50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.13 | CC-SS: $19.85 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $71,250 | (ND $6.25 + SW $8) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,212/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $706/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 6d | 45 × $17 | 81% | $5,175 | $1,971 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 29 × $19 | 24 Jul | 6d | 21.8% | 96% | 8% | -11pp | $145 | $725 | -$4,450 | $2,314 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 29 × $19 21.8% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.06 mid) = $145 credit for the 6d cycle → $725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $19) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $19.05) 96% EV / mo +$516 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -11pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 81% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,182/mo median; plan ~$1,484/mo after 68% keep · $5,384 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,563 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 29 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.83/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 77 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $19 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $19 is $1 below CC-SS $19.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $19.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $19)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,291 − CC assignment net of premium (29 × $19): -$2,314 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (21 × $17): -$4,973 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,121 (+$17,004 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,553, the opportunity cost of earning $725/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $18 | 24 Jul | 6d | 15.3% | 91% | 18% | -12pp | $500 | $2,500 | -$2,675 | $8,740 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $18 15.3% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.11 mid) = $500 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.11) 92% EV / mo +$1,438 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -12pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 75% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $935/mo median; plan ~$636/mo after 68% keep · $2,609 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,289 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $20 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 267 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $18 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $18 is $2 below CC-SS $19.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $18.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,291 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $18): -$8,740 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,574 (+$15,551 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,100, the opportunity cost of earning $2,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 45 × $17.50 | 24 Jul | 6d | 12.1% | 87% | 27% | -11pp | $675 | $3,375 | -$1,800 | $9,891 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $17.50 12.1% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.16 mid) = $675 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $17.66) 89% EV / mo +$1,708 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -11pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,818/mo median; plan ~$1,237/mo after 68% keep · $7,723 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,765 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 478 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $18 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17.50 is $2 below CC-SS $19.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $17.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,291 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $17.50): -$9,891 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$1,184 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,909 (+$13,216 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$765, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 45 × $17 | 24 Jul | 6d | 8.9% | 81% | 27% | -8pp | $1,035 | $5,175 | — | $11,781 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $17 8.9% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.24 mid) = $1,035 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,175/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $17) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $17.24) 84% EV / mo +$2,270 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -8pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 79% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,591/mo median; plan ~$1,762/mo after 68% keep · $8,328 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,336 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $21 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 811 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $17 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $17 is $3 below CC-SS $19.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $17.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $17)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,291 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $17): -$11,781 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$1,184 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,799 (+$11,326 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,125, the opportunity cost of earning $5,175/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 42 × $16 | 24 Jul | 6d | 2.5% | 62% | 80% | -4pp | $2,058 | $10,290 | +$5,115 | $14,103 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $16 2.5% OTM over spot $15.61 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.51 mid) = $2,058 credit for the 6d cycle → $10,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $16.50) 73% EV / mo +$2,534 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -4pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~5.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,751/mo median; plan ~$2,550/mo after 68% keep · $10,582 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-2.9], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$24 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $20 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.50 mid-life (likely $0.65–$0.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,804 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $16 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $4 below CC-SS $19.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $16.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $16.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $19.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,291 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $16): -$14,103 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17): -$1,894 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,832 (+$8,293 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,674 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,158, the opportunity cost of earning $10,290/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.145 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,291 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,674
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 45/50 | $5,175 | $5,023 | 81% | 84% | +$2,270 | -$11,781 | 37.7% | $-12,799 (vs do-nothing $-1,125) |
| $17 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 47/50 | $5,206 | $4,833 | 74% | 79% | +$1,611 | -$11,129 | 35.6% | $-11,674 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $16.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 31/50 | $5,270 | $6,669 | 72% | 79% | +$1,833 | -$9,325 | 29.8% | $-13,658 (vs do-nothing $-1,984) |
| $16.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 37/50 | $5,208 | $5,943 | 67% | 75% | +$1,284 | -$10,130 | 32.4% | $-13,043 (vs do-nothing $-1,369) |
| $16.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 42/50 | $5,229 | $5,409 | 65% | 74% | +$1,150 | -$10,575 | 33.8% | $-12,304 (vs do-nothing $-630) |
| $16.50 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 46/50 | $5,213 | $4,951 | 64% | 74% | +$1,163 | -$10,709 | 34.3% | $-11,490 (vs do-nothing +$184) |
| $16 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 21/50 | $5,145 | $7,651 | 62% | 73% | +$1,267 | -$7,052 | 22.6% | $-13,753 (vs do-nothing $-2,079) |
| $16 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 29/50 | $5,220 | $6,840 | 60% | 71% | +$1,004 | -$8,897 | 28.5% | $-13,704 (vs do-nothing $-2,030) |
| $16 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 34/50 | $5,202 | $6,268 | 59% | 71% | +$971 | -$9,615 | 30.8% | $-13,238 (vs do-nothing $-1,564) |
| $16 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 39/50 | $5,200 | $5,713 | 59% | 72% | +$970 | -$10,327 | 33.0% | $-12,766 (vs do-nothing $-1,092) |
| $15.50 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.42 | 33/50 | $5,207 | $6,384 | 53% | 69% | +$829 | -$9,662 | 30.9% | $-13,522 (vs do-nothing $-1,848) |
| $15.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.22 | 28/50 | $5,124 | $6,855 | 52% | 68% | +$706 | -$8,758 | 28.0% | $-13,802 (vs do-nothing $-2,128) |
| $15.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 23/50 | $5,255 | $7,540 | 51% | 67% | +$748 | -$7,723 | 24.7% | $-13,951 (vs do-nothing $-2,277) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 15/50 | $5,250 | $8,421 | 49% | 67% | +$845 | -$5,472 | 17.5% | $-13,594 (vs do-nothing $-1,920) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.