FORTRESS FIGHT: APP @ $258.90

BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $612.20 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

APP @ $258.90 UNDERWATER $329.10 (56.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

APP reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-04.

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $612.20 (banked floor $575.85) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $460 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $287.732/sh)

SP: $540 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $160.484/sh)

HP: $185 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.372/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,300	(ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100
Normal income ref	$3,862/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$197/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-37,575	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,931/mo

HEDGE COVER
$197/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$3,862/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $12,800

ML VELOCITY
12.5 mo to earn back $48,300

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $612.20 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $415C (16d, $38/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$3,885

Hole (after banked)

$33,690

was $37,575 · 10% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$612.20 → $575.85

? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Full leg history (16) and event log · CLOSED 8 · UNKNOWN 4 · EXPIRED 4 · updated 2026-10-29 03:10

Status	Leg	Credit/sh	Credit	Opened	Closed	Close/sh	Banked	Account	Source
CLOSED	1x $270C 30 Oct 2026	$4.95	$495	2026-10-23	2026-10-28	$1.54	$341	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $290C 23 Oct 2026	$1.68	$168	2026-10-21	2026-10-22	$0.09	$159	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $290C 23 Oct 2026	$4.80	$480	2026-10-13	2026-10-19	$0.90	$390	U18827291	execution
EXPIRED	1x $300C 9 Oct 2026	$1.91	$191	2026-10-06	2026-10-12	$0.00	$191	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $295C 9 Oct 2026	$3.00	$300	2026-10-05	2026-10-06	$3.69	$-69	U18827291	snapshot
EXPIRED	1x $335C 2 Oct 2026	$2.75	$275	2026-09-28	2026-10-05	$0.00	$275	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $370C 2 Oct 2026	$1.70	$170	2026-09-22	2026-09-28	$1.70	$0	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $330C 25 Sep 2026	$3.20	$320	2026-09-21	2026-09-22	$3.20	$0	U18827291	snapshot
EXPIRED	1x $332.5C 11 Sep 2026	$2.50	$250	2026-09-08	2026-09-14	$0.00	$250	U18827291	snapshot
EXPIRED	1x $360C 4 Sep 2026	$2.37	$237	2026-08-19	2026-09-08	$0.00	$237	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $320C 21 Aug 2026	$3.56	$356	2026-08-18	2026-08-19	$3.56	$0	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $435C 31 Jul 2026	$6.92	$692	2026-07-23	2026-07-30	$1.40	$552	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $465C 31 Jul 2026	$10.80	$1,080	2026-07-22	2026-07-23	$2.08	$872	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $480C 24 Jul 2026	$6.90	$690	2026-07-17	2026-07-22	$6.90	$0	U18827291	snapshot
CLOSED	1x $490C 17 Jul 2026	$3.00	$300	2026-07-15	2026-07-16	$0.28	$272	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $600C 17 Jul 2026	$4.35	$435	2026-07-02	2026-07-13	$0.20	$415	U18827291	seed

Event log

2026-10-28 CLOSED 1x $270C 20261030: banked $341

2026-10-23 SOLD 1x $270C 20261030 @ $4.95 (new leg)

2026-10-22 CLOSED 1x $290C 20261023: banked $159

2026-10-21 SOLD 1x $290C 20261023 @ $1.68 (new leg)

2026-10-19 CLOSED 1x $290C 20261023: banked $390

2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $290C 20261023 @ $4.80 (new leg)

2026-10-12 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $300C: banked $191

2026-10-06 BOT 1x $355C 20261023 @ $0.72 with no tracked leg (ignored)

2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $300C 20261009 @ $1.91 (new leg)

2026-10-06 CLOSED 1x $295C 20261009: banked $-69

2026-10-06 SLD 1x $355C 20261023 @ $0.86 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)

2026-10-05 TRACKING 1x $295C 20261009 @ $3.00 (snapshot)

2026-10-05 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $335C: banked $275

2026-09-28 TRACKING 1x $335C 20261002 @ $2.75 (snapshot)

2026-09-28 ? 1x $370C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-22 TRACKING 1x $370C 20261002 @ $1.70 (snapshot)

2026-09-22 ? 1x $330C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-21 TRACKING 1x $330C 20260925 @ $3.20 (snapshot)

2026-09-14 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $332.5C: banked $250

2026-09-08 TRACKING 1x $332.5C 20260911 @ $2.50 (snapshot)

2026-09-08 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $360C: banked $237

2026-08-19 TRACKING 1x $360C 20260904 @ $2.37 (snapshot)

2026-08-19 ? 1x $320C 20260821 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-08-18 SOLD 1x $320C 20260821 @ $3.56 (new leg)

2026-07-30 CLOSED 1x $435C 20260731: banked $552

2026-07-23 CLOSED 1x $465C 20260731: banked $872

2026-07-23 SOLD 1x $435C 20260731 @ $6.92 (new leg)

2026-07-22 TRACKING 1x $465C 20260731 @ $10.80 (snapshot)

2026-07-22 ? 1x $480C 20260724 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-07-17 TRACKING 1x $480C 20260724 @ $6.90 (snapshot)

2026-07-16 CLOSED 1x $490C 20260717: banked $272

2026-07-15 SOLD 1x $490C 20260717 @ $3.00 (new leg)

2026-07-13 CLOSED 1x $600C 20260717: banked $415

2026-07-02 TRACKING 1x $600C 20260717 @ $4.35 (seed)

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 22 (live) · RSI 33 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 37 · %B 15 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $353.66 (+37%) · daily UBB $285.08 · 1-wk expected move ±$33 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 1 contract at $267.50 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 76%, breach 24%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,931/mo); it brings $2,325/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $262.50/2d for $4,275/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $280/2d (95% survival, $375/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $34,315 (268% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $588, recoverable in 8.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-37,600 and cuts bleed by $197/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 (2d) · sell 1 × $267.50, 76% survival, $2,325/mo (E[net] $1,628/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	30 Oct 2026 · 2d	1 × $267.50	76%	$2,325	$1,628
NEXT FRIDAY ⚡	6 Nov 2026 · 9d	1 × $300	81%	$2,100	$-152

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $155 with probability 70%; on the 30% touch you roll, paying $393 to close and taking $1,509 back from the best priced door (net cash $0) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 · 2d · E[net] $1,628/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $267.50 (50% normal), 76% survival, breach 24%, $2,325/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $270 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 24% → 18%) for $600/mo less (26% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $270 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect APP to stay flat-to-down near term.

