1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $609.47 (banked floor $589.45) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $4,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $153/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-27,310 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 1 × $375 | 75% | $2,362 | $-49 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $435 | 14 Aug | 8d | 24.6% | 96%hist 99% | 8%hist 1% | +1pp | $55 | $206 | -$2,156 | $17,392 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $435 24.6% OTM over spot $349.16 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.18 mid) = $55 credit for the 8d cycle → $206/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $435) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $436.18) 96% EV / mo +$58 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 29% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1/mo median; plan ~$-1/mo after 68% keep · $-7 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.8-5.1], measured ONLY among the 29% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,571 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $446 @ 68% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $22.99/sh now → $16.26 mid-life (likely $11.82–$21.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$15.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 124 simulated challenges: the $435 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $445 (overshoots $10.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $435 is $174 below CC-SS $609.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $436.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $435)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $464.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $609.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,567 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $435): -$17,392 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,135 (+$10,175 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,680 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,455, the opportunity cost of earning $206/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $460.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,472, position total $-18,015 (+$9,295 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $407.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 16.7% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +3pp | $190 | $712 | -$1,650 | $20,007 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $407.50 16.7% OTM over spot $349.16 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $4.30 mid) = $190 credit for the 8d cycle → $712/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $407.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $411.80) 92% EV / mo +$236 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $295/mo median; plan ~$200/mo after 68% keep · $2,100 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.1-5.2], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,333 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $423 @ 70% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $21.54/sh now → $15.23 mid-life (likely $12.67–$22.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $408 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $417 (overshoots $9.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $407.50 is $202 below CC-SS $609.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.90 collected) or spot ≥ $411.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $408)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $464.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $609.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,567 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $407.50): -$20,007 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,750 (+$7,560 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,680 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,070, the opportunity cost of earning $712/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $460.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,087, position total $-20,630 (+$6,680 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $390 | 14 Aug | 8d | 11.7% | 84%hist 95% | 34%hist 22% | +6pp | $370 | $1,388 | -$975 | $21,577 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $390 11.7% OTM over spot $349.16 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $4.55 mid) = $370 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,388/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $390) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $394.55) 86% EV / mo +$377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $594/mo median; plan ~$404/mo after 68% keep · $4,409 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.5-6.0], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,088 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $411 @ 72% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $20.61/sh now → $14.58 mid-life (likely $13.99–$22.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 723 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $400 (overshoots $9.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $390 is $219 below CC-SS $609.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.93/sh (~25% of the $3.70 collected) or spot ≥ $394.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $390)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $464.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $609.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,567 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $390): -$21,577 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,320 (+$5,990 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,680 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,640, the opportunity cost of earning $1,388/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $460.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,657, position total $-22,200 (+$5,110 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $375 | 14 Aug | 8d | 7.4% | 75%hist 92% | 53%hist 43% | +10pp | $630 | $2,362 | — | $22,817 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $375 7.4% OTM over spot $349.16 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $7.65 mid) = $630 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,362/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $382.65) 80% EV / mo +$460 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 43% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $814/mo median; plan ~$554/mo after 68% keep · $6,045 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.4-6.1], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$772 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $411 @ 77% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $19.82/sh now → $14.02 mid-life (likely $15.96–$22.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,182 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $384 (overshoots $8.