FORTRESS FIGHT: APP @ $280.44

BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $610.48 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

APP @ $280.44 UNDERWATER $307.56 (52.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

APP reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 23 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-04.

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $610.48 (banked floor $582.44) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $460 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $287.732/sh)

SP: $540 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $160.484/sh)

HP: $185 exp 2026-11-20 (entry $2.582/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,300	(ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100
Normal income ref	$2,688/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$127/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-35,452	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,344/mo

HEDGE COVER
$127/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$2,688/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.8 mo to earn back $12,800

ML VELOCITY
18.0 mo to earn back $48,300

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $610.48 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $345C (11d, $14/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,995

Hole (after banked)

$32,458

was $35,452 · 8% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$610.48 → $582.44

? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Full leg history (13) and event log · CLOSED 5 · UNKNOWN 4 · EXPIRED 4 · updated 2026-10-12 21:43

Status	Leg	Credit/sh	Credit	Opened	Closed	Close/sh	Banked	Account	Source
EXPIRED	1x $300C 9 Oct 2026	$1.91	$191	2026-10-06	2026-10-12	$0.00	$191	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $295C 9 Oct 2026	$3.00	$300	2026-10-05	2026-10-06	$3.69	$-69	U18827291	snapshot
EXPIRED	1x $335C 2 Oct 2026	$2.75	$275	2026-09-28	2026-10-05	$0.00	$275	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $370C 2 Oct 2026	$1.70	$170	2026-09-22	2026-09-28	$1.70	$0	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $330C 25 Sep 2026	$3.20	$320	2026-09-21	2026-09-22	$3.20	$0	U18827291	snapshot
EXPIRED	1x $332.5C 11 Sep 2026	$2.50	$250	2026-09-08	2026-09-14	$0.00	$250	U18827291	snapshot
EXPIRED	1x $360C 4 Sep 2026	$2.37	$237	2026-08-19	2026-09-08	$0.00	$237	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $320C 21 Aug 2026	$3.56	$356	2026-08-18	2026-08-19	$3.56	$0	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $435C 31 Jul 2026	$6.92	$692	2026-07-23	2026-07-30	$1.40	$552	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $465C 31 Jul 2026	$10.80	$1,080	2026-07-22	2026-07-23	$2.08	$872	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $480C 24 Jul 2026	$6.90	$690	2026-07-17	2026-07-22	$6.90	$0	U18827291	snapshot
CLOSED	1x $490C 17 Jul 2026	$3.00	$300	2026-07-15	2026-07-16	$0.28	$272	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $600C 17 Jul 2026	$4.35	$435	2026-07-02	2026-07-13	$0.20	$415	U18827291	seed

Event log

2026-10-12 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $300C: banked $191

2026-10-06 BOT 1x $355C 20261023 @ $0.72 with no tracked leg (ignored)

2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $300C 20261009 @ $1.91 (new leg)

2026-10-06 CLOSED 1x $295C 20261009: banked $-69

2026-10-06 SLD 1x $355C 20261023 @ $0.86 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)

2026-10-05 TRACKING 1x $295C 20261009 @ $3.00 (snapshot)

2026-10-05 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $335C: banked $275

2026-09-28 TRACKING 1x $335C 20261002 @ $2.75 (snapshot)

2026-09-28 ? 1x $370C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-22 TRACKING 1x $370C 20261002 @ $1.70 (snapshot)

2026-09-22 ? 1x $330C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-21 TRACKING 1x $330C 20260925 @ $3.20 (snapshot)

2026-09-14 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $332.5C: banked $250

2026-09-08 TRACKING 1x $332.5C 20260911 @ $2.50 (snapshot)

2026-09-08 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $360C: banked $237

2026-08-19 TRACKING 1x $360C 20260904 @ $2.37 (snapshot)

2026-08-19 ? 1x $320C 20260821 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-08-18 SOLD 1x $320C 20260821 @ $3.56 (new leg)

2026-07-30 CLOSED 1x $435C 20260731: banked $552

2026-07-23 CLOSED 1x $465C 20260731: banked $872

2026-07-23 SOLD 1x $435C 20260731 @ $6.92 (new leg)

2026-07-22 TRACKING 1x $465C 20260731 @ $10.80 (snapshot)

2026-07-22 ? 1x $480C 20260724 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-07-17 TRACKING 1x $480C 20260724 @ $6.90 (snapshot)

2026-07-16 CLOSED 1x $490C 20260717: banked $272

2026-07-15 SOLD 1x $490C 20260717 @ $3.00 (new leg)

2026-07-13 CLOSED 1x $600C 20260717: banked $415

2026-07-02 TRACKING 1x $600C 20260717 @ $4.35 (seed)

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 22 (live) · RSI 35 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 39 · %B 27 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $381.10 (+36%) · daily UBB $337.84 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 1 contract at $295 / 4d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,344/mo); it brings $1,500/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $287.50/4d for $2,850/mo, but breach risk rises to 33% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $320/4d (98% survival, $188/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $31,348 (245% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $588, recoverable in 11.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-35,485 and cuts bleed by $127/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 16 Oct 2026 (4d) · sell 1 × $295, 80% survival, $1,500/mo (E[net] $755/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	16 Oct 2026 · 4d	1 × $295	80%	$1,500	$755
NEXT FRIDAY	23 Oct 2026 · 11d	1 × $292.50	69%	$1,473	$-132

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $200 with probability 73%; on the 27% touch you roll, paying $548 to close and taking $375 back from the best priced door (net cash $173) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 16 Oct 2026 · 4d · E[net] $755/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $295 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $1,500/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $300 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 20% → 14%) for $450/mo less (30% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $300 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect APP to stay flat-to-down near term.

