1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $602.72 (banked floor $578.32) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $48,300 | (ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100 |
| Normal income ref | $2,748/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $73/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,173 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 8d | 1 × $340 | 76% | $1,425 | $433 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $387.50 | 25 Sep | 8d | 21.0% | 98%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | +0pp | $30 | $112 | -$1,312 | $21,492 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $387.50 21.0% OTM over spot $320.26 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.45 mid) = $30 credit for the 8d cycle → $112/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $387.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $387.95) 98% EV / mo +$72 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $23/mo median; plan ~$16/mo after 68% keep · $176 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.0-6.7], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$867 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $402 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.68/sh now → $8.97 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $387.50 is $215 below CC-SS $602.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $387.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $388)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $602.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,173 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,127 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $387.50): -$21,492 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,537 (+$9,635 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-17,312 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,225, the opportunity cost of earning $112/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,034, position total $-22,318 (+$7,854 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 1 × $360 | 25 Sep | 8d | 12.4% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +3pp | $140 | $525 | -$900 | $24,132 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $360 12.4% OTM over spot $320.26 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.57 mid) = $140 credit for the 8d cycle → $525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $361.57) 91% EV / mo +$231 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $292/mo median; plan ~$199/mo after 68% keep · $2,397 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.4-7.0], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$693 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $380 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.78/sh now → $8.33 mid-life (likely $6.96–$11.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 350 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $366 (overshoots $5.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $243 below CC-SS $602.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $361.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $602.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,173 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,127 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $360): -$24,132 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,177 (+$6,995 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-17,312 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,865, the opportunity cost of earning $525/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,674, position total $-24,958 (+$5,214 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 1 × $347.50 | 25 Sep | 8d | 8.5% | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 30% | +2pp | $245 | $919 | -$506 | $25,277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $347.50 8.5% OTM over spot $320.26 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $2.88 mid) = $245 credit for the 8d cycle → $919/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $347.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $350.38) 85% EV / mo +$228 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 21% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $452/mo median; plan ~$307/mo after 68% keep · $3,770 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.5-6.3], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$559 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $377 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.37/sh now → $8.04 mid-life (likely $7.50–$12.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 746 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $353 (overshoots $5.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $347.50 is $255 below CC-SS $602.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.61/sh (~25% of the $2.45 collected) or spot ≥ $350.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $348)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $602.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,173 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,127 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $347.50): -$25,277 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,322 (+$5,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-17,312 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,010, the opportunity cost of earning $919/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,819, position total $-26,103 (+$4,069 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 1 × $340 | 25 Sep | 8d | 6.2% | 76%hist 84% | 48%hist 39% | +6pp | $380 | $1,425 | — | $25,892 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $340 6.2% OTM over spot $320.26 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $4.25 mid) = $380 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,425/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $340) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $344.25) 81% EV / mo +$301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $604/mo median; plan ~$410/mo after 68% keep · $5,126 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.6-7.3], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$407 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $375 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.13/sh now → $7.87 mid-life (likely $8.35–$12.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,065 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $346 (overshoots $6.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $340 is $263 below CC-SS $602.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.95/sh (~25% of the $3.80 collected) or spot ≥ $344.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $340)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $602.