FORTRESS FIGHT: APP @ $256.79

BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $613.66 | 1 contracts (100 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

APP @ $256.79 UNDERWATER $331.21 (56.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

APP reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 6 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

1 contracts (100 sh) | BE SS: $588.00 | CC-SS: $613.66 (banked floor $577.31) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $460 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $287.732/sh)

SP: $540 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $160.484/sh)

HP: $185 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.372/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,300	(ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100
Normal income ref	$4,080/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$219/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-37,945	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,040/mo

HEDGE COVER
$219/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$4,080/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.1 mo to earn back $12,800

ML VELOCITY
11.8 mo to earn back $48,300

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $613.66 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $415C (15d, $30/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$3,885

Hole (after banked)

$34,060

was $37,945 · 10% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$613.66 → $577.31

? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Full leg history (16) and event log · CLOSED 8 · UNKNOWN 4 · EXPIRED 4 · updated 2026-10-30 03:10

Status	Leg	Credit/sh	Credit	Opened	Closed	Close/sh	Banked	Account	Source
CLOSED	1x $270C 30 Oct 2026	$4.95	$495	2026-10-23	2026-10-28	$1.54	$341	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $290C 23 Oct 2026	$1.68	$168	2026-10-21	2026-10-22	$0.09	$159	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $290C 23 Oct 2026	$4.80	$480	2026-10-13	2026-10-19	$0.90	$390	U18827291	execution
EXPIRED	1x $300C 9 Oct 2026	$1.91	$191	2026-10-06	2026-10-12	$0.00	$191	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $295C 9 Oct 2026	$3.00	$300	2026-10-05	2026-10-06	$3.69	$-69	U18827291	snapshot
EXPIRED	1x $335C 2 Oct 2026	$2.75	$275	2026-09-28	2026-10-05	$0.00	$275	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $370C 2 Oct 2026	$1.70	$170	2026-09-22	2026-09-28	$1.70	$0	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $330C 25 Sep 2026	$3.20	$320	2026-09-21	2026-09-22	$3.20	$0	U18827291	snapshot
EXPIRED	1x $332.5C 11 Sep 2026	$2.50	$250	2026-09-08	2026-09-14	$0.00	$250	U18827291	snapshot
EXPIRED	1x $360C 4 Sep 2026	$2.37	$237	2026-08-19	2026-09-08	$0.00	$237	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $320C 21 Aug 2026	$3.56	$356	2026-08-18	2026-08-19	$3.56	$0	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $435C 31 Jul 2026	$6.92	$692	2026-07-23	2026-07-30	$1.40	$552	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $465C 31 Jul 2026	$10.80	$1,080	2026-07-22	2026-07-23	$2.08	$872	U18827291	snapshot
UNKNOWN	1x $480C 24 Jul 2026	$6.90	$690	2026-07-17	2026-07-22	$6.90	$0	U18827291	snapshot
CLOSED	1x $490C 17 Jul 2026	$3.00	$300	2026-07-15	2026-07-16	$0.28	$272	U18827291	execution
CLOSED	1x $600C 17 Jul 2026	$4.35	$435	2026-07-02	2026-07-13	$0.20	$415	U18827291	seed

Event log

2026-10-28 CLOSED 1x $270C 20261030: banked $341

2026-10-23 SOLD 1x $270C 20261030 @ $4.95 (new leg)

2026-10-22 CLOSED 1x $290C 20261023: banked $159

2026-10-21 SOLD 1x $290C 20261023 @ $1.68 (new leg)

2026-10-19 CLOSED 1x $290C 20261023: banked $390

2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $290C 20261023 @ $4.80 (new leg)

2026-10-12 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $300C: banked $191

2026-10-06 BOT 1x $355C 20261023 @ $0.72 with no tracked leg (ignored)

2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $300C 20261009 @ $1.91 (new leg)

2026-10-06 CLOSED 1x $295C 20261009: banked $-69

2026-10-06 SLD 1x $355C 20261023 @ $0.86 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)

2026-10-05 TRACKING 1x $295C 20261009 @ $3.00 (snapshot)

2026-10-05 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $335C: banked $275

2026-09-28 TRACKING 1x $335C 20261002 @ $2.75 (snapshot)

2026-09-28 ? 1x $370C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-22 TRACKING 1x $370C 20261002 @ $1.70 (snapshot)

2026-09-22 ? 1x $330C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-21 TRACKING 1x $330C 20260925 @ $3.20 (snapshot)

2026-09-14 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $332.5C: banked $250

2026-09-08 TRACKING 1x $332.5C 20260911 @ $2.50 (snapshot)

2026-09-08 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $360C: banked $237

2026-08-19 TRACKING 1x $360C 20260904 @ $2.37 (snapshot)

2026-08-19 ? 1x $320C 20260821 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-08-18 SOLD 1x $320C 20260821 @ $3.56 (new leg)

2026-07-30 CLOSED 1x $435C 20260731: banked $552

2026-07-23 CLOSED 1x $465C 20260731: banked $872

2026-07-23 SOLD 1x $435C 20260731 @ $6.92 (new leg)

2026-07-22 TRACKING 1x $465C 20260731 @ $10.80 (snapshot)

2026-07-22 ? 1x $480C 20260724 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-07-17 TRACKING 1x $480C 20260724 @ $6.90 (snapshot)

2026-07-16 CLOSED 1x $490C 20260717: banked $272

2026-07-15 SOLD 1x $490C 20260717 @ $3.00 (new leg)

2026-07-13 CLOSED 1x $600C 20260717: banked $415

2026-07-02 TRACKING 1x $600C 20260717 @ $4.35 (seed)