APP spot $258.90 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $280

30 Oct

8.1%

95%hist 95%

10%hist 13%

+1pp

$25

$375

-$1,950

$33,195

Sell 1 × $280 8.1% OTM over spot $258.90 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.30 mid)

= $25 credit for the 2d cycle → $375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $280)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $280.30)

95%

EV / mo

+$189

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

13% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$127/mo

median; plan ~$86/mo after 68% keep · $1,092 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.1 mo, measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$387

Free roll-up

+$51/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$351 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.82/sh now → $4.12 mid-life (likely $4.28–$8.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 123 simulated challenges: the $280 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $285 (overshoots $4.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$280	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$15.48/sh	+$1,548 cycle +$1,573 [+$1,386…+$1,524] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	-$33,791 NOT cap gain +$3,784
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$336	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$1.95/sh	+$195 cycle +$220 [-$137…+$180] · 64% credit	86% surv 84%	-$29,264 NOT cap gain +$8,311
Max even-money escape in the band	~$351	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.00/sh	+$0 cycle +$25 [-$362…-$17] · 15% credit	90% surv 89%	-$27,887 NOT cap gain +$9,688
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$331	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$11 cycle +$36 [-$369…-$33] · 13% credit	87% surv 85%	-$29,972 NOT cap gain +$7,603

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$375/mo
vs 50% target ($1,931/mo)	-81%
vs normal income ($3,862/mo)	10% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$178/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $280 is $332 below CC-SS $612.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$33,195
… as % of IC ($12,800)	259.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	68.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.6 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,580

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $280.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $280)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $277.20	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $277-280.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $280.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$280.00 (1.2σ)	$25	$-35,339	+$2,236	+$5
+2.5%	$287.00 (1.6σ)	$-675	$-35,305	+$2,270	-$695
+5%	$294.00 (2.0σ)	$-1,375	$-35,272	+$2,303	-$1,395
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (18.3σ)	$-30,775	$-33,860	+$3,715	-$13,495

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,575

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,026

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $280): -$33,195

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,744 (+$3,831 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,495, the opportunity cost of earning $375/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,341, position total $-34,985 (+$2,590 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

1 × $275

30 Oct

6.2%

90%hist 95%

20%hist 23%

+4pp

$55

$825

-$1,500

$33,665

Sell 1 × $275 6.2% OTM over spot $258.90 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.70 mid)

= $55 credit for the 2d cycle → $825/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $275)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $275.70)

91%

EV / mo

+$332

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

11% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$413/mo

median; plan ~$281/mo after 68% keep · $3,453 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo, measured ONLY among the 11% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$349

Free roll-up

+$51/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$346 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.72/sh now → $4.04 mid-life (likely $4.25–$7.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $275 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $279 (overshoots $4.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$275	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$15.33/sh	+$1,533 cycle +$1,588 [+$1,381…+$1,514] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	-$34,300 NOT cap gain +$3,275
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$331	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$1.91/sh	+$191 cycle +$246 [-$101…+$177] · 64% credit	86% surv 84%	-$29,762 NOT cap gain +$7,813
Max even-money escape in the band	~$336	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$1.20/sh	+$120 cycle +$175 [-$182…+$105] · 53% credit	88% surv 86%	-$29,309 NOT cap gain +$8,266
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$346	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.01/sh	-$1 cycle +$54 [-$320…-$18] · 18% credit	90% surv 89%	-$28,383 NOT cap gain +$9,192
budget: banked $55 debit $1 (2% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $550/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$326	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.07/sh	+$7 cycle +$62 [-$337…-$30] · 12% credit	87% surv 86%	-$30,471 NOT cap gain +$7,104

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$825/mo
vs 50% target ($1,931/mo)	-57%
vs normal income ($3,862/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$628/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $275 is $337 below CC-SS $612.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$33,665
… as % of IC ($12,800)	263.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	69.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,590

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $275.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $275)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $272.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $272-275.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $275.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$275.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$55	$-35,833	+$1,742	+$35
+2.5%	$281.88 (1.3σ)	$-632	$-35,800	+$1,775	-$652
+5%	$288.75 (1.7σ)	$-1,320	$-35,767	+$1,808	-$1,340
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (18.3σ)	$-31,245	$-34,330	+$3,245	-$13,965

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,575

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,026

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $275): -$33,665

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,214 (+$3,361 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,965, the opportunity cost of earning $825/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,811, position total $-35,455 (+$2,120 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

1 × $270

30 Oct

4.3%

82%hist 86%

37%hist 30%

+4pp

$115

$1,725

-$600

$34,105

Sell 1 × $270 4.3% OTM over spot $258.90 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $1.35 mid)

= $115 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,725/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $270)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $271.35)

85%

EV / mo

+$520

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

12% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~9.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$829/mo

median; plan ~$564/mo after 68% keep · $7,242 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$282

Free roll-up

+$51/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$341 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.62/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $4.48–$8.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 617 simulated challenges: the $270 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $275 (overshoots $4.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$270	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$15.17/sh	+$1,517 cycle +$1,632 [+$1,356…+$1,497] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	-$34,780 NOT cap gain +$2,795
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$321	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$2.67/sh	+$267 cycle +$382 [-$91…+$231] · 68% credit	85% surv 83%	-$30,675 NOT cap gain +$6,900
Max even-money escape in the band	~$331	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$1.17/sh	+$117 cycle +$232 [-$266…+$77] · 44% credit	88% surv 86%	-$29,777 NOT cap gain +$7,798
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$341	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.03/sh	-$3 cycle +$112 [-$407…-$46] · 12% credit	90% surv 89%	-$28,849 NOT cap gain +$8,726
budget: banked $115 debit $3 (3% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$112 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $537/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$321	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.02/sh	+$2 cycle +$117 [-$395…-$54] · 9% credit	87% surv 86%	-$30,939 NOT cap gain +$6,636

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,725/mo
vs 50% target ($1,931/mo)	-11%
vs normal income ($3,862/mo)	45% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,528/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $270 is $342 below CC-SS $612.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$34,105
… as % of IC ($12,800)	266.4%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	70.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.8 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,595

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $271.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $270)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $267.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $267-271.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $271.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$270.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$115	$-36,297	+$1,278	+$95
+2.5%	$276.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-560	$-36,264	+$1,311	-$580
+5%	$283.50 (1.4σ)	$-1,235	$-36,232	+$1,343	-$1,255
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (18.3σ)	$-31,685	$-34,770	+$2,805	-$14,405

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,575

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,026

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $270): -$34,105

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,654 (+$2,921 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,405, the opportunity cost of earning $1,725/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,251, position total $-35,895 (+$1,680 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

1 × $267.50

30 Oct

3.3%

76%hist 83%

48%hist 40%

+7pp

$155

$2,325

—

$34,315

Sell 1 × $267.50 3.3% OTM over spot $258.90 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $1.80 mid)

= $155 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,325/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $267.50)

76%

Breach risk

24%

POP (stays ≤ $269.30)

81%

EV / mo

+$500

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

14% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~12.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,033/mo

median; plan ~$702/mo after 68% keep · $8,782 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.5 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$238

Free roll-up

+$49/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$339 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.56/sh now → $3.93 mid-life (likely $4.60–$8.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 899 simulated challenges: the $268 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $272 (overshoots $4.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$268	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$15.09/sh	+$1,509 cycle +$1,664 [+$1,342…+$1,488] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	-$35,010 NOT cap gain +$2,565
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$319	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$2.64/sh	+$264 cycle +$419 [-$102…+$215] · 64% credit	85% surv 83%	-$30,900 NOT cap gain +$6,675
Max even-money escape in the band	~$329	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$1.15/sh	+$115 cycle +$270 [-$276…+$61] · 39% credit	88% surv 86%	-$30,001 NOT cap gain +$7,574
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$316	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.46/sh	+$46 cycle +$201 [-$353…-$20] · 19% credit	87% surv 85%	-$31,379 NOT cap gain +$6,196
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$339	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.04/sh	-$4 cycle +$151 [-$418…-$62] · 9% credit	90% surv 89%	-$29,072 NOT cap gain +$8,503
budget: banked $155 debit $4 (3% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$151 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $531/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,325/mo
vs 50% target ($1,931/mo)	+20%
vs normal income ($3,862/mo)	60% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,128/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $267.50 is $345 below CC-SS $612.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$34,315
… as % of IC ($12,800)	268.1%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	71.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.9 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,600

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.55 collected) or spot ≥ $269.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $268)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $264.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $265-269.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $269.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$267.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$155	$-36,519	+$1,056	+$135
+2.5%	$274.19 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-514	$-36,487	+$1,088	-$534
+5%	$280.88 (1.2σ)	$-1,182	$-36,455	+$1,120	-$1,202
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (18.3σ)	$-31,895	$-34,980	+$2,595	-$14,615