APP spot $280.44 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $320

16 Oct

14.1%

98%hist 95%

5%hist 4%

+1pp

$25

$188

-$1,312

$29,023

Sell 1 × $320 14.1% OTM over spot $280.44 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.30 mid)

= $25 credit for the 4d cycle → $188/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $320)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $320.30)

98%

EV / mo

+$137

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

12% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$39/mo

median; plan ~$27/mo after 68% keep · $317 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.7 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$569

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)

$370 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.41/sh now → $5.94 mid-life (likely $4.31–$8.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $320 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 4, at $325 (overshoots $5.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$320	23 Oct 2026	9d left	+$3.38/sh	+$338 cycle +$363 [+$350…+$495] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$30,675 NOT cap gain +$4,778
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$365	6 Nov 2026	23d left	+$1.66/sh	+$166 cycle +$191 [-$13…+$296] · 70% credit	82% surv 79%	-$25,875 NOT cap gain +$9,577
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$327	23 Oct 2026	9d left	+$0.42/sh	+$42 cycle +$67 [-$22…+$170] · 66% credit	72% surv 63%	-$30,184 NOT cap gain +$5,268
Max even-money escape in the band	~$370	6 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.54/sh	+$54 cycle +$79 [-$140…+$187] · 58% credit	84% surv 81%	-$25,429 NOT cap gain +$10,023
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$188/mo
vs 50% target ($1,344/mo)	-86%
vs normal income ($2,688/mo)	7% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$61/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $320 is $290 below CC-SS $610.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$29,023
… as % of IC ($12,800)	226.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	60.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.8 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,458

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $320.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $320)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $337.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $316.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $317-320.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $320.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$320.00 (2.5σ)	$25	$-31,013	+$4,439	+$20
+2.5%	$328.00 (3.0σ)	$-775	$-30,920	+$4,532	-$780
+5%	$336.00 (3.5σ)	$-1,575	$-30,828	+$4,625	-$1,580
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (19.2σ)	$-26,775	$-27,904	+$7,548	-$4,480

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $610.48, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,452

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,832

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $320): -$29,023

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,644 (+$7,809 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,480, the opportunity cost of earning $188/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $381.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,085, position total $-30,304 (+$5,148 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

1 × $305

16 Oct

8.8%

91%hist 95%

19%hist 14%

+2pp

$75

$562

-$938

$30,473

Sell 1 × $305 8.8% OTM over spot $280.44 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $0.93 mid)

= $75 credit for the 4d cycle → $562/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $305)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $305.93)

91%

EV / mo

+$212

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

14% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$283/mo

median; plan ~$192/mo after 68% keep · $2,419 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$492

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)

$365 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Buyback gross: $8.01/sh now → $5.67 mid-life (likely $5.20–$9.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 344 simulated challenges: the $305 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $310 (overshoots $5.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$305	23 Oct 2026	9d left	+$3.62/sh	+$362 cycle +$437 [+$304…+$463] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$32,275 NOT cap gain +$3,177
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$350	6 Nov 2026	23d left	+$1.67/sh	+$167 cycle +$242 [-$106…+$218] · 64% credit	83% surv 80%	-$27,497 NOT cap gain +$7,955
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$312	23 Oct 2026	9d left	+$0.65/sh	+$65 cycle +$140 [-$72…+$138] · 60% credit	72% surv 63%	-$31,784 NOT cap gain +$3,668
Max even-money escape in the band	~$355	6 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.58/sh	+$58 cycle +$133 [-$234…+$105] · 45% credit	84% surv 82%	-$27,049 NOT cap gain +$8,404
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$365	6 Nov 2026	23d left	-$0.43/sh	-$43 cycle +$32 [-$354…+$0] · 25% credit	87% surv 85%	-$26,034 NOT cap gain +$9,419
budget: banked $75 debit $43 (57% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$32 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $683/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$562/mo
vs 50% target ($1,344/mo)	-58%
vs normal income ($2,688/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$436/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $305 is $305 below CC-SS $610.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,473
… as % of IC ($12,800)	238.1%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	63.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.3 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,470

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $305.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $305)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $337.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $301.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $302-305.93	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $305.93	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$305.00 (1.5σ)	$75	$-32,637	+$2,815	+$70
+2.5%	$312.62 (2.0σ)	$-688	$-32,549	+$2,904	-$692
+5%	$320.25 (2.5σ)	$-1,450	$-32,460	+$2,992	-$1,455
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (19.2σ)	$-28,225	$-29,354	+$6,098	-$5,930

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $610.48, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,452

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,832

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $305): -$30,473

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,094 (+$6,359 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,930, the opportunity cost of earning $562/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $381.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,535, position total $-31,754 (+$3,698 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

1 × $300

16 Oct

7.0%

86%hist 86%

29%hist 24%

+5pp

$140

$1,050

-$450

$30,908

Sell 1 × $300 7.0% OTM over spot $280.44 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $1.50 mid)

= $140 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,050/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $300)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $301.50)

88%

EV / mo

+$425

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

16% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$558/mo

median; plan ~$380/mo after 68% keep · $4,768 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.0 mo [4.7-7.6], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$417

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)

$365 @ 88% POP

87% survival

Buyback gross: $7.88/sh now → $5.57 mid-life (likely $5.58–$9.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 534 simulated challenges: the $300 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $305 (overshoots $5.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$300	23 Oct 2026	9d left	+$3.69/sh	+$369 cycle +$509 [+$283…+$454] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$32,762 NOT cap gain +$2,691
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$345	6 Nov 2026	23d left	+$1.67/sh	+$167 cycle +$307 [-$118…+$186] · 61% credit	83% surv 80%	-$27,991 NOT cap gain +$7,462
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$307	23 Oct 2026	9d left	+$0.73/sh	+$73 cycle +$213 [-$83…+$123] · 56% credit	72% surv 63%	-$32,270 NOT cap gain +$3,182
Max even-money escape in the band	~$350	6 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.59/sh	+$59 cycle +$199 [-$245…+$73] · 41% credit	84% surv 82%	-$27,541 NOT cap gain +$7,911
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$365	6 Nov 2026	23d left	-$1.39/sh	-$139 cycle +$1 [-$477…-$132] · 7% credit	88% surv 87%	-$26,065 NOT cap gain +$9,388
budget: banked $140 debit $139 (99% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $546/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,050/mo
vs 50% target ($1,344/mo)	-22%
vs normal income ($2,688/mo)	39% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$923/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $300 is $310 below CC-SS $610.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,908
… as % of IC ($12,800)	241.5%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	64.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,462

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $301.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $300)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $337.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $297.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $297-301.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $301.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$300.00 (1.2σ)	$140	$-33,130	+$2,322	+$135
+2.5%	$307.50 (1.7σ)	$-610	$-33,043	+$2,409	-$615
+5%	$315.00 (2.2σ)	$-1,360	$-32,956	+$2,496	-$1,365
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (19.2σ)	$-28,660	$-29,789	+$5,663	-$6,365

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $610.48, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,452

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,832

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $300): -$30,908

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,529 (+$5,924 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,365, the opportunity cost of earning $1,050/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $381.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,970, position total $-32,189 (+$3,263 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

1 × $295

16 Oct

5.2%

80%hist 82%

41%hist 42%

+4pp

$200

$1,500

—

$31,348

Sell 1 × $295 5.2% OTM over spot $280.44 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $2.33 mid)