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 21 (live) · RSI 32 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B 13 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $353.53 (+38%) · daily UBB $285.66 · 1-wk expected move ±$41 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 1 contract at $300 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 82%, breach 18%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,040/mo); it brings $2,175/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 × $277.50/8d for $4,162/mo, but breach risk rises to 31% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $355/8d (97% survival, $225/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $30,786 (241% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $588, recoverable in 7.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-37,980 and cuts bleed by $219/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (8d) · sell 1 × $300, 82% survival, $2,175/mo (E[net] $151/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡	6 Nov 2026 · 8d	1 × $300	82%	$2,175	$151

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $580 with probability 72%; on the 28% touch you roll, paying $1,723 to close and taking $348 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,376) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 8d · E[net] $151/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 1 × $300 (50% normal), 82% survival, breach 18%, $2,175/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $310 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 18% → 14%) for $750/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

APP spot $256.79 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $355

6 Nov

38.2%

97%hist 95%

6%hist 4%

+1pp

$60

$225

-$1,950

$25,806

Sell 1 × $355 38.2% OTM over spot $256.79 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $0.85 mid)

= $60 credit for the 8d cycle → $225/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $355)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $355.85)

97%

EV / mo

+$127

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

25% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-57/mo

median; plan ~$-39/mo after 68% keep · $-465 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.2-5.3], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,979

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$363 @ 68% POP

58% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $28.82/sh now → $20.39 mid-life (likely $16.49–$28.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 175 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $370 (overshoots $15.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$355	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.35/sh	+$35 cycle +$95 [+$11…+$641] · 76% credit	67% surv 53%	-$27,607 NOT cap gain +$10,338
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$356	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.17/sh	+$17 cycle +$77 [-$9…+$616] · 74% credit	68% surv 54%	-$27,550 NOT cap gain +$10,395
Max even-money escape in the band	~$363	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.42/sh	+$42 cycle +$102 [-$215…+$520] · 61% credit	68% surv 58%	-$26,744 NOT cap gain +$11,201
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$225/mo
vs 50% target ($2,040/mo)	-89%
vs normal income ($4,080/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $355 is $259 below CC-SS $613.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,806
… as % of IC ($12,800)	201.6%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	53.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.3 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,970

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $355.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $351.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $351-355.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $355.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$355.00 (2.2σ)	$60	$-27,642	+$10,303	+$45
+2.5%	$363.87 (2.4σ)	$-827	$-27,604	+$10,341	-$842
+5%	$372.75 (2.6σ)	$-1,715	$-27,565	+$10,380	-$1,730
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (7.5σ)	$-23,240	$-26,640	+$11,305	-$5,955

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $613.66, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,945

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,222

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $355): -$25,806

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,529 (+$11,416 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,955, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-27,855 (+$10,090 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

1 × $322.50

6 Nov

25.6%

90%hist 95%

20%hist 13%

+3pp

$235

$881

-$1,294

$28,881

Sell 1 × $322.50 25.6% OTM over spot $256.79 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $2.78 mid)

= $235 credit for the 8d cycle → $881/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $322.50)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $325.27)

91%

EV / mo

+$294

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

28% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$263/mo

median; plan ~$179/mo after 68% keep · $1,873 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.0-4.9], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,617

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$331 @ 70% POP

59% survival

Buyback gross: $26.18/sh now → $18.52 mid-life (likely $16.60–$26.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$16.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 473 simulated challenges: the $322 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $335 (overshoots $12.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$322	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$1.41/sh	+$141 cycle +$376 [+$39…+$490] · 79% credit	67% surv 53%	-$30,716 NOT cap gain +$7,229
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$323	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$1.23/sh	+$123 cycle +$358 [+$17…+$470] · 76% credit	68% surv 54%	-$30,660 NOT cap gain +$7,285
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$328	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$2.46/sh	+$246 cycle +$481 [-$68…+$567] · 68% credit	68% surv 58%	-$30,015 NOT cap gain +$7,930
Max even-money escape in the band	~$333	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$29 cycle +$264 [-$331…+$333] · 49% credit	69% surv 60%	-$29,710 NOT cap gain +$8,235
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$331	13 Nov 2026	11d left	-$2.22/sh	-$222 cycle +$13 [-$414…+$83] · 32% credit	70% surv 59%	-$30,222 NOT cap gain +$7,723
budget: banked $235 debit $222 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $4,446/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$881/mo
vs 50% target ($2,040/mo)	-57%
vs normal income ($4,080/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$662/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $322.50 is $291 below CC-SS $613.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,881
… as % of IC ($12,800)	225.6%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	59.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,988

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.35 collected) or spot ≥ $325.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $322)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $319.27	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $319-325.27	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $325.27	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$322.50 (1.5σ)	$235	$-30,856	+$7,089	+$220
+2.5%	$330.56 (1.7σ)	$-571	$-30,822	+$7,123	-$586
+5%	$338.62 (1.8σ)	$-1,378	$-30,787	+$7,158	-$1,392
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (7.5σ)	$-26,315	$-29,715	+$8,230	-$9,030

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $613.66, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,945

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,222

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $322.50): -$28,881

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,604 (+$8,341 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,030, the opportunity cost of earning $881/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,868, position total $-30,723 (+$7,222 vs today)

▸

33% normal

1 × $310

6 Nov

20.7%

86%hist 86%

29%hist 23%

+3pp

$380

$1,425

-$750

$29,986

Sell 1 × $310 20.7% OTM over spot $256.79 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $4.30 mid)

= $380 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,425/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $310)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $314.30)

88%

EV / mo

+$404

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

30% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$485/mo

median; plan ~$330/mo after 68% keep · $3,358 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.1-5.2], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,401

