1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $612.81 (banked floor $592.96) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $2,409/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $76/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-31,950 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x $360C 4 Sep 2026 | U18827291 | $2.37 | $237 | 2026-08-19 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 4 Sep 2026 · 2d | 1 × $330 | 87% | $1,500 | $994 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 11 Sep 2026 · 9d | 1 × $330 | 76% | $1,267 | $72 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $340 | 4 Sep | 2d | 8.6% | 96%hist 96% | 9%hist 2% | +3pp | $30 | $450 | -$1,050 | $27,251 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $340 8.6% OTM over spot $313.05 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.38 mid) = $30 credit for the 2d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $340) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $340.38) 96% EV / mo +$267 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $305/mo median; plan ~$207/mo after 68% keep · $2,337 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.2-6.3], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$489 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $372 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.34/sh now → $5.19 mid-life (likely $5.30–$9.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 121 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $345 (overshoots $5.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $340 is $273 below CC-SS $612.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $340.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $340)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,674 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $340): -$27,251 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,527 (+$5,423 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,552 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,975, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $440.68 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,038, position total $-28,076 (+$3,874 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $335 | 4 Sep | 2d | 7.0% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 13% | +4pp | $50 | $750 | -$750 | $27,731 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $335 7.0% OTM over spot $313.05 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.68 mid) = $50 credit for the 2d cycle → $750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $335) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $335.68) 93% EV / mo +$326 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $486/mo median; plan ~$330/mo after 68% keep · $3,907 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.2-6.4], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$461 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $372 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.23/sh now → $5.11 mid-life (likely $5.60–$10.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 215 simulated challenges: the $335 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $341 (overshoots $6.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $335 is $278 below CC-SS $612.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $335.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $335)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,674 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $335): -$27,731 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,007 (+$4,943 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,552 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,455, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $440.68 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,518, position total $-28,556 (+$3,394 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 33% normal | 1 × $330 | 4 Sep | 2d | 5.4% | 87%hist 86% | 27%hist 27% | +11pp | $100 | $1,500 | — | $28,181 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $330 5.4% OTM over spot $313.05 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $1.15 mid) = $100 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $330) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $331.15) 88% EV / mo +$584 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 26% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $935/mo median; plan ~$635/mo after 68% keep · $7,575 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [3.8-7.2], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$404 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $367 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.12/sh now → $5.04 mid-life (likely $5.52–$10.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 471 simulated challenges: the $330 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $336 (overshoots $5.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $330 is $283 below CC-SS $612.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $331.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $330)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,674 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $330): -$28,181 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,457 (+$4,493 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,552 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,905, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $440.68 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,968, position total $-29,006 (+$2,944 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $325 | 4 Sep | 2d | 3.8% | 79%hist 84% | 42%hist 38% | +14pp | $180 | $2,700 | +$1,200 | $28,601 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $325 3.8% OTM over spot $313.05 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $2.00 mid) = $180 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $325) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $327.00) 83% EV / mo +$858 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 30% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,418/mo median; plan ~$964/mo after 68% keep · $11,168 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [3.4-7.0], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$316 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $367 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.02/sh now → $4.96 mid-life (likely $5.52–$10.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 727 simulated challenges: the $325 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $331 (overshoots $5.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $325 is $288 below CC-SS $612.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $327.