= $200 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $295)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $297.32)

83%

EV / mo

+$410

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

15% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~6.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$685/mo

median; plan ~$466/mo after 68% keep · $5,945 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.3 mo [4.3-7.5], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$348

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)

$365 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $7.75/sh now → $5.48 mid-life (likely $5.88–$10.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 799 simulated challenges: the $295 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $300 (overshoots $5.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$295	23 Oct 2026	9d left	+$3.75/sh	+$375 cycle +$575 [+$273…+$437] · 98% credit	66% surv 52%	-$33,253 NOT cap gain +$2,199
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$335	6 Nov 2026	23d left	+$3.32/sh	+$332 cycle +$532 [+$44…+$318] · 78% credit	82% surv 78%	-$28,882 NOT cap gain +$6,570
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$302	23 Oct 2026	9d left	+$0.79/sh	+$79 cycle +$279 [-$105…+$90] · 49% credit	72% surv 63%	-$32,762 NOT cap gain +$2,691
Max even-money escape in the band	~$345	6 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.59/sh	+$59 cycle +$259 [-$284…+$36] · 33% credit	84% surv 82%	-$28,039 NOT cap gain +$7,413
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$365	6 Nov 2026	23d left	-$1.48/sh	-$148 cycle +$52 [-$534…-$178] · 5% credit	90% surv 89%	-$26,014 NOT cap gain +$9,439
budget: banked $200 debit $148 (74% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$52 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $522/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,500/mo
vs 50% target ($1,344/mo)	+12%
vs normal income ($2,688/mo)	56% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,373/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $295 is $315 below CC-SS $610.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,348
… as % of IC ($12,800)	244.9%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	64.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,485

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $297.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $295)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $337.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $292.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $292-297.32	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $297.32	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$295.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$200	$-33,628	+$1,824	+$195
+2.5%	$302.38 (1.4σ)	$-538	$-33,543	+$1,910	-$542
+5%	$309.75 (1.8σ)	$-1,275	$-33,457	+$1,995	-$1,280
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (19.2σ)	$-29,100	$-30,229	+$5,223	-$6,805

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $610.48, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,452

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,832

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $295): -$31,348

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,969 (+$5,484 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,805, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $381.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,410, position total $-32,629 (+$2,823 vs today)

▸

100% normal

1 × $287.50

16 Oct

2.5%

67%hist 64%

68%hist 57%

+8pp

$380

$2,850

+$1,350

$31,918

Sell 1 × $287.50 2.5% OTM over spot $280.44 16 Oct 2026 (4d, $4.05 mid)

= $380 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,850/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $287.50)

67%

Breach risk

33%

POP (stays ≤ $291.55)

74%

EV / mo

+$495

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

16% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~11.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$996/mo

median; plan ~$677/mo after 68% keep · $8,597 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.2 mo [4.8-7.6], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

48%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$154

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)

$362 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $7.55/sh now → $5.34 mid-life (likely $6.57–$10.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,432 simulated challenges: the $288 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $293 (overshoots $5.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$288	23 Oct 2026	9d left	+$3.84/sh	+$384 cycle +$764 [+$261…+$376] · 99% credit	66% surv 52%	-$33,901 NOT cap gain +$1,551
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$327	6 Nov 2026	23d left	+$3.27/sh	+$327 cycle +$707 [+$23…+$260] · 78% credit	82% surv 78%	-$29,544 NOT cap gain +$5,909
Max even-money escape in the band	~$337	6 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.58/sh	+$58 cycle +$438 [-$300…-$27] · 21% credit	85% surv 82%	-$28,697 NOT cap gain +$6,756
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$297	23 Oct 2026	9d left	+$0.02/sh	+$2 cycle +$382 [-$228…-$45] · 15% credit	74% surv 67%	-$33,217 NOT cap gain +$2,235
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$362	6 Nov 2026	23d left	-$2.47/sh	-$247 cycle +$133 [-$673…-$349]	91% surv 90%	-$26,212 NOT cap gain +$9,241
budget: banked $380 debit $247 (65% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$133 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $374/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,850/mo
vs 50% target ($1,344/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($2,688/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,723/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $287.50 is $323 below CC-SS $610.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,918
… as % of IC ($12,800)	249.4%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	66.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.9 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,478

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.95/sh (~25% of the $3.80 collected) or spot ≥ $291.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $288)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $337.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $284.62	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $285-291.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $291.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$287.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$380	$-34,285	+$1,167	+$375
+2.5%	$294.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-339	$-34,202	+$1,251	-$344
+5%	$301.88 (1.3σ)	$-1,058	$-34,118	+$1,334	-$1,062
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (19.2σ)	$-29,670	$-30,799	+$4,653	-$7,375

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $610.48, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,452

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,832

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $287.50): -$31,918

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,539 (+$4,914 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,375, the opportunity cost of earning $2,850/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $381.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,980, position total $-33,199 (+$2,253 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on APP are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 23 Oct 2026 · 11d · E[net] $-132/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $292.50 (50% normal), 69% survival, breach 31%, $1,473/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $300 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 77% (breach 31% → 23%) for $491/mo less (33% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

APP spot $280.44 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $330

23 Oct

11d

17.7%

96%hist 95%

9%hist 4%

+1pp

$60

$164

-$1,309

$27,988

Sell 1 × $330 17.7% OTM over spot $280.44 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $0.77 mid)

= $60 credit for the 11d cycle → $164/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $330)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $330.77)

96%

EV / mo

+$94

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

10% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$11/mo

median; plan ~$7/mo after 68% keep · $87 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$886

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)

$360 @ 85% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.38/sh now → $9.46 mid-life (likely $6.77–$11.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 161 simulated challenges: the $330 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $336 (overshoots $6.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$330	30 Oct 2026	12d left	+$1.47/sh	+$147 cycle +$207 [+$143…+$384] · 94% credit	66% surv 52%	-$29,715 NOT cap gain +$5,737
Max even-money escape in the band	~$355	6 Nov 2026	20d left	+$1.36/sh	+$136 cycle +$196 [+$90…+$295] · 89% credit	83% surv 76%	-$26,986 NOT cap gain +$8,466
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$332	30 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.56/sh	+$56 cycle +$116 [+$17…+$275] · 80% credit	68% surv 55%	-$29,577 NOT cap gain +$5,875
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$360	6 Nov 2026	20d left	-$0.22/sh	-$22 cycle +$38 [-$88…+$125] · 52% credit	85% surv 80%	-$26,586 NOT cap gain +$8,867
budget: banked $60 debit $22 (36% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$38 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,386/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$164/mo
vs 50% target ($1,344/mo)	-88%
vs normal income ($2,688/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$37/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $330 is $280 below CC-SS $610.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,988
… as % of IC ($12,800)	218.7%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	57.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,470