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,575

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,026

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $267.50): -$34,315

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,864 (+$2,711 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,615, the opportunity cost of earning $2,325/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,461, position total $-36,105 (+$1,470 vs today)

▸

100% normal

1 × $262.50

30 Oct

1.4%

63%hist 66%

76%hist 68%

+10pp

$285

$4,275

+$1,950

$34,685

Sell 1 × $262.50 1.4% OTM over spot $258.90 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $3.28 mid)

= $285 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,275/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $262.50)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $265.77)

72%

EV / mo

+$415

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

16% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~20.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,434/mo

median; plan ~$975/mo after 68% keep · $12,370 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.0 mo [4.2-7.7], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

48%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$101

Free roll-up

+$49/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$334 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.46/sh now → $3.86 mid-life (likely $4.81–$10.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,427 simulated challenges: the $262 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $268 (overshoots $5.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$262	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$14.93/sh	+$1,493 cycle +$1,778 [+$1,281…+$1,468] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	-$35,420 NOT cap gain +$2,155
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$304	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$4.55/sh	+$455 cycle +$740 [+$23…+$397] · 77% credit	82% surv 79%	-$32,150 NOT cap gain +$5,425
Max even-money escape in the band	~$324	20 Nov 2026	22d left	+$1.10/sh	+$110 cycle +$395 [-$396…+$38] · 32% credit	88% surv 86%	-$30,399 NOT cap gain +$7,176
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$311	6 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.41/sh	+$41 cycle +$326 [-$463…-$41] · 15% credit	87% surv 85%	-$31,779 NOT cap gain +$5,796
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$334	20 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.07/sh	-$7 cycle +$278 [-$542…-$85] · 6% credit	90% surv 89%	-$29,468 NOT cap gain +$8,107
budget: banked $285 debit $7 (2% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$278 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $517/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,275/mo
vs 50% target ($1,931/mo)	+121%
vs normal income ($3,862/mo)	111% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,078/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $262.50 is $350 below CC-SS $612.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$34,685
… as % of IC ($12,800)	271.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	71.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	9.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,618

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.85 collected) or spot ≥ $265.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $262)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $259.88	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $260-265.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $265.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$262.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$285	$-36,913	+$662	+$265
+2.5%	$269.06 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-371	$-36,881	+$694	-$391
+5%	$275.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,028	$-36,850	+$725	-$1,048
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (18.3σ)	$-32,265	$-35,350	+$2,225	-$14,985

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,575

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,026

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $262.50): -$34,685

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,234 (+$2,341 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,985, the opportunity cost of earning $4,275/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,831, position total $-36,475 (+$1,100 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on APP are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 9d · E[net] $-152/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $300 (50% normal), 81% survival, breach 19%, $2,100/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $312.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 19% → 14%) for $767/mo less (37% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

APP spot $258.90 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $360

6 Nov

39.0%

97%hist 95%

6%hist 4%

+1pp

$60

$200

-$1,900

$25,160

Sell 1 × $360 39.0% OTM over spot $258.90 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.80 mid)

= $60 credit for the 9d cycle → $200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $360)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $360.80)

97%

EV / mo

+$101

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

28% whole by 9mo vs 27% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-46/mo

median; plan ~$-31/mo after 68% keep · $-366 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.2-5.2], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,989

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$371 @ 72% POP

61% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $28.96/sh now → $20.49 mid-life (likely $15.13–$24.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 150 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $372 (overshoots $12.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$360	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$21 cycle +$81 [+$128…+$677] · 84% credit	67% surv 53%	-$26,898 NOT cap gain +$10,677
Max even-money escape in the band	~$364	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.63/sh	+$63 cycle +$123 [+$148…+$796] · 83% credit	69% surv 56%	-$26,479 NOT cap gain +$11,096
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$366	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.09/sh	-$9 cycle +$51 [+$65…+$711] · 81% credit	70% surv 57%	-$26,290 NOT cap gain +$11,285
budget: banked $60 debit $9 (15% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,400/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$371	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$2.06/sh	-$206 cycle -$146 [-$162…+$483] · 67% credit	72% surv 61%	-$25,962 NOT cap gain +$11,613

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$200/mo
vs 50% target ($1,931/mo)	-90%
vs normal income ($3,862/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $360 is $252 below CC-SS $612.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,160
… as % of IC ($12,800)	196.6%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	52.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,595

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $360.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $356.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $356-360.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $360.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$360.00 (2.7σ)	$60	$-26,920	+$10,655	+$40
+2.5%	$369.00 (2.9σ)	$-840	$-26,877	+$10,698	-$860
+5%	$378.00 (3.1σ)	$-1,740	$-26,833	+$10,742	-$1,760
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (8.7σ)	$-22,740	$-25,825	+$11,750	-$5,460

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,575

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,026

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $360): -$25,160

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,709 (+$11,866 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,460, the opportunity cost of earning $200/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-27,644 (+$9,931 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

1 × $325

6 Nov

25.5%

90%hist 95%

20%hist 13%

+4pp

$265

$883

-$1,217

$28,455

Sell 1 × $325 25.5% OTM over spot $258.90 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $2.92 mid)

= $265 credit for the 9d cycle → $883/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $325)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $327.93)

91%

EV / mo

+$360

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

32% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$326/mo

median; plan ~$221/mo after 68% keep · $2,284 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.6-5.5], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,585

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$339 @ 73% POP

63% survival

Buyback gross: $26.14/sh now → $18.50 mid-life (likely $16.18–$27.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$15.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 435 simulated challenges: the $325 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $337 (overshoots $11.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$325	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$1.41/sh	+$141 cycle +$406 [+$31…+$520] · 78% credit	67% surv 53%	-$30,241 NOT cap gain +$7,334
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$331	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$1.24/sh	+$124 cycle +$389 [-$64…+$556] · 69% credit	70% surv 58%	-$29,620 NOT cap gain +$7,955
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$329	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.01/sh	+$1 cycle +$266 [-$148…+$363] · 55% credit	69% surv 56%	-$30,005 NOT cap gain +$7,570
Max even-money escape in the band	~$334	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.21/sh	+$21 cycle +$286 [-$180…+$443] · 55% credit	71% surv 59%	-$29,460 NOT cap gain +$8,115
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$339	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$1.83/sh	-$183 cycle +$82 [-$418…+$185] · 37% credit	73% surv 63%	-$29,140 NOT cap gain +$8,435
budget: banked $265 debit $183 (69% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$82 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,779/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$883/mo
vs 50% target ($1,931/mo)	-54%
vs normal income ($3,862/mo)	23% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$686/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $325 is $287 below CC-SS $612.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,455
… as % of IC ($12,800)	222.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	58.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,602

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.65 collected) or spot ≥ $327.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $325)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $321.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $322-327.93	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $327.93	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$325.00 (1.7σ)	$265	$-30,383	+$7,192	+$245
+2.5%	$333.12 (2.0σ)	$-547	$-30,344	+$7,231	-$567
+5%	$341.25 (2.2σ)	$-1,360	$-30,305	+$7,270	-$1,380
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (8.7σ)	$-26,035	$-29,120	+$8,455	-$8,755

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,575

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,026

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $325): -$28,455

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,004 (+$8,571 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,755, the opportunity cost of earning $883/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,601, position total $-30,245 (+$7,330 vs today)

