1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $604.73 (banked floor $580.33) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $2,571/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $74/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-29,320 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 1 × $350 | 85% | $1,800 | $1,206 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 1 × $350 | 75% | $1,400 | $254 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $380 | 18 Sep | 2d | 15.0% | 99%hist 96% | 2%hist 3% | +0pp | $5 | $75 | -$1,725 | $22,468 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $380 15.0% OTM over spot $330.49 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $5 credit for the 2d cycle → $75/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $380) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $380.10) 99% EV / mo +$51 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 31% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-7/mo median; plan ~$-5/mo after 68% keep · $-58 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.1 mo [2.5-6.2], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$546 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $415 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.79/sh now → $5.51 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $380 is $225 below CC-SS $604.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $380.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $380)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $335.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $604.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,330 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $380): -$22,468 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,457 (+$7,863 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,000, the opportunity cost of earning $75/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,862, position total $-23,323 (+$5,997 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $372.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 12.7% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +3pp | $130 | $433 | -$1,367 | $23,093 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $372.50 12.7% OTM over spot $330.49 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.58 mid) = $130 credit for the 9d cycle → $433/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $374.07) 91% EV / mo +$140 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 21% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $227/mo median; plan ~$154/mo after 68% keep · $1,888 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [3.8-6.9], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$738 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $392 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.27/sh now → $8.68 mid-life (likely $7.39–$12.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 415 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $379 (overshoots $6.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $372.50 is $232 below CC-SS $604.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $374.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $335.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $604.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,330 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $372.50): -$23,093 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,082 (+$7,238 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,625, the opportunity cost of earning $433/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,487, position total $-23,948 (+$5,372 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 1 × $355 | 18 Sep | 2d | 7.4% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +5pp | $60 | $900 | -$900 | $24,913 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $355 7.4% OTM over spot $330.49 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.82 mid) = $60 credit for the 2d cycle → $900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $355.82) 91% EV / mo +$163 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $551/mo median; plan ~$375/mo after 68% keep · $4,042 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.5-6.0], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$454 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $395 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.27/sh now → $5.14 mid-life (likely $5.59–$9.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 262 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $362 (overshoots $6.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $250 below CC-SS $604.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $355.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $335.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $604.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,330 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $355): -$24,913 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,902 (+$5,418 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,445, the opportunity cost of earning $900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,307, position total $-25,768 (+$3,552 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $350 | 18 Sep | 2d | 5.9% | 85%hist 86% | 30%hist 26% | +8pp | $120 | $1,800 | — | $25,353 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $350 5.9% OTM over spot $330.49 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $1.32 mid) = $120 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $350) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $351.32) 87% EV / mo +$470 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,033/mo median; plan ~$702/mo after 68% keep · $7,519 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.5-5.9], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$387 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $395 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.17/sh now → $5.07 mid-life (likely $5.65–$10.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 487 simulated challenges: the $350 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $357 (overshoots $6.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $350 is $255 below CC-SS $604.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $351.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $350)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $335.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $604.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,330 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $350): -$25,353 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,342 (+$4,978 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,885, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,747, position total $-26,208 (+$3,112 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $342.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 3.6% | 75%hist 84% | 51%hist 44% | +13pp | $200 | $3,000 | +$1,200 | $26,023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $342.50 3.6% OTM over spot $330.49 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $2.38 mid) = $200 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $342.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $344.88) 79% EV / mo $-18 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 37% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~11.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,376/mo median; plan ~$935/mo after 68% keep · $10,489 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [2.6-6.9], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$296 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $397 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.02/sh now → $4.96 mid-life (likely $5.76–$12.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 932 simulated challenges: the $342 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $351 (overshoots $8.