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$323 @ 73% POP

63% survival

Buyback gross: $25.16/sh now → $17.81 mid-life (likely $17.25–$28.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$14.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 653 simulated challenges: the $310 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $323 (overshoots $12.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$310	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$1.76/sh	+$176 cycle +$556 [-$32…+$448] · 71% credit	68% surv 53%	-$31,840 NOT cap gain +$6,105
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$316	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$2.69/sh	+$269 cycle +$649 [-$163…+$440] · 60% credit	68% surv 58%	-$31,150 NOT cap gain +$6,795
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$313	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.17/sh	+$17 cycle +$397 [-$232…+$254] · 47% credit	69% surv 56%	-$31,663 NOT cap gain +$6,282
Max even-money escape in the band	~$321	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.55/sh	+$55 cycle +$435 [-$424…+$214] · 39% credit	69% surv 60%	-$30,843 NOT cap gain +$7,102
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$323	13 Nov 2026	11d left	-$3.59/sh	-$359 cycle +$21 [-$693…-$209] · 14% credit	73% surv 63%	-$30,996 NOT cap gain +$6,949
budget: banked $380 debit $359 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,877/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,425/mo
vs 50% target ($2,040/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($4,080/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,206/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $310 is $304 below CC-SS $613.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$29,986
… as % of IC ($12,800)	234.3%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	62.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.3 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,995

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.95/sh (~25% of the $3.80 collected) or spot ≥ $314.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $310)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $306.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $307-314.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $314.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$310.00 (1.2σ)	$380	$-32,015	+$5,930	+$365
+2.5%	$317.75 (1.4σ)	$-395	$-31,982	+$5,963	-$410
+5%	$325.50 (1.5σ)	$-1,170	$-31,949	+$5,996	-$1,185
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (7.5σ)	$-27,420	$-30,820	+$7,125	-$10,135

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $613.66, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,945

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,222

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $310): -$29,986

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,709 (+$7,236 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,135, the opportunity cost of earning $1,425/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,973, position total $-31,828 (+$6,117 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

1 × $300

6 Nov

16.8%

82%hist 86%

38%hist 30%

+4pp

$580

$2,175

—

$30,786

Sell 1 × $300 16.8% OTM over spot $256.79 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $6.15 mid)

= $580 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,175/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $300)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $306.15)

84%

EV / mo

+$647

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

31% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$691/mo

median; plan ~$470/mo after 68% keep · $5,007 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.2-5.3], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

28%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,143

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$318 @ 75% POP

67% survival

Buyback gross: $24.35/sh now → $17.23 mid-life (likely $17.86–$27.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 828 simulated challenges: the $300 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $312 (overshoots $11.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$300	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$2.01/sh	+$201 cycle +$781 [-$46…+$372] · 68% credit	68% surv 53%	-$32,657 NOT cap gain +$5,288
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$303	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$3.48/sh	+$348 cycle +$928 [-$108…+$451] · 63% credit	67% surv 57%	-$32,176 NOT cap gain +$5,769
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$303	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.43/sh	+$43 cycle +$623 [-$238…+$177] · 40% credit	69% surv 56%	-$32,480 NOT cap gain +$5,465
Max even-money escape in the band	~$311	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.73/sh	+$73 cycle +$653 [-$425…+$157] · 34% credit	69% surv 60%	-$31,668 NOT cap gain +$6,277
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$318	13 Nov 2026	11d left	-$4.83/sh	-$483 cycle +$97 [-$889…-$417] · 7% credit	75% surv 67%	-$31,442 NOT cap gain +$6,503
budget: banked $580 debit $483 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,381/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,175/mo
vs 50% target ($2,040/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($4,080/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,956/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $300 is $314 below CC-SS $613.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,786
… as % of IC ($12,800)	240.5%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	63.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.5 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-37,980

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.45/sh (~25% of the $5.80 collected) or spot ≥ $306.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $300)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $297.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $297-306.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $306.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$300.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$580	$-32,858	+$5,087	+$565
+2.5%	$307.50 (1.1σ)	$-170	$-32,826	+$5,119	-$185
+5%	$315.00 (1.3σ)	$-920	$-32,794	+$5,151	-$935
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (7.5σ)	$-28,220	$-31,620	+$6,325	-$10,935

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $613.66, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,945

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,222

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $300): -$30,786

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,509 (+$6,436 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,935, the opportunity cost of earning $2,175/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,773, position total $-32,628 (+$5,317 vs today)

▸

100% normal

1 × $277.50

6 Nov

8.1%

69%hist 66%

66%hist 54%

+6pp

$1,110

$4,162

+$1,988

$32,506

Sell 1 × $277.50 8.1% OTM over spot $256.79 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $12.20 mid)

= $1,110 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,162/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $277.50)

69%

Breach risk

31%

POP (stays ≤ $289.70)

76%

EV / mo

+$772

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

30% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,008/mo

median; plan ~$685/mo after 68% keep · $7,572 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [2.1-4.9], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

53%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$484

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$336 @ 88% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $22.52/sh now → $15.94 mid-life (likely $19.80–$28.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,587 simulated challenges: the $278 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $289 (overshoots $11.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$278	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$5.35/sh	+$535 cycle +$1,645 [+$17…+$397] · 77% credit	67% surv 55%	-$34,066 NOT cap gain +$3,879
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$278	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$2.51/sh	+$251 cycle +$1,361 [-$73…+$215] · 56% credit	68% surv 53%	-$34,424 NOT cap gain +$3,521
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$281	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.94/sh	+$94 cycle +$1,204 [-$263…+$27] · 27% credit	69% surv 56%	-$34,246 NOT cap gain +$3,699
Max even-money escape in the band	~$291	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.28/sh	+$28 cycle +$1,138 [-$612…-$152] · 16% credit	70% surv 62%	-$33,269 NOT cap gain +$4,676
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$336	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$11.04/sh	-$1,104 cycle +$6 [-$1,997…-$1,393]	88% surv 86%	-$29,707 NOT cap gain +$8,238
budget: banked $1,110 debit $1,104 (99% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $817/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,162/mo
vs 50% target ($2,040/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($4,080/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,943/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $277.50 is $336 below CC-SS $613.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$32,506
… as % of IC ($12,800)	254.0%
… as % of ML ($48,300)	67.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-38,055