▸

33% normal

1 × $312.50

6 Nov

20.7%

86%hist 86%

29%hist 23%

+5pp

$400

$1,333

-$767

$29,570

Sell 1 × $312.50 20.7% OTM over spot $258.90 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $4.40 mid)

= $400 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,333/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $312.50)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $316.90)

88%

EV / mo

+$426

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

29% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$475/mo

median; plan ~$323/mo after 68% keep · $3,546 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [2.7-6.4], measured ONLY among the 29% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

20%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,379

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$331 @ 75% POP

66% survival

Buyback gross: $25.14/sh now → $17.79 mid-life (likely $17.03–$27.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 607 simulated challenges: the $312 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $325 (overshoots $12.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$312	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$1.78/sh	+$178 cycle +$578 [+$3…+$491] · 76% credit	67% surv 53%	-$31,380 NOT cap gain +$6,195
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$319	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$1.63/sh	+$163 cycle +$563 [-$85…+$501] · 65% credit	70% surv 58%	-$30,755 NOT cap gain +$6,820
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$316	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.37/sh	+$37 cycle +$437 [-$161…+$319] · 51% credit	69% surv 56%	-$31,144 NOT cap gain +$6,431
Max even-money escape in the band	~$321	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.61/sh	+$61 cycle +$461 [-$208…+$373] · 50% credit	71% surv 60%	-$30,595 NOT cap gain +$6,980
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$331	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$3.44/sh	-$344 cycle +$56 [-$706…-$111] · 20% credit	75% surv 66%	-$29,952 NOT cap gain +$7,623
budget: banked $400 debit $344 (86% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,392/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,333/mo
vs 50% target ($1,931/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($3,862/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,136/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $312.50 is $300 below CC-SS $612.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$29,570
… as % of IC ($12,800)	231.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	61.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,615

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $316.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $312)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $309.38	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $309-316.90	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $316.90	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$312.50 (1.4σ)	$400	$-31,558	+$6,017	+$380
+2.5%	$320.31 (1.6σ)	$-381	$-31,520	+$6,055	-$401
+5%	$328.12 (1.8σ)	$-1,162	$-31,483	+$6,092	-$1,182
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (8.7σ)	$-27,150	$-30,235	+$7,340	-$9,870

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,575

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,026

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $312.50): -$29,570

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,119 (+$7,456 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,870, the opportunity cost of earning $1,333/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,716, position total $-31,360 (+$6,215 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

1 × $300

6 Nov

15.9%

81%hist 86%

41%hist 40%

+5pp

$630

$2,100

—

$30,590

Sell 1 × $300 15.9% OTM over spot $258.90 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $6.65 mid)

= $630 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,100/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $300)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $306.65)

84%

EV / mo

+$604

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

24% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$686/mo

median; plan ~$466/mo after 68% keep · $5,139 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.5-5.7], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,078

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$329 @ 78% POP

73% survival

Buyback gross: $24.13/sh now → $17.08 mid-life (likely $17.32–$26.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 953 simulated challenges: the $300 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $311 (overshoots $11.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$300	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$2.11/sh	+$211 cycle +$841 [-$17…+$378] · 73% credit	68% surv 53%	-$32,427 NOT cap gain +$5,148
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$306	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$1.98/sh	+$198 cycle +$828 [-$105…+$383] · 60% credit	70% surv 58%	-$31,800 NOT cap gain +$5,775
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$304	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.70/sh	+$70 cycle +$700 [-$171…+$223] · 48% credit	69% surv 56%	-$32,191 NOT cap gain +$5,384
Max even-money escape in the band	~$311	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$5 cycle +$635 [-$329…+$169] · 37% credit	72% surv 61%	-$31,469 NOT cap gain +$6,106
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$329	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$6.15/sh	-$615 cycle +$15 [-$1,090…-$557] · 7% credit	78% surv 73%	-$30,256 NOT cap gain +$7,319
budget: banked $630 debit $615 (98% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $1,821/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,100/mo
vs 50% target ($1,931/mo)	+9%
vs normal income ($3,862/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,903/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $300 is $312 below CC-SS $612.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,590
… as % of IC ($12,800)	239.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	63.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.9 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,610

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.57/sh (~25% of the $6.30 collected) or spot ≥ $306.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $300)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $297.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $297-306.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $306.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$300.00 (1.1σ)	$630	$-32,638	+$4,937	+$610
+2.5%	$307.50 (1.3σ)	$-120	$-32,602	+$4,973	-$140
+5%	$315.00 (1.5σ)	$-870	$-32,566	+$5,009	-$890
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (8.7σ)	$-28,170	$-31,255	+$6,320	-$10,890

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,575

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,026

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $300): -$30,590

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,139 (+$6,436 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,890, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,736, position total $-32,380 (+$5,195 vs today)

▸

100% normal

1 × $277.50

6 Nov

7.2%

68%hist 66%

69%hist 54%

+8pp

$1,190

$3,967

+$1,867

$32,280

Sell 1 × $277.50 7.2% OTM over spot $258.90 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $12.55 mid)

= $1,190 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,967/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $277.50)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $290.05)

75%

EV / mo

+$701

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

37% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,077/mo

median; plan ~$733/mo after 68% keep · $7,783 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.5-5.7], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

56%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$390

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$339 @ 89% POP

88% survival

Buyback gross: $22.32/sh now → $15.80 mid-life (likely $19.38–$27.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,669 simulated challenges: the $278 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $288 (overshoots $10.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$279	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$4.54/sh	+$454 cycle +$1,644 [+$84…+$429] · 91% credit	69% surv 55%	-$33,867 NOT cap gain +$3,708
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$278	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$2.62/sh	+$262 cycle +$1,452 [-$33…+$240] · 62% credit	68% surv 53%	-$34,174 NOT cap gain +$3,401
Max even-money escape in the band	~$289	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.59/sh	+$59 cycle +$1,249 [-$378…-$16] · 23% credit	72% surv 62%	-$33,214 NOT cap gain +$4,361
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$284	13 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.11/sh	+$11 cycle +$1,201 [-$327…-$47] · 21% credit	70% surv 58%	-$33,786 NOT cap gain +$3,789
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$339	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$11.69/sh	-$1,169 cycle +$21 [-$2,045…-$1,434]	89% surv 88%	-$29,201 NOT cap gain +$8,374
budget: banked $1,190 debit $1,169 (98% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $685/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,967/mo
vs 50% target ($1,931/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($3,862/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,769/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $277.50 is $335 below CC-SS $612.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$32,280
… as % of IC ($12,800)	252.2%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	66.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,640

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.98/sh (~25% of the $11.90 collected) or spot ≥ $290.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $278)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $274.73	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $275-290.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $290.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$277.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,190	$-34,436	+$3,139	+$1,170
+2.5%	$284.44 (≤1σ, normal week)	$496	$-34,402	+$3,173	+$476
+5%	$291.38 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-198	$-34,369	+$3,206	-$218
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (8.7σ)	$-29,860	$-32,945	+$4,630	-$12,580

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $612.20, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,575

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,026

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $277.50): -$32,280

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,829 (+$4,746 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,249 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,580, the opportunity cost of earning $3,967/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.66 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,426, position total $-34,070 (+$3,505 vs today)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (49 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 49 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.048 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$37,026 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-20,249

