1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $611.02 (banked floor $591.17) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $2,740/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $81/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,202 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x $360C 4 Sep 2026 | U18827291 | $2.37 | $237 | 2026-08-19 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 8d | 1 × $345 | 75% | $1,575 | $-75 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $375 | 11 Sep | 8d | 14.3% | 96%hist 96% | 9%hist 2% | +1pp | $35 | $131 | -$1,444 | $23,567 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $375 14.3% OTM over spot $328.00 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.68 mid) = $35 credit for the 8d cycle → $131/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $375.68) 96% EV / mo +$52 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $28/mo median; plan ~$19/mo after 68% keep · $226 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,031 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $377 @ 68% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $15.08/sh now → $10.66 mid-life (likely $7.64–$14.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 165 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $381 (overshoots $5.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $375 is $236 below CC-SS $611.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $375.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,048 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $375): -$23,567 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,722 (+$7,480 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,470, the opportunity cost of earning $131/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $441.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,601, position total $-24,368 (+$5,835 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $365 | 11 Sep | 8d | 11.3% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 13% | +2pp | $105 | $394 | -$1,181 | $24,497 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $365 11.3% OTM over spot $328.00 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.40 mid) = $105 credit for the 8d cycle → $394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $366.40) 93% EV / mo +$192 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $216/mo median; plan ~$147/mo after 68% keep · $1,832 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$933 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $372 @ 69% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.67/sh now → $10.38 mid-life (likely $8.38–$14.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 365 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $371 (overshoots $5.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $365 is $246 below CC-SS $611.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $366.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,048 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $365): -$24,497 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,652 (+$6,550 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,400, the opportunity cost of earning $394/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $441.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,531, position total $-25,298 (+$4,905 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $352.50 | 11 Sep | 8d | 7.5% | 83%hist 86% | 34%hist 31% | +5pp | $245 | $919 | -$656 | $25,607 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $352.50 7.5% OTM over spot $328.00 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $3.33 mid) = $245 credit for the 8d cycle → $919/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $355.82) 86% EV / mo +$323 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $460/mo median; plan ~$313/mo after 68% keep · $3,897 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [4.4-7.6], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$757 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $364 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.17/sh now → $10.02 mid-life (likely $9.72–$15.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 712 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $358 (overshoots $5.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $259 below CC-SS $611.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.61/sh (~25% of the $2.45 collected) or spot ≥ $355.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,048 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $352.50): -$25,607 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,762 (+$5,440 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,510, the opportunity cost of earning $919/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $441.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,641, position total $-26,408 (+$3,795 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $345 | 11 Sep | 8d | 5.2% | 75%hist 84% | 50%hist 43% | +5pp | $420 | $1,575 | — | $26,182 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $345 5.2% OTM over spot $328.00 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $5.35 mid) = $420 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $345) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $350.35) 81% EV / mo +$505 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 19% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $667/mo median; plan ~$454/mo after 68% keep · $5,712 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [4.0-7.2], measured ONLY among the 19% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$561 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $362 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.87/sh now → $9.81 mid-life (likely $10.75–$15.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,190 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $350 (overshoots $5.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $345 is $266 below CC-SS $611.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.05/sh (~25% of the $4.20 collected) or spot ≥ $350.