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.77/sh (~25% of the $11.10 collected) or spot ≥ $289.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $278)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $285.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $274.73	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $275-289.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $289.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$277.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,110	$-34,675	+$3,270	+$1,095
+2.5%	$284.44 (≤1σ, normal week)	$416	$-34,645	+$3,300	+$401
+5%	$291.38 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-278	$-34,615	+$3,330	-$292
SS (= V-bounce)	$588.00 (7.5σ)	$-29,940	$-33,340	+$4,605	-$12,655

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $613.66, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,945

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,222

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $277.50): -$32,506

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,229 (+$4,716 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,574 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,655, the opportunity cost of earning $4,162/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $353.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,493, position total $-34,348 (+$3,597 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on APP are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (44 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 44 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.043 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$37,222 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-20,574

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$300	8d	6 Nov 2026	$5.80	1/1	$580	$2,175	$1,956	82%hist 86%	38%hist 30%	84%	+$647	-$30,786	240.5%	7.5mo	$-31,509 (vs do-nothing $-10,935)
$297.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$5.90	1/1	$590	$2,212	$1,993	81%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	84%	+$531	-$31,026	242.4%	7.6mo	$-31,749 (vs do-nothing $-11,175)
$295	8d	6 Nov 2026	$6.70	1/1	$670	$2,512	$2,293	79%hist 83%	44%hist 40%	83%	+$666	-$31,196	243.7%	7.6mo	$-31,919 (vs do-nothing $-11,345)
$292.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$6.90	1/1	$690	$2,588	$2,368	78%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	82%	+$563	-$31,426	245.5%	7.7mo	$-32,149 (vs do-nothing $-11,575)
$290	8d	6 Nov 2026	$8.00	1/1	$800	$3,000	$2,781	77%hist 83%	50%hist 40%	81%	+$784	-$31,566	246.6%	7.7mo	$-32,289 (vs do-nothing $-11,715)
$287.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$8.40	1/1	$840	$3,150	$2,931	75%hist 83%	53%hist 44%	80%	+$729	-$31,776	248.3%	7.8mo	$-32,499 (vs do-nothing $-11,925)
$285	8d	6 Nov 2026	$9.40	1/1	$940	$3,525	$3,306	74%hist 83%	56%hist 44%	79%	+$885	-$31,926	249.4%	7.8mo	$-32,649 (vs do-nothing $-12,075)
$285	15d	13 Nov 2026	$10.40	1/1	$1,040	$2,080	$1,861	73%hist 83%	58%hist 44%	79%	+$440	-$31,826	248.6%	7.8mo	$-32,549 (vs do-nothing $-11,975)
$282.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$9.80	1/1	$980	$3,675	$3,456	72%hist 83%	59%hist 44%	78%	+$801	-$32,136	251.1%	7.9mo	$-32,859 (vs do-nothing $-12,285)
$282.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$11.60	1/1	$1,160	$2,320	$2,101	71%hist 83%	62%hist 54%	78%	+$550	-$31,956	249.7%	7.8mo	$-32,679 (vs do-nothing $-12,105)
$280	8d	6 Nov 2026	$10.50	1/1	$1,050	$3,938	$3,718	71%hist 83%	63%hist 54%	77%	+$813	-$32,316	252.5%	7.9mo	$-33,039 (vs do-nothing $-12,465)
$280	15d	13 Nov 2026	$12.10	1/1	$1,210	$2,420	$2,201	70%hist 66%	65%hist 54%	77%	+$512	-$32,156	251.2%	7.9mo	$-32,879 (vs do-nothing $-12,305)
$277.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$11.10	1/1	$1,110	$4,162	$3,943	69%hist 66%	66%hist 54%	76%	+$772	-$32,506	254.0%	8.0mo	$-33,229 (vs do-nothing $-12,655)