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $342.50 is $262 below CC-SS $604.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $344.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $342)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $335.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $604.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,330 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $342.50): -$26,023 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,012 (+$4,308 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,555, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,417, position total $-26,878 (+$2,442 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $400 | 25 Sep | 9d | 21.0% | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | +1pp | $30 | $100 | -$1,300 | $20,443 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $400 21.0% OTM over spot $330.49 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.50 mid) = $30 credit for the 9d cycle → $100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $400) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $400.50) 98% EV / mo +$74 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 21% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15/mo median; plan ~$10/mo after 68% keep · $109 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [3.1-6.3], measured ONLY among the 21% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$902 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $415 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.18/sh now → $9.32 mid-life (likely $5.53–$11.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 59 simulated challenges: the $400 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 9, at $407 (overshoots $6.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $400 is $205 below CC-SS $604.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $400.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $400)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $335.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $604.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,330 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $400): -$20,443 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,432 (+$9,888 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,975, the opportunity cost of earning $100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,837, position total $-21,298 (+$8,022 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $372.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 12.7% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +3pp | $130 | $433 | -$967 | $23,093 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $372.50 12.7% OTM over spot $330.49 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.58 mid) = $130 credit for the 9d cycle → $433/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $374.07) 91% EV / mo +$140 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 21% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $227/mo median; plan ~$154/mo after 68% keep · $1,888 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [3.8-6.9], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$738 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $392 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.27/sh now → $8.68 mid-life (likely $7.39–$12.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 415 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $379 (overshoots $6.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $372.50 is $232 below CC-SS $604.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $374.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $335.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $604.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,330 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $372.50): -$23,093 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,082 (+$7,238 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,625, the opportunity cost of earning $433/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,487, position total $-23,948 (+$5,372 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $357.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 8.2% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | +4pp | $290 | $967 | -$433 | $24,433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $357.50 8.2% OTM over spot $330.49 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $3.35 mid) = $290 credit for the 9d cycle → $967/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $357.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $360.85) 84% EV / mo +$183 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $436/mo median; plan ~$296/mo after 68% keep · $3,633 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.3-7.0], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$543 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $387 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.78/sh now → $8.33 mid-life (likely $8.43–$13.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 867 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $364 (overshoots $6.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $357.50 is $247 below CC-SS $604.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.72/sh (~25% of the $2.90 collected) or spot ≥ $360.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $358)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $335.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $604.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,330 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $357.50): -$24,433 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,422 (+$5,898 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,965, the opportunity cost of earning $967/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,827, position total $-25,288 (+$4,032 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $350 | 25 Sep | 9d | 5.9% | 75%hist 84% | 52%hist 44% | +5pp | $420 | $1,400 | — | $25,053 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $350 5.9% OTM over spot $330.49 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $4.70 mid) = $420 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $350) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $354.70) 79% EV / mo +$165 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $559/mo median; plan ~$380/mo after 68% keep · $4,777 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.5-6.8], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$396 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $390 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.53/sh now → $8.16 mid-life (likely $9.14–$13.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,215 simulated challenges: the $350 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $356 (overshoots $6.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $350 is $255 below CC-SS $604.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.05/sh (~25% of the $4.20 collected) or spot ≥ $354.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $350)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $335.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $604.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,330 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $350): -$25,053 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,042 (+$5,278 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,585, the opportunity cost of earning $1,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,447, position total $-25,908 (+$3,412 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $335 | 25 Sep | 9d | 1.4% | 58%hist 70% | 88%hist 79% | +8pp | $780 | $2,600 | +$1,200 | $26,193 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $335 1.4% OTM over spot $330.49 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $8.50 mid) = $780 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $335) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $343.50) 68% EV / mo $-223 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 26% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $739/mo median; plan ~$503/mo after 68% keep · $6,112 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.5-6.6], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $390 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.04/sh now → $7.81 mid-life (likely $10.51–$14.