FORTRESS FIGHT: APP @ $319.19

BE SS: $588.00  |  CC-SS: $603.93  |  1 contracts (100 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-09-18 21:45

APP @ $319.19   UNDERWATER $268.81 (45.7% below BE SS)

1 contracts (100 sh)  |  BE SS: $588.00  |  CC-SS: $603.93 (banked floor $579.56)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $460 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $287.732/sh)
SP: $540 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $160.484/sh)
HP: $185 exp 2026-11-20 (entry $2.582/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$48,300(ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100
Normal income ref$2,636/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$69/mo
Unrealized P&L$-30,480fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,318/mo
HEDGE COVER
$69/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$2,636/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $12,800
ML VELOCITY
18.3 mo to earn back $48,300
Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $603.93 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $420C (14d, $11/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$2,598
Hole (after banked)
$27,882
was $30,480 · 9% earned back
Cycles closed
8
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$603.93 → $579.56
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 20 (live) · RSI 37 · MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 58 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $428.04 (+34%) · daily UBB $333.39 · 1-wk expected move ±$24 (chain IV)
SETUPOversold with mixed daily momentum: lean 🎯, keep DTE short, watch the daily band. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 1 contract at $335 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 75%, breach 25%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,318/mo); it brings $1,586/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $325/7d for $2,700/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $375/7d (98% survival, $107/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $26,523 (207% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $588, recoverable in 10.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-30,515 and cuts bleed by $69/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 25 Sep 2026 (7d) · sell 1 × $335, 75% survival, $1,586/mo (E[net] $402/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆25 Sep 2026 · 7d1 × $33575%$1,586$402
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $370 with probability 62%; on the 38% touch you roll, paying $736 to close and taking $380 back from the best priced door (net cash $356) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 25 Sep 2026 · 7d · E[net] $402/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $335 (50% normal), 75% survival, breach 25%, $1,586/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $342.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 25% → 16%) for $621/mo less (39% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $342.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect APP to stay flat-to-down near term.
APP  spot $319.19 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge1 × $37525 Sep7d17.5%98%hist 96%4%hist 3%+1pp$25$107-$1,479$22,868
Sell 1 × $375 17.5% OTM over spot $319.19 25 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.33 mid)
= $25 credit for the 7d cycle → $107/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $375)
98%
Breach risk
2%
POP (stays ≤ $375.32)
98%
EV / mo
+$72
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+1pp
16% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.3/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$22/mo
median; plan ~$15/mo after 68% keep · $190 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [3.6-7.4], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
2%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$799
Free roll-up
+$6/wk
Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026)
$396 @ 76% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.65/sh now → $8.24 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.99/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3752 Oct 202610d left+$3.03/sh+$303
cycle +$328
67%
surv 52%
-$23,974 NOT
cap gain +$6,506
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3812 Oct 202610d left+$0.83/sh+$83
cycle +$108
71%
surv 59%
-$23,550 NOT
cap gain +$6,930
Max even-money escape in the band~$39616 Oct 202624d left+$1.91/sh+$191
cycle +$216
76%
surv 69%
-$21,782 NOT
cap gain +$8,698
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$107/mo
vs 50% target ($1,318/mo)-92%
vs normal income ($2,636/mo)4% covered
Net income (after hedge)$38/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $375 is $229 below CC-SS $603.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$22,868
… as % of IC ($12,800)178.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)47.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)8.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-30,487
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $375.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $371.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$371-375.32
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $375.32
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$375.00 (2.4σ)$25$-24,277+$6,203+$20
+2.5%$384.37 (2.8σ)$-912$-24,177+$6,303-$917
+5%$393.75 (3.2σ)$-1,850$-24,076+$6,404-$1,855
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (11.4σ)$-21,275$-21,998+$8,482-$5,480
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,480
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,521
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $375): -$22,868
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,827 (+$8,653 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,480, the opportunity cost of earning $107/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $428.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,279, position total $-23,709 (+$6,771 vs today)