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$300	9d	6 Nov 2026	$6.30	1/1	$630	$2,100	$1,903	81%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	84%	+$604	-$30,590	239.0%	7.9mo	$-31,139 (vs do-nothing $-10,890)
$297.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$6.70	1/1	$670	$2,233	$2,036	79%hist 83%	44%hist 40%	83%	+$589	-$30,800	240.6%	8.0mo	$-31,349 (vs do-nothing $-11,100)
$295	9d	6 Nov 2026	$7.10	1/1	$710	$2,367	$2,169	78%hist 83%	46%hist 40%	82%	+$564	-$31,010	242.3%	8.0mo	$-31,559 (vs do-nothing $-11,310)
$292.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$7.70	1/1	$770	$2,567	$2,369	77%hist 83%	49%hist 40%	81%	+$594	-$31,200	243.8%	8.1mo	$-31,749 (vs do-nothing $-11,500)
$267.50	2d	30 Oct 2026	$1.55	1/1	$155	$2,325	$2,128	76%hist 83%	48%hist 40%	81%	+$500	-$34,315	268.1%	8.9mo	$-34,864 (vs do-nothing $-14,615)
$290	9d	6 Nov 2026	$8.50	1/1	$850	$2,833	$2,636	75%hist 83%	52%hist 44%	80%	+$678	-$31,370	245.1%	8.1mo	$-31,919 (vs do-nothing $-11,670)
$287.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$9.20	1/1	$920	$3,067	$2,869	74%hist 83%	56%hist 44%	79%	+$717	-$31,550	246.5%	8.2mo	$-32,099 (vs do-nothing $-11,850)
$287.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$10.50	1/1	$1,050	$1,969	$1,771	73%hist 83%	58%hist 44%	79%	+$466	-$31,420	245.5%	8.1mo	$-31,969 (vs do-nothing $-11,720)
$285	9d	6 Nov 2026	$9.80	1/1	$980	$3,267	$3,069	72%hist 83%	59%hist 44%	78%	+$709	-$31,740	248.0%	8.2mo	$-32,289 (vs do-nothing $-12,040)
$285	16d	13 Nov 2026	$11.20	1/1	$1,120	$2,100	$1,903	72%hist 83%	61%hist 54%	78%	+$476	-$31,600	246.9%	8.2mo	$-32,149 (vs do-nothing $-11,900)
$282.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$10.60	1/1	$1,060	$3,533	$3,336	71%hist 83%	62%hist 54%	77%	+$754	-$31,910	249.3%	8.3mo	$-32,459 (vs do-nothing $-12,210)
$282.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$11.90	1/1	$1,190	$2,231	$2,034	70%hist 83%	64%hist 54%	77%	+$479	-$31,780	248.3%	8.2mo	$-32,329 (vs do-nothing $-12,080)
$265	2d	30 Oct 2026	$2.30	1/1	$230	$3,450	$3,253	70%hist 66%	61%hist 54%	77%	+$758	-$34,490	269.5%	8.9mo	$-35,039 (vs do-nothing $-14,790)

Show 36 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$280	9d	6 Nov 2026	$11.50	1/1	$1,150	$3,833	$3,636	69%hist 66%	66%hist 54%	76%	+$818	-$32,070	250.6%	8.3mo	$-32,619 (vs do-nothing $-12,370)
$280	16d	13 Nov 2026	$12.70	1/1	$1,270	$2,381	$2,184	69%hist 66%	68%hist 54%	76%	+$493	-$31,950	249.6%	8.3mo	$-32,499 (vs do-nothing $-12,250)
$277.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$11.90	1/1	$1,190	$3,967	$3,769	68%hist 66%	69%hist 54%	75%	+$701	-$32,280	252.2%	8.4mo	$-32,829 (vs do-nothing $-12,580)
$277.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$13.60	1/1	$1,360	$2,550	$2,353	67%hist 66%	71%hist 68%	75%	+$518	-$32,110	250.9%	8.3mo	$-32,659 (vs do-nothing $-12,410)
$277.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$14.90	1/1	$1,490	$1,943	$1,746	67%hist 66%	72%hist 68%	75%	+$385	-$31,980	249.8%	8.3mo	$-32,529 (vs do-nothing $-12,280)
$275	9d	6 Nov 2026	$12.90	1/1	$1,290	$4,300	$4,103	66%hist 66%	73%hist 68%	74%	+$769	-$32,430	253.4%	8.4mo	$-32,979 (vs do-nothing $-12,730)
$275	16d	13 Nov 2026	$14.10	1/1	$1,410	$2,644	$2,446	65%hist 66%	75%hist 68%	74%	+$459	-$32,310	252.4%	8.4mo	$-32,859 (vs do-nothing $-12,610)
$275	23d	20 Nov 2026	$15.70	1/1	$1,570	$2,048	$1,850	65%hist 66%	76%hist 68%	74%	+$380	-$32,150	251.2%	8.3mo	$-32,699 (vs do-nothing $-12,450)
$272.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$13.80	1/1	$1,380	$4,600	$4,403	64%hist 66%	77%hist 68%	73%	+$788	-$32,590	254.6%	8.4mo	$-33,139 (vs do-nothing $-12,890)
$272.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$15.40	1/1	$1,540	$2,888	$2,690	64%hist 66%	78%hist 68%	74%	+$541	-$32,430	253.4%	8.4mo	$-32,979 (vs do-nothing $-12,730)
$272.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$16.90	1/1	$1,690	$2,204	$2,007	63%hist 66%	79%hist 68%	73%	+$421	-$32,280	252.2%	8.4mo	$-32,829 (vs do-nothing $-12,580)
$262.50	2d	30 Oct 2026	$2.85	1/1	$285	$4,275	$4,078	63%hist 66%	76%hist 68%	72%	+$415	-$34,685	271.0%	9.0mo	$-35,234 (vs do-nothing $-14,985)
$270	9d	6 Nov 2026	$14.80	1/1	$1,480	$4,933	$4,736	62%hist 66%	81%hist 79%	73%	+$823	-$32,740	255.8%	8.5mo	$-33,289 (vs do-nothing $-13,040)
$270	16d	13 Nov 2026	$16.20	1/1	$1,620	$3,038	$2,840	62%hist 66%	82%hist 79%	73%	+$520	-$32,600	254.7%	8.4mo	$-33,149 (vs do-nothing $-12,900)
$270	23d	20 Nov 2026	$18.00	1/1	$1,800	$2,348	$2,150	62%hist 66%	83%hist 79%	73%	+$443	-$32,420	253.3%	8.4mo	$-32,969 (vs do-nothing $-12,720)
$267.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$15.60	1/1	$1,560	$5,200	$5,003	60%hist 66%	85%hist 79%	72%	+$774	-$32,910	257.1%	8.5mo	$-33,459 (vs do-nothing $-13,210)
$267.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$17.40	1/1	$1,740	$3,262	$3,065	60%hist 66%	86%hist 79%	72%	+$566	-$32,730	255.7%	8.5mo	$-33,279 (vs do-nothing $-13,030)
$267.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$18.90	1/1	$1,890	$2,465	$2,268	60%hist 66%	87%hist 79%	72%	+$433	-$32,580	254.5%	8.4mo	$-33,129 (vs do-nothing $-12,880)
$265	9d	6 Nov 2026	$16.80	1/1	$1,680	$5,600	$5,403	59%hist 70%	89%hist 79%	71%	+$842	-$33,040	258.1%	8.6mo	$-33,589 (vs do-nothing $-13,340)
$265	16d	13 Nov 2026	$18.40	1/1	$1,840	$3,450	$3,253	59%hist 70%	90%hist 79%	71%	+$564	-$32,880	256.9%	8.5mo	$-33,429 (vs do-nothing $-13,180)
$265	23d	20 Nov 2026	$19.90	1/1	$1,990	$2,596	$2,398	59%hist 70%	90%hist 89%	71%	+$430	-$32,730	255.7%	8.5mo	$-33,279 (vs do-nothing $-13,030)
$262.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$20.60	1/1	$2,060	$2,687	$2,489	57%hist 70%	94%hist 89%	70%	+$382	-$32,910	257.1%	8.5mo	$-33,459 (vs do-nothing $-13,210)
$262.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$19.50	1/1	$1,950	$3,656	$3,459	57%hist 70%	94%hist 89%	70%	+$571	-$33,020	258.0%	8.5mo	$-33,569 (vs do-nothing $-13,320)
$262.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$17.80	1/1	$1,780	$5,933	$5,736	57%hist 70%	94%hist 89%	70%	+$824	-$33,190	259.3%	8.6mo	$-33,739 (vs do-nothing $-13,490)
$260	23d	20 Nov 2026	$21.90	1/1	$2,190	$2,857	$2,659	55%hist 70%	98%hist 89%	69%	+$404	-$33,030	258.1%	8.6mo	$-33,579 (vs do-nothing $-13,330)
$260	16d	13 Nov 2026	$20.60	1/1	$2,060	$3,862	$3,665	55%hist 70%	98%hist 89%	69%	+$569	-$33,160	259.1%	8.6mo	$-33,709 (vs do-nothing $-13,460)
$260	9d	6 Nov 2026	$19.30	1/1	$1,930	$6,433	$6,236	55%hist 70%	98%hist 89%	69%	+$955	-$33,290	260.1%	8.6mo	$-33,839 (vs do-nothing $-13,590)
$260	2d	30 Oct 2026	$4.00	1/1	$400	$6,000	$5,803	55%hist 70%	93%hist 89%	68%	+$630	-$34,820	272.0%	9.0mo	$-35,369 (vs do-nothing $-15,120)
$257.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$22.90	1/1	$2,290	$2,987	$2,789	53%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	69%	+$381	-$33,180	259.2%	8.6mo	$-33,729 (vs do-nothing $-13,480)
$257.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$21.20	1/1	$2,120	$3,975	$3,778	53%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$462	-$33,350	260.6%	8.6mo	$-33,899 (vs do-nothing $-13,650)
$257.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$20.30	1/1	$2,030	$6,767	$6,569	53%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$899	-$33,440	261.3%	8.7mo	$-33,989 (vs do-nothing $-13,740)
$255	23d	20 Nov 2026	$24.20	1/1	$2,420	$3,157	$2,959	52%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$391	-$33,300	260.2%	8.6mo	$-33,849 (vs do-nothing $-13,600)
$255	16d	13 Nov 2026	$23.00	1/1	$2,300	$4,312	$4,115	51%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$570	-$33,420	261.1%	8.7mo	$-33,969 (vs do-nothing $-13,720)
$255	9d	6 Nov 2026	$21.30	1/1	$2,130	$7,100	$6,903	51%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$824	-$33,590	262.4%	8.7mo	$-34,139 (vs do-nothing $-13,890)
$257.50	2d	30 Oct 2026	$5.10	1/1	$510	$7,650	$7,453	46%	100%hist 89%	64%	+$404	-$34,960	273.1%	9.1mo	$-35,509 (vs do-nothing $-15,260)
$255	2d	30 Oct 2026	$6.50	1/1	$650	$9,750	$9,553	38%	100%hist 89%	62%	+$262	-$35,070	274.0%	9.1mo	$-35,619 (vs do-nothing $-15,370)