Show 31 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$277.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$12.60	1/1	$1,260	$2,520	$2,301	68%hist 66%	68%hist 54%	76%	+$466	-$32,356	252.8%	7.9mo	$-33,079 (vs do-nothing $-12,505)
$275	8d	6 Nov 2026	$12.00	1/1	$1,200	$4,500	$4,281	67%hist 66%	70%hist 54%	75%	+$826	-$32,666	255.2%	8.0mo	$-33,389 (vs do-nothing $-12,815)
$275	15d	13 Nov 2026	$13.80	1/1	$1,380	$2,760	$2,541	67%hist 66%	72%hist 68%	75%	+$551	-$32,486	253.8%	8.0mo	$-33,209 (vs do-nothing $-12,635)
$272.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$12.70	1/1	$1,270	$4,762	$4,543	66%hist 66%	74%hist 68%	74%	+$787	-$32,846	256.6%	8.1mo	$-33,569 (vs do-nothing $-12,995)
$272.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$14.20	1/1	$1,420	$2,840	$2,621	65%hist 66%	75%hist 68%	74%	+$468	-$32,696	255.4%	8.0mo	$-33,419 (vs do-nothing $-12,845)
$275	22d	20 Nov 2026	$15.20	1/1	$1,520	$2,073	$1,853	65%hist 66%	78%hist 68%	72%	$-336	-$32,346	252.7%	7.9mo	$-33,069 (vs do-nothing $-12,495)
$270	8d	6 Nov 2026	$14.10	1/1	$1,410	$5,288	$5,068	64%hist 66%	78%hist 68%	74%	+$992	-$32,956	257.5%	8.1mo	$-33,679 (vs do-nothing $-13,105)
$272.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$16.30	1/1	$1,630	$2,223	$2,003	64%hist 66%	81%hist 79%	71%	$-306	-$32,486	253.8%	8.0mo	$-33,209 (vs do-nothing $-12,635)
$270	15d	13 Nov 2026	$15.30	1/1	$1,530	$3,060	$2,841	63%hist 66%	79%hist 68%	73%	+$515	-$32,836	256.5%	8.0mo	$-33,559 (vs do-nothing $-12,985)
$270	22d	20 Nov 2026	$17.30	1/1	$1,730	$2,359	$2,140	62%hist 66%	84%hist 79%	71%	$-294	-$32,636	255.0%	8.0mo	$-33,359 (vs do-nothing $-12,785)
$267.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$15.20	1/1	$1,520	$5,700	$5,481	62%hist 66%	82%hist 79%	73%	+$1,066	-$33,096	258.6%	8.1mo	$-33,819 (vs do-nothing $-13,245)
$267.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$16.00	1/1	$1,600	$3,200	$2,981	62%hist 66%	83%hist 79%	73%	+$473	-$33,016	257.9%	8.1mo	$-33,739 (vs do-nothing $-13,165)
$267.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$18.10	1/1	$1,810	$2,468	$2,249	61%hist 66%	87%hist 79%	70%	$-314	-$32,806	256.3%	8.0mo	$-33,529 (vs do-nothing $-12,955)
$265	8d	6 Nov 2026	$15.70	1/1	$1,570	$5,888	$5,668	60%hist 66%	86%hist 79%	72%	+$895	-$33,296	260.1%	8.2mo	$-34,019 (vs do-nothing $-13,445)
$265	15d	13 Nov 2026	$17.00	1/1	$1,700	$3,400	$3,181	60%hist 66%	87%hist 79%	72%	+$481	-$33,166	259.1%	8.1mo	$-33,889 (vs do-nothing $-13,315)
$265	22d	20 Nov 2026	$19.00	1/1	$1,900	$2,591	$2,372	60%hist 70%	90%hist 79%	69%	$-325	-$32,966	257.5%	8.1mo	$-33,689 (vs do-nothing $-13,115)
$262.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$20.20	1/1	$2,020	$2,755	$2,535	59%hist 70%	93%hist 89%	69%	$-301	-$33,096	258.6%	8.1mo	$-33,819 (vs do-nothing $-13,245)
$262.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$16.40	1/1	$1,640	$6,150	$5,931	58%hist 70%	90%hist 79%	71%	+$779	-$33,476	261.5%	8.2mo	$-34,199 (vs do-nothing $-13,625)
$262.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$17.90	1/1	$1,790	$3,580	$3,361	58%hist 70%	91%hist 89%	71%	+$459	-$33,326	260.4%	8.2mo	$-34,049 (vs do-nothing $-13,475)
$260	22d	20 Nov 2026	$20.80	1/1	$2,080	$2,836	$2,617	57%hist 70%	96%hist 89%	68%	$-363	-$33,286	260.0%	8.2mo	$-34,009 (vs do-nothing $-13,435)
$260	15d	13 Nov 2026	$19.00	1/1	$1,900	$3,800	$3,581	57%hist 70%	95%hist 89%	70%	+$466	-$33,466	261.5%	8.2mo	$-34,189 (vs do-nothing $-13,615)
$260	8d	6 Nov 2026	$17.80	1/1	$1,780	$6,675	$6,456	56%hist 70%	94%hist 89%	70%	+$905	-$33,586	262.4%	8.2mo	$-34,309 (vs do-nothing $-13,735)
$257.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$22.40	1/1	$2,240	$3,055	$2,835	56%hist 70%	99%hist 89%	67%	$-295	-$33,376	260.8%	8.2mo	$-34,099 (vs do-nothing $-13,525)
$255	22d	20 Nov 2026	$23.20	1/1	$2,320	$3,164	$2,944	55%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	67%	$-341	-$33,546	262.1%	8.2mo	$-34,269 (vs do-nothing $-13,695)
$257.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$20.40	1/1	$2,040	$4,080	$3,861	55%hist 70%	99%hist 89%	69%	+$523	-$33,576	262.3%	8.2mo	$-34,299 (vs do-nothing $-13,725)
$257.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$19.30	1/1	$1,930	$7,238	$7,018	54%hist 70%	99%hist 89%	69%	+$1,046	-$33,686	263.2%	8.3mo	$-34,409 (vs do-nothing $-13,835)
$252.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$24.70	1/1	$2,470	$3,368	$3,149	53%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	66%	$-297	-$33,646	262.9%	8.2mo	$-34,369 (vs do-nothing $-13,795)
$255	15d	13 Nov 2026	$21.00	1/1	$2,100	$4,200	$3,981	53%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$409	-$33,766	263.8%	8.3mo	$-34,489 (vs do-nothing $-13,915)
$255	8d	6 Nov 2026	$20.00	1/1	$2,000	$7,500	$7,281	52%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$866	-$33,866	264.6%	8.3mo	$-34,589 (vs do-nothing $-14,015)
$252.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$23.00	1/1	$2,300	$4,600	$4,381	51%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$564	-$33,816	264.2%	8.3mo	$-34,539 (vs do-nothing $-13,965)
$252.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$21.00	1/1	$2,100	$7,875	$7,656	50%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$776	-$34,016	265.8%	8.3mo	$-34,739 (vs do-nothing $-14,165)

