50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.57 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,482/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $557/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 49 × $17 | 80% | $4,830 | $1,421 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 44 × $20 | 24 Jul | 7d | 28.4% | 98% | 5% | -9pp | $132 | $566 | -$4,264 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $20 28.4% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $132 credit for the 7d cycle → $566/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $20) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $20.04) 98% EV / mo +$404 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -9pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $437/mo median; plan ~$297/mo after 68% keep · $1,366 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,742 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $22 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.92/sh now → $0.65 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $20 is at/above CC-SS $19.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $20.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $20)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,930 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $20): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$1,278 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,098 (+$21,652 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$9,371, the opportunity cost of earning $566/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 24 Jul | 7d | 15.6% | 90% | 20% | -9pp | $550 | $2,357 | -$2,473 | $7,299 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 15.6% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $550 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,357/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 91% EV / mo +$1,228 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -9pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 75% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,019/mo median; plan ~$693/mo after 68% keep · $2,944 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,390 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 317 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,930 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$7,299 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,119 (+$15,631 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,350, the opportunity cost of earning $2,357/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 46 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.4% | 86% | 28% | -7pp | $736 | $3,154 | -$1,676 | $8,785 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $17.50 12.4% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $736 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,154/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $17.67) 88% EV / mo +$1,477 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -7pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,666/mo median; plan ~$1,133/mo after 68% keep · $5,458 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,893 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 530 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $17.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,930 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $17.50): -$8,785 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$852 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,457 (+$13,293 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,012, the opportunity cost of earning $3,154/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 49 × $17 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.1% | 80% | 29% | -8pp | $1,127 | $4,830 | — | $11,465 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $17 9.1% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $1,127 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,830/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $17.25) 84% EV / mo +$1,884 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -8pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,079/mo median; plan ~$1,414/mo after 68% keep · $6,800 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,594 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 877 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $17 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $17.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,930 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $17): -$11,465 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $17): -$213 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,498 (+$11,252 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,029, the opportunity cost of earning $4,830/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 46 × $16 | 24 Jul | 7d | 2.7% | 62% | 79% | -4pp | $2,254 | $9,660 | +$4,830 | $14,167 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $16 2.7% OTM over spot $15.57 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $2,254 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,660/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $16.52) 73% EV / mo +$2,266 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -4pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,577/mo median; plan ~$2,432/mo after 68% keep · $8,556 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$150 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,831 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $16.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,930 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $16): -$14,167 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17): -$852 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,839 (+$7,911 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,370, the opportunity cost of earning $9,660/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.148 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,930 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,469
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 49/50 | $4,830 | $4,367 | 80% | 84% | +$1,884 | -$11,465 | 36.7% | $-11,498 (vs do-nothing $-1,029) |
| $16.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 33/50 | $4,809 | $5,854 | 72% | 78% | +$1,534 | -$9,008 | 28.8% | $-12,449 (vs do-nothing $-1,980) |
| $17 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 50/50 | $4,786 | $4,229 | 71% | 78% | +$1,493 | -$9,499 | 30.4% | $-9,319 (vs do-nothing +$1,150) |
| $16.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 39/50 | $4,847 | $5,327 | 68% | 76% | +$1,142 | -$9,710 | 31.1% | $-11,873 (vs do-nothing $-1,404) |
| $16.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 43/50 | $4,853 | $4,956 | 66% | 75% | +$1,117 | -$9,803 | 31.4% | $-11,114 (vs do-nothing $-645) |
| $16.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 47/50 | $4,834 | $4,560 | 65% | 74% | +$990 | -$9,916 | 31.7% | $-10,375 (vs do-nothing +$94) |
| $16 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 23/50 | $4,830 | $6,819 | 62% | 73% | +$1,133 | -$7,084 | 22.7% | $-12,654 (vs do-nothing $-2,185) |
| $16 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 30/50 | $4,757 | $6,086 | 60% | 72% | +$845 | -$8,489 | 27.2% | $-12,569 (vs do-nothing $-2,100) |
| $16 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 35/50 | $4,850 | $5,707 | 59% | 71% | +$833 | -$9,099 | 29.1% | $-12,114 (vs do-nothing $-1,645) |
| $16 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 39/50 | $4,764 | $5,244 | 59% | 72% | +$807 | -$9,476 | 30.3% | $-11,639 (vs do-nothing $-1,170) |
| $15.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 32/50 | $4,800 | $5,940 | 53% | 69% | +$803 | -$8,543 | 27.3% | $-12,197 (vs do-nothing $-1,728) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 29/50 | $4,847 | $6,270 | 53% | 68% | +$607 | -$8,409 | 26.9% | $-12,702 (vs do-nothing $-2,233) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 24/50 | $4,937 | $6,831 | 52% | 68% | +$702 | -$7,464 | 23.9% | $-12,821 (vs do-nothing $-2,352) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 16/50 | $4,800 | $7,449 | 50% | 67% | +$777 | -$5,392 | 17.3% | $-12,453 (vs do-nothing $-1,984) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.