98 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$500	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$7	$-191	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$6	-$11,215	87.6%	2.9mo	$-11,764 (vs do-nothing +$8,485)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$395	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$17	$-181	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$15	-$21,715	169.7%	5.6mo	$-22,264 (vs do-nothing $-2,015)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$375	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$17	$-181	99+%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$11	-$23,715	185.3%	6.1mo	$-24,264 (vs do-nothing $-4,015)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$370	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.15	1/1	$15	$50	$-147	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$42	-$24,205	189.1%	6.3mo	$-24,754 (vs do-nothing $-4,505)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$415	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.20	1/1	$20	$38	$-160	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$29	-$19,700	153.9%	5.1mo	$-20,249 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$440	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.20	1/1	$20	$26	$-171	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$18	-$17,200	134.4%	4.5mo	$-17,749 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$430	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.20	1/1	$20	$26	$-171	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$15	-$18,200	142.2%	4.7mo	$-18,749 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$400	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.25	1/1	$25	$47	$-151	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$33	-$21,195	165.6%	5.5mo	$-21,744 (vs do-nothing $-1,495)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$290	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$75	$-122	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$57	-$32,215	251.7%	8.3mo	$-32,764 (vs do-nothing $-12,515)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$420	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.25	1/1	$25	$33	$-165	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$17	-$19,195	150.0%	5.0mo	$-19,744 (vs do-nothing +$505)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$410	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.30	1/1	$30	$39	$-158	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	+$17	-$20,190	157.7%	5.2mo	$-20,739 (vs do-nothing $-490)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.50	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$75	$-122	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	+$40	-$32,465	253.6%	8.4mo	$-33,014 (vs do-nothing $-12,765)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$400	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.50	1/1	$50	$65	$-132	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$35	-$21,170	165.4%	5.5mo	$-21,719 (vs do-nothing $-1,470)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$365	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.10	1/1	$10	$33	$-164	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	$-23	-$24,710	193.1%	6.4mo	$-25,259 (vs do-nothing $-5,010)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$285	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.10	1/1	$10	$150	$-47	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$87	-$32,710	255.6%	8.5mo	$-33,259 (vs do-nothing $-13,010)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$390	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.70	1/1	$70	$91	$-106	97%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$50	-$22,150	173.1%	5.7mo	$-22,699 (vs do-nothing $-2,450)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.50	1/1	$50	$167	$-31	97%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	97%	+$85	-$24,920	194.7%	6.5mo	$-25,469 (vs do-nothing $-5,220)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$375	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.70	1/1	$70	$131	$-66	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$72	-$23,650	184.8%	6.1mo	$-24,199 (vs do-nothing $-3,950)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$360	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.60	1/1	$60	$200	$3	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$101	-$25,160	196.6%	6.5mo	$-25,709 (vs do-nothing $-5,460)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$357.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.70	1/1	$70	$233	$36	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$131	-$25,400	198.4%	6.6mo	$-25,949 (vs do-nothing $-5,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$355	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.85	1/1	$85	$283	$86	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$162	-$25,635	200.3%	6.6mo	$-26,184 (vs do-nothing $-5,935)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$282.50	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.10	1/1	$10	$150	$-47	96%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$39	-$32,960	257.5%	8.5mo	$-33,509 (vs do-nothing $-13,260)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$365	16d	13 Nov 2026	$0.90	1/1	$90	$169	$-29	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$80	-$24,630	192.4%	6.4mo	$-25,179 (vs do-nothing $-4,930)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$352.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$0.95	1/1	$95	$317	$119	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$178	-$25,875	202.2%	6.7mo	$-26,424 (vs do-nothing $-6,175)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$380	23d	20 Nov 2026	$0.95	1/1	$95	$124	$-74	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$41	-$23,125	180.7%	6.0mo	$-23,674 (vs do-nothing $-3,425)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$1.00	1/1	$100	$188	$-10	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$89	-$24,870	194.3%	6.4mo	$-25,419 (vs do-nothing $-5,170)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$370	23d	20 Nov 2026	$1.20	1/1	$120	$157	$-41	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$76	-$24,100	188.3%	6.2mo	$-24,649 (vs do-nothing $-4,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$350	9d	6 Nov 2026	$1.00	1/1	$100	$333	$136	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$173	-$26,120	204.1%	6.8mo	$-26,669 (vs do-nothing $-6,420)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$360	16d	13 Nov 2026	$1.15	1/1	$115	$216	$18	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$107	-$25,105	196.1%	6.5mo	$-25,654 (vs do-nothing $-5,405)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$1.15	1/1	$115	$383	$186	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$210	-$26,355	205.9%	6.8mo	$-26,904 (vs do-nothing $-6,655)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$357.