91 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$500	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$7	$-212	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$6	-$11,361	88.8%	2.8mo	$-12,084 (vs do-nothing +$8,490)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$395	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$19	$-200	99+%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$16	-$21,861	170.8%	5.4mo	$-22,584 (vs do-nothing $-2,010)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$450	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.10	1/1	$10	$14	$-206	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$8	-$16,356	127.8%	4.0mo	$-17,079 (vs do-nothing +$3,495)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$440	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.10	1/1	$10	$14	$-206	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$6	-$17,356	135.6%	4.3mo	$-18,079 (vs do-nothing +$2,495)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$430	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.20	1/1	$20	$27	$-192	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$16	-$18,346	143.3%	4.5mo	$-19,069 (vs do-nothing +$1,505)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$375	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	1/1	$5	$19	$-200	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	$-3	-$23,861	186.4%	5.8mo	$-24,584 (vs do-nothing $-4,010)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$420	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.25	1/1	$25	$34	$-185	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$19	-$19,341	151.1%	4.7mo	$-20,064 (vs do-nothing +$510)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$370	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.25	1/1	$25	$94	$-125	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$61	-$24,341	190.2%	6.0mo	$-25,064 (vs do-nothing $-4,490)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$410	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.45	1/1	$45	$61	$-158	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$41	-$20,321	158.8%	5.0mo	$-21,044 (vs do-nothing $-470)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$415	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.15	1/1	$15	$30	$-189	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	$-7	-$19,851	155.1%	4.9mo	$-20,574 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$365	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.20	1/1	$20	$75	$-144	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$27	-$24,846	194.1%	6.1mo	$-25,569 (vs do-nothing $-4,995)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$400	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.50	1/1	$50	$68	$-151	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$40	-$21,316	166.5%	5.2mo	$-22,039 (vs do-nothing $-1,465)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.40	1/1	$40	$150	$-69	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$92	-$25,076	195.9%	6.1mo	$-25,799 (vs do-nothing $-5,225)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$360	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.40	1/1	$40	$150	$-69	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$81	-$25,326	197.9%	6.2mo	$-26,049 (vs do-nothing $-5,475)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$400	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.30	1/1	$30	$60	$-159	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	$-2	-$21,336	166.7%	5.2mo	$-22,059 (vs do-nothing $-1,485)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$390	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.75	1/1	$75	$102	$-117	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$64	-$22,291	174.2%	5.5mo	$-23,014 (vs do-nothing $-2,440)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$375	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.50	1/1	$50	$100	$-119	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$49	-$23,816	186.1%	5.8mo	$-24,539 (vs do-nothing $-3,965)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$355	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.60	1/1	$60	$225	$6	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$127	-$25,806	201.6%	6.3mo	$-26,529 (vs do-nothing $-5,955)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$380	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.95	1/1	$95	$130	$-90	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$76	-$23,271	181.8%	5.7mo	$-23,994 (vs do-nothing $-3,420)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$350	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.85	1/1	$85	$319	$100	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$184	-$26,281	205.3%	6.4mo	$-27,004 (vs do-nothing $-6,430)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$360	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.95	1/1	$95	$190	$-29	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$95	-$25,271	197.4%	6.2mo	$-25,994 (vs do-nothing $-5,420)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$370	22d	20 Nov 2026	$1.05	1/1	$105	$143	$-76	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$68	-$24,261	189.5%	5.9mo	$-24,984 (vs do-nothing $-4,410)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.90	1/1	$90	$338	$118	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$181	-$26,526	207.2%	6.5mo	$-27,249 (vs do-nothing $-6,675)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$345	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.90	1/1	$90	$338	$118	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$175	-$26,776	209.2%	6.6mo	$-27,499 (vs do-nothing $-6,925)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.10	1/1	$110	$412	$193	95%hist 95%	10%hist 4%	96%	+$207	-$27,006	211.0%	6.6mo	$-27,729 (vs do-nothing $-7,155)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$370	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.40	1/1	$40	$80	$-139	95%hist 95%	10%hist 13%	95%	$-89	-$24,326	190.0%	6.0mo	$-25,049 (vs do-nothing $-4,475)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$360	22d	20 Nov 2026	$1.50	1/1	$150	$205	$-15	95%hist 95%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$98	-$25,216	197.0%	6.2mo	$-25,939 (vs do-nothing $-5,365)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$350	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.35	1/1	$135	$270	$51	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$124	-$26,231	204.9%	6.4mo	$-26,954 (vs do-nothing $-6,380)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$340	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.20	1/1	$120	$450	$231	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$208	-$27,246	212.9%	6.7mo	$-27,969 (vs do-nothing $-7,395)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$365	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.75	1/1	$75	$150	$-69	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	$-49	-$24,791	193.7%	6.1mo	$-25,514 (vs do-nothing $-4,940)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$337.