1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $605.10 (banked floor $580.69) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $3,136/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $72/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,280 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 4d | 1 × $340 | 80% | $1,912 | $680 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 11d | 1 × $337.50 | 70% | $1,718 | $-110 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $370 | 18 Sep | 4d | 15.0% | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | +1pp | $15 | $112 | -$1,800 | $23,495 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $370 15.0% OTM over spot $321.63 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.38 mid) = $15 credit for the 4d cycle → $112/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $370) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $370.38) 98% EV / mo +$72 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $30/mo median; plan ~$20/mo after 68% keep · $212 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.1 mo [2.7-5.7], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$790 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $393 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.39/sh now → $8.05 mid-life (likely $6.18–$13.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 54 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 4, at $376 (overshoots $6.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $370 is $235 below CC-SS $605.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $370.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $370)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $325.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,267 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $370): -$23,495 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,508 (+$7,772 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,018 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,490, the opportunity cost of earning $112/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.22 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,807, position total $-24,330 (+$5,950 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $352.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 9.6% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +4pp | $100 | $750 | -$1,162 | $25,160 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $352.50 9.6% OTM over spot $321.63 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.23 mid) = $100 credit for the 4d cycle → $750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $353.73) 92% EV / mo +$401 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $465/mo median; plan ~$317/mo after 68% keep · $3,671 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.3-6.0], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$667 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $381 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.85/sh now → $7.67 mid-life (likely $6.80–$12.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 289 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $359 (overshoots $6.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $253 below CC-SS $605.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $353.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $325.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,267 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $352.50): -$25,160 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,173 (+$6,107 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,018 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,155, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.22 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,472, position total $-25,995 (+$4,285 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 1 × $347.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 8.0% | 88%hist 86% | 24%hist 26% | +7pp | $140 | $1,050 | -$862 | $25,620 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $347.50 8.0% OTM over spot $321.63 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.72 mid) = $140 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $347.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $349.23) 89% EV / mo +$456 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $621/mo median; plan ~$422/mo after 68% keep · $5,083 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.3-7.1], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$616 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $381 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.70/sh now → $7.56 mid-life (likely $7.45–$13.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 399 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $354 (overshoots $6.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $347.50 is $258 below CC-SS $605.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $349.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $348)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $325.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,267 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $347.50): -$25,620 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,633 (+$5,647 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,018 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,615, the opportunity cost of earning $1,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.22 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,932, position total $-26,455 (+$3,825 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $340 | 18 Sep | 4d | 5.7% | 80%hist 86% | 40%hist 39% | +11pp | $255 | $1,912 | — | $26,255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $340 5.7% OTM over spot $321.63 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $2.77 mid) = $255 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,912/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $340) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $342.77) 84% EV / mo +$646 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 35% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $960/mo median; plan ~$653/mo after 68% keep · $7,574 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.1-6.9], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$485 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $378 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.46/sh now → $7.40 mid-life (likely $7.87–$13.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 756 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $346 (overshoots $6.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $340 is $265 below CC-SS $605.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.55 collected) or spot ≥ $342.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $340)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $325.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,267 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $340): -$26,255 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,268 (+$5,012 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,018 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,250, the opportunity cost of earning $1,912/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.22 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,567, position total $-27,090 (+$3,190 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $332.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 3.4% | 70%hist 84% | 61%hist 59% | +12pp | $440 | $3,300 | +$1,388 | $26,820 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $332.50 3.4% OTM over spot $321.63 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $4.80 mid) = $440 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $332.