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,149 simulated challenges: the $335 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $342 (overshoots $6.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $335 is $270 below CC-SS $604.73: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.95/sh (~25% of the $7.80 collected) or spot ≥ $343.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $335)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $335.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $604.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,330 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $335): -$26,193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,182 (+$4,138 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,457 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,725, the opportunity cost of earning $2,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.67 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,587, position total $-27,048 (+$2,272 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 37 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.106 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$30,330 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,457
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.20 | 1/1 | $1,800 | $1,726 | 85% | 87% | +$470 | -$25,353 | 198.1% | $-24,342 (vs do-nothing $-11,885) |
| $347.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.25 | 1/1 | $1,875 | $1,801 | 82% | 84% | +$110 | -$25,598 | 200.0% | $-24,587 (vs do-nothing $-12,130) |
| $345 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.70 | 1/1 | $2,550 | $2,476 | 79% | 82% | +$231 | -$25,803 | 201.6% | $-24,792 (vs do-nothing $-12,335) |
| $342.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.00 | 1/1 | $3,000 | $2,926 | 75% | 79% | $-18 | -$26,023 | 203.3% | $-25,012 (vs do-nothing $-12,555) |
| $350 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.20 | 1/1 | $1,400 | $1,326 | 75% | 79% | +$165 | -$25,053 | 195.7% | $-24,042 (vs do-nothing $-11,585) |
| $347.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.80 | 1/1 | $1,600 | $1,526 | 72% | 77% | +$172 | -$25,243 | 197.2% | $-24,232 (vs do-nothing $-11,775) |
| $340 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.45 | 1/1 | $3,675 | $3,601 | 71% | 76% | $-211 | -$26,228 | 204.9% | $-25,217 (vs do-nothing $-12,760) |
| $350 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.00 | 1/1 | $1,312 | $1,239 | 70% | 76% | +$60 | -$24,773 | 193.5% | $-23,762 (vs do-nothing $-11,305) |
| $345 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 1/1 | $1,767 | $1,693 | 69% | 76% | +$121 | -$25,443 | 198.8% | $-24,432 (vs do-nothing $-11,975) |
| $342.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.60 | 1/1 | $1,867 | $1,793 | 67% | 73% | $-60 | -$25,663 | 200.5% | $-24,652 (vs do-nothing $-12,195) |
| $345 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.60 | 1/1 | $1,612 | $1,539 | 66% | 74% | +$158 | -$25,113 | 196.2% | $-24,102 (vs do-nothing $-11,645) |
| $337.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 1/1 | $4,500 | $4,426 | 66% | 73% | $-446 | -$26,423 | 206.4% | $-25,412 (vs do-nothing $-12,955) |
| $345 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $11.10 | 1/1 | $1,448 | $1,374 | 65% | 74% | +$133 | -$24,863 | 194.2% | $-23,852 (vs do-nothing $-11,395) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $342.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.00 | 1/1 | $1,688 | $1,614 | 64% | 72% | +$81 | -$25,323 | 197.8% | $-24,312 (vs do-nothing $-11,855) |
| $340 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.50 | 1/1 | $2,167 | $2,093 | 64% | 71% | $-30 | -$25,823 | 201.7% | $-24,812 (vs do-nothing $-12,355) |
| $340 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.10 | 1/1 | $1,894 | $1,820 | 62% | 71% | +$121 | -$25,463 | 198.9% | $-24,452 (vs do-nothing $-11,995) |
| $335 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.90 | 1/1 | $5,850 | $5,776 | 61% | 70% | $-372 | -$26,583 | 207.7% | $-25,572 (vs do-nothing $-13,115) |
| $337.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.00 | 1/1 | $2,333 | $2,259 | 61% | 70% | $-161 | -$26,023 | 203.3% | $-25,012 (vs do-nothing $-12,555) |
| $340 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $12.70 | 1/1 | $1,657 | $1,583 | 61% | 72% | +$111 | -$25,203 | 196.9% | $-24,192 (vs do-nothing $-11,735) |
| $337.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.00 | 1/1 | $2,062 | $1,989 | 59% | 70% | +$111 | -$25,623 | 200.2% | $-24,612 (vs do-nothing $-12,155) |
| $335 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.80 | 1/1 | $2,600 | $2,526 | 58% | 68% | $-223 | -$26,193 | 204.6% | $-25,182 (vs do-nothing $-12,725) |
| $335 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.90 | 1/1 | $2,231 | $2,157 | 57% | 69% | +$88 | -$25,783 | 201.4% | $-24,772 (vs do-nothing $-12,315) |
| $335 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $14.80 | 1/1 | $1,930 | $1,857 | 57% | 69% | +$124 | -$25,493 | 199.2% | $-24,482 (vs do-nothing $-12,025) |
| $332.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.50 | 1/1 | $6,750 | $6,676 | 56% | 66% | $-983 | -$26,773 | 209.2% | $-25,762 (vs do-nothing $-13,305) |
| $332.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.80 | 1/1 | $2,933 | $2,859 | 54% | 66% | $-249 | -$26,343 | 205.8% | $-25,332 (vs do-nothing $-12,875) |
| $332.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $13.00 | 1/1 | $2,438 | $2,364 | 54% | 67% | +$88 | -$25,923 | 202.5% | $-24,912 (vs do-nothing $-12,455) |
| $330 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $16.40 | 1/1 | $2,139 | $2,065 | 52% | 67% | +$40 | -$25,833 | 201.8% | $-24,822 (vs do-nothing $-12,365) |
| $330 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $14.20 | 1/1 | $2,662 | $2,589 | 52% | 66% | +$93 | -$26,053 | 203.5% | $-25,042 (vs do-nothing $-12,585) |
| $330 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.40 | 1/1 | $3,133 | $3,059 | 51% | 64% | $-441 | -$26,533 | 207.3% | $-25,522 (vs do-nothing $-13,065) |
| $330 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 1/1 | $7,950 | $7,876 | 50% | 63% | $-1,542 | -$26,943 | 210.5% | $-25,932 (vs do-nothing $-13,475) |
| $327.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $15.20 | 1/1 | $2,850 | $2,776 | 50% | 65% | $-48 | -$26,203 | 204.7% | $-25,192 (vs do-nothing $-12,735) |
| $325 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $18.60 | 1/1 | $2,426 | $2,352 | 48% | 66% | +$0 | -$26,113 | 204.0% | $-25,102 (vs do-nothing $-12,645) |
| $327.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $10.40 | 1/1 | $3,467 | $3,393 | 48% | 62% | $-532 | -$26,683 | 208.5% | $-25,672 (vs do-nothing $-13,215) |
| $325 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $16.30 | 1/1 | $3,056 | $2,982 | 47% | 63% | $-89 | -$26,343 | 205.8% | $-25,332 (vs do-nothing $-12,875) |
| $325 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.70 | 1/1 | $3,900 | $3,826 | 45% | 61% | $-556 | -$26,803 | 209.4% | $-25,792 (vs do-nothing $-13,335) |
| $327.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.50 | 1/1 | $9,750 | $9,676 | 44% | 60% | $-1,757 | -$27,073 | 211.5% | $-26,062 (vs do-nothing $-13,605) |
| $325 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.80 | 1/1 | $11,700 | $11,626 | 39% | 58% | $-2,073 | -$27,193 | 212.4% | $-26,182 (vs do-nothing $-13,725) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.