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $330.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $330)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $337.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $326.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $327-330.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $330.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$330.00 (1.9σ)	$60	$-29,862	+$5,590	+$55
+2.5%	$338.25 (2.2σ)	$-765	$-29,766	+$5,686	-$770
+5%	$346.50 (2.5σ)	$-1,590	$-29,671	+$5,782	-$1,595
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (11.6σ)	$-25,740	$-26,869	+$8,583	-$3,445

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $610.48, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,452

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,832

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $330): -$27,988

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,609 (+$8,844 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,445, the opportunity cost of earning $164/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $381.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,050, position total $-29,269 (+$6,183 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

1 × $320

23 Oct

11d

14.1%

92%hist 95%

16%hist 14%

+1pp

$115

$314

-$1,159

$28,933

Sell 1 × $320 14.1% OTM over spot $280.44 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $1.32 mid)

= $115 credit for the 11d cycle → $314/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $320)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $321.32)

93%

EV / mo

+$153

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

8% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$108/mo

median; plan ~$73/mo after 68% keep · $935 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.4 mo, measured ONLY among the 8% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$802

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)

$350 @ 85% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $12.97/sh now → $9.17 mid-life (likely $7.14–$12.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 291 simulated challenges: the $320 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $325 (overshoots $5.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$345	6 Nov 2026	20d left	+$1.64/sh	+$164 cycle +$279 [+$109…+$271] · 95% credit	83% surv 76%	-$28,019 NOT cap gain +$7,434
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$320	30 Oct 2026	12d left	+$1.74/sh	+$174 cycle +$289 [+$128…+$340] · 95% credit	66% surv 52%	-$30,749 NOT cap gain +$4,704
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$322	30 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.83/sh	+$83 cycle +$198 [+$22…+$239] · 81% credit	68% surv 55%	-$30,611 NOT cap gain +$4,842
Max even-money escape in the band	~$350	6 Nov 2026	20d left	+$0.07/sh	+$7 cycle +$122 [-$79…+$104] · 50% credit	85% surv 80%	-$27,618 NOT cap gain +$7,835
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$314/mo
vs 50% target ($1,344/mo)	-77%
vs normal income ($2,688/mo)	12% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$187/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $320 is $290 below CC-SS $610.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,933
… as % of IC ($12,800)	226.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	59.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.8 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,470

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $321.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $320)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $337.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $316.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $317-321.32	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $321.32	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$320.00 (1.5σ)	$115	$-30,923	+$4,529	+$110
+2.5%	$328.00 (1.8σ)	$-685	$-30,830	+$4,622	-$690
+5%	$336.00 (2.1σ)	$-1,485	$-30,738	+$4,715	-$1,490
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (11.6σ)	$-26,685	$-27,814	+$7,638	-$4,390

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $610.48, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,452

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,832

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $320): -$28,933

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,554 (+$7,899 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,390, the opportunity cost of earning $314/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $381.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,995, position total $-30,214 (+$5,238 vs today)

▸

33% normal

1 × $300

23 Oct

11d

7.0%

77%hist 82%

46%hist 42%

+2pp

$360

$982

-$491

$30,688

Sell 1 × $300 7.0% OTM over spot $280.44 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $4.05 mid)

= $360 credit for the 11d cycle → $982/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $300)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $304.05)

81%

EV / mo

+$252

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

11% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$359/mo

median; plan ~$244/mo after 68% keep · $3,175 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.1 mo, measured ONLY among the 11% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

36%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$500

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)

$330 @ 86% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $12.16/sh now → $8.60 mid-life (likely $8.79–$13.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,083 simulated challenges: the $300 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $305 (overshoots $4.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$325	6 Nov 2026	20d left	+$2.09/sh	+$209 cycle +$569 [+$128…+$215] · 98% credit	84% surv 76%	-$29,961 NOT cap gain +$5,492
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$300	30 Oct 2026	12d left	+$2.23/sh	+$223 cycle +$583 [+$107…+$262] · 96% credit	66% surv 52%	-$32,687 NOT cap gain +$2,766
Max even-money escape in the band	~$330	6 Nov 2026	20d left	+$0.53/sh	+$53 cycle +$413 [-$60…+$52] · 47% credit	86% surv 80%	-$29,558 NOT cap gain +$5,894
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$305	30 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.08/sh	+$8 cycle +$368 [-$142…+$23] · 30% credit	69% surv 58%	-$32,394 NOT cap gain +$3,058

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$982/mo
vs 50% target ($1,344/mo)	-27%
vs normal income ($2,688/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$855/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $300 is $310 below CC-SS $610.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,688
… as % of IC ($12,800)	239.8%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	63.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,498

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $304.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $300)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $337.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $297.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $297-304.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $304.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$300.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$360	$-32,910	+$2,542	+$355
+2.5%	$307.50 (1.0σ)	$-390	$-32,823	+$2,629	-$395
+5%	$315.00 (1.3σ)	$-1,140	$-32,736	+$2,716	-$1,145
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (11.6σ)	$-28,440	$-29,569	+$5,883	-$6,145

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $610.48, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,452

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,832

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $300): -$30,688

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,309 (+$6,144 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,145, the opportunity cost of earning $982/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $381.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,750, position total $-31,969 (+$3,483 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

1 × $292.50

23 Oct

11d

4.3%

69%hist 64%

64%hist 57%

+3pp

$540

$1,473

—

$31,258

Sell 1 × $292.50 4.3% OTM over spot $280.44 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $5.95 mid)

= $540 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,473/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $292.50)

69%

Breach risk

31%

POP (stays ≤ $298.45)

76%

EV / mo

+$270

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

12% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$472/mo

median; plan ~$321/mo after 68% keep · $4,197 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.2 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

52%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$299

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)

