FORTRESS FIGHT: APP @ $227.84

BE SS: $588.00  |  CC-SS: $616.94  |  1 contracts (100 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-31 03:19

APP @ $227.84   UNDERWATER $360.16 (61.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
APP reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 5 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

1 contracts (100 sh)  |  BE SS: $588.00  |  CC-SS: $616.94 (banked floor $580.53)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $460 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $287.732/sh)
SP: $540 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $160.484/sh)
HP: $185 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.372/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$48,300(ND $128.00 + SW $355) x 100
Normal income ref$4,363/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$510/mo
Unrealized P&L$-40,725fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,181/mo
HEDGE COVER
$510/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,363/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.9 mo to earn back $12,800
ML VELOCITY
11.1 mo to earn back $48,300
Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $616.94 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $400C (14d, $21/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.
๐Ÿฆ CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$3,885
Hole (after banked)
$36,840
was $40,725 ยท 10% earned back
Cycles closed
16
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$616.94 → $580.53
? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (16) and event log · CLOSED 8 · UNKNOWN 4 · EXPIRED 4 · updated 2026-10-31 03:15
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED1x $270C 30 Oct 2026$4.95$4952026-10-232026-10-28$1.54$341U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $290C 23 Oct 2026$1.68$1682026-10-212026-10-22$0.09$159U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $290C 23 Oct 2026$4.80$4802026-10-132026-10-19$0.90$390U18827291execution
EXPIRED1x $300C 9 Oct 2026$1.91$1912026-10-062026-10-12$0.00$191U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $295C 9 Oct 2026$3.00$3002026-10-052026-10-06$3.69$-69U18827291snapshot
EXPIRED1x $335C 2 Oct 2026$2.75$2752026-09-282026-10-05$0.00$275U18827291snapshot
UNKNOWN1x $370C 2 Oct 2026$1.70$1702026-09-222026-09-28$1.70$0U18827291snapshot
UNKNOWN1x $330C 25 Sep 2026$3.20$3202026-09-212026-09-22$3.20$0U18827291snapshot
EXPIRED1x $332.5C 11 Sep 2026$2.50$2502026-09-082026-09-14$0.00$250U18827291snapshot
EXPIRED1x $360C 4 Sep 2026$2.37$2372026-08-192026-09-08$0.00$237U18827291snapshot
UNKNOWN1x $320C 21 Aug 2026$3.56$3562026-08-182026-08-19$3.56$0U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $435C 31 Jul 2026$6.92$6922026-07-232026-07-30$1.40$552U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $465C 31 Jul 2026$10.80$1,0802026-07-222026-07-23$2.08$872U18827291snapshot
UNKNOWN1x $480C 24 Jul 2026$6.90$6902026-07-172026-07-22$6.90$0U18827291snapshot
CLOSED1x $490C 17 Jul 2026$3.00$3002026-07-152026-07-16$0.28$272U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $600C 17 Jul 2026$4.35$4352026-07-022026-07-13$0.20$415U18827291seed
Event log
2026-10-28 CLOSED 1x $270C 20261030: banked $341
2026-10-23 SOLD 1x $270C 20261030 @ $4.95 (new leg)
2026-10-22 CLOSED 1x $290C 20261023: banked $159
2026-10-21 SOLD 1x $290C 20261023 @ $1.68 (new leg)
2026-10-19 CLOSED 1x $290C 20261023: banked $390
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $290C 20261023 @ $4.80 (new leg)
2026-10-12 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $300C: banked $191
2026-10-06 BOT 1x $355C 20261023 @ $0.72 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $300C 20261009 @ $1.91 (new leg)
2026-10-06 CLOSED 1x $295C 20261009: banked $-69
2026-10-06 SLD 1x $355C 20261023 @ $0.86 has no matching short position (long-close or round-trip; ignored)
2026-10-05 TRACKING 1x $295C 20261009 @ $3.00 (snapshot)
2026-10-05 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $335C: banked $275
2026-09-28 TRACKING 1x $335C 20261002 @ $2.75 (snapshot)
2026-09-28 ? 1x $370C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-22 TRACKING 1x $370C 20261002 @ $1.70 (snapshot)
2026-09-22 ? 1x $330C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-21 TRACKING 1x $330C 20260925 @ $3.20 (snapshot)
2026-09-14 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $332.5C: banked $250
2026-09-08 TRACKING 1x $332.5C 20260911 @ $2.50 (snapshot)
2026-09-08 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 1x $360C: banked $237
2026-08-19 TRACKING 1x $360C 20260904 @ $2.37 (snapshot)
2026-08-19 ? 1x $320C 20260821 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-08-18 SOLD 1x $320C 20260821 @ $3.56 (new leg)
2026-07-30 CLOSED 1x $435C 20260731: banked $552
2026-07-23 CLOSED 1x $465C 20260731: banked $872
2026-07-23 SOLD 1x $435C 20260731 @ $6.92 (new leg)
2026-07-22 TRACKING 1x $465C 20260731 @ $10.80 (snapshot)
2026-07-22 ? 1x $480C 20260724 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-07-17 TRACKING 1x $480C 20260724 @ $6.90 (snapshot)
2026-07-16 CLOSED 1x $490C 20260717: banked $272
2026-07-15 SOLD 1x $490C 20260717 @ $3.00 (new leg)
2026-07-13 CLOSED 1x $600C 20260717: banked $415
2026-07-02 TRACKING 1x $600C 20260717 @ $4.35 (seed)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYOVERSOLD ยท %B 14 (live) ยท RSI 30 ยท MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYFALLING (provisional) ยท RSI 25 ยท %B -14 ยท hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $352.12 (+55%) ยท daily UBB $293.50 ยท 1-wk expected move ยฑ$39 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: ๐ŸŽฏ or ๐Ÿ’Ž at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
โš  Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 1 contract at $275 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 83%, breach 17%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,181/mo); it brings $2,443/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 1 ร— $252.50/7d for $4,543/mo, but breach risk rises to 28% (+12pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 ร— $315/7d (95% survival, $557/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $33,624 (263% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $588, recoverable in 7.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 1 contracts realizes $-40,765 and cuts bleed by $510/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 1 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (7d) · sell 1 × $275, 83% survival, $2,443/mo (E[net] $158/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡6 Nov 2026 · 7d1 × $27583%$2,443$158
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $570 with probability 74%; on the 26% touch you roll, paying $1,882 to close and taking $370 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,512) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 7d · E[net] $158/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

๐ŸŽฏ Engine pick: sell 1 ร— $275 (50% normal), 83% survival, breach 17%, $2,443/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (โ‰ˆ1ฯƒ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $290 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 89% (breach 17% โ†’ 11%) for $900/mo less (37% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
APP  spot $227.84 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸cover hedge1 × $3156 Nov7d38.3%95%hist 95%11%hist 13%+2pp$130$557-$1,886$30,064
Sell 1 ร— $315 38.3% OTM over spot $227.84 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $1.52 mid)
= $130 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $557/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $315)
95%
Breach risk
5%
POP (stays โ‰ค $316.52)