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $375 is $234 below CC-SS $609.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.57/sh (~25% of the $6.30 collected) or spot ≥ $382.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $464.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $609.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,567 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $375): -$22,817 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,560 (+$4,750 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,680 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,880, the opportunity cost of earning $2,362/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $460.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,897, position total $-23,440 (+$3,870 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $357.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 2.4% | 60%hist 78% | 83%hist 81% | +11pp | $1,130 | $4,238 | +$1,875 | $24,067 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $357.50 2.4% OTM over spot $349.16 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $12.80 mid) = $1,130 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,238/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $357.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $370.30) 71% EV / mo +$429 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,081/mo median; plan ~$735/mo after 68% keep · $8,207 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.1-5.8], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$206 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $408 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $18.89/sh now → $13.36 mid-life (likely $17.74–$24.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,981 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $367 (overshoots $9.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $357.50 is $252 below CC-SS $609.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.83/sh (~25% of the $11.30 collected) or spot ≥ $370.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $358)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $464.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $609.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,310 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,567 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $357.50): -$24,067 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,810 (+$3,500 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,680 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,130, the opportunity cost of earning $4,238/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $460.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,147, position total $-24,690 (+$2,620 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.059 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$27,567 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,680
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $375 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.30 | 1/1 | $2,362 | $2,210 | 75% | 80% | +$460 | -$22,817 | 178.3% | $-22,560 (vs do-nothing $-14,880) |
| $370 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.50 | 1/1 | $2,062 | $1,910 | 71% | 78% | $-272 | -$23,397 | 182.8% | $-23,140 (vs do-nothing $-15,460) |
| $367.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.30 | 1/1 | $2,362 | $2,210 | 69% | 77% | $-219 | -$23,567 | 184.1% | $-23,310 (vs do-nothing $-15,630) |
| $370 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.00 | 1/1 | $2,000 | $1,847 | 67% | 74% | $-122 | -$22,947 | 179.3% | $-22,690 (vs do-nothing $-15,010) |
| $365 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.40 | 1/1 | $2,775 | $2,622 | 67% | 75% | $-76 | -$23,707 | 185.2% | $-23,450 (vs do-nothing $-15,770) |
| $362.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.40 | 1/1 | $3,150 | $2,997 | 65% | 74% | +$5 | -$23,857 | 186.4% | $-23,600 (vs do-nothing $-15,920) |
| $365 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $12.00 | 1/1 | $2,400 | $2,247 | 64% | 73% | $-51 | -$23,247 | 181.6% | $-22,990 (vs do-nothing $-15,310) |
| $365 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $15.00 | 1/1 | $2,045 | $1,893 | 63% | 72% | $-169 | -$22,947 | 179.3% | $-22,690 (vs do-nothing $-15,010) |
| $360 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $9.30 | 1/1 | $3,488 | $3,335 | 63% | 72% | +$23 | -$24,017 | 187.6% | $-23,760 (vs do-nothing $-16,080) |
| $360 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $14.00 | 1/1 | $2,800 | $2,647 | 61% | 71% | $-17 | -$23,547 | 184.0% | $-23,290 (vs do-nothing $-15,610) |
| $357.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $11.30 | 1/1 | $4,238 | $4,085 | 60% | 71% | +$429 | -$24,067 | 188.0% | $-23,810 (vs do-nothing $-16,130) |
| $360 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $17.00 | 1/1 | $2,318 | $2,165 | 60% | 71% | $-154 | -$23,247 | 181.6% | $-22,990 (vs do-nothing $-15,310) |
| $355 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $11.40 | 1/1 | $4,275 | $4,122 | 58% | 71% | +$94 | -$24,307 | 189.9% | $-24,050 (vs do-nothing $-16,370) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $355 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $16.20 | 1/1 | $3,240 | $3,087 | 57% | 70% | +$18 | -$23,827 | 186.2% | $-23,570 (vs do-nothing $-15,890) |
| $355 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $19.00 | 1/1 | $2,591 | $2,438 | 57% | 70% | $-57 | -$23,547 | 184.0% | $-23,290 (vs do-nothing $-15,610) |
| $352.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.00 | 1/1 | $4,500 | $4,347 | 56% | 70% | $-81 | -$24,497 | 191.4% | $-24,240 (vs do-nothing $-16,560) |
| $350 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $23.00 | 1/1 | $3,136 | $2,984 | 54% | 69% | +$192 | -$23,647 | 184.7% | $-23,390 (vs do-nothing $-15,710) |
| $350 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $20.00 | 1/1 | $4,000 | $3,847 | 54% | 68% | +$332 | -$23,947 | 187.1% | $-23,690 (vs do-nothing $-16,010) |
| $350 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $14.30 | 1/1 | $5,362 | $5,210 | 53% | 68% | +$353 | -$24,517 | 191.5% | $-24,260 (vs do-nothing $-16,580) |
| $345 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $24.00 | 1/1 | $3,273 | $3,120 | 51% | 67% | +$5 | -$24,047 | 187.9% | $-23,790 (vs do-nothing $-16,110) |
| $347.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $15.20 | 1/1 | $5,700 | $5,547 | 51% | 68% | +$233 | -$24,677 | 192.8% | $-24,420 (vs do-nothing $-16,740) |
| $345 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $22.10 | 1/1 | $4,420 | $4,267 | 50% | 67% | +$263 | -$24,237 | 189.4% | $-23,980 (vs do-nothing $-16,300) |
| $345 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $16.50 | 1/1 | $6,188 | $6,035 | 48% | 67% | +$235 | -$24,797 | 193.7% | $-24,540 (vs do-nothing $-16,860) |
| $342.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $17.90 | 1/1 | $6,712 | $6,560 | 46% | 64% | +$244 | -$24,907 | 194.6% | $-24,650 (vs do-nothing $-16,970) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.