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.35	1/1	$135	$506	$287	94%hist 95%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$229	-$27,481	214.7%	6.7mo	$-28,204 (vs do-nothing $-7,630)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.85	1/1	$85	$170	$-49	94%hist 95%	12%hist 13%	94%	$-46	-$25,031	195.6%	6.1mo	$-25,754 (vs do-nothing $-5,180)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$335	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.50	1/1	$150	$562	$343	94%hist 95%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$246	-$27,716	216.5%	6.8mo	$-28,439 (vs do-nothing $-7,865)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$350	22d	20 Nov 2026	$2.20	1/1	$220	$300	$81	94%hist 95%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$149	-$26,146	204.3%	6.4mo	$-26,869 (vs do-nothing $-6,295)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$357.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.00	1/1	$100	$200	$-19	94%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	94%	$-53	-$25,516	199.3%	6.3mo	$-26,239 (vs do-nothing $-5,665)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$332.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.70	1/1	$170	$638	$418	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$277	-$27,946	218.3%	6.8mo	$-28,669 (vs do-nothing $-8,095)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$355	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.00	1/1	$100	$200	$-19	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	93%	$-74	-$25,766	201.3%	6.3mo	$-26,489 (vs do-nothing $-5,915)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$352.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.30	1/1	$130	$260	$41	93%hist 95%	15%hist 13%	93%	$-37	-$25,986	203.0%	6.4mo	$-26,709 (vs do-nothing $-6,135)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$330	8d	6 Nov 2026	$2.05	1/1	$205	$769	$550	93%hist 95%	16%hist 13%	93%	+$360	-$28,161	220.0%	6.9mo	$-28,884 (vs do-nothing $-8,310)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$327.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.90	1/1	$190	$712	$493	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	92%	+$250	-$28,426	222.1%	7.0mo	$-29,149 (vs do-nothing $-8,575)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.50	1/1	$150	$300	$81	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	92%	$-47	-$26,466	206.8%	6.5mo	$-27,189 (vs do-nothing $-6,615)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$340	22d	20 Nov 2026	$2.75	1/1	$275	$375	$156	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	92%	+$160	-$27,091	211.7%	6.6mo	$-27,814 (vs do-nothing $-7,240)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$345	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.65	1/1	$165	$330	$111	91%hist 95%	18%hist 13%	92%	$-46	-$26,701	208.6%	6.5mo	$-27,424 (vs do-nothing $-6,850)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$325	8d	6 Nov 2026	$2.20	1/1	$220	$825	$606	91%hist 95%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$303	-$28,646	223.8%	7.0mo	$-29,369 (vs do-nothing $-8,795)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.75	1/1	$175	$350	$131	91%hist 95%	19%hist 13%	91%	$-56	-$26,941	210.5%	6.6mo	$-27,664 (vs do-nothing $-7,090)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$322.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$2.35	1/1	$235	$881	$662	90%hist 95%	20%hist 13%	91%	+$294	-$28,881	225.6%	7.1mo	$-29,604 (vs do-nothing $-9,030)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$340	15d	13 Nov 2026	$2.00	1/1	$200	$400	$181	90%hist 95%	20%hist 23%	91%	$-38	-$27,166	212.2%	6.7mo	$-27,889 (vs do-nothing $-7,315)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$327.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$2.95	1/1	$295	$590	$371	90%hist 95%	21%hist 23%	91%	+$224	-$28,321	221.3%	6.9mo	$-29,044 (vs do-nothing $-8,470)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$337.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$2.20	1/1	$220	$440	$221	90%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	90%	$-33	-$27,396	214.0%	6.7mo	$-28,119 (vs do-nothing $-7,545)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$320	8d	6 Nov 2026	$2.65	1/1	$265	$994	$775	90%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	91%	+$334	-$29,101	227.4%	7.1mo	$-29,824 (vs do-nothing $-9,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$325	15d	13 Nov 2026	$3.10	1/1	$310	$620	$401	90%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	90%	+$217	-$28,556	223.1%	7.0mo	$-29,279 (vs do-nothing $-8,705)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$330	22d	20 Nov 2026	$3.70	1/1	$370	$505	$285	89%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	90%	+$200	-$27,996	218.7%	6.9mo	$-28,719 (vs do-nothing $-8,145)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$335	15d	13 Nov 2026	$2.45	1/1	$245	$490	$271	89%hist 86%	23%hist 23%	90%	$-21	-$27,621	215.8%	6.8mo	$-28,344 (vs do-nothing $-7,770)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$317.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$2.95	1/1	$295	$1,106	$887	89%hist 86%	23%hist 23%	90%	+$368	-$29,321	229.1%	7.2mo	$-30,044 (vs do-nothing $-9,470)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$332.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$2.60	1/1	$260	$520	$301	89%hist 86%	24%hist 23%	89%	$-31	-$27,856	217.6%	6.8mo	$-28,579 (vs do-nothing $-8,005)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$330	15d	13 Nov 2026	$2.70	1/1	$270	$540	$321	88%hist 86%	25%hist 23%	89%	$-54	-$28,096	219.5%	6.9mo	$-28,819 (vs do-nothing $-8,245)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$320	15d	13 Nov 2026	$3.80	1/1	$380	$760	$541	88%hist 86%	25%hist 23%	89%	+$270	-$28,986	226.5%	7.1mo	$-29,709 (vs do-nothing $-9,135)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$315	8d	6 Nov 2026	$3.20	1/1	$320	$1,200	$981	88%hist 86%	25%hist 23%	89%	+$375	-$29,546	230.8%	7.2mo	$-30,269 (vs do-nothing $-9,695)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$312.