95%
EV / mo
+$247
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
18% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-205/mo
median; plan ~$-140/mo after 68% keep · $-1,818 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.1-5.3], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
8%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,026
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$327 @ 72% POP
61% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $30.46/sh now โ†’ $21.56 mid-life (likely $16.83โ€“$30.90) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$20.26/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 248 simulated challenges: the $315 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $329 (overshoots $14.01). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$31513 Nov 202610d left-$0.01/sh-$1
cycle +$129
[-$74โ€ฆ+$641] ยท 70% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$32,272 NOT
cap gain +$8,453
Max even-money escape in the band~$32227 Nov 202624d left+$0.14/sh+$14
cycle +$144
[-$129โ€ฆ+$759] ยท 69% credit
70%
surv 58%
-$31,573 NOT
cap gain +$9,152
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$32727 Nov 202624d left-$0.53/sh-$53
cycle +$77
[-$195โ€ฆ+$682] ยท 63% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$31,163 NOT
cap gain +$9,562
budget: banked $130 debit $53 (41% used โ‰ˆ 0.4 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$77 cash ยท rolled 1 ct earn โ‰ˆ $2,628/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$557/mo
vs 50% target ($2,181/mo)-74%
vs normal income ($4,363/mo)13% covered
Net income (after hedge)$47/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $315 is $302 below CC-SS $616.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$30,064
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($12,800)234.9%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,300)62.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)6.9 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-40,748
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $316.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $315)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $293.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $311.85Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$312-316.52
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $316.52
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$315.00 (2.2ฯƒ)$130$-32,271+$8,454+$125
+2.5%$322.88 (2.4ฯƒ)$-658$-32,307+$8,418-$662
+5%$330.75 (2.6ฯƒ)$-1,445$-32,342+$8,383-$1,450
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (9.2ฯƒ)$-27,170$-33,500+$7,225-$13,375
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $616.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,725
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,159
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (1 ร— $315): -$30,064
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,630 (+$7,095 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,255 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,375, the opportunity cost of earning $557/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $352.12 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,582, position total $-32,438 (+$8,287 vs today)
▸๐Ÿ›ก safe yield1 × $2956 Nov7d29.5%90%hist 95%21%hist 23%+2pp$265$1,136-$1,307$31,929
Sell 1 ร— $295 29.5% OTM over spot $227.84 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $3.42 mid)
= $265 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $1,136/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $295)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays โ‰ค $298.43)
91%
EV / mo
+$370
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
26% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$60/mo
median; plan ~$41/mo after 68% keep · $391 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.3-5.5], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,754
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$312 @ 74% POP
64% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $28.53/sh now โ†’ $20.19 mid-life (likely $19.21โ€“$31.52) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.54/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 435 simulated challenges: the $295 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $309 (overshoots $14.45). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$29727 Nov 202624d left+$3.03/sh+$303
cycle +$568
[+$31โ€ฆ+$691] ยท 77% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$33,537 NOT
cap gain +$7,188
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$29513 Nov 202610d left+$0.64/sh+$64
cycle +$329
[-$155โ€ฆ+$379] ยท 55% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$33,982 NOT
cap gain +$6,743
Max even-money escape in the band~$30727 Nov 202624d left+$0.27/sh+$27
cycle +$292
[-$283โ€ฆ+$383] ยท 49% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$32,858 NOT
cap gain +$7,867
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$31227 Nov 202624d left-$1.82/sh-$182
cycle +$83
[-$550โ€ฆ+$145] ยท 33% credit
74%
surv 64%
-$32,589 NOT
cap gain +$8,136
budget: banked $265 debit $182 (69% used โ‰ˆ 0.7 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$83 cash ยท rolled 1 ct earn โ‰ˆ $2,297/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,136/mo
vs 50% target ($2,181/mo)-48%
vs normal income ($4,363/mo)26% covered
Net income (after hedge)$625/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $295 is $322 below CC-SS $616.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$31,929
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($12,800)249.4%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,300)66.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)7.3 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-40,802
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.65 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $298.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $295)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $293.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $292.05Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$292-298.43
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $298.43
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$295.00 (1.7ฯƒ)$265$-34,046+$6,679+$260
+2.5%$302.38 (1.9ฯƒ)$-472$-34,079+$6,646-$478
+5%$309.75 (2.1ฯƒ)$-1,210$-34,113+$6,612-$1,215
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (9.2ฯƒ)$-29,035$-35,365+$5,360-$15,240
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $616.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,725
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,159
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (1 ร— $295): -$31,929
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,495 (+$5,230 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,255 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,240, the opportunity cost of earning $1,136/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $352.12 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,447, position total $-34,303 (+$6,422 vs today)
▸33% normal1 × $2906 Nov7d27.3%89%hist 86%24%hist 23%+2pp$360$1,543-$900$32,334
Sell 1 ร— $290 27.3% OTM over spot $227.84 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $3.90 mid)
= $360 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $1,543/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $290)
89%
Breach risk
11%
POP (stays โ‰ค $293.90)
90%
EV / mo
+$603
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
24% whole by 9mo vs 21% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$251/mo
median; plan ~$171/mo after 68% keep · $1,765 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.0-4.7], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
