1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $612.31 (banked floor $590.24) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $2,700/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $82/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,548 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x $332.5C 11 Sep 2026 | U18827291 | $2.50 | $250 | 2026-09-08 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 8d | 1 × $325 | 76% | $1,537 | $501 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $370 | 18 Sep | 8d | 20.4% | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | +1pp | $25 | $94 | -$1,444 | $24,206 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $370 20.4% OTM over spot $307.22 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.30 mid) = $25 credit for the 8d cycle → $94/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $370) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $370.30) 98% EV / mo +$59 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 13% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-2/mo median; plan ~$-1/mo after 68% keep · $-18 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo, measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$941 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $383 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.67/sh now → $9.66 mid-life (likely $7.35–$13.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 55 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $378 (overshoots $7.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $370 is $242 below CC-SS $612.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $370.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $370)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $320.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,548 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,286 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $370): -$24,206 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,468 (+$9,079 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,988 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,480, the opportunity cost of earning $94/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $434.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,402, position total $-25,088 (+$7,459 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $345 | 18 Sep | 8d | 12.3% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +2pp | $115 | $431 | -$1,106 | $26,616 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $345 12.3% OTM over spot $307.22 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.40 mid) = $115 credit for the 8d cycle → $431/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $345) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $346.40) 92% EV / mo +$185 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $220/mo median; plan ~$150/mo after 68% keep · $1,907 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.7 mo [3.3-6.7], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$786 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $358 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.74/sh now → $9.01 mid-life (likely $7.67–$12.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 361 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $351 (overshoots $5.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $345 is $267 below CC-SS $612.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $346.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $345)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $320.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,548 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,286 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $345): -$26,616 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,878 (+$6,669 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,988 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,890, the opportunity cost of earning $431/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $434.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,812, position total $-27,498 (+$5,049 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $332.50 | 18 Sep | 8d | 8.2% | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 31% | +3pp | $250 | $938 | -$600 | $27,731 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $332.50 8.2% OTM over spot $307.22 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $2.95 mid) = $250 credit for the 8d cycle → $938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $332.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $335.45) 85% EV / mo +$294 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $451/mo median; plan ~$307/mo after 68% keep · $3,946 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [4.0-7.2], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$619 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $355 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.28/sh now → $8.69 mid-life (likely $8.41–$13.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 776 simulated challenges: the $332 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $338 (overshoots $5.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $332.50 is $280 below CC-SS $612.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.50 collected) or spot ≥ $335.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $332)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $320.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,548 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,286 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $332.50): -$27,731 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,993 (+$5,554 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,988 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,005, the opportunity cost of earning $938/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $434.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,927, position total $-28,613 (+$3,934 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $325 | 18 Sep | 8d | 5.8% | 76%hist 83% | 50%hist 39% | +4pp | $410 | $1,537 | — | $28,321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $325 5.8% OTM over spot $307.22 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $4.25 mid) = $410 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,537/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $325) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $329.25) 80% EV / mo +$435 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $636/mo median; plan ~$433/mo after 68% keep · $5,520 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [4.2-7.6], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$439 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $358 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.00/sh now → $8.49 mid-life (likely $9.25–$14.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,163 simulated challenges: the $325 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $331 (overshoots $5.