🛡 safe yield1 × $352.5025 Sep7d10.4%91%hist 96%19%hist 14%+2pp$110$471-$1,114$25,033
Sell 1 × $352.50 10.4% OTM over spot $319.19 25 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.35 mid)
= $110 credit for the 7d cycle → $471/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $352.50)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $353.85)
92%
EV / mo
+$209
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
18% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$278/mo
median; plan ~$189/mo after 68% keep · $2,387 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.8-6.9], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$664
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026)
$383 @ 81% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.95/sh now → $7.74 mid-life (likely $6.86–$11.55)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.64/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 368 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $358 (overshoots $5.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3522 Oct 202610d left+$3.50/sh+$350
cycle +$460
[+$288…+$483] · 99% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$26,333 NOT
cap gain +$4,147
Max even-money escape in the band~$37316 Oct 202624d left+$2.37/sh+$237
cycle +$347
[+$73…+$350] · 83% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$24,142 NOT
cap gain +$6,338
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3612 Oct 202610d left+$0.16/sh+$16
cycle +$126
[-$109…+$105] · 49% credit
72%
surv 63%
-$25,747 NOT
cap gain +$4,733
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$38316 Oct 202624d left-$0.18/sh-$18
cycle +$92
[-$229…+$73] · 39% credit
81%
surv 76%
-$23,290 NOT
cap gain +$7,190
budget: banked $110 debit $18 (16% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$92 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $946/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$471/mo
vs 50% target ($1,318/mo)-64%
vs normal income ($2,636/mo)18% covered
Net income (after hedge)$402/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $352.50 is $251 below CC-SS $603.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$25,033
… as % of IC ($12,800)195.6%
… as % of ML ($48,300)51.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)9.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-30,505
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $353.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $348.98Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$349-353.85
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $353.85
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$352.50 (1.4σ)$110$-26,683+$3,797+$105
+2.5%$361.31 (1.8σ)$-771$-26,588+$3,892-$776
+5%$370.12 (2.2σ)$-1,652$-26,494+$3,986-$1,658
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (11.4σ)$-23,440$-24,163+$6,317-$7,645
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,480
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,521
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $352.50): -$25,033
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,992 (+$6,488 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,645, the opportunity cost of earning $471/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $428.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,444, position total $-25,874 (+$4,606 vs today)
33% normal ← lean1 × $342.5025 Sep7d7.3%84%hist 86%34%hist 30%+3pp$225$964-$621$25,918
Sell 1 × $342.50 7.3% OTM over spot $319.19 25 Sep 2026 (7d, $2.52 mid)
= $225 credit for the 7d cycle → $964/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $342.50)
84%
Breach risk
16%
POP (stays ≤ $345.02)
86%
EV / mo
+$346
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
16% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$491/mo
median; plan ~$334/mo after 68% keep · $4,323 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [3.9-7.4], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
24%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$527
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026)
$383 @ 85% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.64/sh now → $7.52 mid-life (likely $7.13–$11.61)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.27/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 715 simulated challenges: the $342 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $348 (overshoots $5.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3422 Oct 202610d left+$3.68/sh+$368
cycle +$593
[+$285…+$462] · 99% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$27,307 NOT
cap gain +$3,173
Max even-money escape in the band~$36316 Oct 202624d left+$2.54/sh+$254
cycle +$479
[+$62…+$332] · 82% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$25,117 NOT
cap gain +$5,363
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3512 Oct 202610d left+$0.34/sh+$34
cycle +$259
[-$112…+$93] · 46% credit
72%
surv 63%
-$26,721 NOT
cap gain +$3,759
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$38316 Oct 202624d left-$2.01/sh-$201
cycle +$24
[-$476…-$154] · 11% credit
85%
surv 82%
-$23,358 NOT
cap gain +$7,122
budget: banked $225 debit $201 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $689/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$964/mo
vs 50% target ($1,318/mo)-27%
vs normal income ($2,636/mo)37% covered
Net income (after hedge)$895/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $342.50 is $261 below CC-SS $603.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$25,918
… as % of IC ($12,800)202.5%
… as % of ML ($48,300)53.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)9.8 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-30,507