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$3.50	1/1	$350	$1,312	$1,093	87%hist 86%	27%hist 23%	88%	+$394	-$29,766	232.5%	7.3mo	$-30,489 (vs do-nothing $-9,915)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$320	22d	20 Nov 2026	$4.80	1/1	$480	$655	$435	87%hist 86%	28%hist 23%	88%	+$226	-$28,886	225.7%	7.1mo	$-29,609 (vs do-nothing $-9,035)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$315	15d	13 Nov 2026	$4.60	1/1	$460	$920	$701	86%hist 86%	29%hist 23%	88%	+$329	-$29,406	229.7%	7.2mo	$-30,129 (vs do-nothing $-9,555)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$310	8d	6 Nov 2026	$3.80	1/1	$380	$1,425	$1,206	86%hist 86%	29%hist 23%	88%	+$404	-$29,986	234.3%	7.3mo	$-30,709 (vs do-nothing $-10,135)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$322.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$3.50	1/1	$350	$700	$481	86%hist 86%	30%hist 23%	87%	$-41	-$28,766	224.7%	7.1mo	$-29,489 (vs do-nothing $-8,915)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$312.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$4.80	1/1	$480	$960	$741	85%hist 86%	31%hist 30%	87%	+$311	-$29,636	231.5%	7.3mo	$-30,359 (vs do-nothing $-9,785)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$307.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$4.50	1/1	$450	$1,688	$1,468	85%hist 86%	31%hist 30%	87%	+$554	-$30,166	235.7%	7.4mo	$-30,889 (vs do-nothing $-10,315)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$315	22d	20 Nov 2026	$5.90	1/1	$590	$805	$585	85%hist 86%	32%hist 30%	87%	+$299	-$29,276	228.7%	7.2mo	$-29,999 (vs do-nothing $-9,425)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$310	15d	13 Nov 2026	$5.10	1/1	$510	$1,020	$801	85%hist 86%	33%hist 30%	86%	+$309	-$29,856	233.3%	7.3mo	$-30,579 (vs do-nothing $-10,005)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$317.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$4.00	1/1	$400	$800	$581	85%hist 86%	33%hist 30%	86%	$-58	-$29,216	228.3%	7.2mo	$-29,939 (vs do-nothing $-9,365)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$305	8d	6 Nov 2026	$4.70	1/1	$470	$1,762	$1,543	84%hist 86%	34%hist 30%	86%	+$508	-$30,396	237.5%	7.5mo	$-31,119 (vs do-nothing $-10,545)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$310	22d	20 Nov 2026	$6.80	1/1	$680	$927	$708	83%hist 86%	36%hist 30%	86%	+$332	-$29,686	231.9%	7.3mo	$-30,409 (vs do-nothing $-9,835)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$5.10	1/1	$510	$1,912	$1,693	83%hist 86%	36%hist 30%	85%	+$527	-$30,606	239.1%	7.5mo	$-31,329 (vs do-nothing $-10,755)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$305	15d	13 Nov 2026	$5.90	1/1	$590	$1,180	$961	83%hist 86%	37%hist 30%	85%	+$331	-$30,276	236.5%	7.4mo	$-30,999 (vs do-nothing $-10,425)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$6.40	1/1	$640	$1,280	$1,061	81%hist 86%	39%hist 30%	84%	+$354	-$30,476	238.1%	7.5mo	$-31,199 (vs do-nothing $-10,625)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$305	22d	20 Nov 2026	$7.20	1/1	$720	$982	$763	81%hist 86%	40%hist 30%	84%	+$283	-$30,146	235.5%	7.4mo	$-30,869 (vs do-nothing $-10,295)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$307.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$5.50	1/1	$550	$1,100	$881	81%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	83%	$-40	-$30,066	234.9%	7.4mo	$-30,789 (vs do-nothing $-10,215)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$300	15d	13 Nov 2026	$7.10	1/1	$710	$1,420	$1,201	80%hist 86%	42%hist 40%	84%	+$411	-$30,656	239.5%	7.5mo	$-31,379 (vs do-nothing $-10,805)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$300	22d	20 Nov 2026	$8.60	1/1	$860	$1,173	$953	79%hist 83%	45%hist 40%	83%	+$356	-$30,506	238.3%	7.5mo	$-31,229 (vs do-nothing $-10,655)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$8.70	1/1	$870	$1,186	$967	78%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	82%	+$304	-$30,746	240.2%	7.5mo	$-31,469 (vs do-nothing $-10,895)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$295	15d	13 Nov 2026	$8.30	1/1	$830	$1,660	$1,441	78%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	82%	+$467	-$31,036	242.5%	7.6mo	$-31,759 (vs do-nothing $-11,185)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$7.40	1/1	$740	$1,480	$1,261	77%hist 83%	49%hist 40%	80%	$-20	-$30,876	241.2%	7.6mo	$-31,599 (vs do-nothing $-11,025)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$295	22d	20 Nov 2026	$9.70	1/1	$970	$1,323	$1,103	77%hist 83%	50%hist 40%	81%	+$372	-$30,896	241.4%	7.6mo	$-31,619 (vs do-nothing $-11,045)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$290	15d	13 Nov 2026	$9.30	1/1	$930	$1,860	$1,641	75%hist 83%	52%hist 44%	80%	+$458	-$31,436	245.6%	7.7mo	$-32,159 (vs do-nothing $-11,585)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$8.80	1/1	$880	$1,760	$1,541	75%hist 83%	54%hist 44%	79%	+$45	-$31,236	244.0%	7.7mo	$-31,959 (vs do-nothing $-11,385)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$290	22d	20 Nov 2026	$10.70	1/1	$1,070	$1,459	$1,240	75%hist 83%	55%hist 44%	80%	+$370	-$31,296	244.5%	7.7mo	$-32,019 (vs do-nothing $-11,445)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$9.80	1/1	$980	$1,960	$1,741	74%hist 83%	55%hist 44%	79%	+$442	-$31,636	247.2%	7.8mo	$-32,359 (vs do-nothing $-11,785)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$9.80	1/1	$980	$1,336	$1,117	73%hist 83%	61%hist 54%	76%	$-361	-$31,136	243.3%	7.6mo	$-31,859 (vs do-nothing $-11,285)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$11.30	1/1	$1,130	$1,541	$1,322	70%hist 83%	65%hist 54%	75%	$-339	-$31,486	246.0%	7.7mo	$-32,209 (vs do-nothing $-11,635)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$285	22d	20 Nov 2026	$12.40	1/1	$1,240	$1,691	$1,472	69%hist 66%	68%hist 54%	75%	$-286	-$31,626	247.1%	7.8mo	$-32,349 (vs do-nothing $-11,775)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$282.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$13.10	1/1	$1,310	$1,786	$1,567	68%hist 66%	70%hist 68%	74%	$-292	-$31,806	248.5%	7.8mo	$-32,529 (vs do-nothing $-11,955)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$280	22d	20 Nov 2026	$13.90	1/1	$1,390	$1,895	$1,676	67%hist 66%	73%hist 68%	73%	$-289	-$31,976	249.8%	7.8mo	$-32,699 (vs do-nothing $-12,125)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$277.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$14.50	1/1	$1,450	$1,977	$1,758	66%hist 66%	76%hist 68%	73%	$-317	-$32,166	251.3%	7.9mo	$-32,889 (vs do-nothing $-12,315)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-30 03:13