1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $611.40 (banked floor $586.99) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $2,892/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $48/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-29,990 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 1 × $355 | 88% | $1,450 | $839 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 1 × $352.50 | 77% | $1,590 | $235 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $380 | 18 Sep | 3d | 14.9% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +1pp | $10 | $100 | -$1,350 | $23,130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $380 14.9% OTM over spot $330.71 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.17 mid) = $10 credit for the 3d cycle → $100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $380) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $380.18) 99% EV / mo +$70 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $43/mo median; plan ~$29/mo after 68% keep · $316 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [3.0-6.4], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$816 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $399 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.67/sh now → $8.26 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $380 is $231 below CC-SS $611.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $380.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,262 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $380): -$23,130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,858 (+$2,132 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,495, the opportunity cost of earning $100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,852, position total $-26,030 (+$3,960 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $372.50 | 25 Sep | 10d | 12.6% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +3pp | $205 | $615 | -$835 | $23,685 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $372.50 12.6% OTM over spot $330.71 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.35 mid) = $205 credit for the 10d cycle → $615/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $374.85) 91% EV / mo +$353 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $380/mo median; plan ~$258/mo after 68% keep · $3,338 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.1 mo [4.3-7.2], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$972 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $382 @ 73% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $16.65/sh now → $11.77 mid-life (likely $9.32–$16.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 396 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $379 (overshoots $6.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $372.50 is $239 below CC-SS $611.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.05 collected) or spot ≥ $374.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,262 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $372.50): -$23,685 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,413 (+$1,577 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,050, the opportunity cost of earning $615/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,407, position total $-26,585 (+$3,405 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 1 × $357.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 8.1% | 90%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +7pp | $110 | $1,100 | -$350 | $25,280 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $357.50 8.1% OTM over spot $330.71 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $1.38 mid) = $110 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $357.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $358.88) 91% EV / mo +$576 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $738/mo median; plan ~$502/mo after 68% keep · $5,925 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [3.7-6.8], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$667 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $387 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.98/sh now → $7.77 mid-life (likely $7.27–$13.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 356 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $364 (overshoots $6.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $357.50 is $254 below CC-SS $611.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $358.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $358)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,262 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $357.50): -$25,280 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,008 ($-18 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,645, the opportunity cost of earning $1,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,002, position total $-28,180 (+$1,810 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $355 | 18 Sep | 3d | 7.3% | 88%hist 86% | 24%hist 26% | +9pp | $145 | $1,450 | — | $25,495 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $355 7.3% OTM over spot $330.71 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $1.75 mid) = $145 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $356.75) 90% EV / mo +$750 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $918/mo median; plan ~$624/mo after 68% keep · $7,482 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [3.9-7.0], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$626 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $389 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.91/sh now → $7.71 mid-life (likely $7.48–$13.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 428 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $362 (overshoots $6.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $256 below CC-SS $611.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $356.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,262 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $355): -$25,495 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,223 ($-233 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,860, the opportunity cost of earning $1,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,217, position total $-28,395 (+$1,595 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $345 | 18 Sep | 3d | 4.3% | 77%hist 84% | 48%hist 39% | +20pp | $370 | $3,700 | +$2,250 | $26,270 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $345 4.3% OTM over spot $330.71 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $3.95 mid) = $370 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $345) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $348.95) 82% EV / mo +$1,671 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +20pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,831/mo median; plan ~$1,245/mo after 68% keep · $13,775 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo [3.4-6.8], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$379 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $394 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.60/sh now → $7.49 mid-life (likely $8.31–$14.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 971 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $352 (overshoots $6.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $345 is $266 below CC-SS $611.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.93/sh (~25% of the $3.70 collected) or spot ≥ $348.