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.25 collected) or spot ≥ $345.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $342)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $339.07Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$339-345.02
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $345.02
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$342.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$225$-27,675+$2,805+$220
+2.5%$351.06 (1.4σ)$-631$-27,583+$2,897-$636
+5%$359.62 (1.7σ)$-1,488$-27,491+$2,989-$1,492
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (11.4σ)$-24,325$-25,048+$5,432-$8,530
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,480
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,521
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $342.50): -$25,918
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,877 (+$5,603 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,530, the opportunity cost of earning $964/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $428.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,329, position total $-26,759 (+$3,721 vs today)
🎯 50% normal1 × $33525 Sep7d5.0%75%hist 84%50%hist 44%+7pp$370$1,586$26,523
Sell 1 × $335 5.0% OTM over spot $319.19 25 Sep 2026 (7d, $4.05 mid)
= $370 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,586/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $335)
75%
Breach risk
25%
POP (stays ≤ $339.05)
80%
EV / mo
+$460
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+7pp
19% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~5.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$686/mo
median; plan ~$466/mo after 68% keep · $5,961 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [4.3-7.4], measured ONLY among the 19% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
38%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$366
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026)
$386 @ 88% POP
86% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.40/sh now → $7.36 mid-life (likely $7.89–$12.42)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.66/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,142 simulated challenges: the $335 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $340 (overshoots $5.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3352 Oct 202610d left+$3.80/sh+$380
cycle +$750
[+$264…+$412] · 99% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$27,980 NOT
cap gain +$2,500
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$35616 Oct 202624d left+$2.65/sh+$265
cycle +$635
[+$23…+$271] · 78% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$25,791 NOT
cap gain +$4,689
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3432 Oct 202610d left+$0.47/sh+$47
cycle +$417
[-$136…+$51] · 35% credit
72%
surv 63%
-$27,393 NOT
cap gain +$3,087
Max even-money escape in the band~$36616 Oct 202624d left+$0.11/sh+$11
cycle +$381
[-$281…+$2] · 25% credit
81%
surv 76%
-$24,938 NOT
cap gain +$5,542
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$38616 Oct 202624d left-$3.47/sh-$347
cycle +$23
[-$729…-$385] · 1% credit
88%
surv 86%
-$23,082 NOT
cap gain +$7,398
budget: banked $370 debit $347 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $486/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,586/mo
vs 50% target ($1,318/mo)+20%
vs normal income ($2,636/mo)60% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,517/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $335 is $269 below CC-SS $603.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$26,523
… as % of IC ($12,800)207.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)54.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)10.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-30,515
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.93/sh (~25% of the $3.70 collected) or spot ≥ $339.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $335)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $331.65Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$332-339.05
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $339.05
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$335.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$370$-28,360+$2,120+$365
+2.5%$343.37 (1.0σ)$-467$-28,270+$2,210-$472
+5%$351.75 (1.4σ)$-1,305$-28,181+$2,299-$1,310
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (11.4σ)$-24,930$-25,653+$4,827-$9,135
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,480
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,521
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $335): -$26,523
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,482 (+$4,998 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,135, the opportunity cost of earning $1,586/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $428.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,934, position total $-27,364 (+$3,116 vs today)
100% normal1 × $32525 Sep7d1.8%61%hist 65%80%hist 67%+8pp$630$2,700+$1,114$27,263
Sell 1 × $325 1.8% OTM over spot $319.19 25 Sep 2026 (7d, $7.00 mid)
= $630 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,700/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $325)
61%
Breach risk
39%
POP (stays ≤ $332.00)
72%
EV / mo
+$375
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+8pp
22% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~10.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$856/mo
median; plan ~$582/mo after 68% keep · $7,361 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.1 mo [4.5-7.5], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
63%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$84
Free roll-up
+$8/wk
Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026)
$386 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.09/sh now → $7.14 mid-life (likely $9.30–$13.35)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $6.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,889 simulated challenges: the $325 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $330 (overshoots $5.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$3252 Oct 202610d left+$3.95/sh+$395