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$1.20	1/1	$120	$225	$28	95%hist 95%	10%hist 4%	96%	+$105	-$25,350	198.1%	6.6mo	$-25,899 (vs do-nothing $-5,650)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$345	9d	6 Nov 2026	$1.30	1/1	$130	$433	$236	95%hist 95%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$235	-$26,590	207.7%	6.9mo	$-27,139 (vs do-nothing $-6,890)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$355	16d	13 Nov 2026	$1.20	1/1	$120	$225	$28	95%hist 95%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$93	-$25,600	200.0%	6.6mo	$-26,149 (vs do-nothing $-5,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$280	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.25	1/1	$25	$375	$178	95%hist 95%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$189	-$33,195	259.3%	8.6mo	$-33,744 (vs do-nothing $-13,495)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$352.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$1.45	1/1	$145	$272	$74	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$126	-$25,825	201.8%	6.7mo	$-26,374 (vs do-nothing $-6,125)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$1.35	1/1	$135	$450	$253	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$225	-$26,835	209.7%	6.9mo	$-27,384 (vs do-nothing $-7,135)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$350	16d	13 Nov 2026	$1.60	1/1	$160	$300	$103	94%hist 95%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$139	-$26,060	203.6%	6.7mo	$-26,609 (vs do-nothing $-6,360)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$340	9d	6 Nov 2026	$1.55	1/1	$155	$517	$319	94%hist 95%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$261	-$27,065	211.4%	7.0mo	$-27,614 (vs do-nothing $-7,365)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$1.65	1/1	$165	$309	$112	94%hist 95%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$132	-$26,305	205.5%	6.8mo	$-26,854 (vs do-nothing $-6,605)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$337.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$1.65	1/1	$165	$550	$353	94%hist 95%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$261	-$27,305	213.3%	7.1mo	$-27,854 (vs do-nothing $-7,605)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$360	23d	20 Nov 2026	$1.80	1/1	$180	$235	$37	94%hist 95%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$76	-$25,040	195.6%	6.5mo	$-25,589 (vs do-nothing $-5,340)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$345	16d	13 Nov 2026	$1.75	1/1	$175	$328	$131	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$133	-$26,545	207.4%	6.9mo	$-27,094 (vs do-nothing $-6,845)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$335	9d	6 Nov 2026	$1.75	1/1	$175	$583	$386	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$256	-$27,545	215.2%	7.1mo	$-28,094 (vs do-nothing $-7,845)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$2.00	1/1	$200	$375	$178	93%hist 95%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$160	-$26,770	209.1%	6.9mo	$-27,319 (vs do-nothing $-7,070)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$277.50	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.35	1/1	$35	$525	$328	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	93%	+$219	-$33,435	261.2%	8.7mo	$-33,984 (vs do-nothing $-13,735)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$332.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$1.90	1/1	$190	$633	$436	93%hist 95%	16%hist 13%	93%	+$265	-$27,780	217.0%	7.2mo	$-28,329 (vs do-nothing $-8,080)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$340	16d	13 Nov 2026	$2.15	1/1	$215	$403	$206	93%hist 95%	16%hist 13%	93%	+$167	-$27,005	211.0%	7.0mo	$-27,554 (vs do-nothing $-7,305)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$350	23d	20 Nov 2026	$2.25	1/1	$225	$293	$96	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	92%	+$75	-$25,995	203.1%	6.7mo	$-26,544 (vs do-nothing $-6,295)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$337.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$2.25	1/1	$225	$422	$224	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	93%	+$162	-$27,245	212.9%	7.1mo	$-27,794 (vs do-nothing $-7,545)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$330	9d	6 Nov 2026	$2.25	1/1	$225	$750	$553	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	92%	+$335	-$27,995	218.7%	7.2mo	$-28,544 (vs do-nothing $-8,295)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$335	16d	13 Nov 2026	$2.55	1/1	$255	$478	$281	91%hist 95%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$193	-$27,465	214.6%	7.1mo	$-28,014 (vs do-nothing $-7,765)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$327.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$2.45	1/1	$245	$817	$619	91%hist 95%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$350	-$28,225	220.5%	7.3mo	$-28,774 (vs do-nothing $-8,525)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$332.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$2.70	1/1	$270	$506	$309	91%hist 95%	19%hist 13%	92%	+$193	-$27,700	216.4%	7.2mo	$-28,249 (vs do-nothing $-8,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$325	9d	6 Nov 2026	$2.65	1/1	$265	$883	$686	90%hist 95%	20%hist 13%	91%	+$360	-$28,455	222.3%	7.4mo	$-29,004 (vs do-nothing $-8,755)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$330	16d	13 Nov 2026	$3.00	1/1	$300	$562	$365	90%hist 95%	21%hist 23%	91%	+$218	-$27,920	218.1%	7.2mo	$-28,469 (vs do-nothing $-8,220)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$275	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.55	1/1	$55	$825	$628	90%hist 95%	20%hist 23%	91%	+$332	-$33,665	263.0%	8.7mo	$-34,214 (vs do-nothing $-13,965)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$340	23d	20 Nov 2026	$2.90	1/1	$290	$378	$181	90%hist 95%	21%hist 23%	91%	+$79	-$26,930	210.4%	7.0mo	$-27,479 (vs do-nothing $-7,230)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$322.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$2.80	1/1	$280	$933	$736	90%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	91%	+$347	-$28,690	224.1%	7.4mo	$-29,239 (vs do-nothing $-8,990)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$327.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$3.30	1/1	$330	$619	$421	90%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	91%	+$241	-$28,140	219.8%	7.3mo	$-28,689 (vs do-nothing $-8,440)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$330	23d	20 Nov 2026	$4.00	1/1	$400	$522	$324	89%hist 86%	23%hist 23%	90%	+$214	-$27,820	217.3%	7.2mo	$-28,369 (vs do-nothing $-8,120)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$320	9d	6 Nov 2026	$3.10	1/1	$310	$1,033	$836	89%hist 86%	23%hist 23%	90%	+$378	-$28,910	225.9%	7.5mo	$-29,459 (vs do-nothing $-9,210)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$325	16d	13 Nov 2026	$3.50	1/1	$350	$656	$459	89%hist 86%	23%hist 23%	90%	+$242	-$28,370	221.6%	7.3mo	$-28,919 (vs do-nothing $-8,670)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$322.