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $325 is $287 below CC-SS $612.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $329.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $325)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $320.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,548 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,286 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $325): -$28,321 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,583 (+$4,964 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,988 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,595, the opportunity cost of earning $1,537/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $434.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,517, position total $-29,203 (+$3,344 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $312.50 | 18 Sep | 8d | 1.7% | 60%hist 70% | 83%hist 79% | +8pp | $790 | $2,962 | +$1,425 | $29,191 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $312.50 1.7% OTM over spot $307.22 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $8.45 mid) = $790 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,962/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $312.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $320.95) 71% EV / mo +$490 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $896/mo median; plan ~$609/mo after 68% keep · $7,699 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo [4.1-7.4], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$26 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $365 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.54/sh now → $8.16 mid-life (likely $10.91–$15.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,023 simulated challenges: the $312 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $318 (overshoots $5.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $312.50 is $300 below CC-SS $612.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.98/sh (~25% of the $7.90 collected) or spot ≥ $320.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $312)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $320.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,548 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,286 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $312.50): -$29,191 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,453 (+$4,094 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,988 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,465, the opportunity cost of earning $2,962/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $434.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,387, position total $-30,073 (+$2,474 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.091 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,286 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-18,988
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $325 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.10 | 1/1 | $1,537 | $1,455 | 76% | 80% | +$435 | -$28,321 | 221.3% | $-27,583 (vs do-nothing $-8,595) |
| $322.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.40 | 1/1 | $1,650 | $1,568 | 73% | 78% | +$341 | -$28,541 | 223.0% | $-27,803 (vs do-nothing $-8,815) |
| $325 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.90 | 1/1 | $1,380 | $1,298 | 71% | 77% | +$270 | -$28,041 | 219.1% | $-27,303 (vs do-nothing $-8,315) |
| $320 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 1/1 | $2,025 | $1,943 | 70% | 77% | +$478 | -$28,691 | 224.2% | $-27,953 (vs do-nothing $-8,965) |
| $322.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.50 | 1/1 | $1,500 | $1,418 | 68% | 76% | +$253 | -$28,231 | 220.6% | $-27,493 (vs do-nothing $-8,505) |
| $317.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.00 | 1/1 | $2,250 | $2,168 | 67% | 75% | +$432 | -$28,881 | 225.6% | $-28,143 (vs do-nothing $-9,155) |
| $320 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.50 | 1/1 | $1,700 | $1,618 | 66% | 74% | +$301 | -$28,381 | 221.7% | $-27,643 (vs do-nothing $-8,655) |
| $320 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.80 | 1/1 | $1,473 | $1,390 | 64% | 73% | +$188 | -$28,151 | 219.9% | $-27,413 (vs do-nothing $-8,425) |
| $317.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.60 | 1/1 | $1,920 | $1,838 | 63% | 73% | +$355 | -$28,521 | 222.8% | $-27,783 (vs do-nothing $-8,795) |
| $315 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.60 | 1/1 | $2,475 | $2,393 | 63% | 73% | +$349 | -$29,071 | 227.1% | $-28,333 (vs do-nothing $-9,345) |
| $315 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $10.20 | 1/1 | $2,040 | $1,958 | 61% | 71% | +$293 | -$28,711 | 224.3% | $-27,973 (vs do-nothing $-8,985) |
| $315 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.50 | 1/1 | $1,432 | $1,349 | 60% | 70% | $-105 | -$28,681 | 224.1% | $-27,943 (vs do-nothing $-8,955) |
| $312.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.90 | 1/1 | $2,962 | $2,880 | 60% | 71% | +$490 | -$29,191 | 228.1% | $-28,453 (vs do-nothing $-9,465) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $312.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.20 | 1/1 | $2,240 | $2,158 | 58% | 70% | +$296 | -$28,861 | 225.5% | $-28,123 (vs do-nothing $-9,135) |
| $310 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $8.90 | 1/1 | $3,338 | $3,255 | 56% | 69% | +$504 | -$29,341 | 229.2% | $-28,603 (vs do-nothing $-9,615) |
| $310 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $12.10 | 1/1 | $2,420 | $2,338 | 55% | 69% | +$261 | -$29,021 | 226.7% | $-28,283 (vs do-nothing $-9,295) |
| $310 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $15.30 | 1/1 | $2,086 | $2,004 | 55% | 69% | +$264 | -$28,701 | 224.2% | $-27,963 (vs do-nothing $-8,975) |
| $307.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $13.50 | 1/1 | $2,700 | $2,618 | 53% | 68% | +$310 | -$29,131 | 227.6% | $-28,393 (vs do-nothing $-9,405) |
| $307.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $10.00 | 1/1 | $3,750 | $3,668 | 52% | 67% | +$487 | -$29,481 | 230.3% | $-28,743 (vs do-nothing $-9,755) |
| $305 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $15.00 | 1/1 | $2,045 | $1,963 | 51% | 66% | $-100 | -$29,231 | 228.4% | $-28,493 (vs do-nothing $-9,505) |
| $305 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $14.70 | 1/1 | $2,940 | $2,858 | 50% | 67% | +$302 | -$29,261 | 228.6% | $-28,523 (vs do-nothing $-9,535) |
| $305 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $11.20 | 1/1 | $4,200 | $4,118 | 48% | 66% | +$557 | -$29,611 | 231.3% | $-28,873 (vs do-nothing $-9,885) |
| $302.50 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $16.00 | 1/1 | $3,200 | $3,118 | 47% | 66% | +$297 | -$29,381 | 229.5% | $-28,643 (vs do-nothing $-9,655) |
| $302.50 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $12.50 | 1/1 | $4,688 | $4,605 | 45% | 64% | +$407 | -$29,731 | 232.3% | $-28,993 (vs do-nothing $-10,005) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.