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $337.30) 77% EV / mo +$830 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,288/mo median; plan ~$876/mo after 68% keep · $10,431 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.4-7.2], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$284 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $376 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.23/sh now → $7.24 mid-life (likely $8.34–$13.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,270 simulated challenges: the $332 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $339 (overshoots $6.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $332.50 is $273 below CC-SS $605.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.10/sh (~25% of the $4.40 collected) or spot ≥ $337.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $332)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $325.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,267 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $332.50): -$26,820 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,833 (+$4,447 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,018 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,815, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.22 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,132, position total $-27,655 (+$2,625 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $385 | 25 Sep | 11d | 19.7% | 96%hist 96% | 8%hist 3% | +1pp | $60 | $164 | -$1,555 | $21,950 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $385 19.7% OTM over spot $321.63 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.80 mid) = $60 credit for the 11d cycle → $164/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $385) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $385.80) 96% EV / mo +$87 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 21% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $63/mo median; plan ~$43/mo after 68% keep · $503 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [4.2-6.5], measured ONLY among the 21% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,114 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $393 @ 71% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $16.60/sh now → $11.74 mid-life (likely $7.43–$14.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 107 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $392 (overshoots $6.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $385 is $220 below CC-SS $605.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $385.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $385)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $325.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,267 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $385): -$21,950 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,963 (+$9,317 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,018 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,945, the opportunity cost of earning $164/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.22 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,262, position total $-22,785 (+$7,495 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $365 | 25 Sep | 11d | 13.5% | 90%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +4pp | $165 | $450 | -$1,268 | $23,845 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $365 13.5% OTM over spot $321.63 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.93 mid) = $165 credit for the 11d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $366.93) 91% EV / mo +$207 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 21% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $232/mo median; plan ~$158/mo after 68% keep · $1,982 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [3.8-7.0], measured ONLY among the 21% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$948 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $378 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $15.74/sh now → $11.13 mid-life (likely $9.37–$15.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 408 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $371 (overshoots $6.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $365 is $240 below CC-SS $605.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $366.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $325.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,267 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $365): -$23,845 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,858 (+$7,422 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,018 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,840, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.22 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,157, position total $-24,680 (+$5,600 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 1 × $347.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 8.0% | 80%hist 84% | 42%hist 39% | +5pp | $390 | $1,064 | -$655 | $25,370 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $347.50 8.0% OTM over spot $321.63 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $4.50 mid) = $390 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,064/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $347.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $352.00) 83% EV / mo +$304 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $481/mo median; plan ~$327/mo after 68% keep · $4,117 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [3.7-6.9], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$670 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $371 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.98/sh now → $10.60 mid-life (likely $11.00–$16.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 953 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $353 (overshoots $5.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $347.50 is $258 below CC-SS $605.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $352.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $348)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $325.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,267 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $347.50): -$25,370 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,383 (+$5,897 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,018 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,365, the opportunity cost of earning $1,064/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.22 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,682, position total $-26,205 (+$4,075 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $337.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 4.9% | 70%hist 84% | 62%hist 59% | +5pp | $630 | $1,718 | — | $26,130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $337.50 4.9% OTM over spot $321.63 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $6.90 mid) = $630 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,718/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $337.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $344.40) 77% EV / mo +$343 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $628/mo median; plan ~$427/mo after 68% keep · $5,321 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [3.6-7.2], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$399 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $376 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.55/sh now → $10.29 mid-life (likely $11.96–$16.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,426 simulated challenges: the $338 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $343 (overshoots $5.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $337.50 is $268 below CC-SS $605.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.57/sh (~25% of the $6.30 collected) or spot ≥ $344.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $338)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $325.