17%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,625
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$312 @ 75% POP
67% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $28.04/sh now โ†’ $19.85 mid-life (likely $18.61โ€“$31.54) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$16.25/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 515 simulated challenges: the $290 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $305 (overshoots $15.28). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$29227 Nov 202624d left+$3.21/sh+$321
cycle +$681
[+$9โ€ฆ+$714] ยท 76% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$33,901 NOT
cap gain +$6,824
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$29013 Nov 202610d left+$0.79/sh+$79
cycle +$439
[-$173โ€ฆ+$397] ยท 55% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$34,349 NOT
cap gain +$6,376
Max even-money escape in the band~$30227 Nov 202624d left+$0.45/sh+$45
cycle +$405
[-$296โ€ฆ+$417] ยท 50% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$33,222 NOT
cap gain +$7,503
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$31227 Nov 202624d left-$3.41/sh-$341
cycle +$19
[-$771โ€ฆ-$9] ยท 24% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$32,653 NOT
cap gain +$8,072
budget: banked $360 debit $341 (95% used โ‰ˆ 1.0 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$19 cash ยท rolled 1 ct earn โ‰ˆ $2,055/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,543/mo
vs 50% target ($2,181/mo)-29%
vs normal income ($4,363/mo)35% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,032/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $290 is $327 below CC-SS $616.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$32,334
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($12,800)252.6%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,300)66.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)7.4 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-40,755
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $293.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $290)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $293.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $287.10Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$287-293.90
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $293.90
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$290.00 (1.6ฯƒ)$360$-34,429+$6,296+$355
+2.5%$297.25 (1.8ฯƒ)$-365$-34,461+$6,264-$370
+5%$304.50 (2.0ฯƒ)$-1,090$-34,494+$6,231-$1,095
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (9.2ฯƒ)$-29,440$-35,770+$4,955-$15,645
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $616.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,725
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,159
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (1 ร— $290): -$32,334
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,900 (+$4,825 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,255 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,645, the opportunity cost of earning $1,543/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $352.12 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,852, position total $-34,708 (+$6,017 vs today)
▸๐ŸŽฏ 50% normal1 × $2756 Nov7d20.7%83%hist 86%36%hist 30%+5pp$570$2,443—$33,624
Sell 1 ร— $275 20.7% OTM over spot $227.84 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $6.10 mid)
= $570 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $2,443/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $275)
83%
Breach risk
17%
POP (stays โ‰ค $281.10)
86%
EV / mo
+$778
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
28% whole by 9mo vs 23% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$482/mo
median; plan ~$328/mo after 68% keep · $3,293 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.3-5.6], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
26%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,312
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$302 @ 77% POP
71% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $26.59/sh now โ†’ $18.82 mid-life (likely $19.75โ€“$30.98) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $5.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.12/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 768 simulated challenges: the $275 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $289 (overshoots $13.91). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$27727 Nov 202624d left+$3.70/sh+$370
cycle +$940
[-$4โ€ฆ+$624] ยท 74% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$35,075 NOT
cap gain +$5,650
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$27513 Nov 202610d left+$1.21/sh+$121
cycle +$691
[-$177โ€ฆ+$323] ยท 52% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$35,530 NOT
cap gain +$5,195
Max even-money escape in the band~$28727 Nov 202624d left+$0.94/sh+$94
cycle +$664
[-$319โ€ฆ+$305] ยท 43% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$34,396 NOT
cap gain +$6,329
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$27713 Nov 202610d left+$0.07/sh+$7
cycle +$577
[-$323โ€ฆ+$182] ยท 38% credit
68%
surv 55%
-$35,438 NOT
cap gain +$5,287
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$30220 Nov 202618d left-$5.57/sh-$557
cycle +$13
[-$1,090โ€ฆ-$468] ยท 10% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$33,615 NOT
cap gain +$7,110
budget: banked $570 debit $557 (98% used โ‰ˆ 1.0 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$13 cash ยท rolled 1 ct earn โ‰ˆ $2,208/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,443/mo
vs 50% target ($2,181/mo)+12%
vs normal income ($4,363/mo)56% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,932/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $275 is $342 below CC-SS $616.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$33,624
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($12,800)262.7%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,300)69.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)7.7 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-40,765
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.43/sh (~25% of the $5.70 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $281.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $275)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $293.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $272.25Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$272-281.10
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $281.10
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$275.00 (1.2ฯƒ)$570$-35,651+$5,074+$565
+2.5%$281.88 (1.4ฯƒ)$-118$-35,682+$5,043-$122
+5%$288.75 (1.6ฯƒ)$-805$-35,713+$5,012-$810
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (9.2ฯƒ)$-30,730$-37,060+$3,665-$16,935
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $616.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,725
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,159
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (1 ร— $275): -$33,624
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,190 (+$3,535 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,255 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,935, the opportunity cost of earning $2,443/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $352.12 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,142, position total $-35,998 (+$4,727 vs today)
▸100% normal1 × $252.506 Nov7d10.8%72%hist 83%61%hist 54%+5pp$1,060$4,543+$2,100$35,384
Sell 1 ร— $252.50 10.8% OTM over spot $227.84 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $11.45 mid)
= $1,060 credit for the 7d cycle โ†’ $4,543/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $252.50)