$362 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $11.86/sh now → $8.39 mid-life (likely $10.01–$14.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,550 simulated challenges: the $292 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $297 (overshoots $5.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$317	6 Nov 2026	20d left	+$2.22/sh	+$222 cycle +$762 [+$131…+$191] · 98% credit	84% surv 76%	-$30,605 NOT cap gain +$4,847
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$292	30 Oct 2026	12d left	+$2.40/sh	+$240 cycle +$780 [+$99…+$211] · 95% credit	66% surv 52%	-$33,328 NOT cap gain +$2,125
Max even-money escape in the band	~$322	6 Nov 2026	20d left	+$0.67/sh	+$67 cycle +$607 [-$61…+$25] · 44% credit	86% surv 80%	-$30,202 NOT cap gain +$5,250
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$297	30 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.24/sh	+$24 cycle +$564 [-$162…-$27] · 20% credit	69% surv 58%	-$33,035 NOT cap gain +$2,418
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$362	6 Nov 2026	20d left	-$5.38/sh	-$538 cycle +$2 [-$957…-$660]	91% surv 90%	-$26,343 NOT cap gain +$9,110
budget: banked $540 debit $538 (100% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $451/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,473/mo
vs 50% target ($1,344/mo)	+10%
vs normal income ($2,688/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,346/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $292.50 is $318 below CC-SS $610.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,258
… as % of IC ($12,800)	244.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	64.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.6 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,508

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.35/sh (~25% of the $5.40 collected) or spot ≥ $298.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $292)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $337.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $289.57	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $290-298.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $298.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$292.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$540	$-33,567	+$1,885	+$535
+2.5%	$299.81 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-191	$-33,482	+$1,970	-$196
+5%	$307.12 (1.0σ)	$-922	$-33,398	+$2,055	-$928
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (11.6σ)	$-29,010	$-30,139	+$5,313	-$6,715

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $610.48, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,452

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,832

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $292.50): -$31,258

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,879 (+$5,574 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,715, the opportunity cost of earning $1,473/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $381.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,320, position total $-32,539 (+$2,913 vs today)

▸

100% normal

1 × $280

23 Oct

11d

-0.2%

51%hist 67%

100%hist 90%

$1,030

$2,809

+$1,336

$32,018

Sell 1 × $280 0.2% ITM over spot $280.44 23 Oct 2026 (11d, $10.95 mid)

= $1,030 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,809/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $280)

51%

Breach risk

49%

POP (stays ≤ $290.95)

67%

EV / mo

+$307

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$227

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 6 Nov 2026)

$345 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $11.35/sh now → $8.03 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$280	30 Oct 2026	12d left	+$2.64/sh	+$264 cycle +$1,294	67% surv 52%	-$34,158 NOT cap gain +$1,294
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$285	30 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.32/sh	+$32 cycle +$1,062	70% surv 59%	-$33,882 NOT cap gain +$1,571
Max even-money escape in the band	~$310	6 Nov 2026	20d left	+$0.68/sh	+$68 cycle +$1,098	86% surv 81%	-$31,057 NOT cap gain +$4,396
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$345	6 Nov 2026	20d left	-$5.09/sh	-$509 cycle +$521	90% surv 89%	-$27,727 NOT cap gain +$7,726
budget: banked $1,030 debit $509 (49% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$521 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $441/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,809/mo
vs 50% target ($1,344/mo)	+109%
vs normal income ($2,688/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,682/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $280 is $330 below CC-SS $610.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$32,018
… as % of IC ($12,800)	250.1%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	66.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.9 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-35,518

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.58/sh (~25% of the $10.30 collected) or spot ≥ $290.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $280)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $337.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $277.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $277-290.95	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $290.95	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$280.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,030	$-34,422	+$1,030	+$1,025
+2.5%	$287.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$330	$-34,391	+$1,062	+$325
+5%	$294.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-370	$-34,310	+$1,143	-$375
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (11.6σ)	$-29,770	$-30,899	+$4,553	-$7,475

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $610.48, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,452

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,832

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $280): -$32,018

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,639 (+$4,814 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-23,164 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,475, the opportunity cost of earning $2,809/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $381.10 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,080, position total $-33,299 (+$2,153 vs today)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (33 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.116 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$36,832 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-23,164

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$295	4d	16 Oct 2026	$2.00	1/1	$200	$1,500	$1,373	80%hist 82%	41%hist 42%	83%	+$410	-$31,348	244.9%	11.7mo	$-29,969 (vs do-nothing $-6,805)
$310	25d	6 Nov 2026	$11.80	1/1	$1,180	$1,416	$1,289	78%hist 82%	46%hist 42%	85%	+$924	-$28,868	225.5%	10.7mo	$-27,489 (vs do-nothing $-4,325)
$292.50	4d	16 Oct 2026	$2.50	1/1	$250	$1,875	$1,748	76%hist 82%	49%hist 42%	80%	+$452	-$31,548	246.5%	11.7mo	$-30,169 (vs do-nothing $-7,005)
$305	25d	6 Nov 2026	$13.40	1/1	$1,340	$1,608	$1,481	75%hist 82%	53%hist 45%	84%	+$992	-$29,208	228.2%	10.9mo	$-27,829 (vs do-nothing $-4,665)
$290	4d	16 Oct 2026	$3.30	1/1	$330	$2,475	$2,348	71%hist 82%	58%hist 45%	77%	+$635	-$31,718	247.8%	11.8mo	$-30,339 (vs do-nothing $-7,175)
$300	25d	6 Nov 2026	$14.50	1/1	$1,450	$1,740	$1,613	71%hist 82%	62%hist 57%	82%	+$976	-$29,598	231.2%	11.0mo	$-28,219 (vs do-nothing $-5,055)
$292.50	11d	23 Oct 2026	$5.40	1/1	$540	$1,473	$1,346	69%hist 64%	64%hist 57%	76%	+$270	-$31,258	244.2%	11.6mo	$-29,879 (vs do-nothing $-6,715)
$287.50	4d	16 Oct 2026	$3.80	1/1	$380	$2,850	$2,723	67%hist 64%	68%hist 57%	74%	+$495	-$31,918	249.4%	11.9mo	$-30,539 (vs do-nothing $-7,375)
$295	25d	6 Nov 2026	$14.80	1/1	$1,480	$1,776	$1,649	66%hist 64%	70%hist 69%	79%	+$837	-$30,068	234.9%	11.2mo	$-28,689 (vs do-nothing $-5,525)
$292.50	18d	30 Oct 2026	$8.20	1/1	$820	$1,367	$1,240	66%hist 64%	71%hist 69%	74%	+$250	-$30,978	242.0%	11.5mo	$-29,599 (vs do-nothing $-6,435)
$290	11d	23 Oct 2026	$6.20	1/1	$620	$1,691	$1,564	66%hist 64%	71%hist 69%	74%	+$284	-$31,428	245.5%	11.7mo	$-30,049 (vs do-nothing $-6,885)
$290	18d	30 Oct 2026	$9.10	1/1	$910	$1,517	$1,390	63%hist 64%	77%hist 69%	73%	+$261	-$31,138	243.3%	11.6mo	$-29,759 (vs do-nothing $-6,595)
$287.50	11d	23 Oct 2026	$7.10	1/1	$710	$1,936	$1,809	62%hist 64%	78%hist 69%	72%	+$299	-$31,588	246.8%	11.8mo	$-30,209 (vs do-nothing $-7,045)