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $325)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,674 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $325): -$28,601 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,877 (+$4,073 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,552 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,325, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $440.68 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,388, position total $-29,426 (+$2,524 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $370 | 11 Sep | 9d | 18.2% | 97%hist 96% | 5%hist 2% | +0pp | $25 | $83 | -$1,183 | $24,256 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $370 18.2% OTM over spot $313.05 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.50 mid) = $25 credit for the 9d cycle → $83/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $370) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $370.50) 97% EV / mo +$45 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 12% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-5/mo median; plan ~$-3/mo after 68% keep · $-39 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$927 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $382 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.46/sh now → $9.52 mid-life (likely $6.86–$11.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 65 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 9, at $376 (overshoots $5.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $370 is $243 below CC-SS $612.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $370.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $370)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,674 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $370): -$24,256 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,532 (+$8,418 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,552 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,980, the opportunity cost of earning $83/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $440.68 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,043, position total $-25,081 (+$6,869 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $347.50 | 11 Sep | 9d | 11.0% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 13% | +1pp | $115 | $383 | -$883 | $26,416 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $347.50 11.0% OTM over spot $313.05 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.42 mid) = $115 credit for the 9d cycle → $383/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $347.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $348.93) 91% EV / mo +$142 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 12% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $195/mo median; plan ~$133/mo after 68% keep · $1,711 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$779 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $364 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.65/sh now → $8.94 mid-life (likely $7.73–$12.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 351 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $352 (overshoots $4.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $347.50 is $265 below CC-SS $612.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $348.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $348)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,674 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $347.50): -$26,416 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,692 (+$6,258 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,552 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,140, the opportunity cost of earning $383/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $440.68 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,203, position total $-27,241 (+$4,709 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $335 | 11 Sep | 9d | 7.0% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 31% | +3pp | $255 | $850 | -$417 | $27,526 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $335 7.0% OTM over spot $313.05 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.97 mid) = $255 credit for the 9d cycle → $850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $335) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $337.98) 84% EV / mo +$203 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 13% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $398/mo median; plan ~$271/mo after 68% keep · $3,495 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.4 mo, measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$607 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $357 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.19/sh now → $8.62 mid-life (likely $8.64–$13.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 867 simulated challenges: the $335 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $340 (overshoots $5.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $335 is $278 below CC-SS $612.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.55 collected) or spot ≥ $337.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $335)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,674 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $335): -$27,526 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,802 (+$5,148 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,552 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,250, the opportunity cost of earning $850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $440.68 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,313, position total $-28,351 (+$3,599 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $330 | 11 Sep | 9d | 5.4% | 76%hist 84% | 50%hist 43% | +6pp | $380 | $1,267 | — | $27,901 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $330 5.4% OTM over spot $313.05 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $4.15 mid) = $380 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,267/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $330) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $334.15) 80% EV / mo +$330 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $535/mo median; plan ~$364/mo after 68% keep · $4,729 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.7 mo [4.7-7.8], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$469 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $357 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.01/sh now → $8.49 mid-life (likely $9.19–$13.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,204 simulated challenges: the $330 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $335 (overshoots $5.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $330 is $283 below CC-SS $612.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.95/sh (~25% of the $3.80 collected) or spot ≥ $334.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $330)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,674 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $330): -$27,901 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,177 (+$4,773 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,552 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,625, the opportunity cost of earning $1,267/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $440.68 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,688, position total $-28,726 (+$3,224 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $317.50 | 11 Sep | 9d | 1.4% | 59%hist 70% | 85%hist 79% | +5pp | $770 | $2,567 | +$1,300 | $28,761 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $317.50 1.4% OTM over spot $313.05 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $8.50 mid) = $770 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,567/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $317.