72%
Breach risk
28%
POP (stays โ‰ค $263.95)
78%
EV / mo
+$970
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
25% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~5.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$827/mo
median; plan ~$563/mo after 68% keep · $5,707 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.0-5.9], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
45%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$668
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$305 @ 85% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $24.42/sh now โ†’ $17.28 mid-life (likely $20.91โ€“$31.10) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $10.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.68/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,361 simulated challenges: the $252 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $266 (overshoots $13.22). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (1 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$25527 Nov 202624d left+$4.29/sh+$429
cycle +$1,489
[-$82โ€ฆ+$421] ยท 62% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$36,675 NOT
cap gain +$4,050
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$25213 Nov 202610d left+$1.74/sh+$174
cycle +$1,234
[-$226โ€ฆ+$163] ยท 38% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$37,136 NOT
cap gain +$3,589
Max even-money escape in the band~$26527 Nov 202624d left+$1.52/sh+$152
cycle +$1,212
[-$390โ€ฆ+$98] ยท 32% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$35,997 NOT
cap gain +$4,728
SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$25513 Nov 202610d left+$0.62/sh+$62
cycle +$1,122
[-$364โ€ฆ+$22] ยท 26% credit
69%
surv 56%
-$37,042 NOT
cap gain +$3,683
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$30527 Nov 202624d left-$10.05/sh-$1,005
cycle +$55
[-$1,920โ€ฆ-$1,226]
85%
surv 82%
-$33,333 NOT
cap gain +$7,392
budget: banked $1,060 debit $1,005 (95% used โ‰ˆ 1.0 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$55 cash ยท rolled 1 ct earn โ‰ˆ $905/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,543/mo
vs 50% target ($2,181/mo)+108%
vs normal income ($4,363/mo)104% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,032/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $252.50 is $364 below CC-SS $616.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$35,384
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($12,800)276.4%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($48,300)73.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)8.1 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)$-40,810
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.65/sh (~25% of the $10.60 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $263.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $252)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $293.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 โ†’ treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $249.97Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$250-263.95
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $263.95
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$252.50 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$1,060$-37,310+$3,415+$1,055
+2.5%$258.81 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$429$-37,338+$3,387+$424
+5%$265.12 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$-202$-37,367+$3,358-$208
SS (= V-bounce)$588.00 (9.2ฯƒ)$-32,490$-38,820+$1,905-$18,695
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $616.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,725
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,159
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (1 ร— $252.50): -$35,384
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,950 (+$1,775 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-20,255 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,695, the opportunity cost of earning $4,543/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (โ†’ $352.12 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,902, position total $-37,758 (+$2,967 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on APP are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (43 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 43 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ŸŽฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.955 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$37,159 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-20,255

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$2757d6 Nov 2026$5.701/1$570$2,443$1,93283%hist 86%36%hist 30%86%+$778-$33,624262.7%7.7mo$-37,190 (vs do-nothing $-16,935)
$272.507d6 Nov 2026$5.501/1$550$2,357$1,84782%hist 86%38%hist 30%85%+$535-$33,894264.8%7.8mo$-37,460 (vs do-nothing $-17,205)
$2707d6 Nov 2026$6.701/1$670$2,871$2,36181%hist 86%41%hist 40%84%+$881-$34,024265.8%7.8mo$-37,590 (vs do-nothing $-17,335)
$267.507d6 Nov 2026$6.501/1$650$2,786$2,27580%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$615-$34,294267.9%7.9mo$-37,860 (vs do-nothing $-17,605)
$2657d6 Nov 2026$7.201/1$720$3,086$2,57579%hist 83%46%hist 40%82%+$720-$34,474269.3%7.9mo$-38,040 (vs do-nothing $-17,785)
$262.507d6 Nov 2026$7.601/1$760$3,257$2,74777%hist 83%49%hist 40%81%+$682-$34,684271.0%7.9mo$-38,250 (vs do-nothing $-17,995)
$2607d6 Nov 2026$8.901/1$890$3,814$3,30476%hist 83%52%hist 44%81%+$1,015-$34,804271.9%8.0mo$-38,370 (vs do-nothing $-18,115)
$26014d13 Nov 2026$10.201/1$1,020$2,186$1,67575%hist 83%54%hist 44%80%+$539-$34,674270.9%7.9mo$-38,240 (vs do-nothing $-17,985)
$257.507d6 Nov 2026$8.601/1$860$3,686$3,17575%hist 83%55%hist 44%80%+$646-$35,084274.1%8.0mo$-38,650 (vs do-nothing $-18,395)
$257.5014d13 Nov 2026$10.201/1$1,020$2,186$1,67574%hist 83%57%hist 44%79%+$408-$34,924272.8%8.0mo$-38,490 (vs do-nothing $-18,235)
$2557d6 Nov 2026$9.801/1$980$4,200$3,69073%hist 83%58%hist 44%79%+$903-$35,214275.1%8.1mo$-38,780 (vs do-nothing $-18,525)
$25514d13 Nov 2026$11.701/1$1,170$2,507$1,99772%hist 83%60%hist 54%78%+$591-$35,024273.6%8.0mo$-38,590 (vs do-nothing $-18,335)
$252.507d6 Nov 2026$10.601/1$1,060$4,543$4,03272%hist 83%61%hist 54%78%+$970-$35,384276.4%8.1mo$-38,950 (vs do-nothing $-18,695)
Show 30 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$252.5014d13 Nov 2026$11.601/1$1,160$2,486$1,97571%hist 83%63%hist 54%78%+$422-$35,284275.7%8.1mo$-38,850 (vs do-nothing $-18,595)
$2507d6 Nov 2026$11.901/1$1,190$5,100$4,59070%hist 83%64%hist 54%77%+$1,233-$35,504277.4%8.1mo$-39,070 (vs do-nothing $-18,815)
$25014d13 Nov 2026$13.201/1$1,320$2,829$2,31869%hist 66%67%hist 54%77%+$610-$35,374276.4%8.1mo$-38,940 (vs do-nothing $-18,685)
$247.507d6 Nov 2026$11.501/1$1,150$4,929$4,41869%hist 66%68%hist 54%76%+$746-$35,794279.6%8.2mo$-39,360 (vs do-nothing $-19,105)
$247.5014d13 Nov 2026$13.101/1$1,310$2,807$2,29768%hist 66%70%hist 68%76%+$425-$35,634278.4%8.2mo$-39,200 (vs do-nothing $-18,945)
$2457d6 Nov 2026$13.401/1$1,340$5,743$5,23267%hist 66%72%hist 68%75%+$1,225-$35,854280.1%8.2mo$-39,420 (vs do-nothing $-19,165)
$24514d13 Nov 2026$13.801/1$1,380$2,957$2,44766%hist 66%74%hist 68%75%+$402-$35,814279.8%8.2mo$-39,380 (vs do-nothing $-19,125)
$24521d20 Nov 2026$16.401/1$1,640$2,343$1,83266%hist 66%75%hist 68%75%+$484-$35,554277.8%8.1mo$-39,120 (vs do-nothing $-18,865)
$242.507d6 Nov 2026$13.901/1$1,390$5,957$5,44765%hist 66%75%hist 68%74%+$1,082-$36,054281.7%8.3mo$-39,620 (vs do-nothing $-19,365)
$242.5014d13 Nov 2026$14.701/1$1,470$3,150$2,64065%hist 66%77%hist 68%74%+$413-$35,974281.0%8.2mo$-39,540 (vs do-nothing $-19,285)
$2407d6 Nov 2026$15.201/1$1,520$6,514$6,00463%hist 66%79%hist 68%74%+$1,259-$36,174282.6%8.3mo$-39,740 (vs do-nothing $-19,485)