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$3.70	1/1	$370	$694	$496	88%hist 86%	25%hist 23%	89%	+$239	-$28,600	223.4%	7.4mo	$-29,149 (vs do-nothing $-8,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$317.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$3.50	1/1	$350	$1,167	$969	88%hist 86%	25%hist 23%	89%	+$435	-$29,120	227.5%	7.5mo	$-29,669 (vs do-nothing $-9,420)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$320	16d	13 Nov 2026	$4.00	1/1	$400	$750	$553	87%hist 86%	27%hist 23%	89%	+$252	-$28,820	225.2%	7.5mo	$-29,369 (vs do-nothing $-9,120)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$315	9d	6 Nov 2026	$3.80	1/1	$380	$1,267	$1,069	87%hist 86%	27%hist 23%	89%	+$451	-$29,340	229.2%	7.6mo	$-29,889 (vs do-nothing $-9,640)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$272.50	2d	30 Oct 2026	$0.75	1/1	$75	$1,125	$928	87%hist 86%	27%hist 23%	88%	+$346	-$33,895	264.8%	8.8mo	$-34,444 (vs do-nothing $-14,195)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$317.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$4.40	1/1	$440	$825	$628	87%hist 86%	29%hist 23%	88%	+$280	-$29,030	226.8%	7.5mo	$-29,579 (vs do-nothing $-9,330)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$312.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$4.00	1/1	$400	$1,333	$1,136	86%hist 86%	29%hist 23%	88%	+$426	-$29,570	231.0%	7.7mo	$-30,119 (vs do-nothing $-9,870)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$320	23d	20 Nov 2026	$5.20	1/1	$520	$678	$481	86%hist 86%	29%hist 23%	88%	+$249	-$28,700	224.2%	7.4mo	$-29,249 (vs do-nothing $-9,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$315	16d	13 Nov 2026	$4.80	1/1	$480	$900	$703	86%hist 86%	30%hist 30%	87%	+$303	-$29,240	228.4%	7.6mo	$-29,789 (vs do-nothing $-9,540)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$310	9d	6 Nov 2026	$4.40	1/1	$440	$1,467	$1,269	85%hist 86%	31%hist 30%	87%	+$460	-$29,780	232.7%	7.7mo	$-30,329 (vs do-nothing $-10,080)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$312.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$5.20	1/1	$520	$975	$778	85%hist 86%	32%hist 30%	87%	+$323	-$29,450	230.1%	7.6mo	$-29,999 (vs do-nothing $-9,750)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$315	23d	20 Nov 2026	$5.90	1/1	$590	$770	$572	84%hist 86%	33%hist 30%	86%	+$265	-$29,130	227.6%	7.5mo	$-29,679 (vs do-nothing $-9,430)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$307.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$4.90	1/1	$490	$1,633	$1,436	84%hist 86%	33%hist 30%	86%	+$518	-$29,980	234.2%	7.8mo	$-30,529 (vs do-nothing $-10,280)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$310	16d	13 Nov 2026	$5.50	1/1	$550	$1,031	$834	84%hist 86%	34%hist 30%	86%	+$319	-$29,670	231.8%	7.7mo	$-30,219 (vs do-nothing $-9,970)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$305	9d	6 Nov 2026	$5.30	1/1	$530	$1,767	$1,569	83%hist 86%	36%hist 30%	85%	+$534	-$30,190	235.9%	7.8mo	$-30,739 (vs do-nothing $-10,490)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$307.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$6.00	1/1	$600	$1,125	$928	83%hist 86%	37%hist 30%	85%	+$348	-$29,870	233.4%	7.7mo	$-30,419 (vs do-nothing $-10,170)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$310	23d	20 Nov 2026	$6.70	1/1	$670	$874	$676	83%hist 86%	37%hist 30%	85%	+$281	-$29,550	230.9%	7.7mo	$-30,099 (vs do-nothing $-9,850)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$270	2d	30 Oct 2026	$1.15	1/1	$115	$1,725	$1,528	82%hist 86%	37%hist 30%	85%	+$520	-$34,105	266.4%	8.8mo	$-34,654 (vs do-nothing $-14,405)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.50	9d	6 Nov 2026	$5.70	1/1	$570	$1,900	$1,703	82%hist 86%	38%hist 30%	85%	+$541	-$30,400	237.5%	7.9mo	$-30,949 (vs do-nothing $-10,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$305	16d	13 Nov 2026	$6.40	1/1	$640	$1,200	$1,003	82%hist 86%	39%hist 30%	84%	+$353	-$30,080	235.0%	7.8mo	$-30,629 (vs do-nothing $-10,380)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$6.90	1/1	$690	$1,294	$1,096	81%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	84%	+$371	-$30,280	236.6%	7.8mo	$-30,829 (vs do-nothing $-10,580)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$305	23d	20 Nov 2026	$7.60	1/1	$760	$991	$794	81%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	84%	+$297	-$29,960	234.1%	7.8mo	$-30,509 (vs do-nothing $-10,260)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$300	16d	13 Nov 2026	$7.40	1/1	$740	$1,388	$1,190	79%hist 83%	44%hist 40%	83%	+$384	-$30,480	238.1%	7.9mo	$-31,029 (vs do-nothing $-10,780)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$300	23d	20 Nov 2026	$8.70	1/1	$870	$1,135	$937	78%hist 83%	46%hist 40%	82%	+$324	-$30,350	237.1%	7.9mo	$-30,899 (vs do-nothing $-10,650)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$8.00	1/1	$800	$1,500	$1,303	78%hist 83%	46%hist 40%	82%	+$410	-$30,670	239.6%	7.9mo	$-31,219 (vs do-nothing $-10,970)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$9.00	1/1	$900	$1,174	$976	77%hist 83%	49%hist 40%	81%	+$299	-$30,570	238.8%	7.9mo	$-31,119 (vs do-nothing $-10,870)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$295	16d	13 Nov 2026	$8.50	1/1	$850	$1,594	$1,396	77%hist 83%	49%hist 40%	81%	+$410	-$30,870	241.2%	8.0mo	$-31,419 (vs do-nothing $-11,170)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$295	23d	20 Nov 2026	$9.80	1/1	$980	$1,278	$1,081	76%hist 83%	51%hist 44%	81%	+$335	-$30,740	240.2%	8.0mo	$-31,289 (vs do-nothing $-11,040)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.50	16d	13 Nov 2026	$9.10	1/1	$910	$1,706	$1,509	76%hist 83%	52%hist 44%	80%	+$423	-$31,060	242.7%	8.0mo	$-31,609 (vs do-nothing $-11,360)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$10.40	1/1	$1,040	$1,357	$1,159	75%hist 83%	54%hist 44%	80%	+$340	-$30,930	241.6%	8.0mo	$-31,479 (vs do-nothing $-11,230)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$290	16d	13 Nov 2026	$9.80	1/1	$980	$1,838	$1,640	74%hist 83%	55%hist 44%	80%	+$448	-$31,240	244.1%	8.1mo	$-31,789 (vs do-nothing $-11,540)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$290	23d	20 Nov 2026	$11.30	1/1	$1,130	$1,474	$1,276	74%hist 83%	57%hist 44%	79%	+$380	-$31,090	242.9%	8.0mo	$-31,639 (vs do-nothing $-11,390)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$11.80	1/1	$1,180	$1,539	$1,342	72%hist 83%	60%hist 44%	78%	+$362	-$31,290	244.5%	8.1mo	$-31,839 (vs do-nothing $-11,590)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$285	23d	20 Nov 2026	$12.60	1/1	$1,260	$1,643	$1,446	71%hist 83%	63%hist 54%	77%	+$379	-$31,460	245.8%	8.1mo	$-32,009 (vs do-nothing $-11,760)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$282.50	23d	20 Nov 2026	$13.30	1/1	$1,330	$1,735	$1,537	69%hist 66%	66%hist 54%	77%	+$378	-$31,640	247.2%	8.2mo	$-32,189 (vs do-nothing $-11,940)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$280	23d	20 Nov 2026	$14.20	1/1	$1,420	$1,852	$1,655	68%hist 66%	69%hist 54%	76%	+$397	-$31,800	248.4%	8.2mo	$-32,349 (vs do-nothing $-12,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-29 03:13