00	1/1	$5,812	$5,744	56%	70%	+$724	-$13,761	107.5%	$-13,446 (vs do-nothing $-12,860)
$432.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$22.10	1/1	$33,150	$33,081	56%	70%	+$5,786	-$14,651	114.5%	$-14,336 (vs do-nothing $-13,750)
$430	23d	28 Aug 2026	$36.10	1/1	$4,709	$4,640	55%	70%	+$557	-$13,501	105.5%	$-13,186 (vs do-nothing $-12,600)
$430	16d	21 Aug 2026	$32.90	1/1	$6,169	$6,100	55%	70%	+$867	-$13,821	108.0%	$-13,506 (vs do-nothing $-12,920)
$430	9d	14 Aug 2026	$27.90	1/1	$9,300	$9,231	55%	70%	+$1,205	-$14,321	111.9%	$-14,006 (vs do-nothing $-13,420)
$430	2d	7 Aug 2026	$25.00	1/1	$37,500	$37,431	54%	70%	+$8,418	-$14,611	114.1%	$-14,296 (vs do-nothing $-13,710)
$427.50	16d	21 Aug 2026	$32.60	1/1	$6,112	$6,044	54%	69%	+$590	-$14,101	110.2%	$-13,786 (vs do-nothing $-13,200)
$425	23d	28 Aug 2026	$37.70	1/1	$4,917	$4,849	53%	69%	+$457	-$13,841	108.1%	$-13,526 (vs do-nothing $-12,940)
$425	16d	21 Aug 2026	$34.70	1/1	$6,506	$6,438	53%	68%	+$757	-$14,141	110.5%	$-13,826 (vs do-nothing $-13,240)
$427.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$24.40	1/1	$36,600	$36,531	53%	69%	+$5,728	-$14,921	116.6%	$-14,606 (vs do-nothing $-14,020)
$425	9d	14 Aug 2026	$30.00	1/1	$10,000	$9,931	52%	68%	+$1,102	-$14,611	114.1%	$-14,296 (vs do-nothing $-13,710)
$422.50	16d	21 Aug 2026	$35.50	1/1	$6,656	$6,588	52%	68%	+$674	-$14,311	111.8%	$-13,996 (vs do-nothing $-13,410)
$420	23d	28 Aug 2026	$40.00	1/1	$5,217	$5,149	51%	68%	+$433	-$14,111	110.2%	$-13,796 (vs do-nothing $-13,210)
$425	2d	7 Aug 2026	$27.00	1/1	$40,500	$40,431	51%	68%	+$7,764	-$14,911	116.5%	$-14,596 (vs do-nothing $-14,010)
$420	16d	21 Aug 2026	$38.00	1/1	$7,125	$7,056	50%	68%	+$903	-$14,311	111.8%	$-13,996 (vs do-nothing $-13,410)
$420	9d	14 Aug 2026	$33.20	1/1	$11,067	$10,998	49%	67%	+$1,313	-$14,791	115.6%	$-14,476 (vs do-nothing $-13,890)
$422.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$27.10	1/1	$40,650	$40,581	49%	67%	+$5,977	-$15,151	118.4%	$-14,836 (vs do-nothing $-14,250)
$420	2d	7 Aug 2026	$30.00	1/1	$45,000	$44,931	48%	67%	+$8,318	-$15,111	118.1%	$-14,796 (vs do-nothing $-14,210)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-05 21:42