Show 20 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$290	25d	6 Nov 2026	$18.20	1/1	$1,820	$2,184	$2,057	62%hist 64%	80%hist 79%	78%	+$1,039	-$30,228	236.2%	11.2mo	$-28,849 (vs do-nothing $-5,685)
$285	4d	16 Oct 2026	$4.60	1/1	$460	$3,450	$3,323	61%hist 64%	79%hist 69%	72%	+$471	-$32,088	250.7%	11.9mo	$-30,709 (vs do-nothing $-7,545)
$287.50	18d	30 Oct 2026	$9.90	1/1	$990	$1,650	$1,523	60%hist 64%	83%hist 79%	72%	+$241	-$31,308	244.6%	11.6mo	$-29,929 (vs do-nothing $-6,765)
$285	11d	23 Oct 2026	$8.10	1/1	$810	$2,209	$2,082	59%hist 67%	86%hist 79%	70%	+$313	-$31,738	248.0%	11.8mo	$-30,359 (vs do-nothing $-7,195)
$285	18d	30 Oct 2026	$10.60	1/1	$1,060	$1,767	$1,640	58%hist 67%	89%hist 79%	70%	+$190	-$31,488	246.0%	11.7mo	$-30,109 (vs do-nothing $-6,945)
$285	25d	6 Nov 2026	$20.00	1/1	$2,000	$2,400	$2,273	57%hist 67%	90%hist 90%	76%	+$1,018	-$30,548	238.7%	11.4mo	$-29,169 (vs do-nothing $-6,005)
$282.50	4d	16 Oct 2026	$5.60	1/1	$560	$4,200	$4,073	56%hist 67%	90%hist 90%	69%	+$476	-$32,238	251.9%	12.0mo	$-30,859 (vs do-nothing $-7,695)
$282.50	11d	23 Oct 2026	$9.10	1/1	$910	$2,482	$2,355	55%hist 67%	93%hist 90%	69%	+$298	-$31,888	249.1%	11.9mo	$-30,509 (vs do-nothing $-7,345)
$282.50	18d	30 Oct 2026	$11.90	1/1	$1,190	$1,983	$1,856	55%hist 67%	95%hist 90%	69%	+$226	-$31,608	246.9%	11.8mo	$-30,229 (vs do-nothing $-7,065)
$280	25d	6 Nov 2026	$22.80	1/1	$2,280	$2,736	$2,609	52%hist 67%	100%hist 90%	74%	+$1,083	-$30,768	240.4%	11.4mo	$-29,389 (vs do-nothing $-6,225)
$280	18d	30 Oct 2026	$13.00	1/1	$1,300	$2,167	$2,040	52%hist 67%	100%hist 90%	67%	+$213	-$31,748	248.0%	11.8mo	$-30,369 (vs do-nothing $-7,205)
$280	11d	23 Oct 2026	$10.30	1/1	$1,030	$2,809	$2,682	51%hist 67%	100%hist 90%	67%	+$307	-$32,018	250.1%	11.9mo	$-30,639 (vs do-nothing $-7,475)
$280	4d	16 Oct 2026	$6.70	1/1	$670	$5,025	$4,898	50%hist 67%	100%hist 90%	66%	+$430	-$32,378	253.0%	12.0mo	$-30,999 (vs do-nothing $-7,835)
$277.50	18d	30 Oct 2026	$14.40	1/1	$1,440	$2,400	$2,273	49%	100%hist 90%	66%	+$235	-$31,858	248.9%	11.9mo	$-30,479 (vs do-nothing $-7,315)
$277.50	11d	23 Oct 2026	$11.60	1/1	$1,160	$3,164	$3,037	47%	100%hist 90%	65%	+$312	-$32,138	251.1%	12.0mo	$-30,759 (vs do-nothing $-7,595)
$275	25d	6 Nov 2026	$24.90	1/1	$2,490	$2,988	$2,861	47%	100%hist 90%	72%	+$1,029	-$31,058	242.6%	11.6mo	$-29,679 (vs do-nothing $-6,515)
$275	18d	30 Oct 2026	$15.50	1/1	$1,550	$2,583	$2,456	46%	100%hist 90%	65%	+$193	-$31,998	250.0%	11.9mo	$-30,619 (vs do-nothing $-7,455)
$277.50	4d	16 Oct 2026	$7.90	1/1	$790	$5,925	$5,798	44%	100%hist 90%	64%	+$328	-$32,508	254.0%	12.1mo	$-31,129 (vs do-nothing $-7,965)
$275	11d	23 Oct 2026	$12.70	1/1	$1,270	$3,464	$3,337	44%	100%hist 90%	64%	+$232	-$32,278	252.2%	12.0mo	$-30,899 (vs do-nothing $-7,735)
$275	4d	16 Oct 2026	$9.50	1/1	$950	$7,125	$6,998	39%	100%hist 90%	62%	+$396	-$32,598	254.7%	12.1mo	$-31,219 (vs do-nothing $-8,055)