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,173 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,127 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $340): -$25,892 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,937 (+$5,235 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-17,312 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,625, the opportunity cost of earning $1,425/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,434, position total $-26,718 (+$3,454 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 1 × $325 | 25 Sep | 8d | 1.5% | 58%hist 70% | 86%hist 79% | +7pp | $770 | $2,888 | +$1,462 | $27,002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $325 1.5% OTM over spot $320.26 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $8.40 mid) = $770 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,888/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $325) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $333.40) 69% EV / mo +$147 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $822/mo median; plan ~$559/mo after 68% keep · $7,073 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo [3.6-7.1], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$18 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $380 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.64/sh now → $7.52 mid-life (likely $10.11–$14.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,093 simulated challenges: the $325 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $331 (overshoots $6.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $325 is $278 below CC-SS $602.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.93/sh (~25% of the $7.70 collected) or spot ≥ $333.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $325)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $602.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,173 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,127 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $325): -$27,002 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,047 (+$4,125 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-17,312 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,735, the opportunity cost of earning $2,888/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $428.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,544, position total $-27,828 (+$2,344 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.102 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$31,127 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-17,312
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $340 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 1/1 | $1,425 | $1,352 | 76% | 81% | +$301 | -$25,892 | 202.3% | $-24,937 (vs do-nothing $-7,625) |
| $337.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.20 | 1/1 | $1,575 | $1,502 | 74% | 79% | +$260 | -$26,102 | 203.9% | $-25,147 (vs do-nothing $-7,835) |
| $340 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.90 | 1/1 | $1,380 | $1,307 | 71% | 78% | +$249 | -$25,582 | 199.9% | $-24,627 (vs do-nothing $-7,315) |
| $335 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.90 | 1/1 | $1,838 | $1,765 | 71% | 77% | +$304 | -$26,282 | 205.3% | $-25,327 (vs do-nothing $-8,015) |
| $337.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.60 | 1/1 | $1,520 | $1,447 | 69% | 76% | +$254 | -$25,762 | 201.3% | $-24,807 (vs do-nothing $-7,495) |
| $332.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 1/1 | $2,025 | $1,952 | 68% | 75% | +$243 | -$26,482 | 206.9% | $-25,527 (vs do-nothing $-8,215) |
| $335 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.30 | 1/1 | $1,660 | $1,587 | 67% | 75% | +$245 | -$25,942 | 202.7% | $-24,987 (vs do-nothing $-7,675) |
| $330 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.00 | 1/1 | $2,250 | $2,177 | 65% | 73% | +$182 | -$26,672 | 208.4% | $-25,717 (vs do-nothing $-8,405) |
| $335 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $10.80 | 1/1 | $1,473 | $1,400 | 65% | 74% | +$160 | -$25,692 | 200.7% | $-24,737 (vs do-nothing $-7,425) |
| $332.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.90 | 1/1 | $1,780 | $1,707 | 65% | 73% | +$204 | -$26,132 | 204.2% | $-25,177 (vs do-nothing $-7,865) |
| $330 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.90 | 1/1 | $1,980 | $1,907 | 62% | 72% | +$229 | -$26,282 | 205.3% | $-25,327 (vs do-nothing $-8,015) |
| $327.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.80 | 1/1 | $2,550 | $2,477 | 62% | 71% | +$165 | -$26,842 | 209.7% | $-25,887 (vs do-nothing $-8,575) |
| $330 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $12.40 | 1/1 | $1,691 | $1,618 | 61% | 72% | +$135 | -$26,032 | 203.4% | $-25,077 (vs do-nothing $-7,765) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $327.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $10.70 | 1/1 | $2,140 | $2,067 | 60% | 71% | +$200 | -$26,452 | 206.7% | $-25,497 (vs do-nothing $-8,185) |
| $325 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.70 | 1/1 | $2,888 | $2,815 | 58% | 69% | +$147 | -$27,002 | 210.9% | $-26,047 (vs do-nothing $-8,735) |
| $325 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $11.40 | 1/1 | $2,280 | $2,207 | 57% | 69% | +$136 | -$26,632 | 208.1% | $-25,677 (vs do-nothing $-8,365) |
| $325 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $14.40 | 1/1 | $1,964 | $1,891 | 57% | 70% | +$133 | -$26,332 | 205.7% | $-25,377 (vs do-nothing $-8,065) |
| $322.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.50 | 1/1 | $3,188 | $3,115 | 55% | 67% | +$53 | -$27,172 | 212.3% | $-26,217 (vs do-nothing $-8,905) |
| $322.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $13.00 | 1/1 | $2,600 | $2,527 | 55% | 68% | +$304 | -$26,722 | 208.8% | $-25,767 (vs do-nothing $-8,455) |
| $320 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $16.40 | 1/1 | $2,236 | $2,164 | 53% | 68% | +$97 | -$26,632 | 208.1% | $-25,677 (vs do-nothing $-8,365) |
| $320 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $14.00 | 1/1 | $2,800 | $2,727 | 52% | 67% | +$275 | -$26,872 | 209.9% | $-25,917 (vs do-nothing $-8,605) |
| $320 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.70 | 1/1 | $3,638 | $3,565 | 51% | 65% | +$68 | -$27,302 | 213.3% | $-26,347 (vs do-nothing $-9,035) |
| $317.50 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $14.50 | 1/1 | $2,900 | $2,827 | 49% | 66% | +$130 | -$27,072 | 211.5% | $-26,117 (vs do-nothing $-8,805) |
| $315 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $18.20 | 1/1 | $2,482 | $2,409 | 48% | 65% | $-2 | -$26,952 | 210.6% | $-25,997 (vs do-nothing $-8,685) |
| $317.50 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $10.80 | 1/1 | $4,050 | $3,977 | 48% | 64% | +$4 | -$27,442 | 214.4% | $-26,487 (vs do-nothing $-9,175) |
| $315 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $15.70 | 1/1 | $3,140 | $3,067 | 47% | 65% | +$108 | -$27,202 | 212.5% | $-26,247 (vs do-nothing $-8,935) |
| $315 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.60 | 1/1 | $4,350 | $4,277 | 44% | 62% | $-214 | -$27,612 | 215.7% | $-26,657 (vs do-nothing $-9,345) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.