$24014d13 Nov 2026$15.601/1$1,560$3,343$2,83263%hist 66%81%hist 79%73%+$414-$36,134282.3%8.3mo$-39,700 (vs do-nothing $-19,445)
$24021d20 Nov 2026$16.901/1$1,690$2,414$1,90463%hist 66%82%hist 79%73%+$296-$36,004281.3%8.3mo$-39,570 (vs do-nothing $-19,315)
$237.507d6 Nov 2026$14.801/1$1,480$6,343$5,83262%hist 66%83%hist 79%72%+$684-$36,464284.9%8.4mo$-40,030 (vs do-nothing $-19,775)
$237.5014d13 Nov 2026$16.501/1$1,650$3,536$3,02562%hist 66%85%hist 79%73%+$406-$36,294283.5%8.3mo$-39,860 (vs do-nothing $-19,605)
$2357d6 Nov 2026$17.101/1$1,710$7,329$6,81860%hist 70%88%hist 79%72%+$1,242-$36,484285.0%8.4mo$-40,050 (vs do-nothing $-19,795)
$23521d20 Nov 2026$19.501/1$1,950$2,786$2,27560%hist 70%89%hist 79%72%+$381-$36,244283.2%8.3mo$-39,810 (vs do-nothing $-19,555)
$23514d13 Nov 2026$17.401/1$1,740$3,729$3,21860%hist 70%88%hist 79%72%+$387-$36,454284.8%8.4mo$-40,020 (vs do-nothing $-19,765)
$232.5014d13 Nov 2026$18.401/1$1,840$3,943$3,43258%hist 70%92%hist 89%71%+$379-$36,604286.0%8.4mo$-40,170 (vs do-nothing $-19,915)
$232.507d6 Nov 2026$18.101/1$1,810$7,757$7,24758%hist 70%92%hist 89%71%+$1,217-$36,634286.2%8.4mo$-40,200 (vs do-nothing $-19,945)
$23028d27 Nov 2026$21.801/1$2,180$2,336$1,82557%hist 70%97%hist 89%71%+$244-$36,514285.3%8.4mo$-40,080 (vs do-nothing $-19,825)
$23021d20 Nov 2026$22.701/1$2,270$3,243$2,73257%hist 70%97%hist 89%70%+$525-$36,424284.6%8.3mo$-39,990 (vs do-nothing $-19,735)
$23014d13 Nov 2026$19.401/1$1,940$4,157$3,64756%hist 70%96%hist 89%70%+$361-$36,754287.1%8.4mo$-40,320 (vs do-nothing $-20,065)
$2307d6 Nov 2026$19.201/1$1,920$8,229$7,71856%hist 70%96%hist 89%70%+$1,211-$36,774287.3%8.4mo$-40,340 (vs do-nothing $-20,085)
$227.5014d13 Nov 2026$20.701/1$2,070$4,436$3,92555%hist 70%100%hist 89%69%+$396-$36,874288.1%8.5mo$-40,440 (vs do-nothing $-20,185)
$227.507d6 Nov 2026$20.001/1$2,000$8,571$8,06154%hist 70%100%hist 89%69%+$1,050-$36,944288.6%8.5mo$-40,510 (vs do-nothing $-20,255)
$22528d27 Nov 2026$26.001/1$2,600$2,786$2,27553%hist 70%100%hist 89%69%+$439-$36,594285.9%8.4mo$-40,160 (vs do-nothing $-19,905)
$22521d20 Nov 2026$22.901/1$2,290$3,271$2,76153%hist 70%100%hist 89%68%+$213-$36,904288.3%8.5mo$-40,470 (vs do-nothing $-20,215)
$22514d13 Nov 2026$23.601/1$2,360$5,057$4,54753%hist 70%100%hist 89%69%+$763-$36,834287.8%8.4mo$-40,400 (vs do-nothing $-20,145)
$2257d6 Nov 2026$21.401/1$2,140$9,171$8,66152%hist 70%100%hist 89%68%+$1,119-$37,054289.5%8.5mo$-40,620 (vs do-nothing $-20,365)
149 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$45021d20 Nov 2026$0.051/1$5$7$-50399+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$6-$16,689130.4%3.8mo$-20,255 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3957d6 Nov 2026$0.051/1$5$21$-48999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$18-$22,189173.3%5.1mo$-25,755 (vs do-nothing $-5,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40014d13 Nov 2026$0.101/1$10$21$-48999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$17-$21,684169.4%5.0mo$-25,250 (vs do-nothing $-4,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$41528d27 Nov 2026$0.101/1$10$11$-50099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$8-$20,184157.7%4.6mo$-23,750 (vs do-nothing $-3,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$42021d20 Nov 2026$0.151/1$15$21$-48999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$17-$19,679153.7%4.5mo$-23,245 (vs do-nothing $-2,990)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3807d6 Nov 2026$0.051/1$5$21$-48999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$12-$23,689185.1%5.4mo$-27,255 (vs do-nothing $-7,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39514d13 Nov 2026$0.151/1$15$32$-47899+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$27-$22,179173.3%5.1mo$-25,745 (vs do-nothing $-5,490)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3757d6 Nov 2026$0.051/1$5$21$-48999%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$9-$24,189189.0%5.5mo$-27,755 (vs do-nothing $-7,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40528d27 Nov 2026$0.201/1$20$21$-48999%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$17-$21,174165.4%4.9mo$-24,740 (vs do-nothing $-4,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3707d6 Nov 2026$0.051/1$5$21$-48999%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$5-$24,689192.9%5.7mo$-28,255 (vs do-nothing $-8,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$40021d20 Nov 2026$0.251/1$25$36$-47599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$26-$21,669169.3%5.0mo$-25,235 (vs do-nothing $-4,980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3657d6 Nov 2026$0.051/1$5$21$-48999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-0-$25,189196.8%5.8mo$-28,755 (vs do-nothing $-8,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$362.507d6 Nov 2026$0.051/1$5$21$-48999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-3-$25,439198.7%5.8mo$-29,005 (vs do-nothing $-8,750)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3607d6 Nov 2026$0.101/1$10$43$-46899%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$15-$25,684200.7%5.9mo$-29,250 (vs do-nothing $-8,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39028d27 Nov 2026$0.201/1$20$21$-48999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$12-$22,674177.1%5.2mo$-26,240 (vs do-nothing $-5,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37514d13 Nov 2026$0.101/1$10$21$-48999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$4-$24,184188.9%5.5mo$-27,750 (vs do-nothing $-7,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$39021d20 Nov 2026$0.251/1$25$36$-47599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$21-$22,669177.1%5.2mo$-26,235 (vs do-nothing $-5,980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3557d6 Nov 2026$0.251/1$25$107$-40399%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$72-$26,169204.4%6.0mo$-29,735 (vs do-nothing $-9,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38528d27 Nov 2026$0.301/1$30$32$-47899%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$20-$23,164181.0%5.3mo$-26,730 (vs do-nothing $-6,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37014d13 Nov 2026$0.151/1$15$32$-47899%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$9-$24,679192.8%5.7mo$-28,245 (vs do-nothing $-7,990)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3507d6 Nov 2026$0.201/1$20$86$-42599%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$44-$26,674208.4%6.1mo$-30,240 (vs do-nothing $-9,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38028d27 Nov 2026$0.351/1$35$37$-47399%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$22-$23,659184.8%5.4mo$-27,225 (vs do-nothing $-6,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$38021d20 Nov 2026$0.301/1$30$43$-46899%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$22-$23,664184.9%5.4mo$-27,230 (vs do-nothing $-6,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.507d6 Nov 2026$0.201/1$20$86$-42598%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$32-$26,924210.3%6.2mo$-30,490 (vs do-nothing $-10,235)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37528d27 Nov 2026$0.401/1$40$43$-46898%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$23-$24,154188.7%5.5mo$-27,720 (vs do-nothing $-7,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3457d6 Nov 2026$0.251/1$25$107$-40398%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$46-$27,169212.3%6.2mo$-30,735 (vs do-nothing $-10,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36014d13 Nov 2026$0.251/1$25$54$-45798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$17-$25,669200.5%5.9mo$-29,235 (vs do-nothing $-8,980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37021d20 Nov 