50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.36 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,550/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,500/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,325 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 44 × $17 | 77% | $4,290 | $924 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 40 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.1% | 83% | 35% | $680 | $2,550 | -$1,740 | $6,755 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $17.50 12.1% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.22 mid) = $680 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $17.71) 85% EV / mo +$511 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-689 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,729 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 736 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $17.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,527 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $17.50): -$6,755 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$1,899 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,451 (+$12,874 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$840, the opportunity cost of earning $2,550/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 45 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.1% | 83% | 35% | $765 | $2,869 | -$1,421 | $7,599 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $17.50 12.1% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.22 mid) = $765 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,869/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $17.71) 85% EV / mo +$575 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.1] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,198 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,945 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $19 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 751 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $18 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $17.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,527 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $17.50): -$7,599 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$949 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,346 (+$12,979 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$945, the opportunity cost of earning $2,869/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 44 × $17 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.9% | 77% | 35% | $1,144 | $4,290 | — | $9,234 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $17 8.9% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.29 mid) = $1,144 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $17.29) 81% EV / mo +$826 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $235 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,430 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.62–$0.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,046 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $2 below CC-SS $19.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $17.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,527 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $17): -$9,234 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$1,139 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,171 (+$11,154 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-880, the opportunity cost of earning $4,290/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 44 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.5% | 60% | 83% | $2,288 | $8,580 | +$4,290 | $12,490 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $16 2.5% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.55 mid) = $2,288 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $16.55) 71% EV / mo +$638 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~15.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,037 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$135 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $19 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.78/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,951 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $3 below CC-SS $19.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $16.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,527 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $16): -$12,490 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$1,139 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,427 (+$7,898 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,136, the opportunity cost of earning $8,580/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.147 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,527 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,291
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 44/50 | $4,290 | $2,342 | 77% | 81% | +$826 | -$9,234 | 29.5% | $-10,171 (vs do-nothing $-880) |
| $17 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 47/50 | $4,324 | $2,100 | 72% | 78% | +$682 | -$8,924 | 28.6% | $-9,291 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $16.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 32/50 | $4,320 | $3,476 | 70% | 76% | +$466 | -$7,996 | 25.6% | $-11,211 (vs do-nothing $-1,920) |
| $16.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 38/50 | $4,332 | $2,936 | 66% | 74% | +$344 | -$8,697 | 27.8% | $-10,773 (vs do-nothing $-1,482) |
| $16.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 43/50 | $4,280 | $2,424 | 65% | 74% | +$76 | -$9,153 | 29.3% | $-10,280 (vs do-nothing $-989) |
| $16 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 22/50 | $4,290 | $4,366 | 60% | 71% | +$319 | -$6,245 | 20.0% | $-11,359 (vs do-nothing $-2,068) |
| $16 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 29/50 | $4,292 | $3,724 | 59% | 70% | +$221 | -$7,594 | 24.3% | $-11,379 (vs do-nothing $-2,088) |
| $16 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 36/50 | $4,369 | $3,157 | 59% | 72% | $-72 | -$8,887 | 28.4% | $-11,343 (vs do-nothing $-2,052) |
| $15.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 28/50 | $4,315 | $3,839 | 53% | 68% | +$4 | -$7,640 | 24.4% | $-11,615 (vs do-nothing $-2,324) |
| $15.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 23/50 | $4,416 | $4,400 | 52% | 67% | +$167 | -$6,667 | 21.3% | $-11,591 (vs do-nothing $-2,300) |
| $15.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 17/50 | $4,526 | $5,062 | 50% | 65% | +$59 | -$5,353 | 17.1% | $-11,416 (vs do-nothing $-2,125) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.