cycle +$1,025
[+$247…+$339] · 99% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$28,811 NOT
cap gain +$1,669
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$34616 Oct 202624d left+$2.77/sh+$277
cycle +$907
[-$27…+$169] · 71% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$26,626 NOT
cap gain +$3,854
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$3332 Oct 202610d left+$0.62/sh+$62
cycle +$692
[-$164…-$17] · 19% credit
72%
surv 63%
-$28,225 NOT
cap gain +$2,255
Max even-money escape in the band~$35616 Oct 202624d left+$0.25/sh+$25
cycle +$655
[-$337…-$102] · 12% credit
81%
surv 77%
-$25,771 NOT
cap gain +$4,709
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$38616 Oct 202624d left-$4.39/sh-$439
cycle +$191
[-$933…-$613]
91%
surv 90%
-$22,914 NOT
cap gain +$7,566
budget: banked $630 debit $439 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$191 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $344/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,700/mo
vs 50% target ($1,318/mo)+105%
vs normal income ($2,636/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,631/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $325 is $279 below CC-SS $603.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$27,263
… as % of IC ($12,800)213.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)56.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)10.3 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-30,550
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.57/sh (~25% of the $6.30 collected) or spot ≥ $332.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $325)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $333.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $321.75Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$322-332.00
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $332.00
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$325.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$630$-29,207+$1,273+$625
+2.5%$333.12 (≤1σ, normal week)$-182$-29,120+$1,360-$187
+5%$341.25 (≤1σ, normal week)$-995$-29,033+$1,447-$1,000
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (11.4σ)$-25,670$-26,393+$4,087-$9,875
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $603.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,480
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,521
− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $325): -$27,263
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,222 (+$4,258 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,347 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,875, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $428.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,674, position total $-28,104 (+$2,376 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on APP are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (26 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.107 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$31,521 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-16,347

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$3357d25 Sep 2026$3.701/1$1,586$1,51775%80%+$460-$26,523207.2%$-25,482 (vs do-nothing $-9,135)
$332.507d25 Sep 2026$4.301/1$1,843$1,77472%78%+$481-$26,713208.7%$-25,672 (vs do-nothing $-9,325)
$337.5014d2 Oct 2026$6.701/1$1,436$1,36772%78%+$397-$25,973202.9%$-24,932 (vs do-nothing $-8,585)
$33514d2 Oct 2026$7.101/1$1,521$1,45270%77%+$349-$26,183204.6%$-25,142 (vs do-nothing $-8,795)
$3307d25 Sep 2026$5.001/1$2,143$2,07469%76%+$506-$26,893210.1%$-25,852 (vs do-nothing $-9,505)
$332.5014d2 Oct 2026$7.901/1$1,693$1,62467%75%+$372-$26,353205.9%$-25,312 (vs do-nothing $-8,965)
$33521d9 Oct 2026$9.901/1$1,414$1,34567%75%+$310-$25,903202.4%$-24,862 (vs do-nothing $-8,515)
$327.507d25 Sep 2026$5.701/1$2,443$2,37465%74%+$486-$27,073211.5%$-26,032 (vs do-nothing $-9,685)
$33014d2 Oct 2026$8.601/1$1,843$1,77464%74%+$357-$26,533207.3%$-25,492 (vs do-nothing $-9,145)
$33021d9 Oct 2026$11.301/1$1,614$1,54563%73%+$277-$26,263205.2%$-25,222 (vs do-nothing $-8,875)
$33028d16 Oct 2026$14.401/1$1,543$1,47462%73%+$325-$25,953202.8%$-24,912 (vs do-nothing $-8,565)
$327.5014d2 Oct 2026$9.401/1$2,014$1,94562%72%+$347-$26,703208.6%$-25,662 (vs do-nothing $-9,315)
$3257d25 Sep 2026$6.301/1$2,700$2,63161%72%+$375-$27,263213.0%$-26,222 (vs do-nothing $-9,875)
Show 13 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$32514d2 Oct 2026$10.601/1$2,271$2,20259%71%+$404-$26,833209.6%$-25,792 (vs do-nothing $-9,445)
$32521d9 Oct 2026$13.101/1$1,871$1,80258%72%+$264-$26,583207.7%$-25,542 (vs do-nothing $-9,195)
$322.507d25 Sep 2026$7.801/1$3,343$3,27457%70%+$599-$27,363213.8%$-26,322 (vs do-nothing $-9,975)
$322.5014d2 Oct 2026$11.501/1$2,464$2,39556%69%+$378-$26,993210.9%$-25,952 (vs do-nothing $-9,605)
$32028d16 Oct 2026$19.001/1$2,036$1,96754%69%+$370-$26,493207.0%$-25,452 (vs do-nothing $-9,105)
$32021d9 Oct 2026$15.501/1$2,214$2,14553%68%+$296-$26,843209.7%$-25,802 (vs do-nothing $-9,455)
$32014d2 Oct 2026$12.301/1$2,636$2,56753%68%+$312-$27,163212.2%$-26,122 (vs do-nothing $-9,775)
$3207d25 Sep 2026$8.501/1$3,643$3,57453%67%+$427-$27,543215.2%$-26,502 (vs do-nothing $-10,155)
$317.5014d2 Oct 2026$13.701/1$2,936$2,86750%67%+$354-$27,273213.1%$-26,232 (vs do-nothing $-9,885)
$317.507d25 Sep 2026$9.501/1$4,071$4,00249%66%+$327-$27,693216.4%$-26,652 (vs do-nothing $-10,305)
$31521d9 Oct 2026$17.901/1$2,557$2,48848%67%+$286-$27,103211.7%$-26,062 (vs do-nothing $-9,715)
$31514d2 Oct 2026$15.401/1$3,300$3,23147%66%+$440-$27,353213.7%$-26,312 (vs do-nothing $-9,965)
$3157d25 Sep 2026$11.101/1$4,757$4,68844%64%+$428-$27,783217.1%$-26,742 (vs do-nothing $-10,395)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-09-18 21:45