67 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$330	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$38	$-89	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$27	-$28,043	219.1%	10.4mo	$-26,664 (vs do-nothing $-3,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$327.50	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$38	$-89	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$22	-$28,293	221.0%	10.5mo	$-26,914 (vs do-nothing $-3,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$435	25d	6 Nov 2026	$0.20	1/1	$20	$24	$-103	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$11	-$17,528	136.9%	6.5mo	$-16,149 (vs do-nothing +$7,015)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$325	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.10	1/1	$10	$75	$-52	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$51	-$28,538	223.0%	10.6mo	$-27,159 (vs do-nothing $-3,995)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$425	25d	6 Nov 2026	$0.35	1/1	$35	$42	$-85	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$21	-$18,513	144.6%	6.9mo	$-17,134 (vs do-nothing +$6,030)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$345	11d	23 Oct 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$14	$-113	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	$-5	-$26,543	207.4%	9.9mo	$-25,164 (vs do-nothing $-2,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$365	18d	30 Oct 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$8	$-119	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	$-9	-$24,543	191.7%	9.1mo	$-23,164 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$420	25d	6 Nov 2026	$0.45	1/1	$45	$54	$-73	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$28	-$19,003	148.5%	7.1mo	$-17,624 (vs do-nothing +$5,540)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$415	25d	6 Nov 2026	$0.50	1/1	$50	$60	$-67	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$27	-$19,498	152.3%	7.3mo	$-18,119 (vs do-nothing +$5,045)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$360	18d	30 Oct 2026	$0.35	1/1	$35	$58	$-69	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$34	-$25,013	195.4%	9.3mo	$-23,634 (vs do-nothing $-470)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$320	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.25	1/1	$25	$188	$61	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$137	-$29,023	226.7%	10.8mo	$-27,644 (vs do-nothing $-4,480)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$410	25d	6 Nov 2026	$0.55	1/1	$55	$66	$-61	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$26	-$19,993	156.2%	7.4mo	$-18,614 (vs do-nothing +$4,550)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$355	18d	30 Oct 2026	$0.30	1/1	$30	$50	$-77	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$17	-$25,518	199.4%	9.5mo	$-24,139 (vs do-nothing $-975)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$405	25d	6 Nov 2026	$0.70	1/1	$70	$84	$-43	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$35	-$20,478	160.0%	7.6mo	$-19,099 (vs do-nothing +$4,065)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$317.50	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.25	1/1	$25	$188	$61	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$115	-$29,273	228.7%	10.9mo	$-27,894 (vs do-nothing $-4,730)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$335	11d	23 Oct 2026	$0.40	1/1	$40	$109	$-18	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$64	-$27,508	214.9%	10.2mo	$-26,129 (vs do-nothing $-2,965)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$400	25d	6 Nov 2026	$1.20	1/1	$120	$144	$17	96%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$85	-$20,928	163.5%	7.8mo	$-19,549 (vs do-nothing +$3,615)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$350	18d	30 Oct 2026	$0.55	1/1	$55	$92	$-35	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$48	-$25,993	203.1%	9.7mo	$-24,614 (vs do-nothing $-1,450)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$315	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.30	1/1	$30	$225	$98	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$124	-$29,518	230.6%	11.0mo	$-28,139 (vs do-nothing $-4,975)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$395	25d	6 Nov 2026	$1.50	1/1	$150	$180	$53	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$109	-$21,398	167.2%	8.0mo	$-20,019 (vs do-nothing +$3,145)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$330	11d	23 Oct 2026	$0.60	1/1	$60	$164	$37	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$94	-$27,988	218.7%	10.4mo	$-26,609 (vs do-nothing $-3,445)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$345	18d	30 Oct 2026	$0.85	1/1	$85	$142	$15	95%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$82	-$26,463	206.7%	9.8mo	$-25,084 (vs do-nothing $-1,920)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$390	25d	6 Nov 2026	$1.25	1/1	$125	$150	$23	95%hist 95%	10%hist 4%	96%	+$65	-$21,923	171.3%	8.2mo	$-20,544 (vs do-nothing +$2,620)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$312.50	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.25	1/1	$25	$188	$61	95%hist 95%	10%hist 14%	95%	+$48	-$29,773	232.6%	11.1mo	$-28,394 (vs do-nothing $-5,230)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$385	25d	6 Nov 2026	$1.80	1/1	$180	$216	$89	95%hist 95%	11%hist 14%	95%	+$116	-$22,368	174.8%	8.3mo	$-20,989 (vs do-nothing +$2,175)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$340	18d	30 Oct 2026	$0.90	1/1	$90	$150	$23	94%hist 95%	12%hist 14%	95%	+$69	-$26,958	210.6%	10.0mo	$-25,579 (vs do-nothing $-2,415)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$380	25d	6 Nov 2026	$1.80	1/1	$180	$216	$89	94%hist 95%	12%hist 14%	95%	+$97	-$22,868	178.7%	8.5mo	$-21,489 (vs do-nothing +$1,675)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$325	11d	23 Oct 2026	$0.80	1/1	$80	$218	$91	94%hist 95%	12%hist 14%	94%	+$112	-$28,468	222.4%	10.6mo	$-27,089 (vs do-nothing $-3,925)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$310	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.50	1/1	$50	$375	$248	94%hist 95%	13%hist 14%	94%	+$183	-$29,998	234.4%	11.2mo	$-28,619 (vs do-nothing $-5,455)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$375	25d	6 Nov 2026	$2.45	1/1	$245	$294	$167	93%hist 95%	14%hist 14%	94%	+$153	-$23,303	182.1%	8.7mo	$-21,924 (vs do-nothing +$1,240)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$335	18d	30 Oct 2026	$1.25	1/1	$125	$208	$81	93%hist 95%	14%hist 14%	93%	+$100	-$27,423	214.2%	10.2mo	$-26,044 (vs do-nothing $-2,880)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$370	25d	6 Nov 2026	$2.40	1/1	$240	$288	$161	93%hist 95%	16%hist 14%	93%	+$122	-$23,808	186.0%	8.9mo	$-22,429 (vs do-nothing +$735)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$307.50	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.55	1/1	$55	$412	$286	92%hist 95%	16%hist 14%	93%	+$152	-$30,243	236.3%	11.3mo	$-28,864 (vs do-nothing $-5,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$320	11d	23 Oct 2026	$1.15	1/1	$115	$314	$187	92%hist 95%	16%hist 14%	93%	+$153	-$28,933	226.0%	10.8mo	$-27,554 (vs do-nothing $-4,390)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$365	25d	6 Nov 2026	$2.30	1/1	$230	$276	$149	92%hist 95%	18%hist 14%	92%	+$81	-$24,318	190.0%	9.0mo	$-22,939 (vs do-nothing +$225)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$330	18d	30 Oct 2026	$1.60	1/1	$160	$267	$140	91%hist 95%	18%hist 14%	92%	+$121	-$27,888	217.9%	10.4mo	$-26,509 (vs do-nothing $-3,345)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$360	25d	6 Nov 2026	$2.80	1/1	$280	$336	$209	91%hist 95%	20%hist 14%	91%	+$108	-$24,768	193.5%	9.2mo	$-23,389 (vs do-nothing $-225)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$305	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.75	1/1	$75	$562	$436	91%hist 95%	19%hist 14%	91%	+$212	-$30,473	238.1%	11.3mo	$-29,094 (vs do-nothing $-5,930)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$355	25d	6 Nov 2026	$3.20	1/1	$320	$384	$257	89%hist 86%	22%hist 24%	91%	+$117	-$25,228	197.1%	9.4mo	$-23,849 (vs do-nothing $-685)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$325	18d	30 Oct 2026	$2.00	1/1	$200	$333	$206	89%hist 86%	22%hist 24%	90%	+$138	-$28,348	221.5%	10.5mo	$-26,969 (vs do-nothing $-3,805)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$315	11d	23 Oct 2026	$1.40	1/1	$140	$382	$255	89%hist 86%	22%hist 24%	90%	+$143	-$29,408	229.8%	10.9mo	$-28,029 (vs do-nothing $-4,865)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.50	4d	16 Oct 2026	$0.85	1/1	$85	$638	$511	88%hist 86%	23%hist 24%	90%	+$168	-$30,713	239.9%	11.4mo	$-29,334 (vs do-nothing $-6,170)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$350	25d	6 Nov 2026	$4.30	1/1	$430	$516	$389	88%hist 86%	25%hist 24%	90%	+$203	-$25,618	200.1%	9.5mo	$-24,239 (vs do-nothing $-1,075)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$312.50	11d	23 Oct 2026	$1.70	1/1	$170	$464	$337	88%hist 86%	25%hist 24%	89%	+$173	-$29,628	231.5%	11.0mo	$-28,249 (vs do-nothing $-5,085)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$320	18d	30 Oct 2026	$2.40	1/1	$240	$400	$273	87%hist 86%	27%hist 24%	88%	+$139	-$28,808	225.1%	10.7mo	$-27,429 (vs do-nothing $-4,265)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$345	25d	6 Nov 2026	$4.40	1/1	$440	$528	$401	87%hist 86%	28%hist 24%	88%	+$162	-$26,108	204.0%	9.7mo	$-24,729 (vs do-nothing $-1,565)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$310	11d	23 Oct 2026	$2.05	1/1	$205	$559	$432	86%hist 86%	28%hist 24%	88%	+$207	-$29,843	233.2%	11.1mo	$-28,464 (vs do-nothing $-5,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$300	4d	16 Oct 2026	$1.40	1/1	$140	$1,050	$923	86%hist 86%	29%hist 24%	88%	+$425	-$30,908	241.5%	11.5mo	$-29,529 (vs do-nothing $-6,365)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$340	25d	6 Nov 2026	$5.40	1/1	$540	$648	$521	85%hist 86%	31%hist 32%	87%	+$221	-$26,508	207.1%	9.9mo	$-25,129 (vs do-nothing $-1,965)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$315	18d	30 Oct 2026	$3.10	1/1	$310	$517	$390	84%hist 86%	32%hist 32%	86%	+$171	-$29,238	228.4%	10.9mo	$-27,859 (vs do-nothing $-4,695)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$307.50	11d	23 Oct 2026	$2.30	1/1	$230	$627	$500	84%hist 86%	32%hist 32%	86%	+$202	-$30,068	234.9%	11.2mo	$-28,689 (vs do-nothing $-5,525)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$335	25d	6 Nov 2026	$5.60	1/1	$560	$672	$545	84%hist 86%	35%hist 32%	86%	+$175	-$26,988	210.8%	10.0mo	$-25,609 (vs do-nothing $-2,445)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.50	4d	16 Oct 2026	$1.65	1/1	$165	$1,238	$1,111	83%hist 86%	35%hist 32%	85%	+$409	-$31,133	243.2%	11.6mo	$-29,754 (vs do-nothing $-6,590)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$305	11d	23 Oct 2026	$2.65	1/1	$265	$723	$596	82%hist 86%	37%hist 32%	85%	+$211	-$30,283	236.6%	11.3mo	$-28,904 (vs do-nothing $-5,740)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$330	25d	6 Nov 2026	$6.40	1/1	$640	$768	$641	82%hist 86%	39%hist 32%	85%	+$189	-$27,408	214.1%	10.2mo	$-26,029 (vs do-nothing $-2,865)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$310	18d	30 Oct 2026	$3.90	1/1	$390	$650	$523	81%hist 86%	39%hist 32%	84%	+$195	-$29,658	231.7%	11.0mo	$-28,279 (vs do-nothing $-5,115)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.50	11d	23 Oct 2026	$3.10	1/1	$310	$845	$719	80%hist 82%	41%hist 42%	83%	+$233	-$30,488	238.2%	11.3mo	$-29,109 (vs do-nothing $-5,945)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$325	25d	6 Nov 2026	$7.50	1/1	$750	$900	$773	80%hist 82%	43%hist 42%	83%	+$227	-$27,798	217.2%	10.3mo	$-26,419 (vs do-nothing $-3,255)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$320	25d	6 Nov 2026	$9.20	1/1	$920	$1,104	$977	77%hist 82%	48%hist 42%	82%	+$323	-$28,128	219.8%	10.5mo	$-26,749 (vs do-nothing $-3,585)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$300	11d	23 Oct 2026	$3.60	1/1	$360	$982	$855	77%hist 82%	46%hist 42%	81%	+$252	-$30,688	239.8%	11.4mo	$-29,309 (vs do-nothing $-6,145)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$305	18d	30 Oct 2026	$4.80	1/1	$480	$800	$673	77%hist 82%	47%hist 42%	82%	+$205	-$30,068	234.9%	11.2mo	$-28,689 (vs do-nothing $-5,525)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$315	25d	6 Nov 2026	$9.70	1/1	$970	$1,164	$1,037	75%hist 82%	53%hist 45%	80%	+$259	-$28,578	223.3%	10.6mo	$-27,199 (vs do-nothing $-4,035)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.50	11d	23 Oct 2026	$4.10	1/1	$410	$1,118	$991	75%hist 82%	52%hist 45%	80%	+$252	-$30,888	241.3%	11.5mo	$-29,509 (vs do-nothing $-6,345)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$300	18d	30 Oct 2026	$6.00	1/1	$600	$1,000	$873	73%hist 82%	56%hist 45%	79%	+$229	-$30,448	237.9%	11.3mo	$-29,069 (vs do-nothing $-5,905)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$295	11d	23 Oct 2026	$4.60	1/1	$460	$1,255	$1,128	72%hist 82%	58%hist 45%	78%	+$232	-$31,088	242.9%	11.6mo	$-29,709 (vs do-nothing $-6,545)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.50	18d	30 Oct 2026	$6.70	1/1	$670	$1,117	$990	71%hist 82%	61%hist 57%	77%	+$242	-$30,628	239.3%	11.4mo	$-29,249 (vs do-nothing $-6,085)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$295	18d	30 Oct 2026	$7.40	1/1	$740	$1,233	$1,106	68%hist 64%	66%hist 57%	76%	+$244	-$30,808	240.7%	11.5mo	$-29,429 (vs do-nothing $-6,265)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-12 21:48