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $345)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,262 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $345): -$26,270 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,998 ($-1,008 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,635, the opportunity cost of earning $3,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,992, position total $-29,170 (+$820 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $400 | 25 Sep | 10d | 21.0% | 98%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | +1pp | $45 | $135 | -$1,455 | $21,095 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $400 21.0% OTM over spot $330.71 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.55 mid) = $45 credit for the 10d cycle → $135/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $400) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $400.55) 98% EV / mo +$97 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $72/mo median; plan ~$49/mo after 68% keep · $596 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [3.7-7.1], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,219 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $404 @ 69% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $17.88/sh now → $12.64 mid-life (likely $8.36–$15.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 67 simulated challenges: the $400 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $406 (overshoots $6.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $400 is $211 below CC-SS $611.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $400.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $400)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,262 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $400): -$21,095 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,823 (+$4,167 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,460, the opportunity cost of earning $135/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,817, position total $-23,995 (+$5,995 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $372.50 | 25 Sep | 10d | 12.6% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +3pp | $205 | $615 | -$975 | $23,685 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $372.50 12.6% OTM over spot $330.71 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.35 mid) = $205 credit for the 10d cycle → $615/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $374.85) 91% EV / mo +$353 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $380/mo median; plan ~$258/mo after 68% keep · $3,338 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.1 mo [4.3-7.2], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$972 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $382 @ 73% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $16.65/sh now → $11.77 mid-life (likely $9.32–$16.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 396 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $379 (overshoots $6.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $372.50 is $239 below CC-SS $611.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.05 collected) or spot ≥ $374.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,262 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $372.50): -$23,685 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,413 (+$1,577 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,050, the opportunity cost of earning $615/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,407, position total $-26,585 (+$3,405 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $362.50 | 25 Sep | 10d | 9.6% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | +6pp | $340 | $1,020 | -$570 | $24,550 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $362.50 9.6% OTM over spot $330.71 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $3.80 mid) = $340 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $366.30) 87% EV / mo +$507 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $574/mo median; plan ~$390/mo after 68% keep · $4,966 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo [4.3-6.9], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$806 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $382 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $16.20/sh now → $11.46 mid-life (likely $11.22–$17.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 664 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $369 (overshoots $6.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $362.50 is $249 below CC-SS $611.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $366.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,262 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $362.50): -$24,550 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,278 (+$712 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,915, the opportunity cost of earning $1,020/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,272, position total $-27,450 (+$2,540 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $352.50 | 25 Sep | 10d | 6.6% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | +5pp | $530 | $1,590 | — | $25,360 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $352.50 6.6% OTM over spot $330.71 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $5.80 mid) = $530 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,590/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $358.30) 82% EV / mo +$658 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 17% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $740/mo median; plan ~$504/mo after 68% keep · $6,453 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [3.8-7.6], measured ONLY among the 17% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$584 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $382 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $15.75/sh now → $11.14 mid-life (likely $12.06–$17.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,091 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $359 (overshoots $6.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $259 below CC-SS $611.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.32/sh (~25% of the $5.30 collected) or spot ≥ $358.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,262 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $352.50): -$25,360 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,088 ($-98 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,725, the opportunity cost of earning $1,590/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,082, position total $-28,260 (+$1,730 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $337.50 | 25 Sep | 10d | 2.1% | 61%hist 65% | 82%hist 79% | +5pp | $1,020 | $3,060 | +$1,470 | $26,370 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $337.50 2.1% OTM over spot $330.71 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $10.90 mid) = $1,020 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,060/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $337.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $348.40) 73% EV / mo +$853 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 19% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $968/mo median; plan ~$658/mo after 68% keep · $8,436 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [3.9-7.1], measured ONLY among the 19% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$47 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $397 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $15.08/sh now → $10.67 mid-life (likely $13.94–$18.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,031 simulated challenges: the $338 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $343 (overshoots $5.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $337.50 is $274 below CC-SS $611.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.55/sh (~25% of the $10.20 collected) or spot ≥ $348.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $338)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.00 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $611.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,990 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,262 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $337.50): -$26,370 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,098 ($-1,108 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,735, the opportunity cost of earning $3,060/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.62 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,092, position total $-29,270 (+$720 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$25,262 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-23,363