2026$0.501/1$50$71$-43998%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$40-$24,644192.5%5.6mo$-28,210 (vs do-nothing $-7,955)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.507d6 Nov 2026$0.201/1$20$86$-42598%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$16-$27,424214.2%6.3mo$-30,990 (vs do-nothing $-10,735)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$37028d27 Nov 2026$0.501/1$50$54$-45798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$29-$24,644192.5%5.6mo$-28,210 (vs do-nothing $-7,955)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35014d13 Nov 2026$0.451/1$45$96$-41498%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$56-$26,649208.2%6.1mo$-30,215 (vs do-nothing $-9,960)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35514d13 Nov 2026$0.251/1$25$54$-45798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$9-$26,169204.4%6.0mo$-29,735 (vs do-nothing $-9,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3407d6 Nov 2026$0.351/1$35$150$-36098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$70-$27,659216.1%6.3mo$-31,225 (vs do-nothing $-10,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36528d27 Nov 2026$0.501/1$50$54$-45798%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$24-$25,144196.4%5.8mo$-28,710 (vs do-nothing $-8,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$337.507d6 Nov 2026$0.401/1$40$171$-33998%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$79-$27,904218.0%6.4mo$-31,470 (vs do-nothing $-11,215)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36021d20 Nov 2026$0.701/1$70$100$-41098%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$55-$25,624200.2%5.9mo$-29,190 (vs do-nothing $-8,935)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$347.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.351/1$35$75$-43598%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$16-$26,909210.2%6.2mo$-30,475 (vs do-nothing $-10,220)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$352.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.351/1$35$75$-43598%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$12-$26,409206.3%6.1mo$-29,975 (vs do-nothing $-9,720)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3357d6 Nov 2026$0.351/1$35$150$-36098%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$45-$28,159220.0%6.5mo$-31,725 (vs do-nothing $-11,470)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$36028d27 Nov 2026$0.901/1$90$96$-41497%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$60-$25,604200.0%5.9mo$-29,170 (vs do-nothing $-8,915)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$342.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.451/1$45$96$-41497%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$32-$27,399214.1%6.3mo$-30,965 (vs do-nothing $-10,710)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$332.507d6 Nov 2026$0.451/1$45$193$-31897%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$73-$28,399221.9%6.5mo$-31,965 (vs do-nothing $-11,710)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34014d13 Nov 2026$0.601/1$60$129$-38297%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$58-$27,634215.9%6.3mo$-31,200 (vs do-nothing $-10,945)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34514d13 Nov 2026$0.501/1$50$107$-40397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$31-$27,144212.1%6.2mo$-30,710 (vs do-nothing $-10,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35528d27 Nov 2026$0.951/1$95$102$-40997%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$57-$26,099203.9%6.0mo$-29,665 (vs do-nothing $-9,410)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3307d6 Nov 2026$0.701/1$70$300$-21097%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$163-$28,624223.6%6.6mo$-32,190 (vs do-nothing $-11,935)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$337.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.751/1$75$161$-35097%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$80-$27,869217.7%6.4mo$-31,435 (vs do-nothing $-11,180)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35021d20 Nov 2026$0.951/1$95$136$-37597%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$72-$26,599207.8%6.1mo$-30,165 (vs do-nothing $-9,910)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$327.507d6 Nov 2026$0.701/1$70$300$-21097%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$144-$28,874225.6%6.6mo$-32,440 (vs do-nothing $-12,185)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33514d13 Nov 2026$0.801/1$80$171$-33997%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$83-$28,114219.6%6.4mo$-31,680 (vs do-nothing $-11,425)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$35028d27 Nov 2026$0.851/1$85$91$-41997%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$36-$26,609207.9%6.1mo$-30,175 (vs do-nothing $-9,920)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3257d6 Nov 2026$0.851/1$85$364$-14696%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$187-$29,109227.4%6.7mo$-32,675 (vs do-nothing $-12,420)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$332.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.901/1$90$193$-31896%hist 95%8%hist 4%97%+$94-$28,354221.5%6.5mo$-31,920 (vs do-nothing $-11,665)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33014d13 Nov 2026$1.051/1$105$225$-28596%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$124-$28,589223.3%6.6mo$-32,155 (vs do-nothing $-11,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34528d27 Nov 2026$1.151/1$115$123$-38796%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$57-$27,079211.6%6.2mo$-30,645 (vs do-nothing $-10,390)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$322.507d6 Nov 2026$0.901/1$90$386$-12596%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$184-$29,354229.3%6.7mo$-32,920 (vs do-nothing $-12,665)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34021d20 Nov 2026$1.201/1$120$171$-33996%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$80-$27,574215.4%6.3mo$-31,140 (vs do-nothing $-10,885)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$327.5014d13 Nov 2026$1.101/1$110$236$-27596%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$112-$28,834225.3%6.6mo$-32,400 (vs do-nothing $-12,145)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3207d6 Nov 2026$1.001/1$100$429$-8296%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$200-$29,594231.2%6.8mo$-33,160 (vs do-nothing $-12,905)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$34028d27 Nov 2026$1.501/1$150$161$-35096%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$81-$27,544215.2%6.3mo$-31,110 (vs do-nothing $-10,855)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$32514d13 Nov 2026$1.251/1$125$268$-24396%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$135-$29,069227.1%6.7mo$-32,635 (vs do-nothing $-12,380)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$317.507d6 Nov 2026$1.151/1$115$493$-1895%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$218-$29,829233.0%6.8mo$-33,395 (vs do-nothing $-13,140)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33528d27 Nov 2026$1.651/1$165$177$-33495%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$81-$28,029219.0%6.4mo$-31,595 (vs do-nothing $-11,340)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33021d20 Nov 2026$1.551/1$155$221$-28995%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$96-$28,539223.0%6.5mo$-32,105 (vs do-nothing $-11,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3157d6 Nov 2026$1.301/1$130$557$4795%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$247-$30,064234.9%6.9mo$-33,630 (vs do-nothing $-13,375)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$317.5014d13 Nov 2026$1.701/1$170$364$-14694%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$180-$29,774232.6%6.8mo$-33,340 (vs do-nothing $-13,085)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$312.507d6 Nov 2026$1.451/1$145$621$11194%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$271-$30,299236.7%6.9mo$-33,865 (vs do-nothing $-13,610)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$33028d27 Nov 2026$1.851/1$185$198$-31294%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$84-$28,509222.7%6.5mo$-32,075 (vs do-nothing $-11,820)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31514d13 Nov 2026$1.801/1$180$386$-12594%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$181-$30,014234.5%6.9mo$-33,580 (vs do-nothing $-13,325)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3107d6 Nov 2026$1.601/1$160$686$17594%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$292-$30,534238.5%7.0mo$-34,100 (vs do-nothing $-13,845)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$32014d13 Nov 2026$1.501/1$150$321$-18994%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$76-$29,544230.8%6.8mo$-33,110 (vs do-nothing $-12,855)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$32528d27 Nov 2026$2.151/1$215$230$-28094%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$94-$28,979226.4%6.6mo$-32,545 (vs do-nothing $-12,290)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$32021d20 Nov 2026$2.301/1$230$329$-18293%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$150-$29,464230.2%6.8mo$-33,030 (vs do-nothing $-12,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$307.507d6 Nov 2026$1.751/1$175$750$24093%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$307-$30,769240.4%7.1mo$-34,335 (vs do-nothing $-14,080)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$312.5014d13 Nov 2026$1.901/1$190$407$-10393%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$158-$30,254236.4%6.9mo$-33,820 (vs do-nothing $-13,565)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3057d6 Nov 2026$2.001/1$200$857$34793%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$361-$30,994242.1%7.1mo$-34,560 (vs do-nothing $-14,305)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31014d13 Nov 2026$2.301/1$230$493$-1893%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$218-$30,464238.0%7.0mo$-34,030 (vs do-nothing $-13,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$32028d27 Nov 2026$2.801/1$280$300$-21093%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$138-$29,414229.8%6.7mo$-32,980 (vs do-nothing $-12,725)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31521d20 Nov 2026$2.401/1$240$343$-16892%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$131-$29,954234.0%6.9mo$-33,520 (vs do-nothing $-13,265)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.507d6 Nov 2026$2.101/1$210$900$39092%hist 95%17%hist 13%93%+$345-$31,234244.0%7.2mo$-34,800 (vs do-nothing $-14,545)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$307.5014d13 Nov 2026$2.151/1$215$461$-5092%hist 95%17%hist 13%93%+$158-$30,729240.1%7.0mo$-34,295 (vs do-nothing $-14,040)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31528d27 Nov 2026$2.801/1$280$300$-21092%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$109-$29,914233.7%6.9mo$-33,480 (vs do-nothing $-13,225)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30514d13 Nov 2026$2.501/1$250$536$2592%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$202-$30,944241.7%7.1mo$-34,510 (vs do-nothing $-14,255)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$3007d6 Nov 2026$2.401/1$240$1,029$51892%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$410-$31,454245.7%7.2mo$-35,020 (vs do-nothing $-14,765)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31021d20 Nov 2026$3.101/1$310$443$-6891%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$191-$30,384237.4%7.0mo$-33,950 (vs do-nothing $-13,695)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$302.5014d13 Nov 2026$2.601/1$260$557$4791%hist 95%19%hist 13%92%+$189-$31,184243.6%7.1mo$-34,750 (vs do-nothing $-14,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.507d6 Nov 2026$2.251/1$225$964$45491%hist 95%19%hist 13%92%+$275-$31,719247.8%7.3mo$-35,285 (vs do-nothing $-15,030)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$31028d27 Nov 2026$3.301/1$330$354$-15791%hist 95%20%hist 13%92%+$129-$30,364237.2%7.0mo$-33,930 (vs do-nothing $-13,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30014d13 Nov 2026$2.951/1$295$632$12290%hist 95%20%hist 23%91%+$227-$31,399245.3%7.2mo$-34,965 (vs do-nothing $-14,710)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30521d20 Nov 2026$3.101/1$310$443$-6890%hist 95%21%hist 23%91%+$145-$30,884241.3%7.1mo$-34,450 (vs do-nothing $-14,195)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2957d6 Nov 2026$2.651/1$265$1,136$62590%hist 95%21%hist 23%91%+$370-$31,929249.4%7.3mo$-35,495 (vs do-nothing $-15,240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.5014d13 Nov 2026$3.001/1$300$643$13290%hist 86%22%hist 23%91%+$197-$31,644247.2%7.3mo$-35,210 (vs do-nothing $-14,955)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30528d27 Nov 2026$3.701/1$370$396$-11490%hist 86%22%hist 23%91%+$133-$30,824240.8%7.1mo$-34,390 (vs do-nothing $-14,135)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.507d6 Nov 2026$2.801/1$280$1,200$69089%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$350-$32,164251.3%7.4mo$-35,730 (vs do-nothing $-15,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30021d20 Nov 2026$4.301/1$430$614$10489%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$262-$31,264244.2%7.2mo$-34,830 (vs do-nothing $-14,575)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29514d13 Nov 2026$3.401/1$340$729$21889%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$238-$31,854248.9%7.3mo$-35,420 (vs do-nothing $-15,165)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2907d6 Nov 2026$3.601/1$360$1,543$1,03289%hist 86%24%hist 23%90%+$603-$32,334252.6%7.4mo$-35,900 (vs do-nothing $-15,645)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$297.5021d20 Nov 2026$4.001/1$400$571$6188%hist 86%25%hist 23%90%+$189-$31,544246.4%7.2mo$-35,110 (vs do-nothing $-14,855)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$30028d27 Nov 2026$4.601/1$460$493$-1888%hist 86%25%hist 23%90%+$185-$31,234244.0%7.2mo$-34,800 (vs do-nothing $-14,545)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.5014d13 Nov 2026$3.901/1$390$836$32588%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$297-$32,054250.4%7.3mo$-35,620 (vs do-nothing $-15,365)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.507d6 Nov 2026$3.401/1$340$1,457$94788%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$418-$32,604254.7%7.5mo$-36,170 (vs do-nothing $-15,915)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29521d20 Nov 2026$4.201/1$420$600$9088%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$185-$31,774248.2%7.3mo$-35,340 (vs do-nothing $-15,085)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29014d13 Nov 2026$4.201/1$420$900$39087%hist 86%27%hist 23%89%+$309-$32,274252.1%7.4mo$-35,840 (vs do-nothing $-15,585)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$292.5021d20 Nov 2026$4.801/1$480$686$17587%hist 86%28%hist 23%89%+$235-$31,964249.7%7.3mo$-35,530 (vs do-nothing $-15,275)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2857d6 Nov 2026$4.001/1$400$1,714$1,20487%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$569-$32,794256.2%7.5mo$-36,360 (vs do-nothing $-16,105)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29528d27 Nov 2026$5.201/1$520$557$4787%hist 86%28%hist 23%89%+$198-$31,674247.4%7.3mo$-35,240 (vs do-nothing $-14,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.5014d13 Nov 2026$4.301/1$430$921$41187%hist 86%28%hist 23%88%+$273-$32,514254.0%7.5mo$-36,080 (vs do-nothing $-15,825)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29021d20 Nov 2026$5.301/1$530$757$24786%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$268-$32,164251.3%7.4mo$-35,730 (vs do-nothing $-15,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$282.507d6 Nov 2026$4.001/1$400$1,714$1,20486%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$453-$33,044258.2%7.6mo$-36,610 (vs do-nothing $-16,355)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28514d13 Nov 2026$5.001/1$500$1,071$56186%hist 86%30%hist 30%88%+$361-$32,694255.4%7.5mo$-36,260 (vs do-nothing $-16,005)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$29028d27 Nov 2026$5.901/1$590$632$12286%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$215-$32,104250.8%7.4mo$-35,670 (vs do-nothing $-15,415)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$287.5021d20 Nov 2026$5.201/1$520$743$23286%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$213-$32,424253.3%7.4mo$-35,990 (vs do-nothing $-15,735)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2807d6 Nov 2026$4.801/1$480$2,057$1,54785%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$672-$33,214259.5%7.6mo$-36,780 (vs do-nothing $-16,525)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$282.5014d13 Nov 2026$5.401/1$540$1,157$64785%hist 86%32%hist 30%87%+$380-$32,904257.1%7.5mo$-36,470 (vs do-nothing $-16,215)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28521d20 Nov 2026$6.201/1$620$886$37585%hist 86%33%hist 30%87%+$312-$32,574254.5%7.5mo$-36,140 (vs do-nothing $-15,885)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$277.507d6 Nov 2026$4.701/1$470$2,014$1,50484%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$494-$33,474261.5%7.7mo$-37,040 (vs do-nothing $-16,785)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28528d27 Nov 2026$6.301/1$630$675$16584%hist 86%35%hist 30%86%+$191-$32,564254.4%7.5mo$-36,130 (vs do-nothing $-15,875)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28014d13 Nov 2026$5.801/1$580$1,243$73284%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$393-$33,114258.7%7.6mo$-36,680 (vs do-nothing $-16,425)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$282.5021d20 Nov 2026$5.901/1$590$843$33284%hist 86%35%hist 30%86%+$221-$32,854256.7%7.5mo$-36,420 (vs do-nothing $-16,165)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$277.5014d13 Nov 2026$5.801/1$580$1,243$73283%hist 86%36%hist 30%85%+$315-$33,364260.7%7.6mo$-36,930 (vs do-nothing $-16,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28021d20 Nov 2026$7.301/1$730$1,043$53283%hist 86%37%hist 30%85%+$371-$32,964257.5%7.6mo$-36,530 (vs do-nothing $-16,275)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$28028d27 Nov 2026$7.601/1$760$814$30482%hist 86%38%hist 30%85%+$254-$32,934257.3%7.5mo$-36,500 (vs do-nothing $-16,245)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27514d13 Nov 2026$6.401/1$640$1,371$86182%hist 86%39%hist 30%85%+$360-$33,554262.1%7.7mo$-37,120 (vs do-nothing $-16,865)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$277.5021d20 Nov 2026$6.801/1$680$971$46182%hist 86%39%hist 30%85%+$245-$33,264259.9%7.6mo$-36,830 (vs do-nothing $-16,575)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27521d20 Nov 2026$7.801/1$780$1,114$60481%hist 86%41%hist 40%84%+$329-$33,414261.0%7.7mo$-36,980 (vs do-nothing $-16,725)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$272.5014d13 Nov 2026$6.801/1$680$1,457$94781%hist 86%41%hist 40%84%+$357-$33,764263.8%7.7mo$-37,330 (vs do-nothing $-17,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27528d27 Nov 2026$8.401/1$840$900$39080%hist 86%43%hist 40%84%+$254-$33,354260.6%7.6mo$-36,920 (vs do-nothing $-16,665)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$272.5021d20 Nov 2026$8.501/1$850$1,214$70480%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$367-$33,594262.4%7.7mo$-37,160 (vs do-nothing $-16,905)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27014d13 Nov 2026$7.701/1$770$1,650$1,14080%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$454-$33,924265.0%7.8mo$-37,490 (vs do-nothing $-17,235)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27021d20 Nov 2026$9.301/1$930$1,329$81879%hist 83%46%hist 40%83%+$415-$33,764263.8%7.7mo$-37,330 (vs do-nothing $-17,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$267.5014d13 Nov 2026$7.801/1$780$1,671$1,16179%hist 83%46%hist 40%82%+$373-$34,164266.9%7.8mo$-37,730 (vs do-nothing $-17,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$27028d27 Nov 2026$9.701/1$970$1,039$52978%hist 83%47%hist 40%82%+$295-$33,724263.5%7.7mo$-37,290 (vs do-nothing $-17,035)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$267.5021d20 Nov 2026$9.001/1$900$1,286$77578%hist 83%48%hist 40%82%+$301-$34,044266.0%7.8mo$-37,610 (vs do-nothing $-17,355)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26514d13 Nov 2026$8.701/1$870$1,864$1,35477%hist 83%49%hist 40%82%+$457-$34,324268.2%7.9mo$-37,890 (vs do-nothing $-17,635)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26521d20 Nov 2026$10.301/1$1,030$1,471$96177%hist 83%51%hist 44%81%+$411-$34,164266.9%7.8mo$-37,730 (vs do-nothing $-17,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$262.5014d13 Nov 2026$9.201/1$920$1,971$1,46176%hist 83%51%hist 44%81%+$448-$34,524269.7%7.9mo$-38,090 (vs do-nothing $-17,835)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26528d27 Nov 2026$10.301/1$1,030$1,104$59376%hist 83%52%hist 44%81%+$248-$34,164266.9%7.8mo$-37,730 (vs do-nothing $-17,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$262.5021d20 Nov 2026$9.901/1$990$1,414$90475%hist 83%53%hist 44%80%+$273-$34,454269.2%7.9mo$-38,020 (vs do-nothing $-17,765)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26021d20 Nov 2026$11.701/1$1,170$1,671$1,16174%hist 83%56%hist 44%80%+$444-$34,524269.7%7.9mo$-38,090 (vs do-nothing $-17,835)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$26028d27 Nov 2026$12.301/1$1,230$1,318$80774%hist 83%57%hist 44%80%+$338-$34,464269.2%7.9mo$-38,030 (vs do-nothing $-17,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$257.5021d20 Nov 2026$12.401/1$1,240$1,771$1,26173%hist 83%59%hist 44%79%+$453-$34,704271.1%8.0mo$-38,270 (vs do-nothing $-18,015)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25521d20 Nov 2026$13.101/1$1,310$1,871$1,36172%hist 83%62%hist 54%78%+$457-$34,884272.5%8.0mo$-38,450 (vs do-nothing $-18,195)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25528d27 Nov 2026$13.001/1$1,300$1,393$88271%hist 83%63%hist 54%78%+$273-$34,894272.6%8.0mo$-38,460 (vs do-nothing $-18,205)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$252.5021d20 Nov 2026$13.101/1$1,310$1,871$1,36170%hist 83%65%hist 54%77%+$355-$35,134274.5%8.1mo$-38,700 (vs do-nothing $-18,445)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25021d20 Nov 2026$14.701/1$1,470$2,100$1,59069%hist 66%68%hist 54%77%+$475-$35,224275.2%8.1mo$-38,790 (vs do-nothing $-18,535)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$25028d27 Nov 2026$15.401/1$1,540$1,650$1,14069%hist 66%69%hist 54%77%+$373-$35,154274.6%8.1mo$-38,720 (vs do-nothing $-18,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24528d27 Nov 2026$17.101/1$1,710$1,832$1,32266%hist 66%75%hist 68%75%+$380-$35,484277.2%8.1mo$-39,050 (vs do-nothing $-18,795)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$24028d27 Nov 2026$19.101/1$1,910$2,046$1,53663%hist 66%82%hist 79%74%+$401-$35,784279.6%8.2mo$-39,350 (vs do-nothing $-19,095)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$23528d27 Nov 2026$19.801/1$1,980$2,121$1,61160%hist 70%89%hist 79%72%+$263-$36,214282.9%8.3mo$-39,780 (vs do-nothing $-19,525)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 1 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-31 03:19