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $345)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,048 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $345): -$26,182 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,337 (+$4,865 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,085, the opportunity cost of earning $1,575/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $441.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,216, position total $-26,983 (+$3,220 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $332.50 | 11 Sep | 8d | 1.4% | 58%hist 69% | 86%hist 79% | +5pp | $770 | $2,888 | +$1,312 | $27,082 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $332.50 1.4% OTM over spot $328.00 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $9.65 mid) = $770 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,888/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $332.50) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $342.15) 72% EV / mo +$384 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $851/mo median; plan ~$579/mo after 68% keep · $7,396 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [4.0-7.4], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$175 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $380 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.37/sh now → $9.45 mid-life (likely $12.67–$17.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,074 simulated challenges: the $332 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $338 (overshoots $5.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $332.50 is $279 below CC-SS $611.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.93/sh (~25% of the $7.70 collected) or spot ≥ $342.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $332)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $338.32 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,202 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,048 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $332.50): -$27,082 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,237 (+$3,965 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,985, the opportunity cost of earning $2,888/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $441.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,116, position total $-27,883 (+$2,320 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.097 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$31,048 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-16,252
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $345 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.20 | 1/1 | $1,575 | $1,494 | 75% | 81% | +$505 | -$26,182 | 204.6% | $-25,337 (vs do-nothing $-9,085) |
| $342.50 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.70 | 1/1 | $1,762 | $1,682 | 72% | 79% | +$478 | -$26,382 | 206.1% | $-25,537 (vs do-nothing $-9,285) |
| $345 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.40 | 1/1 | $1,480 | $1,399 | 70% | 77% | +$367 | -$25,862 | 202.1% | $-25,017 (vs do-nothing $-8,765) |
| $340 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 1/1 | $1,988 | $1,907 | 69% | 77% | +$454 | -$26,572 | 207.6% | $-25,727 (vs do-nothing $-9,475) |
| $337.50 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.00 | 1/1 | $2,250 | $2,169 | 66% | 76% | +$432 | -$26,752 | 209.0% | $-25,907 (vs do-nothing $-9,655) |
| $340 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $9.80 | 1/1 | $1,960 | $1,879 | 65% | 75% | +$554 | -$26,122 | 204.1% | $-25,277 (vs do-nothing $-9,025) |
| $340 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $10.50 | 1/1 | $1,432 | $1,351 | 63% | 73% | +$141 | -$26,052 | 203.5% | $-25,207 (vs do-nothing $-8,955) |
| $335 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.90 | 1/1 | $2,588 | $2,507 | 62% | 73% | +$447 | -$26,912 | 210.3% | $-26,067 (vs do-nothing $-9,815) |
| $335 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $10.60 | 1/1 | $2,120 | $2,039 | 60% | 72% | +$359 | -$26,542 | 207.4% | $-25,697 (vs do-nothing $-9,445) |
| $335 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.80 | 1/1 | $1,609 | $1,528 | 59% | 71% | +$67 | -$26,422 | 206.4% | $-25,577 (vs do-nothing $-9,325) |
| $332.50 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $7.70 | 1/1 | $2,888 | $2,807 | 58% | 72% | +$384 | -$27,082 | 211.6% | $-26,237 (vs do-nothing $-9,985) |
| $332.50 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $11.70 | 1/1 | $2,340 | $2,259 | 57% | 70% | +$378 | -$26,682 | 208.5% | $-25,837 (vs do-nothing $-9,585) |
| $330 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $9.20 | 1/1 | $3,450 | $3,369 | 55% | 70% | +$541 | -$27,182 | 212.4% | $-26,337 (vs do-nothing $-10,085) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $330 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $14.00 | 1/1 | $1,909 | $1,828 | 54% | 69% | +$79 | -$26,702 | 208.6% | $-25,857 (vs do-nothing $-9,605) |
| $330 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $13.20 | 1/1 | $2,640 | $2,559 | 54% | 70% | +$459 | -$26,782 | 209.2% | $-25,937 (vs do-nothing $-9,685) |
| $327.50 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $14.20 | 1/1 | $2,840 | $2,759 | 52% | 69% | +$423 | -$26,932 | 210.4% | $-26,087 (vs do-nothing $-9,835) |
| $327.50 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $10.70 | 1/1 | $4,012 | $3,932 | 51% | 69% | +$655 | -$27,282 | 213.1% | $-26,437 (vs do-nothing $-10,185) |
| $325 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $16.00 | 1/1 | $2,182 | $2,101 | 50% | 67% | +$23 | -$27,002 | 211.0% | $-26,157 (vs do-nothing $-9,905) |
| $325 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $15.80 | 1/1 | $3,160 | $3,079 | 49% | 68% | +$490 | -$27,022 | 211.1% | $-26,177 (vs do-nothing $-9,925) |
| $325 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $11.30 | 1/1 | $4,238 | $4,157 | 47% | 67% | +$388 | -$27,472 | 214.6% | $-26,627 (vs do-nothing $-10,375) |
| $322.50 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $17.20 | 1/1 | $3,440 | $3,359 | 46% | 67% | +$499 | -$27,132 | 212.0% | $-26,287 (vs do-nothing $-10,035) |
| $322.50 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $13.00 | 1/1 | $4,875 | $4,794 | 43% | 66% | +$491 | -$27,552 | 215.3% | $-26,707 (vs do-nothing $-10,455) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.