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $355 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.45 | 1/1 | $1,450 | $1,402 | 88% | 90% | +$750 | -$25,495 | 199.2% | $-30,223 (vs do-nothing $-6,860) |
| $352.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.85 | 1/1 | $1,850 | $1,802 | 86% | 88% | +$923 | -$25,705 | 200.8% | $-30,433 (vs do-nothing $-7,070) |
| $350 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.30 | 1/1 | $2,300 | $2,252 | 83% | 86% | +$1,084 | -$25,910 | 202.4% | $-30,638 (vs do-nothing $-7,275) |
| $347.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.85 | 1/1 | $2,850 | $2,802 | 80% | 84% | +$1,271 | -$26,105 | 203.9% | $-30,833 (vs do-nothing $-7,470) |
| $352.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 1/1 | $1,590 | $1,542 | 77% | 82% | +$658 | -$25,360 | 198.1% | $-30,088 (vs do-nothing $-6,725) |
| $345 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.70 | 1/1 | $3,700 | $3,652 | 77% | 82% | +$1,671 | -$26,270 | 205.2% | $-30,998 (vs do-nothing $-7,635) |
| $350 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.00 | 1/1 | $1,800 | $1,752 | 75% | 81% | +$712 | -$25,540 | 199.5% | $-30,268 (vs do-nothing $-6,905) |
| $342.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.00 | 1/1 | $4,000 | $3,952 | 73% | 79% | +$1,420 | -$26,490 | 207.0% | $-31,218 (vs do-nothing $-7,855) |
| $347.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.60 | 1/1 | $1,980 | $1,932 | 72% | 79% | +$715 | -$25,730 | 201.0% | $-30,458 (vs do-nothing $-7,095) |
| $350 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.90 | 1/1 | $1,571 | $1,523 | 70% | 78% | +$479 | -$25,250 | 197.3% | $-29,978 (vs do-nothing $-6,615) |
| $345 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.30 | 1/1 | $2,190 | $2,142 | 69% | 77% | +$726 | -$25,910 | 202.4% | $-30,638 (vs do-nothing $-7,275) |
| $340 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.80 | 1/1 | $4,800 | $4,752 | 69% | 77% | +$1,555 | -$26,660 | 208.3% | $-31,388 (vs do-nothing $-8,025) |
| $342.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.50 | 1/1 | $2,550 | $2,502 | 67% | 76% | +$863 | -$26,040 | 203.4% | $-30,768 (vs do-nothing $-7,405) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $345 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.60 | 1/1 | $1,871 | $1,823 | 66% | 75% | +$521 | -$25,580 | 199.8% | $-30,308 (vs do-nothing $-6,945) |
| $337.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 1/1 | $5,700 | $5,652 | 64% | 75% | +$1,665 | -$26,820 | 209.5% | $-31,548 (vs do-nothing $-8,185) |
| $342.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.60 | 1/1 | $2,047 | $1,999 | 64% | 74% | +$535 | -$25,730 | 201.0% | $-30,458 (vs do-nothing $-7,095) |
| $340 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.50 | 1/1 | $2,850 | $2,802 | 64% | 75% | +$916 | -$26,190 | 204.6% | $-30,918 (vs do-nothing $-7,555) |
| $340 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $12.60 | 1/1 | $2,224 | $2,176 | 62% | 73% | +$569 | -$25,880 | 202.2% | $-30,608 (vs do-nothing $-7,245) |
| $337.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $10.20 | 1/1 | $3,060 | $3,012 | 61% | 73% | +$853 | -$26,370 | 206.0% | $-31,098 (vs do-nothing $-7,735) |
| $340 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $12.30 | 1/1 | $1,538 | $1,490 | 60% | 72% | +$51 | -$25,910 | 202.4% | $-30,638 (vs do-nothing $-7,275) |
| $335 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.80 | 1/1 | $6,800 | $6,752 | 60% | 73% | +$1,840 | -$26,960 | 210.6% | $-31,688 (vs do-nothing $-8,325) |
| $337.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $13.60 | 1/1 | $2,400 | $2,352 | 59% | 72% | +$574 | -$26,030 | 203.4% | $-30,758 (vs do-nothing $-7,395) |
| $335 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.30 | 1/1 | $3,390 | $3,342 | 57% | 72% | +$882 | -$26,510 | 207.1% | $-31,238 (vs do-nothing $-7,875) |
| $335 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $14.70 | 1/1 | $2,594 | $2,546 | 57% | 71% | +$584 | -$26,170 | 204.5% | $-30,898 (vs do-nothing $-7,535) |
| $335 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $17.00 | 1/1 | $2,125 | $2,077 | 56% | 70% | +$379 | -$25,940 | 202.7% | $-30,668 (vs do-nothing $-7,305) |
| $332.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.90 | 1/1 | $7,900 | $7,852 | 55% | 70% | +$1,874 | -$27,100 | 211.7% | $-31,828 (vs do-nothing $-8,465) |
| $332.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $15.90 | 1/1 | $2,806 | $2,758 | 54% | 70% | +$585 | -$26,300 | 205.5% | $-31,028 (vs do-nothing $-7,665) |
| $332.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $12.50 | 1/1 | $3,750 | $3,702 | 54% | 70% | +$914 | -$26,640 | 208.1% | $-31,368 (vs do-nothing $-8,005) |
| $330 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $19.20 | 1/1 | $2,400 | $2,352 | 52% | 69% | +$364 | -$26,220 | 204.8% | $-30,948 (vs do-nothing $-7,585) |
| $330 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $17.10 | 1/1 | $3,018 | $2,970 | 52% | 69% | +$599 | -$26,430 | 206.5% | $-31,158 (vs do-nothing $-7,795) |
| $330 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $13.80 | 1/1 | $4,140 | $4,092 | 51% | 69% | +$947 | -$26,760 | 209.1% | $-31,488 (vs do-nothing $-8,125) |
| $330 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $9.70 | 1/1 | $9,700 | $9,652 | 50% | 69% | +$2,461 | -$27,170 | 212.3% | $-31,898 (vs do-nothing $-8,535) |
| $327.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $18.50 | 1/1 | $3,265 | $3,217 | 49% | 68% | +$621 | -$26,540 | 207.3% | $-31,268 (vs do-nothing $-7,905) |
| $325 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $21.50 | 1/1 | $2,688 | $2,640 | 48% | 67% | +$330 | -$26,490 | 207.0% | $-31,218 (vs do-nothing $-7,855) |
| $327.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $15.00 | 1/1 | $4,500 | $4,452 | 48% | 68% | +$920 | -$26,890 | 210.1% | $-31,618 (vs do-nothing $-8,255) |
| $325 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $20.00 | 1/1 | $3,529 | $3,482 | 47% | 67% | +$648 | -$26,640 | 208.1% | $-31,368 (vs do-nothing $-8,005) |
| $327.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $10.60 | 1/1 | $10,600 | $10,552 | 45% | 66% | +$2,001 | -$27,330 | 213.5% | $-32,058 (vs do-nothing $-8,695) |
| $325 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $16.50 | 1/1 | $4,950 | $4,902 | 44% | 66% | +$955 | -$26,990 | 210.9% | $-31,718 (vs do-nothing $-8,355) |
| $325 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $12.20 | 1/1 | $12,200 | $12,152 | 40% | 65% | +$2,097 | -$27,420 | 214.2% | $-32,148 (vs do-nothing $-8,785) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.