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $326.00) 71% EV / mo +$401 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $764/mo median; plan ~$520/mo after 68% keep · $6,640 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.7-6.9], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$47 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $369 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.55/sh now → $8.17 mid-life (likely $11.04–$15.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,054 simulated challenges: the $318 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $323 (overshoots $5.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $317.50 is $295 below CC-SS $612.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.93/sh (~25% of the $7.70 collected) or spot ≥ $326.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $318)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-31,950 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,674 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $317.50): -$28,761 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,037 (+$3,913 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,552 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,485, the opportunity cost of earning $2,567/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $440.68 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,548, position total $-29,586 (+$2,364 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.090 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,674 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-16,552
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $330 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.00 | 1/1 | $1,500 | $1,424 | 87% | 88% | +$584 | -$28,181 | 220.2% | $-27,457 (vs do-nothing $-10,905) |
| $325 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.80 | 1/1 | $2,700 | $2,624 | 79% | 83% | +$858 | -$28,601 | 223.4% | $-27,877 (vs do-nothing $-11,325) |
| $330 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 1/1 | $1,267 | $1,191 | 76% | 80% | +$330 | -$27,901 | 218.0% | $-27,177 (vs do-nothing $-10,625) |
| $327.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.10 | 1/1 | $1,367 | $1,291 | 73% | 78% | +$247 | -$28,121 | 219.7% | $-27,397 (vs do-nothing $-10,845) |
| $330 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.90 | 1/1 | $1,294 | $1,218 | 70% | 77% | +$272 | -$27,591 | 215.6% | $-26,867 (vs do-nothing $-10,315) |
| $325 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.90 | 1/1 | $1,633 | $1,557 | 69% | 76% | +$302 | -$28,291 | 221.0% | $-27,567 (vs do-nothing $-11,015) |
| $320 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.95 | 1/1 | $4,425 | $4,349 | 69% | 76% | +$975 | -$28,986 | 226.5% | $-28,262 (vs do-nothing $-11,710) |
| $327.50 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.90 | 1/1 | $1,481 | $1,405 | 68% | 76% | +$366 | -$27,741 | 216.7% | $-27,017 (vs do-nothing $-10,465) |
| $330 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.80 | 1/1 | $1,278 | $1,202 | 68% | 76% | +$305 | -$27,301 | 213.3% | $-26,577 (vs do-nothing $-10,025) |
| $322.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 1/1 | $1,900 | $1,824 | 66% | 75% | +$325 | -$28,461 | 222.4% | $-27,737 (vs do-nothing $-11,185) |
| $325 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $8.90 | 1/1 | $1,669 | $1,593 | 66% | 74% | +$408 | -$27,891 | 217.9% | $-27,167 (vs do-nothing $-10,615) |
| $325 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.50 | 1/1 | $1,500 | $1,424 | 64% | 74% | +$319 | -$27,631 | 215.9% | $-26,907 (vs do-nothing $-10,355) |
| $322.50 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $9.70 | 1/1 | $1,819 | $1,743 | 63% | 73% | +$398 | -$28,061 | 219.2% | $-27,337 (vs do-nothing $-10,785) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $320 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.70 | 1/1 | $2,233 | $2,157 | 62% | 72% | +$381 | -$28,611 | 223.5% | $-27,887 (vs do-nothing $-11,335) |
| $320 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $10.40 | 1/1 | $1,950 | $1,874 | 60% | 72% | +$355 | -$28,241 | 220.6% | $-27,517 (vs do-nothing $-10,965) |
| $320 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $13.40 | 1/1 | $1,748 | $1,672 | 59% | 71% | +$325 | -$27,941 | 218.3% | $-27,217 (vs do-nothing $-10,665) |
| $317.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $7.70 | 1/1 | $2,567 | $2,491 | 59% | 71% | +$401 | -$28,761 | 224.7% | $-28,037 (vs do-nothing $-11,485) |
| $317.50 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $10.70 | 1/1 | $2,006 | $1,930 | 57% | 70% | +$222 | -$28,461 | 222.4% | $-27,737 (vs do-nothing $-11,185) |
| $315 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.70 | 1/1 | $7,050 | $6,974 | 56% | 70% | +$1,024 | -$29,311 | 229.0% | $-28,587 (vs do-nothing $-12,035) |
| $315 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $8.60 | 1/1 | $2,867 | $2,791 | 55% | 69% | +$349 | -$28,921 | 225.9% | $-28,197 (vs do-nothing $-11,645) |
| $315 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $15.60 | 1/1 | $2,035 | $1,959 | 54% | 69% | +$332 | -$28,221 | 220.5% | $-27,497 (vs do-nothing $-10,945) |
| $315 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $12.90 | 1/1 | $2,419 | $2,343 | 54% | 69% | +$429 | -$28,491 | 222.6% | $-27,767 (vs do-nothing $-11,215) |
| $312.50 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $13.40 | 1/1 | $2,512 | $2,437 | 52% | 67% | +$302 | -$28,691 | 224.1% | $-27,967 (vs do-nothing $-11,415) |
| $312.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $9.60 | 1/1 | $3,200 | $3,124 | 51% | 67% | +$291 | -$29,071 | 227.1% | $-28,347 (vs do-nothing $-11,795) |
| $310 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $18.10 | 1/1 | $2,361 | $2,285 | 50% | 67% | +$340 | -$28,471 | 222.4% | $-27,747 (vs do-nothing $-11,195) |
| $310 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $14.40 | 1/1 | $2,700 | $2,624 | 49% | 66% | +$252 | -$28,841 | 225.3% | $-28,117 (vs do-nothing $-11,565) |
| $310 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $11.10 | 1/1 | $3,700 | $3,624 | 47% | 65% | +$360 | -$29,171 | 227.9% | $-28,447 (vs do-nothing $-11,895) |
| $307.50 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $13.80 | 1/1 | $2,588 | $2,512 | 46% | 64% | $-115 | -$29,151 | 227.7% | $-28,427 (vs do-nothing $-11,875) |
| $307.50 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $11.00 | 1/1 | $3,667 | $3,591 | 43% | 63% | $-145 | -$29,431 | 229.9% | $-28,707 (vs do-nothing $-12,155) |
| $310 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $6.30 | 1/1 | $9,450 | $9,374 | 42% | 63% | $-351 | -$29,651 | 231.6% | $-28,927 (vs do-nothing $-12,375) |
| $307.50 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $7.80 | 1/1 | $11,700 | $11,624 | 36% | 61% | $-462 | -$29,751 | 232.4% | $-29,027 (vs do-nothing $-12,475) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.