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,267 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $337.50): -$26,130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,143 (+$5,137 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,018 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,125, the opportunity cost of earning $1,718/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.22 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,442, position total $-26,965 (+$3,315 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $322.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 0.3% | 53%hist 70% | 98%hist 90% | +6pp | $1,150 | $3,136 | +$1,418 | $27,110 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $322.50 0.3% OTM over spot $321.63 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $12.45 mid) = $1,150 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,136/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $322.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $334.95) 68% EV / mo +$407 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~12.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $793/mo median; plan ~$539/mo after 68% keep · $6,971 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [4.4-7.3], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 81% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$167 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $366 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.91/sh now → $9.83 mid-life (likely $13.94–$19.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,440 simulated challenges: the $322 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $329 (overshoots $6.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $322.50 is $283 below CC-SS $605.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.88/sh (~25% of the $11.50 collected) or spot ≥ $334.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $322)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $325.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $605.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,280 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,267 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $322.50): -$27,110 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,123 (+$4,157 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,018 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,105, the opportunity cost of earning $3,136/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.22 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,422, position total $-27,945 (+$2,335 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.103 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$31,267 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-18,018
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $340 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.55 | 1/1 | $1,912 | $1,841 | 80% | 84% | +$646 | -$26,255 | 205.1% | $-25,268 (vs do-nothing $-7,250) |
| $337.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.90 | 1/1 | $2,175 | $2,103 | 78% | 82% | +$638 | -$26,470 | 206.8% | $-25,483 (vs do-nothing $-7,465) |
| $335 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.60 | 1/1 | $2,700 | $2,628 | 74% | 79% | +$712 | -$26,650 | 208.2% | $-25,663 (vs do-nothing $-7,645) |
| $337.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.30 | 1/1 | $1,718 | $1,647 | 70% | 77% | +$343 | -$26,130 | 204.1% | $-25,143 (vs do-nothing $-7,125) |
| $332.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.40 | 1/1 | $3,300 | $3,228 | 70% | 77% | +$830 | -$26,820 | 209.5% | $-25,833 (vs do-nothing $-7,815) |
| $335 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.10 | 1/1 | $1,936 | $1,865 | 68% | 75% | +$360 | -$26,300 | 205.5% | $-25,313 (vs do-nothing $-7,295) |
| $330 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 1/1 | $3,825 | $3,753 | 66% | 74% | +$784 | -$27,000 | 210.9% | $-26,013 (vs do-nothing $-7,995) |
| $335 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.10 | 1/1 | $1,683 | $1,612 | 65% | 74% | +$340 | -$26,000 | 203.1% | $-25,013 (vs do-nothing $-6,995) |
| $332.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.80 | 1/1 | $2,127 | $2,056 | 65% | 74% | +$360 | -$26,480 | 206.9% | $-25,493 (vs do-nothing $-7,475) |
| $332.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.10 | 1/1 | $1,850 | $1,778 | 63% | 73% | +$366 | -$26,150 | 204.3% | $-25,163 (vs do-nothing $-7,145) |
| $330 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.80 | 1/1 | $2,400 | $2,328 | 62% | 72% | +$434 | -$26,630 | 208.0% | $-25,643 (vs do-nothing $-7,625) |
| $327.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 1/1 | $4,275 | $4,203 | 62% | 73% | +$732 | -$27,190 | 212.4% | $-26,203 (vs do-nothing $-8,185) |
| $330 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $12.10 | 1/1 | $2,017 | $1,945 | 61% | 72% | +$381 | -$26,300 | 205.5% | $-25,313 (vs do-nothing $-7,295) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $330 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $14.40 | 1/1 | $1,728 | $1,656 | 60% | 72% | +$309 | -$26,070 | 203.7% | $-25,083 (vs do-nothing $-7,065) |
| $327.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.50 | 1/1 | $2,591 | $2,519 | 59% | 71% | +$449 | -$26,810 | 209.5% | $-25,823 (vs do-nothing $-7,805) |
| $327.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $13.00 | 1/1 | $2,167 | $2,095 | 58% | 71% | +$367 | -$26,460 | 206.7% | $-25,473 (vs do-nothing $-7,455) |
| $325 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.30 | 1/1 | $4,725 | $4,653 | 58% | 71% | +$612 | -$27,380 | 213.9% | $-26,393 (vs do-nothing $-8,375) |
| $325 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $10.70 | 1/1 | $2,918 | $2,847 | 56% | 70% | +$495 | -$26,940 | 210.5% | $-25,953 (vs do-nothing $-7,935) |
| $325 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $14.20 | 1/1 | $2,367 | $2,295 | 56% | 70% | +$390 | -$26,590 | 207.7% | $-25,603 (vs do-nothing $-7,585) |
| $325 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $16.20 | 1/1 | $1,944 | $1,872 | 56% | 70% | +$279 | -$26,390 | 206.2% | $-25,403 (vs do-nothing $-7,385) |
| $322.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $14.60 | 1/1 | $2,433 | $2,362 | 53% | 68% | +$268 | -$26,800 | 209.4% | $-25,813 (vs do-nothing $-7,795) |
| $322.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.50 | 1/1 | $3,136 | $3,065 | 53% | 68% | +$407 | -$27,110 | 211.8% | $-26,123 (vs do-nothing $-8,105) |
| $322.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.50 | 1/1 | $5,625 | $5,553 | 53% | 68% | +$668 | -$27,510 | 214.9% | $-26,523 (vs do-nothing $-8,505) |
| $320 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $18.60 | 1/1 | $2,232 | $2,160 | 51% | 68% | +$290 | -$26,650 | 208.2% | $-25,663 (vs do-nothing $-7,645) |
| $320 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $16.20 | 1/1 | $2,700 | $2,628 | 51% | 67% | +$333 | -$26,890 | 210.1% | $-25,903 (vs do-nothing $-7,885) |
| $320 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $12.40 | 1/1 | $3,382 | $3,310 | 50% | 67% | +$318 | -$27,270 | 213.0% | $-26,283 (vs do-nothing $-8,265) |
| $317.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $17.30 | 1/1 | $2,883 | $2,812 | 48% | 66% | +$302 | -$27,030 | 211.2% | $-26,043 (vs do-nothing $-8,025) |
| $320 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $8.70 | 1/1 | $6,525 | $6,453 | 48% | 66% | +$638 | -$27,640 | 215.9% | $-26,653 (vs do-nothing $-8,635) |
| $317.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $13.90 | 1/1 | $3,791 | $3,719 | 47% | 65% | +$365 | -$27,370 | 213.8% | $-26,383 (vs do-nothing $-8,365) |
| $317.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $10.00 | 1/1 | $7,500 | $7,428 | 43% | 64% | +$560 | -$27,760 | 216.9% | $-26,773 (vs do-nothing $-8,755) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.